A convergence of current and former NBA stars and comedians gather for UncleDrew, out next weekend. The sports comedy that comes with prosthetic makeup aplenty is based on a title character first seen in Pepsi commercials with Boston Celtics point guard Kyrie Irving playing him. Other basketball notables in the cast include Shaquille O’Neal, Reggie Miller, Chris Webber, Nate Robinson, and Lisa Leslie. On the funny side – Lil Rel Howery, Nick Kroll, Tiffany Haddish, J.B. Smoove, and Mike Epps. Charles Stone III, perhaps best known for making Drumline, directs.
UncleDrew hopes to bring in a sizable African-American crowd and lovers of the game it humorously covers. The pic could certainly achieve sleeper status with a gross in the high teens. It actually has a somewhat similar opening weekend range as Sicario: DayoftheSoldado, which debuts against it. The two newcomers should battle for third place between JurassicWorld: FallenKingdom and Incredibles2.
For now, I’m giving Drew a slight edge with a forecast between $16-$17 million.
UncleDrew opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million
For my Sicario: DayoftheSoldado prediction, click here:
Not your traditional summer sequel involving superheroes, dinosaurs or animated characters, Sicario: Day of the Soldado arrives in theaters next weekend and hopes to serve as counter programming to said seasonal blockbusters. The pic is a follow-up to 2015’s Sicario, Denis Villeneuve’s critically acclaimed crime thriller that garnered three Oscar nominations. Benicio del Toro and Josh Brolin (this summer’s reigning sequel king) reprise their roles from the original, though Emily Blunt does not appear (she’s been busy with A Quiet Place and Mary Poppins Returns). New costars include Isabela Moner, Jeffrey Donovan, Catherine Keener, and Matthew Modine. As for Villeneuve, he’s moved onto Arrival and Blade Runner 2049 and Italian director Stefano Sollima is now on board. The original’s screenwriter, Taylor Sheridan (who also is responsible for Hell or High Water and Wind River), is back penning this sequel.
Sicario opened in the fall of 2015 and its first wide release weekend brought in $12.1 million with an eventual gross of over $46 million domestically (it earned $85 million total worldwide against a reported budget of $30 million). Soldado may manage to slightly outpace that debut number of part 1 and a sequel is apparently already in the works. That premiere could put it in a battle for third place with the weekend’s other newcomers (Uncle Drew) and behind Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2.
Sicario: Day of the Soldado opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million
There’s only one new wide release this weekend, but it’s a big one as Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom stomps into multiplexes. The sequel to the 2015 record breaker hopes to hold onto a large chunk of its predecessor’s audience. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:
Jurassic World took in an astonishing $208 million three summers ago (which set the opening weekend record until Star Wars: The Force Awakens snatched it away six months later). Kingdom is not expected to match that performance. My estimate has decreased from an initial prediction of just over $155 million last week to just over $140 million.
Incredibles 2 broke its own records this past weekend by smashing the all-time animated feature debut (more on that below). With an A+ Cinemascore grade, the sequel to the 2004 Pixar superhero tale has turned into quite the event film. How much it dips in weekend #2 is an intriguing question. Looking at past sequels from the studio, 2010’s Toy Story 3 and 2016’s Finding Dory (the previous animated record holder) both fell 46%. Last summer’s Cars 3, which was a rare Pixar disappointment, fell a steeper 55%. It’s a legit question as to how front loaded Incredibles 2 is and whether it had a must-see factor in weekend #1. That said, repeat business could be strong even with the considerable dino competition. I’ll project a 48% drop, similar to 2017’s Beauty and the Beast.
Kingdom and Incredibles 2 will surely dominate the charts this weekend as Ocean’s 8 and Tag should be third and fourth, respectively. The five-spot could be a battle between Solo and Deadpool 2 and I’ll give Han a slight edge. And with that, my top 6 predictions for the frame ahead:
1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $140.4 million
2. Incredibles 2
Predicted Gross: $94.9 million
3. Ocean’s 8
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Tag
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
6. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (June 15-17)
As mentioned, Incredibles 2 was indeed incredible this weekend as it obliterated the all-time animated feature record. The well-reviewed sequel took in $182.6 million, smashing the numbers of Finding Dory by nearly $50 million. That figure is good for the 8th largest domestic debut in history and that ranks third for 2018 (behind Marvel behemoths Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther). It, um, did a little better than my $138.1 million forecast… oops.
Ocean’s 8 was second in its sophomore outing with $18.9 million, coming in below my $21.2 million estimate. The heist caper has made $78 million thus far.
Newcomer comedy Tag was third with $14.9 million, faring slightly better than my $13.4 million projection. The Warner Bros pic performed right in line with expectations.
Solo: A Star Wars Story placed fourth with $10 million (above my $8.4 million prediction) for $193 million total.
Deadpool 2 rounded out the top five with $8.6 million (I said $8.2 million) for $294 million overall.
Superfly debuted in sixth with $6.8 million and $9 million since its Wednesday roll out, managing to outpace my respective calls of $5.3 million and $7.2 million. I’d look for the crime remake to fade quickly.
Hereditary was seventh and it held up well for a horror release with $6.8 million (I said $6.3 million) to bring its two-week earnings to $27 million.
Blogger’s Note (06/15): I am revising my prediction down from $155.4 million to $140.4 million
Arriving three years after its predecessor set a series of box office records, JurassicWorld: FallenKingdom looks to flex its dino might next weekend. The fifth picture in the massive franchise that just turned 25 years old, Kingdom is the sequel to JurassicWorld and brings back Chris Pratt, Bryce Dallas Howard, and Jeff Goldblum (for the first time since 1997’s TheLostWorld). New cast members include Rafe Spall, Justice Smith, Daniella Pineda, James Cromwell, Toby Jones, and Ted Levine. J.A. Bayona takes over directorial duties from Colin Trevorrow.
The history of this franchise setting opening weekend milestones is significant. Steven Spielberg’s original in 1993 had the largest debut ever at $47 million a quarter century ago. TheLostWorld would achieve the same honor four years later with $72 million. And, of course, JurassicWorld stunned prognosticators in 2015 with $208 million out of the gate, which stood as the greatest premiere until StarWars: TheForceAwakens topped it six months later.
FallenKingdom will not and is not expected to break records. JurassicWorld seemed to have its stars aligned for a spectacular opening. It had been nearly a decade and a half since the previous installment and the nostalgia factor was off the charts. Mostly positive reviews didn’t hurt and Mr. Pratt was coming off a star making role in GuardiansoftheGalaxy.
Critical reaction is mixed. The sequel currently sits at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes (World got to 71%). The film is already out in a number of foreign markets and it earned $151 million worldwide over the weekend (a bit above expectations).
The stateside tracking for Kingdom is between $130-$150 million. My general feeling is that this franchise has continually exceeded expectations and may do so here, albeit not by much. JurassicWorld was a phenomenon while this is looked at as another summer sequel. It just happens to be one with a huge fan base who love returning to see these CG creatures.
JurassicWorld: FallenKingdom opening weekend prediction: $140.4 million
Pixar should easily rule the weekend and it may do so in record-breaking fashion as Incredibles 2 debuts. We also have the openings of comedy Tag and action remake Superfly. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the three of them here:
The computer animated superhero sequel arrives nearly 14 years ago after The Incredibles, but anticipation appears sky-high as part 2 looks to set a personal best for the massively successful studio. In order to accomplish that, Incredibles 2 would need to outdo the $135 million achieved out of the gate by Finding Dory two summers ago. My estimate gets it there by just over $3 million.
Tag could potentially serve as decent counter programming, but I’m not quite sold that it breaks out in a significant way. My lower teens projection places it firmly in third behind the sophomore weekend of Ocean’s 8 (which I see losing close to half its audience in weekend #2).
The 4-7 slots could be interesting to watch. One question mark is how Hereditary performs. The horror pic was a hit with critics and easily set an opening weekend record for studio A24. However, its Cinemascore audience grade was a dismal D+. That could mean a hefty sophomore decline. On the other hand, A24’s The Witch was saddled with a C- Cinemascore score and dropped just 42% in its second outing. I have Hereditary dropping over 50% and that should put it in 6th and that would be ahead of Superfly (as my prediction for it has steadily declined since my original post last week). As a reminder, Superfly debuts on Wednesday. That means the 4-5 spots should belong to Solo and Deadpool 2 (and it could be a dead heat between them).
And with that, let’s make it a top 7 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. Incredibles 2
Predicted Gross: $138.1 million
2. Ocean’s 8
Predicted Gross: $21.2 million
3. Tag
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
6. Hereditary
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
7. Superfly
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $7.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (June 8-10)
Ocean’s 8 got off to a healthy start and came in right in line with most expectations. The female led heist caper achieved the best debut of the franchise with $41.6 million. I was close with $42.6 million.
Solo: A Star Wars Story dropped to second with $15.7 million compared to my $14.3 million estimate. The three-week total is $176 million.
Deadpool 2 was third with $14.1 million (I said $13.2 million) to bring its four-week tally to $279 million.
Hereditary opened on the higher end of expectations in fourth with $13.5 million, topping my $10.2 million estimate. As mentioned, its negative audience reaction could serve as a hindrance for long-term viability.
Avengers: Infinity War rounded out the top 5 with $7.2 million (I said $6.7 million). The Marvel juggernaut is up to $655 million.
Adrift was sixth with $5.2 million and I was a touch higher at $6.1 million. The Shailene Woodley sailing drama has made $21 million in two weeks.
Finally, Hotel Artemis failed to generate many check-ins, opening in 8th place with $3.2 million (below my take of $5 million).
Superfly debuts in theaters this Wednesday and hopes to bring in a primarily African-American crowd with some other action fans mixed in. The film is a remake of the 1972 blaxploitation crime flick that starred Ron O’Neal. That early 70s effort is remembered more today for its killer soundtrack by soul legend Curtis Mayfield. This one has a soundtrack overseen by hip hop star Future. Its music influence includes its director who goes by Director X and he’s best known for shooting videos for Usher, Drake, Rihanna, and many others. The cast includes Trevor Jackson, Jason Mitchell, Michael Kenneth Williams, and Jennifer Morrison.
The success or failure of Superfly will certainly depend on the attendance of its intended audience. Younger crowds may not be familiar at all with its four decade old plus source material and that could provide a challenge. On the other hand, I’ve seen plenty of advertising – particularly during the NBA playoffs.
I’ll project this falls a under double digits for the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and struggles to catch double digits for the five day premiere.
Superfly opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $7.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Improbably based on a true story, the comedy Tag hits theaters next weekend. Based on a 2013 WallStreetJournal article, the film focuses on a group of pals who engage in a long-term version of the kids game. Stars include Ed Helms, Jeremy Renner, Jon Hamm, Jake Johnson, Isla Fisher, Annabelle Wallis, Hannibal Buress, Rashida Jones, Leslie Bibb, Brian Dennehy, and Lil Rel Howery. It marks the directorial debut of Jeff Tomsic.
The ads hype the “actually based on real stuff” angle, but I felt the trailer could’ve been a bit stronger. I’m not confident this holds any significant breakout potential. The Warner Bros release would likely love the achieve the $17 million debut of this spring’s GameNight and that might be the generous ceiling here. I’d say even with the cast of familiar faces, it doesn’t have the relative star power or laugh out loud promo materials. And I wouldn’t count Renner as this isn’t the genre he’s known for… see TheHouse from a year ago.
Outside of the Hangover franchise, Helms has had a rough road recently as FatherFigures was a dud and even his Vacation reboot fell a bit shy of $60 million three summers back. I’ll project this reaches low double digits to mid teens for a so-so showing. As we await the blockbuster comedic pic of this season, I have a hunch Tag is not it.
Disney/Pixar is back on the summer scene as Incredibles 2 blasts into theaters next weekend. The superhero comedy sequel is the follow-up to the studio’s sixth blockbuster that opened in November 2004. Fourteen years later, this is Pixar’s 20th assured mega grosser. Brad Bird, who made the original, is back in the director’s seat after shepherding live-action pics Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol and Tomorrowland. Returning voices from the original cast include Craig T. Nelson, Holly Hunter, Samuel L. Jackson, Sarah Vowell, and John Ratzenberger. Fresh voices for part 2 include Jonathan Banks, Bob Odenkirk, Catherine Keener, Isabella Rossellini, and Sophia Bush.
The question mark here is not whether Incredibles 2 is another huge hit for Pixar (it will be). Rather, the question is whether it sets the all-time opening record for the Mouse Factory’s multi-billion dollar subsidiary. In order to do so, it would need to surpass the current one held by 2016’s Finding Dory. That sequel earned $135 million in the same weekend two summers ago.
For some context, the predecessor to Dory (2003’s Finding Nemo) made $70 million out of the gate with an eventual gross of $339 million. As for the first Incredibles? It did exactly the same in its first weekend ($70 million) and went on to earn $261 million domestically. Of course, most Pixar titles take on long shelf lives and introduce themselves to a new generation of youngsters. The Incredibles is no exception and stands as one of the most appreciated studio offerings.
I see no reason why Incredibles 2 wouldn’t perform very similarly to Dory. That said, I’m reluctant to project that it will get to $150 million plus or anything in that stratosphere. I’ll say this just manages to achieve a personal Pixar high. In doing so, just as Nemo and Incredibles got to the same number in weekend 1, so essentially will the sequels.
Incredibles 2 opening weekend prediction: $138.1 million
A trio of new titles open wide at the box office this weekend as the unremarkable two-week reign of Solo: A Star Wars Story looks to close. They are the reboot of heist caper franchise Ocean’s 8 with Sandra Bullock and other notable actresses, critically acclaimed horror pic Hereditary, and crime thriller Hotel Artemis. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
My low 40s opening for Ocean’s 8 easily puts it in the #1 spot. That estimate gives it the largest debut for the franchise that’s been dormant for over a decade when George Clooney, Matt Damon, Brad Pitt, and others had their trilogy.
The biggest question mark of the weekend to me is undoubtedly Hereditary. Reviews have been terrific, but critical praise doesn’t always equate to major dollars for this genre. Two similarly heralded entries from the same studio – The Witch and It Comes at Night – made less than $10 million out of the gate. Hereditary could potentially suffer the same fate, but I’ve got it pegged to manage low double digits. If the pic over performs, it could nab the #2 spot. If it hits in the range I’m projecting, it would be fourth behind Solo and Deadpool 2.
Adrift premiered right in line with my expectations and it may find itself in a close race with Avengers: Infinity War for the fifth slot. I’m giving the superheroes an edge.
As for Hotel Artemis, I’m not expecting much and my forecast has gone from $7.7 million to now $5 million over the course of the last week. That number puts it outside the top five.
And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. Ocean’s 8
Predicted Gross: $42.6 million
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
3. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Hereditary
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
5. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
6. Adrift
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
Box Office Results (June 1-3)
All eyes were on how Solo: A Star Wars Story would perform in its second weekend after a majorly lackluster premiere. The verdict? Not good. The Star Wars stand-alone fell a precipitous 65% to $29.3 million, well behind my $37.3 million estimate. The two-week tally stands at $148 million.
Deadpool 2 was second with $23.1 million in weekend #3, topping my $20.9 million projection for $254 million total.
Newcomer Adrift was right in line with my take – placing third at $11.6 million (I said $11.7 million).
Avengers: Infinity War was fourth with $10.5 million, ahead of my $8.6 million projection for $643 million in its considerable coffers.
Book Club rounded out the top five and I didn’t have it in there. It earned $7 million and sits at $47 million overall.
Blumhouse’s Upgrade exceeded my prediction with $4.6 million. I was lower at $2.8 million. The well reviewed sci-fi horror flick’s number is pretty decent considering its meager budget and low 1400 plus theater count.
Last and indeed least, Johnny Knoxville’s Action Point was a complete dud coming in at 9th place with a measly $2.3 million (well below my $6.6 million guesstimate). I wrote about its failure yesterday here:
Global Road Entertainment is hoping audiences check into the Hotel Artemis when it debuts next weekend. The futuristic action flick comes from Drew Pearce in his directorial debut (he’s best known for co-writing Iron Man 3). Focusing on an underground hospital for the criminal element, Artemis stars Jodie Foster (in her first film appearance in five years) alongside Sterling K. Brown, Sofia Boutella, Jeff Goldblum, Brian Tyree Henry, Jenny Slate, Zachary Quinto, Charlie Day, and Dave Bautista.
The biggest hurdle for Artemis looks to be if general audiences are even aware of its existence. It seems the marketing campaign has been a bit low-key. Competition is a factor as Hereditary (while a horror pic) could be competing for a similar crowd. Reviews if they’re positive (none yet) could help a bit, but I’ll project there’s a significant amount of vacancy for its showings.
Hotel Artemis opening weekend prediction: $5 million
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