Just so there’s zero confusion, it’s not MartinScorsese’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral debuting next weekend. No, this would be the latest Tyler Perry effort from the writer/director/star and it’s said to be the final pic with the Madea moniker.
Originally slated to open last fall, Funeral looks to bring in Perry’s consistent crowd one more time. It’s likely to succeed. Let’s take a trip down Madea memory lane with the premiere weekends of each one featuring that name:
Madea’sFamilyReunion (2006) – $30 million
MadeaGoestoJail (2009) – $41 million
Madea’sBigHappyFamily (2011) – $25 million
Madea’sWitnessProtection (2012) – $25 million
AMadeaChristmas (2013) – $16 million
Boo! AMadeaHalloween (2016) – $28 million
Boo2! AMadeaHalloween (2017) – $21 million
Christmas is a bit of an outlier since it came out in the bustling holiday frame when titles often open somewhat low and leg out. A common theme with this franchise is front loaded first weekends that frequently represent nearly half the overall domestic gross.
I see no reason why Funeral wouldn’t top $20 million out of the gate and I’ll put it in range with what Boo2! achieved, going a tad higher.
Todd Thatcher’s A TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral opening weekend prediction: $22.8 million
Two notable entries enter the box office derby this weekend as comedy sequel Daddy’s Home 2 with Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg and Kenneth Branagh’s Agatha Christie adapted remake Murder on the Orient Express. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:
Neither newbie is likely to come anywhere near dislodging Thor: Ragnarok from a second weekend atop the charts. The critically acclaimed threequel is probably looking at a drop in the mid to possibly high 50s, which is par for the course for most MCU sequels.
The biggest question of the weekend is whether Home or Express nabs the #2 spot. Knowing that comedy sequels often under perform their predecessors (that happened just this past weekend), I’ve got Murder edging out Daddy’s for the runner-up position.
A Bad Moms Christmas should drop to fourth with Jigsaw rounding out the top five.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. Thor: Ragnarok
Predicted Gross: $53.8 million (representing a drop of 56%)
2. Murder on the Orient Express
Predicted Gross: $24.6 million
3. Daddy’s Home 2
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
4. A Bad Moms Christmas
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 48%)
5. Jigsaw
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million (representing a drop of 57%)
Box Office Results (November 3-5)
Thor: Rangarok easily posted the highest debut in its particular franchise and the 7th largest Marvel Cinematic Universe opening with $122.7 million, topping my $107.6M forecast. Terrific word-of-mouth certainly contributed to it opening nearly $40 million above its predecessor Thor: The Dark World.
A Bad Moms Christmas had an unimpressive debut in second with $16.7 million over the traditional three-day weekend. I was a bit higher at $18.7 million. The sequel opened on Wednesday and has taken in $21.2 million since then. Again, that’s below my projection of $26.2 million. It failed in five days to earn the $23.8 million accomplished by its predecessor in summer 2016.
Jigsaw dropped to third with $6.5 million compared to my $5.9 million estimate. The horror pic has grossed $28 million so far.
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween was fourth with $4.5 million (I said $4.1 million) for a $42 million overall tally.
Geostorm rounded out the top five with $3.1 million (I went with $2.7 million) for $28 million total.
The month of November looks to awaken a sleepy box office with the release of two high-profile sequels: Marvel’s threequel Thor: Ragnarok and comedic follow-up A Bad Moms Christmas. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
As I see it, Ragnarok is likely to be the first pic in the Thor franchise that reaches over $100 million in its first weekend. With very positive reviews and a strong international debut over the weekend, all the signs are there.
A Bad Moms Christmas opens on Wednesday to give it some breathing room from the Marvel Cinematic Universe juggernaut and I have it earning mid 20s for the five-day and high teens for the traditional three-day.
The rest of the top five should see low grosses from holdovers. Jigsaw had a mediocre debut atop the charts over Halloween weekend (more on that below) and looks to suffer a large decline in its sophomore frame. Boo 2! and Geostorm (or perhaps even Happy Death Day if Geostorm has a large enough decline) should fill the rest of the slots.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. Thor: Ragnarok
Predicted Gross: $107.6 million
2. A Bad Moms Christmas
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $26.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Jigsaw
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 64%)
4. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million (representing a drop of 59%)
5. Geostorm
Predicted Gross: $2.7 million (representing a drop of 55%)
Box Office Results (October 27-29)
It was expected to be a slow weekend and it certainly was that with the #1 movie doing just OK and other newbies performing even worse. Jigsaw managed a #1 debut with $16.6 million (a bit ahead of my $14.8 million prediction). That’s the second lowest of the eight features in the Saw franchise.
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween dropped to second with $10 million (I went higher at $12.2 million) to bring its two-week tally to $35 million.
Geostorm was third with $5.9 million (I said $5.4 million) to bring its lackluster total to $23 million.
Happy Death Day was fourth with $5 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. The low-budget Blumhouse horror pic brought its solid total to $48 million.
I also whiffed on having Blade Runner 2049 outside the top 5 (thanks under performing newcomers). It earned $4.1 million for an overall gross of $81 million.
Thank You for Your Service, the Miles Teller war drama, underwhelmed in sixth place with $3.8 million, under my $5.4 million forecast. Mostly solid reviews couldn’t get audiences interested enough in this case.
Last (and certainly least in this case), Suburbicon was an absolute disaster, opening in 9th place with just $2.8 million. I was considerably higher at $7.3M. George Clooney’s poorly reviewed crime comedy with Matt Damon stands as one of the worst wide performers of the year.
Before an onslaught of high-profile November titles hit the market, October should close out rather quietly at the box office in this Halloween weekend. There are three new entries making their wide debuts: continuation of the Saw franchise Jigsaw, the Matt Damon starring/George Clooney directed crime comedy Suburbicon, and Miles Teller war drama Thank You for Your Service. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions posts on each here:
There are numerous factors that may contribute to this weekend being a slow one. The last frame of October is typically pretty ho-hum regardless. There’s also the matter of a little Netflix show called Stranger Things premiering that could divert eyeballs onto the small screen and not the large one.
The seven year lay-off between Saw pictures could cause a muted debut for Jigsaw. Its number should still be enough to nab the #1 spot, however. Boo 2! should slip to second. It’s worth noting that the original Boo dropped just 39% in its sophomore outing last year over the same Halloween weekend. I have this dipping just a bit more.
I’m not expecting much from Suburbicon or Service and they could end up in a close race with the second weekend of Geostorm (which I expect to have a big drop).
Bottom line: Thor: Ragnarok and A Bad Moms Christmas should awaken the charts when November comes and here are my top 5 projections for this weekend:
1. Jigsaw
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million
2. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million (representing a drop of 42%)
3. Suburbicon
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
4. Geostorm
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 60%)
5. Thank You for Your Service
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (October 20-22)
As expected, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween topped the charts with $21.2 million, a tad under my $22.6 million prediction. It falls about $7 million short of its predecessor one year ago, but marks the sixth Madea feature to open #1.
Geostorm ranked highest among the five debuts with $13.7 million, above my $11.2M projection. However, with its massive reported $120 million budget, this is a serious flop for Warner Bros.
Happy Death Day dropped to third with $9.3 million, below my $11.8M take to bring its two-week total to $40 million. With only a $5 million budget, this is quite the cash cow for Blumhouse.
Blade Runner 2049 was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. In weekend #3, it earned $7.3 million to bring its disappointing tally to $74 million.
Opening in fifth was the firefighter drama Only the Brave with a meager $6 million, which is on the low-end of expectations and well below my generous $10 million projection.
The Snowman with Michael Fassbender got a chilly reception from audiences in 8th place with just $3.3 million, way below my $8 million forecast.
Lastly, Same Kind of Different as Me flopped in 12th place, opening to $2.5 million. I was right on target with my $2.6 million estimate.
Blogger’s Update (10/19): Making some further adjustments. Boo 2! from $23.8M to $22.6M, Only the Brave from the $12.3M to $10M, and Geostorm from $11.6M to $11.2M.
Blogger’s Update (10/18): I am revising some predictions. I now have Happy Death Day falling over 50% for a third place showing and am estimating The Snowman from $10.8 million to $8 million.
We have an extremely busy weekend ahead with four new pictures looking to join the top five. They are the Tyler Perry holiday themed sequel Boo2! AMadeaHalloween, firefighter drama OnlytheBrave, disaster action flick Geostorm, and Michael Fassbender thriller TheSnowman. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
While I don’t have Boo2! earning quite as much as its predecessor from last October, it shouldn’t have much trouble debuting at #1 as Perry’s fan base should show up.
It’s the 2-5 spots that could be really interesting. Current champ HappyDeathDay scored a terrific debut and may not even fall 50% due to the Halloween proximity and decent buzz.
OnlytheBrave is receiving positive reviews and I’m forecasting it will premiere slightly above both Geostorm and TheSnowman. All in all, I only have $3.1 million separating the runner-up to first place and the five spot.
There is one other debut as the Pure Flix feature SameKindofDifferentasMe with Greg Kinnear and Renee Zellweger opens on a fairly low 1250 screens. I don’t expect much from it and I’ll estimate a $2.6 million take.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Boo2! AMadeaHalloween
Predicted Gross: $22.6 million
2. HappyDeathDay
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)
Friday the 13th was a lucky day and it was a lucky weekend for HappyDeathDay, the latest hit from Blumhouse. The well-reviewed horror pic scared up a sizzling $26 million compared to my $20.6M projection, more than five times its tiny budget. With Split and GetOut having scored megabucks earlier this year for its studio, Blumhouse has announced itself as the premiere distributor for these genre titles.
BladeRunner 2049 dropped to second with $15.4 million. My prediction? $15.4 million! The sci fi epic sequel’s disappointing earnings sit at $60 million.
Jackie Chan’s TheForeigner opened at the greater end of expectations with a sturdy $13.1 million, easily eclipsing my $8.8M prediction.
It was fourth with $6 million. My prediction? $6 million! It’s made $314 million.
TheMountainBetweenUs rounded out the top five with $5.7 million. My prediction? $5.7 million! Its two week total is $20 million. So I’ll give myself a pat on the back for my holdover guesses this weekend!
Lastly, the Chadwick Boseman biopic Marshall opened rather quietly in 11th place with $3 million (I was a bit higher at $4M).
OnlytheBrave opens next weekend and it stands the best shot at being the second highest grosser of the five newbies hitting screens after Boo2! AMadeaHalloween. Joseph Kosinski, director of Tron: Legacy and Oblivion, is behind the lens for this true-life action/drama focused on a crew taking on devastating wildfires. Josh Brolin, Miles Teller, Jeff Bridges, James Badge Dale, Taylor Kitsch, Jennifer Connelly, and Andie MacDowell are among the cast.
There will some competition for adults and action fans with premieres like TheSnowman and Geostorm. However, Brave could have a minor leg up with its solid reviews and the unfortunate timeliness of its storyline.
I’ll say a debut at $10 million is probable.
OnlytheBrave opening weekend prediction: $10 million
For my Boo2! AMadeaHalloween prediction, click here:
Tyler’s Perry Madea character looks to say hello to the #1 spot again next weekend when Boo 2! A Madea Halloween debuts. As is the case with these ventures, the star both directs and writes. Costars include Cassi Davis and Patrice Lovely.
On this same weekend last year, A Madea Halloween opened a bit above expectations with $28 million, ruling the box office for two weeks and grossing $73 million overall. The uptick was a bit of a surprise since the previous holiday themed pic A Madea Christmas earned the lowest opening ($16M) of the six flicks carrying the Madea moniker and lowest overall domestic gross ($52M).
Last October proved audiences still had love for the character and I don’t see that subsiding much here. Sequelitis may come into small effect, but a smallish decline of close to 20% under its predecessor still gets this in the low to mid 20s and that should be good enough for the top spot.
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million
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