The high budgeted dystopian adventure MortalEngines hopes to bring in viewers next weekend based mostly on its connections to the LordoftheRings franchise. Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, and Philippa Boyens share writing duties, just as they did on that blockbuster franchise. Unlike that series, Mr. Jackson is not directing as protegé Christian Rivers makes his feature-length debut. There’s no big stars in a cast that includes Hugo Weaving, Hera Hilmar, Robert Sheehan, Jihae, and Stephen Lang.
Even with its well-known talent behind the camera, Engines faces an uphill battle for attention. Reviews aren’t so hot with a current rating of 36% on Rotten Tomatoes. It could get lost in the glut of holiday titles and faces demographic competition from Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse, which opens directly against it.
With those challenges, I’m predicting the reported $100 million dollar effort will stall out of the gate. That means low single digits to low teens and the likelihood it won’t hold well in subsequent weekends.
MortalEngines opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million
For my Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse prediction, click here:
We’ve had Golden Globe nominations this morning and AFI’s top ten list on Tuesday, but my top 10 Best Picture picks for Oscar glory have stayed remarkably the same. In case you missed my recap of those major precursors, you can find them here:
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
10. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
10. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 9)
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
10. Rosamund Pike, A Private War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
7. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 7)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Vice
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 10)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)
10. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: !)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Widows (PR: 6)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
9. Leave No Trace (PR: 10)
10. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Boy Erased
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 4)
4. Vice (PR: 6)
5. First Reformed (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)
7. Private Life (PR: 8)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
10. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mule
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Capernaum (PR: 4)
5. Girl (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning (PR: 5)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 6)
8. Border (PR: 7)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)
10. I Am Not a Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Guilty
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 3)
3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Smallfoot (PR: 6)
7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)
8. Early Man (PR: 7)
9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 8)
10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tito and the Birds
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. Free Solo (PR: 3)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
7. Dark Money (PR: 8)
8. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)
9. Science Fair (PR: 10)
10. Quincy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amazing Grace
Best Film Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. Black Panther (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 8)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)
8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)
9. Green Book (PR: 7)
10. Widows (PR: 6)
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
3. First Man (PR: 2)
4. The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Cold War (PR: 7)
8. Widows (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
10. Vice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Roma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Colette
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Colette (PR: 5)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 6)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 1)
2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
3. Vice (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 6)
5. The Favourite (PR: 5)
6. Colette (PR: 7)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
9. Deadpool 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Black Panther (PR: 2)
5. Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Sound Mixing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. A Quiet Place (PR: 5)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
7. Roma (PR: 7)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 8)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Incredibles 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Original Score
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isle of Dogs (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Colette (PR: 7)
8. Widows (PR: 6)
9. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Roma
Best Original Song
1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 4)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’ (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 9)
7. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 5)
8. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)
9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 6)
10. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Gravity” from Free Solo
And that correlates to the following movies getting this number of nominations:
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born
10 Nominations
The Favourite, First Man
9 Nominations
Black Panther
8 Nominations
Mary Poppins Returns, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Vice
4 Nominations
Green Book
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, First Reformed, RBG
1 Nomination
Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum, Girl, Incredibles 2, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Crazy Rich Asians, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Dumplin’
The most known precursor to the Oscars unveiled their nominations today. Per usual, there were surprises as some films hopes potentially dim for the big prize with others rising.
As far as my predictions, I went 51/70 overall while going 5/5 in four of the fourteen races. Today I will also make my first predictions for winners with final picks coming a couple of days before the ceremony in January.
Let’s break them all down with a little analysis, shall we?
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born
A bit surprisingly, Bohemian Rhapsody managed to score a nod over my prediction of First Man. I would say that at this juncture, Man is truly a question mark as to whether it garners an Oscar slot for Picture, while its inclusion in tech races still seems assured. Additionally, I think Black Panther helped its cause today to be the first comic book flick to get a Best Picture nomination from the Academy.
Predicted Winner: A Star Is Born
Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns, Vice
No surprises here! Picking a winner is far more tough as I believe The Favourite, Green Book, and Vice all have legitimate shots. Both Peter Farrelly (Green Book) and Adam McKay (Vice) received Directing nods while Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) did not. That could give those two pictures a slight edge and I’ll put it as a coin toss at the moment.
Predicted Winner: Green Book
Best Director
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice), Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
The aforementioned McKay and Farrelly were the ones I didn’t predict. I instead had Lanthimos and Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk). This would seem to be between Cuaron and Cooper and I’ll give the former a tiny edge.
Predicted Winner: Cuaron
Best Actor (Drama)
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Hedges and Washington (a rather genuine surprise) got in over Ryan Gosling (First Man) and Ethan Hawke (First Reformed). Mr. Hawke had been on a roll with critics precursors and this is the first interruption of that. Gosling’s snub continues the troubling trend for First Man. With Christian Bale and Viggo Mortensen in the Musical/Comedy race, this appears to be a clear victory for Cooper.
Predicted Winner: Cooper
Best Actress (Drama)
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Glenn Close (The Wife), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Rosamund Pike (A Private War)
Both Kidman and Pike helped their cases for Oscar attention here while my predicted nominees of Viola Davis (Widows) and Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) did not. This category appears to be Close vs. Gaga (as it may also be for the Academy). This prediction could and likely will fluctuate.
Predicted Winner: Close
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun), John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)
No big surprise with Reilly getting in over Nick Robinson (Love, Simon), which was a bit of a wild card pick. Bale and Mortensen are the two winner possibilities and I’m going with the former right now.
I’m giving Colman the win, but this could easily be changed to Blunt at some point.
Predicted Winner: Colman
Best Supporting Actor
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)
No Sam Elliot for A Star Is Born was unexpected, with Rockwell continuing the Vice love. Ali should be considered a soft front-runner, but a win for Driver or Grant seems feasible. I’m going for an upset pick, but could revert back to Ali.
Predicted Winner: Grant
Best Supporting Actress
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Claire Foy (First Man), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Adams is probably going to win… for Sharp Objects in the television race for which she’s also nominated. Stone and Weisz could cancel one another out and Foy represents the lone high-profile nod for First Man. That leaves Ms. King and she seems to be a front-runner.
Predicted Winner: King
Best Screenplay
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, Vice
The exclusion of A Star Is Born surprised me with Green Book honored instead. This is a tough one, but I’ll say this ends up being the sole win for The Favourite. Roma and Vice are certainly possible.
Predicted Winner: The Favourite
Best Foreign Language Film
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Capernaum, Girl, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters
Capernaum in, Cold War out. Roma will win. Enough said.
Predicted Winner: Roma
Best Animated Feature Film
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Interent, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
This could certainly be the Academy five. The Hollywood Foreign Press loves their Pixar. Dogs and Spider-Man could threaten, but the safe pick is Incredibles 2.
Predicted Winner: Incredibles 2
Best Original Score
Todd’s Performance: 2/5
The Nominees: A Quiet Place, Isle of Dogs, Black Panther, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns
Ouch. Didn’t fare well here as I only predicted First Man and Poppins. A shocking omission was Beale Street, which some see as the Academy favorite in this race. Considering its lackluster reception for Man, it could dangerous to pick it over Poppins, but here goes.
Predicted Winner: First Man
Best Original Song
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: “All the Stars” (Black Panther), “Girl in the Movies” (Dumplin’), “Requiem for a Private War” (A Private War), “Revelation” (Boy Erased), “The Shallow” (A Star Is Born)
I had two Poppins tracks in and not “Revelation” or “Requiem”. This is going Gaga.
Predicted Winner: “The Shallow” (A Star Is Born).
And there you have it folks! I’ll have updated Oscar predictions up later today…
Clint Eastwood has been consistently behind the camera and offering about a movie a year for quite some time. His appearances in front of it have been far less frequent in recent years. That changes next weekend when the Oscar winner directs himself in The Mule. The pic is a true life crime tale with Eastwood as a World War II vet who becomes a courier for Mexican drug cartels. Bradley Cooper, Laurence Fishburne, Michael Pena, Dianne Wiest, and Andy Garcia are among the supporting cast.
As mentioned, we haven’t seen its star in a film since 2012’s Trouble with the Curve. He hasn’t directed himself since 2008’s blockbuster Gran Torino. Adult moviegoers will be targeted here and Eastwood’s involvement could do the trick. Whether or not it opens on a large-scale or plays well throughout the holiday weeks ahead is a little uncertain. That might depend on its reviews, which aren’t out yet.
If The Mule manages to top $18 million out of the gate, it would actually be Clint’s largest debut of a feature he’s acted in (the current record is held by 2000’s Space Cowboys). While the wide release of Torino generated nearly $30 million, it was released in limited fashion for a few weeks prior.
That’s not out of the realm of possibility, but I’ll project it falls just short of that as it hopes to leg out nicely in the weeks ahead.
The Mule opening prediction: $17.6 million
For my Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse prediction, click here:
An iconic superhero swings into theaters in yet another iteration next Friday when Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse debuts. This time around, the friendly neighborhood character is animated in a world where multiple individuals can don the spandex. Phil Lord (part of the team behind TheLegoMovie) shares writing credit along with co-director Peter Ramsey. Shameik Moore and Jake Johnson both provide voice work for Spidey. Other actors behind the mic include Hailee Steinfeld, Mahershala Ali, Liev Schreiber, Brian Tyree Henry, and Lily Tomlin.
Sony Pictures certainly has reviews on their side as this stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some critics even claim it’s the overall best of the series (this is now the seventh stand-alone entry focused on the Marvel web slinger). It appears destined for an Oscar nod in Best Animated Feature.
I believe the raves and familiarity with its title character should propel this to pleasing returns. With projections in the $30-$40 million range, I’m estimating Spider–Verse will premiere on the high-end of that spectrum and likely top it.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse opening weekend prediction: $43.4 million
The American Film Institute (AFI) unveiled their list of the top 10 pictures of the year and it’s often seen as a harbinger of potential things to come at the Oscars. Here are the films they selected as their finest:
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Eight Grade
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
A Star Is Born
First off, we should keep in mind that this is the American Film Institute. Therefore Roma is nowhere to be found and not eligible. It has high probability to make the Academy’s Best Picture selections.
Taking a look at the last three years of AFI picks, 7 of their honorees in 2015 and 2016 scored a Best Picture nod at the big race. Last year, it was six. I would automatically say five films here seem safe for Oscar inclusion: BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, and A Star Is Born.
AFI has a habit of occasionally honoring blockbusters that don’t make it to the golden dance. Over the past three cycles, that includes Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Straight Outta Compton, Inside Out, and Wonder Woman. That same rule could apply to Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns, or A Quiet Place. That said, Panther and Poppins stand solid chances for Best Picture recognition. That gets us to seven.
First Reformed and Eighth Grade are far more questionable, though both have made strong showings in precursors (especially the former).
The glaring omissions are Vice and First Man – two films I have consistently projected for Academy nominations. I don’t see that changing yet. Three more that could have been boosted by AFI, but were not: Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Crazy Rich Asians, and Widows.
All in all, my aforementioned analysis indicates seven could end up being the number of nominees here that move onto Oscar glory.
Before an onslaught of holiday titles enter the marketplace, it looks to be a sleepy weekend at the box office as no wide releases open. That means November leftovers should continue to populate the top five.
I don’t see the rankings from the past frame changing with Ralph Breaks the Internet slated for a three-peat. While the post Thanksgiving weekend often sees large drops, that should ease a bit here with most titles dropping in the 30s.
Truth be told, it’s a lackluster weekend before nearly a dozen Christmas offerings arrive in the two weeks following.
Here’s my take on the top 5:
1. Ralph Breaks the Internet
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
2. The Grinch
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
3. Creed II
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
4. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
Box Office Results (November 30-December 2)
Ralph Breaks the Internet easily ruled the roost for the second weekend in a row as nearly all titles dipped a tad below my projections. The Disney sequel made $25.5 million (I was higher at $28.7 million) for a two-week tally of $119 million.
The Grinch was second with $17.9 million (I said $20 million) as it crossed the double century mark with $203 million.
Creed II placed third in its sophomore outing with $16.6 million compared to my $18.2 million estimate. Total gross is $80 million.
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald was in fourth position at $11.3 million (I said $12.1 million) for $134 million overall.
Bohemian Rhapsody got the five-spot with $8 million, in line with my $7.8 million prediction. The Freddie Mercury biopic is up to $164 million.
Instant Family was sixth with $7.1 million (I said $7.9 million) for earnings of $45 million.
Finally, horror fans propelled low-budget The Possession of Hannah Grace to a better than anticipated showing in seventh with $6.4 million, doubling my $3.2 million forecast.
The Golden Globes, perhaps the biggest precursor of all to the Oscars, unveils their nominees this Thursday as awards prognosticators like me attempt to read tea leaves. As a reminder, the Globes do it a bit differently than the Academy. For Picture and lead acting races, nominees are divided into Drama and Musical/Comedy. Unlike the Oscars, Screenplay is just one category with five pictures, whether they’re original or adapted works.
It should be strong showings for A Star Is Born and The Favourite in particular. Another difference between Globes and Oscar is that foreign features are only honored in their particular category. That’s significant this year as Roma will only be called for Foreign Language Film.
One item to pay attention to – Clint Eastwood’s The Mule. Despite coming out a week from Friday, it has yet to have reviews come out (perhaps this will change by Thursday). If it makes a showing in any of the dramatic races, that could bode well for Oscar attention.
Here are my predictions for the nominees in each category, along with an alternate and a wild card pick. I’ll have my weekly Oscar predictions updated on Thursday and we’ll see if the Globes alter those picks in any way.
Let’s get to it!
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
A Star Is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Alternate – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Wild Card – The Mule
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
Alternate – Eighth Grade
Wild Card – Private Life
Best Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Alternate – Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Wild Card – Damien Chazelle, First Man
Best Actor (Drama)
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate – Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Wild Card – Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Best Actress (Drama)
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Viola Davis, Widows
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate – Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Wild Card – Toni Collette, Hereditary
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun
Nick Robinson, Love, Simon
Alternate – John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie
Wild Card – Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 2
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Alternate – Regina Hall, Support the Girls
Wild Card – Kathryn Hahn, Private Life
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate – Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
Wild Card – Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Wild Card – Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Best Animated Feature Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alternate – Smallfoot
Wild Card – The Grinch
Best Foreign Language Film
Cold War
Girl
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
Alternate – Capernaum
Wild Card – I Am Not a Witch
Best Screenplay
A Star Is Born
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
Vice
Alternate – Green Book
Wild Card – First Reformed
Best Original Score
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Alternate – Widows
Wild Card – Suspiria
Best Original Song
“All the Stars” from Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns
“The Shallow” from A Star Is Born
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns
Alternate – “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born
Wild Card – “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet
And that equates to the following number of nominations for each picture:
6 Nominations
The Favourite
5 Nominations
A Star Is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns
4 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, First Man, Roma, Vice
3 Nominations
Green Book
2 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Crazy Rich Asians
1 Nomination
Black Panther, At Eternity’s Gate, First Reformed, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Widows, The Old Man & The Gun, Love, Simon, Eighth Grade, Tully, Beautiful Boy, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Cold War, Never Look Away, Shoplifters, Mary Queen of Scots
I’ll have reaction up on Thursday with updated Oscar picks later that day!
When a little underdog of a movie named Rocky came out 42 years ago, a litany of Roman numeral titled sequels wasn’t foreseeable. Fantastic box office returns and a surprising Best Picture Oscar win changed that dynamic. 1979’s RockyII was eagerly awaited and served as nothing much more than a retread of its predecessor. It was a dull copy at that where the main difference was its hero Rocky Balboa (Sylvester Stallone) besting rival Apollo Creed (Carl Weathers).
Creed came out in 2015 and it had underdog status itself. The concept of shifting the focus to Apollo’s illegitimate son Adonis (Michael B. Jordan) and his prowess in the ring seemed a little lame upon its announcement. However, like Rocky, the picture exceeded expectations with energetic direction from Ryan Coogler, fine work from Jordan, and an emotional storyline with Rocky’s cancer diagnosis. Stallone was even nominated again for an Academy Award.
Financial success has brought those Greek digits back. CreedII has a deeper well to drain from as far as plot compared to RockyII because of the further follow-ups. Coogler isn’t behind the camera anymore as he took on the phenomenon that was BlackPanther. Steven Caple Jr. takes over the reins while Stallone shares script credit (something he didn’t do three years ago).
1985’s RockyIV is the entry that the second Creed taps for material. As you’ll recall, this was the saga where Balboa fought fierce Russian competitor Ivan Drago (Dolph Lundgren) while seemingly punching out Communism too. Part four was cheesy, very much of its time, and highly enjoyable. It’s also the one where Drago delivered a fatal blow to Apollo after the energetic “Living in America” performance of James Brown.
Adonis gets an opportunity to avenge his father here. Drago’s son Viktor (Florian Munteanu) is an up-and-comer with his sights on the now heavyweight champion. His pops Ivan sees it as revenge after mother Russia shunned him following his loss to Balboa. The daddy issues don’t end there. Creed is now engaged to singer Bianca (Tessa Thompson) and she’s expecting. Rocky is estranged from his son as Adonis often fills that void.
The Italian Stallion isn’t thrilled with the prospect of Creed/Drago II, considering Apollo died in his arms. And we know that training montages will keep the drama unfolding. We don’t have a Xerox like situation with this sequel. It does follow the path of #4 in numerous ways, including a Soviet set main event.
Ivan Drago was a man of few words in ‘85 and he still is. His back story of abandonment from his wife (Brigitte Nielsen, who cameos) and countrymen has the potential to be compelling, but it’s given the short shrift. Jordan is still excellent in the title role, as is his chemistry with Thompson. Stallone’s character arch here is considerably less captivating than the last time around. This franchise is shifting away from him to Adonis and you feel it.
Like Creed, the ring action is more realistic than anything in the Rocky tales, where punches landed with a percentage of around 110%. Caple Jr. does decent work filming them, though not to the level of what Coogler accomplished.
CreedII is a superior direct sequel than RockyII. The common thread is that neither are particularly memorable or necessary. To add to the clichés that permeate this series (sometimes in supreme guilty pleasure ways), it’s not a knockout. If you’re a true fan, though, it certainly won’t break you.
We’ve had the Gotham Awards, the National Board of Review, and New York Film Critics Circle transpire over the past week and my Oscar predictions are updated! Let’s get to it:
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 7)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. Vice (PR: 5)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
10. First Man (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Eighth Grade (PR: 14)
13. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)
14. Widows (PR: 11)
15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The Mule
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 6)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 8)
10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
9. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)
4. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)
8. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 8)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
7. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
9. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
10. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 2)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 5)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
8. The Hate U Give (PR: 7)
9. Boy Erased (PR: 8)
10. Leave No Trace (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. First Reformed (PR: 6)
4. Green Book (PR: 3)
5. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 4)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Private Life (PR: 8)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
10. The Mule (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Capernaum (PR: 5)
5. Burning (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Look Away (PR: 8)
7. Border (PR: 10)
8. Girl (PR: 4)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 6)
10. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I Am Not a Witch
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
3. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 4)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Smallfoot (PR: 8)
7. Early Man (PR: 6)
8. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)
9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 7)
10. Tito and the Birds (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. Free Solo (PR: 3)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 7)
7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: Not Ranked)
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