It wasn’t just the Screen Actors Guild revealing their list of nominees today as the Directors Guild of America (DGA) put out the five filmmakers vying for their top prize.
First things first. The three pictures that I believe have the best shot at taking BP at the Oscars all saw their conductors brought to this stage. That would be the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans). This trio were all obvious ones to predict and that I did.
Yet I ultimately went 3 for 5. That’s because my picks of James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) and Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), makers of two popular commercial moneymakers, were left on the cutting room floor. Instead we got the surprising selection of Joseph Kosinski, maker of the year’s biggest moneymaker domestically with Top Gun: Maverick. I’ve only had Kosinski in my top 10 possibilities for the Academy on a couple of occasions. He’s never been in my high five.
The directing category at the Oscars usually match DGA on a 4 for 5 accuracy scale. You have to go back to 2009 to find the last time they matched 5 for 5. In other words, I wouldn’t rush to put Kosinski in the quintet.
My other miss was Todd Field, conductor of Tár. His inclusion was more anticipated and I had him as my runner-up.
Assuming we don’t get a total match, what’s the state of the Academy competition? The Daniels and McDonagh and Spielberg (despite the BAFTA snub) are probably safe and Field seems right up the Academy’s alley.
The fifth slot, while it could be Kosinski, is still available for Cameron or Luhrmann. Charlotte Wells (Aftersun) is beginning to get some ink. And we could absolutely still see a foreign director slide in like Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front. Longer shots in that vein are S.S. Rajamouli (RRR) and Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave).
Who got hurt by being left out today? Certainly Sarah Polley for Women Talking and Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness. Either one of them could have used this as a momentum boost. Same for Babylon‘s Damien Chazelle.
The DGA’s will be presented on February 18th and my winning projection will be made shortly beforehand.
The morning after The Banshees of Inisherin beat Everything Everywhere All at Once for Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) at the Golden Globes, the two BP Oscar hopefuls tied for most nominations from the Screen Actors Guild voters. The Globes Drama winner The Fabelmans, meanwhile, had a more disappointing showing including one particular unexpected omission.
We are in the thick of awards season and I’m pretty pleased to report I went 25/30 on my SAG picks! Let’s walk through the six competitions with how I did and some general analysis. Final predictions for this ceremony will come closer to the February 26th airdate.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Women Talking
How I Did: 4/5
I went with The Woman King over the sprawling cast of Babylon. I’ll admit I was feeling a bit bold picking Women Talking after a subpar season, but it managed to make the cut while none of its performers garnered individual noms.
It doesn’t turn out this way in most years at SAG, but this prize may well come down to the three movies mostly likely to take the Oscar BP: Banshees, EEAAO, and Fabelmans.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 4/5
There are two headlines here in my opinion. The first is that Michelle Williams did not get in for The Fabelmans. Most prognosticators, including this one, have her sitting in 3rd for the Academy rankings.
Another is that Ana de Armas has made it for the Globes and SAG. A few weeks ago, her work as Marilyn Monroe in Blonde had fallen out of my top 10 possibilities. Now she is a serious threat for the Oscar quintet. I had Williams over de Armas projected.
As for the winner – this should come down to Blanchett v. Yeoh (both freshly minted Globe recipients).
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Bill Nighy (Living), Adam Sandler (Hustle)
How I Did: 4/5
SAG news other the nominees themselves was made today when it was announced that Netflix will livestream the show starting next year. It was also an unexpectedly solid morning for the streamer. In this race, the surprise inclusion was Adam Sandler for Hustle (which premiered on the subscription service). I had Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) forecasted instead.
It’s worth noting that Cruise has now missed Globe and SAG. For the former, it was easy to explain considering he had a highly publicized break with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. No such explanation is found with SAG. His chances for Oscar are shaky.
The dynamics of this derby are intact. Butler, Farrell, Fraser, and Nighy appear to be safe bets for Academy attention. The fifth spot is wide open and Sandler got some exposure this morning. As for a winner at SAG, it’s a three-person fight between Butler, Farrell, and Fraser.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
How I Did: 4/5
Bassett, Condon, and Curtis are the trio who’ve landed in all major precursors thus far. Jamie Lee’s costar Hsu makes it in over my pick of Jessie Buckley (Women Talking).
The Golden Globes honored Bassett last night and she could absolutely snag this trophy. However, I’m less convinced she sweeps than the chances of a sweep in Supporting Actor (more on that below). Let’s see if Condon or Curtis, especially, make it interesting.
A quick Women Talking comment. Even though Buckley or Claire Foy (who’s received nothing so far) are mostly or totally MIA, I still could see the Academy putting one of them up. We saw that they can throw a curveball in this race (Judi Dench in Belfast last year).
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
The Nominees: Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
After viewing Quan’s heartfelt remarks at Globes, it seems like a sweep is in the cards. My one perfect category means Redmayne has landed Globe and SAG love. The Academy could still leave him out and same goes for Dano. We’ll see if alternates like Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), or Globe nominee Brad Pitt (Babylon) can sneak in.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King
How I Did: 4/5
Avatar got in over my call of Everything Everywhere All at Once (YOU try being a stuntman waving those hot dog fingers!). The original Black Panther won in 2018 so perhaps the sequel will follow suit. Another sequel (Maverick) may prevent that.
That works out to the following number of SAG mentions for these pics:
5 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Fabelmans, The Whale, The Woman King
1 Nomination
Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Batman, Blonde, Elvis, The Good Nurse, Hustle, Living, Tár, Till, Top Gun: Maverick
Eddie Murphy, winner of tonight’s Cecil B. DeMille lifetime achievement, might have had the best timed Will Smith Oscar slap joke I’ve heard thus far (better than that of host Jerrod Carmichael). Mr. Murphy being funny was not a surprise. And there weren’t a whole lotta surprises for the cinematic victors at the 80th Golden Globes Awards… with a couple of exceptions.
I went 10/14 on my picks, but two of those misses happened to be the biggest prizes of all. After being snubbed for the shortlist of 16 filmmakers for BAFTA’s directing award, Steven Spielberg and his autobiographical The Fabelmans had an impressive and perhaps needed showing this evening. He won Best Director (which I did predict) and he capped the night by taking Best Motion Picture – Drama. I didn’t predict that as I went with Elvis instead.
The picture with tonight’s best showing was The Banshees of Inisherin at three podium trips. As expected, Colin Farrell was named Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy and Martin McDonagh took Best Screenplay. Banshees also emerged in Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy over my favored Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The news wasn’t all bad for Everything as Michelle Yeoh was Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy and Ke Huy Quan is your Best Supporting Actor. The Banshees victory could spawn some prognosticators switching their vote to it winning the BP Oscar. I’m thinking Everything is still very viable and The Fabelmans did what it needed to make this a three-picture race. Had Elvis or Top Gun: Maverick been your Drama pick, it might’ve surged the buzz for them. It wasn’t to be.
Other than the Motion Picture competitions, my other two misses were for Score and Non-English Language Film. In the former, Babylon was selected over my predicted Women Talking. For the latter, it produced the night’s only shocker as Argentina, 1985 was named instead of RRR (what I went with) and All Quiet on the Western Front (what plenty of others went with).
As for the remaining races I got right – Cate Blanchett is Best Actress (Drama) for Tár while Angela Bassett is Supporting Actress for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Austin Butler got the sole Elvis victory as Best Actor (Drama). Guillermo del Toro saw his version of Pinocchio be crowned Animated Feature. Finally, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR is Best Original Song over tunes from heavy hitters like Rihanna, Taylor Swift, and Lady Gaga.
Bottom line: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and The Fabelmans have been my top 3 possibilities for Best Picture for many weeks. Nothing that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association did tonight changed that dynamic.
We’ve got a busy few days coming up with SAG and DGA nominations tomorrow and Critics Choice Awards airing Sunday. I’ll have my updated Oscar predictions up on Monday!
Another significant piece of the Oscar prognosticating puzzle is put together on Wednesday when nominations for the 29th Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards are dropped. The ceremony’s main prize, it’s important to note, is not Best Picture but Best Ensemble. That means a correlation from the Oscar BP and the top race here is not apples to apples. It is worth noting that half of the last 10 SAG Ensemble victors (Argo, Birdman, Spotlight, Parasite, CODA) did go on to win BP from the Academy. On the other hand, three recent BPs (The Shape of Water, Green Book, Nomadland) didn’t make the SAG quintet at all.
Let’s go through all six categories one by one with my picks and a runner-up call, shall we?
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
There are plenty of possibilities including box office hits like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, and Top Gun: Maverick. For Panther, the original won Ensemble in 2018 so the sequel materializing is feasible. I wouldn’t discount the sprawling cast of Babylon though middling reviews could hurt it. It’s tempting to pick Glass Onion but I’m hesitant since Knives Out was snubbed in 2019.
Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans seem safe. Despite the small call sheet for The Banshees of Inisherin (with just four significant roles), I could see the SAG branch honoring it. I’m also liking The Woman King‘s chances. Women Talking is perhaps the biggest question mark. It has underperformed with precursors. A couple of months ago, I’d have considered it a potential frontrunner to win. Now I wonder if it makes it at all. Nevertheless – here’s my take:
Predicted Nominees:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
The Woman King
Women Talking
Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
In the previous decade, SAG in Actress has matched the Academy 4/5 on six occasions and 3/5 on four. There are no perfect correlations. SAG has shown they will throw in a shocker – Jennifer Aniston in Cake, Sarah Silverman for I Smile Back or Emily Blunt in The Girl on the Train are recent examples. If there’s one here, look out for Naomi Ackie (Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody).
Margot Robbie (Babylon) is currently the one I’ve got in the Academy five (for the moment) that I don’t have here. Ana de Armas (Blonde) is a real threat. If she makes this quintet, look for her Oscar stock to soar. With those possibilities mentioned, my choices are…
Predicted Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Ana de Armas, Blonde
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) should all be safe. Bill Nighy (Living) is fourth though I suspect there’s a better chance at SAG leaving him off than the Academy. Then there’s that five spot. It could be Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto), Hugh Jackman (The Son), or Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Take your pick. I’m leaning toward the star of the year’s biggest hit. On a side note, there’s been a SAG/Oscar match of 5/5 for the previous two cycles.
Predicted Nominees:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Bill Nighy, Living
Runner-Up: Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Last year was an anomaly when just 2 of the SAG nominees (Ariana DeBose for West Side Story and The Power of the Dog‘s Kirsten Dunst) scored Oscar nods. The magic number is usually 3 or 4. The wide open nature of this race has been discussed a lot on the blog. Beyond my picks and runner-up, don’t discount Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Claire Foy (Women Talking), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), and Carey Mulligan (She Said).
Predicted Nominees:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Like Supporting Actress last year, there was only a 2 for 5 match with Troy Kotsur in CODA and Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog. Usually it’s 4. For 2022, I believe only Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson are safe assumptions. The remaining three slots should be some combo of Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Tom Hanks (Elvis), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Brad Pitt (Babylon), and Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) sorting it out.
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Runner-Up: Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble
Don’t discount The Batman or Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, but my quintet is as follows…
Predicted Nominees:
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Runner-Up: RRR
That equates to these movies generating these numbers:
5 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3 Nominations
The Fabelmans, The Woman King
2 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale, Women Talking
1 Nomination
The Batman, Elvis, The Good Nurse, Living, Tár, Till
On Wednesday evening you can expect a recap of what happens after noms are revealed!
After controversies kept the 79th ceremony off of the air in 2021, the 80th Golden Golden Awards is set to air on NBC Tuesday night with Jerrod Carmichael hosting. When it comes down to winners for their contribution to film, we can safely bet on one. Eddie Murphy will receive the Cecil B. DeMille Award for his four decades of work onscreen. We can probably safely bet on more than just Eddie (Colin Farrell comes to mind).
Most categories are tougher to project. There are a number of races where I don’t feel confident with my arrived at winner. Quite frankly, if I go 7/14 this year, I’ll be content.
For each category, I’ll give you my pick and my runner-up. Unlike the Oscars, you won’t get detailed analysis though I will say here’s some of the categories that are tough:
Best Motion Picture (Drama) is a four-way race between everything not named Tár while Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) is a genuine two-way competition between The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The Fabelmans might be fading with the Academy and that could hinder Spielberg’s chance at Director. The legendary filmmaker was very notably snubbed from the sixteen shortlist possibilities at BAFTA. However, that happened after voting had closed with HFPA. I still give him the slight edge with the Globes, but watch out for the Daniels or Baz Luhrmann.
In the lead acting races, three are easy to pick. Actor in a Drama is not as I think it’s a coin flip between Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser. My selection comes down to what I chose for Best Picture.
I don’t think Carey Mulligan takes Supporting Actress for She Said. The other four are all viable. While Kerry Condon might be the soft favorite for Oscar, I could see the HFPA going with a more famous performer with a celebrated body of work. Whether that’s Angela Bassett or Jamie Lee Curtis is an excellent question.
RRR could take Non-English Language Film and Song though the runners-up are both strong spoilers. Women Talking, The Fabelmans, and Babylon are all totally feasible for Score.
All right – enough talk! Time to (yikes) choose…
BEST MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
BEST MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Predicted Winner: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Runner-Up: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Runner-Up: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Bill Nighy (Living), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
The Nominees: Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Margot Robbie, Babylon
BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
The Nominees: Diego Calva (Babylon), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Adam Driver (White Noise), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)
Predicted Winner: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s say Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)
Predicted Winner: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST SCREENPLAY
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Women Talking
Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Inu-oh, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
BEST NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE FILM
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR
Predicted Winner: RRR
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking
Predicted Winner: Women Talking
Runner-Up: The Fabelmans
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Nominees: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Predicted Winner: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Runner-Up: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
That equates to these movies achieving these numbers in terms of wins:
3 Wins
Everything Everywhere All at Once
2 Wins
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, RRR
1 Win
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár, Women Talking
Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made an unexpected amount of noise when the British Academy of Film and Television Art (BAFTA) announced their shortlists prior to the final nominations on January 19th. The long lists can vary in size and so can the numbers of eventual nominees coming in two weeks.
It’s a little confusing and hard to keep track of, but one thing is certain. World War I epic Quiet is eligible for the most races with 15 followed by The Banshees of Inisherin at 14. The superb performance from the former only helps its recent surge in the Oscar race (where I elevated it to my 10 for BP contenders on Monday).
Not all pictures had good showings from our British colleagues. This is especially true for The Fabelmans (with a shockingly subpar showing) and Women Talking.
Let’s go through each feature length shortlist with some general comments. Predictions for the nominees will come shortly before the 19th when I’ll delve a bit deeper.
Best Film
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Living
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Half of these features will make the cut and it’s hard to imagine All Quiet not doing so considering its haul. Same for Banshees would could be a soft frontrunner. It’s also worth noting Everything did just fine. Key pics you won’t find here: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Women Talking.
Outstanding British Film
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Blue Jean
Brian and Charles
Emily
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Lady Chatterley’s Lover
Living
The Lost King
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
See How They Run
The Swimmers
The Wonder
Plenty of British titles here that aren’t expected to make a dent with the Academy’s voters. Only three of these hopefuls made Best Film and Banshees should have a leg up on Aftersun (which performed splendidly with BAFTA) and Living.
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Aftersun
Blue Jean
Donna
Electric Malady
Emily
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Nothing Compares
Rebellion
See How They Run
Wayfinder
This one should be Aftersun all the way considering it’s the only entry vying for the top prize.
Film Not in the English Language
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo
Close
Corsage
Decision to Leave
EO
Holy Spider
The Quiet Girl
RRR
While Saint Omer made the director cut, its miss is notable here. Bardo got in, but popped up nowhere else. Even more surprisingly – same goes for RRR. This should be an All Quiet win.
Documentary
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
A Bunch of Amateurs
Fire of Love
The Ghost of Richard Harris
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song
Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues
McEnroe
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Like the Academy, Good Night Oppy couldn’t make the shortlist while Descendant is another high profile snub.
Animated Film
The Amazing Maurice
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Lightyear
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
4 of 8 go through. While Pinocchio is out front – don’t sleep on Marcel.
Director
Colm Bairéad, The Quiet Girl
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Chinonye Chukwu, Till
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alice Diop, Saint Omer
Sara Dosa, Fire of Love
Todd Field, Tár
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Marie Kreutzer, Corsage
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King
Maria Schrader, She Said
Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
BAFTA puts up 8 male and 8 female filmmakers on the shortlist before it shrinks to 6 (three of each gender). I’ll have more on who I think gets in later, but how about who didn’t!?!? There’s James Cameron for Avatar (which had a mediocre performance overall). The giant shocker was not seeing Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. And this one feels like it could have Oscar implications. I’ve had him listed #1 in Director for months. That placement is in serious jeopardy. I think he still gets makes the Academy’s quintet, but I suspect his #1 status will take a hit when I update in a couple of days.
Leading Actress
Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
It’s a bit unexpected seeing Ackie and Chastain over some picks BAFTA might’ve gone for like Vicky Krieps in Corsage and Florence Pugh in The Wonder. Same goes (sort of) for Olivia Colman in Empire of Light. However, it’s worth pointing out that BAFTA also ignored her for The Father and The Lost Daughter (the Academy didn’t). And you won’t see Babylon‘s Margot Robbie in the mix either.
Leading Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Harris Dickinson, Triangle of Sadness
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Daniel Kaluuya, Nope
Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front
Daryl McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
I have a feeling the six eventual nominees may not include Dickinson, Kaluuya, Kammerer, and McCormack but that’s not a final call. Notable names out include Diego Calva (Babylon), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), Hugh Jackman (The Son, which was blanked) and Jeremy Pope (The Inspection).
Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Lashana Lynch, The Woman King
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Emma Thompson, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Aimee Lou Wood, Living
Ms. Thompson scored an unanticipated double nod thanks to this one as this 2022 hard to figure out Supporting Actress derby stayed that way. Like the Globes, no Jessie Buckley or Claire Foy from Women Talking.
Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Whishaw being the only acting nominee for Women Talking kinda came out of nowhere. So did familiar faces like Hanks and Harrelson over either of the Fabelmans contenders – Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch. Pitt at last lands Babylon an above the line nom.
Original Screenplay
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
The Menu
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Dare I say there’s no real surprises in this race.
Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Living
The Quiet Girl
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking
The Wonder
This could’ve been where White Noise got a lone nod, but nope. Considering the so-so performance of Women Talking, I wouldn’t automatically think it wins. But… what does?
***For the rest of these races, I’m listing just the shortlisted pics. Forecasted nominees are coming soon enough! I will say The Fabelmans is MIA in places where it was expected to be (especially Cinematography and Score).
Casting
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Living
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Athena
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Costume Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Corsage
Elvis
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Editing
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Moonage Daydream
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Make Up & Hair
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Elvis
Emancipation
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
The Whale
Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Tár
Women Talking
The Wonder
Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Special Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Jurassic World: Dominion
Top Gun: Maverick
Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Tár
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun: Maverick
Keep an eye out for BAFTA final predictions from these shortlists and the same for the Golden Globes and Critics Choice!
My first Oscar predictions for this new year (coming 22 days prior to nomination morning) comes with a change in Best Picture and other major races.
While I still believe that Babylon could make the BP ten despite mixed reviews and poor word-of-mouth, I have dropped it in favor of Triangle of Sadness.
In Best Director, James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is in the five to the detriment of Women Talking‘s Sarah Polley.
While Best Actress remains intact, Brendan Fraser is back at #1 for The Whale over Austin Butler as Elvis. This is really semantics. I believe Fraser, Butler, and Colin Farrell are basically 1a, 1b, and 1c at this juncture. It may take upcoming precursors to make it clearer. There’s another shift as Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) gets the five spot over Hugh Jackman for The Son. I almost went with Aftersun‘s Paul Mescal.
In Supporting Actress, Claire Foy returns over her Women Talking costar Jessie Buckley. This category is still the trickiest acting derby to peg.
We also have 4 new number ones elsewhere. In Documentary Feature, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed vaults again to first. Elvis shimmies to the top in Costume Design while dropping to second in Makeup and Hairstyling with The Whale back at 1. The Fabelmans tops Original Score.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elvis (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 13) (+4)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Babylon (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Whale (PR: 11) (-1)
13. RRR (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Woman King (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
S.S. Rajamouli, RRR
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Diego Calva, Babylon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Menu (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Whale (PR: 4) (+1)
4. She Said (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)
3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 5) (+1)
5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6 (E)
7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (E)
8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)
9. Inu-Oh (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)
7. EO (PR: 7) (E)
8. Holy Spider (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joyland (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Quiet Girl (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Navalny (PR: 1) (-1)
3. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Descendant (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bad Axe (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Janes (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Retrograde (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bardo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elvis (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emancipation (PR: 7) (E)
8. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blonde (PR: 9) (E)
10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Women Talking (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
She Said
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Nothing is Lost (You Give My Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nope (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these films achieving these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
6 Nominations
Babylon
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Tár, Women Talking
3 Nominations
The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
Living
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Nope, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King
We have reached 2019 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
In 2019, there were nine films vying for the prize. We know one thing for sure. Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite is in since it made history and became the first non-English language title to take Best Picture. It had a big night as it also won Director, Original Screenplay, and International Feature Film.
There’s 8 others to consider. Only half make cut. Let’s get into it!
Ford v Ferrari
James Mangold’s 1960s set sports drama starring Matt Damon and Christian Bale had four total nominations and won 2 of them (Sound Editing and Film Editing). It wasn’t as fortunate in Picture or Sound Mixing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. I say this knowing the Film Editing victor usually lands a BP nod (though not the case with 2007’s The Bourne Ultimatum and 2011’s The Girl with Dragon Tattoo). However, Ford achieved the least number of overall mentions among the 9 contenders and missed key races including Director, any acting derbies, and screenplay.
The Irishman
Martin Scorsese’s return to the Mob genre was Netflix’s highest profile Oscar player yet. It earned ten overall nods including for Scorsese, two Supporting Actor bids for Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, and Adapted Screenplay. Going 0 for 10, Robert De Niro was a somewhat surprising omission for his lead work.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Despite the lack of wins, the sheer number of inclusions indicate the legendary filmmaker and cast would vie for the top award.
Jojo Rabbit
Taika Waititi’s unique take on WWII was up for 6 races including Scarlett Johansson for Supporting Actress and Film Editing. The sole victory (a major one) was Adapted Screenplay where it beat out three other BP nominees.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but this was easily the hardest to leave off. The Screenplay win suggests it certainly could have. A miss in Director was a deciding factor and the fact that I couldn’t omit any of the final five I ended up going with.
Joker
Warner Bros. had unexpected bragging rights as this Scorsese inspired take on the DC Comics villain had the best haul with 11 nods. This includes Todd Phillips in Director and key precursors like Editing and Adapted Screenplay. The two wins came courtesy of Joaquin Phoenix in the title role and in Original Score.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Usually the leader of the pack does and this popped up in categories it originally wasn’t anticipated to.
Little Women
Greta Gerwig’s acclaimed version of the classic Louisa May Alcott novel was also up for Actress (Saoirse Ronan), Supporting Actress (Florence Pugh), Adapted Screenplay, Score, and Costume Design (which was its only victory).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Simple math here. If I didn’t put Jojo in (which won Adapted Screenplay), I can’t justify vaulting this over it.
Marriage Story
Just like Little Women, Noah Baumbach’s drama was up for six and managed one. The win was Laura Dern (who was also in Women) in Supporting Actress while it also vied for Actor (Adam Driver), Actress (double nominee Scarlett Johansson), Original Screenplay, and Original Score.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Just like Little Women – no. Like Women, not making the Director race and not winning screenplay make this a fairly easy forecast.
1917
The World War I epic from Sam Mendes boasted 10 nominations with 3 statues for Sound Mixing, Cinematography, and Visual Effects. The Editing miss was obvious since the picture famously used few cuts.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. In fact, this was likely the runner-up to Parasite. It went into the evening as the favorite for BP and Director until Joon-ho’s film made its history.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Quentin Tarantino’s ninth feature was slotted for 10 categories including QT for director, Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor, and Original Screenplay where its two-time winning scribe lost to Joon-ho. The two victories were Brad Pitt in Supporting Actor and Production Design.
Does It the Final Five?
Yes though I admit the Editing snub had me questioning it. An argument can be made for Jojo, but I ultimately think Quentin and company get in.
So that means your 2019 Final Five is:
The Irishman
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
I will note that this quintet mirrors the individuals who were up for Best Director. That is typically not a 5/5 match. It happened occasionally when there were 5 BP nominees and I feel this is a time where it would’ve.
2020 will be up soon and if you missed the posts covering 2009-18, they can be accessed here:
Tarik Saleh’s political thriller Cairo Conspiracy (known as Boy from Heaven in other areas of the globe) is Sweden’s submission for International Feature Film at the Oscars. Following its premiere at Cannes in early summer, Saleh took the Best Screenplay prize. With shortlists being announced last week, it’s one of 15 foreign entries vying for 5 slots.
Cairo isn’t quite as acclaimed as some other hopefuls with its 71% Rotten Tomatoes score. The Swedes, on the other hand, are pretty crafty at getting their pics nominated. There’s been two in the past decade with 2016’s A Man Called Ove and 2017’s The Square. You do have to go back a ways to find the previous winner in 1983’s Fanny and Alexander.
It was a question mark whether Conspiracy would even make the shortlist. I suspect it won’t be seen in the eventual quintet despite its country’s previous successes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The nation of Morocco has submitted a total of 18 pictures for consideration from 1977 to the present in the Academy’s International Feature Film race. Only two have made the shortlist – 2011’s Omar Killed Me and this year’s The Blue Caftan. They’re hoping the latter is the first to make the final five.
Maryam Touzani’s relationship drama starring Lubna Azabal and Saleh Bakri premiered at Cannes back in May to appreciative reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 93%. Her previous film Adam from 2019 was also Morocco’s designee for IFF, but didn’t make the shortlist like her sophomore feature length effort.
Of the 15 features vying for five spots, I didn’t have Caftan in the top ten for possibilities when I updated my projections last weekend. This will likely remain the case in my next forecast. In the international competition, there’s always the possibility for a surprise. It happened last year with Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom. Caftan could do the same though I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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