Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

September 27-29 Box Office Predictions

It’s the weekend before Joker hopes to set the all-time October weekend record and September ends with the release of Dreamworks Animation’s Abominable hoping to nab first position. You can peruse my detailed prediction post of it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/17/abominable-box-office-prediction/

I look for the newcomer to have a debut in similar range with other late similar genre September titles such as Open Season, Storks, and Smallfoot. A low 20s start should be solid enough for the top spot.

Downton Abbey, after a sizzling premiere that easily blasted past Brad Pitt and Sylvester Stallone’s newbies, should move down a slot with a dip in the low to mid 40s range. It is worth wondering how much of its business was front loaded due to fan anticipation.

Ad Astra managed to slightly outdo Rambo: Last Blood and I believe their sophomore drops will track with different stories. Comparing Astra to First Man (which had a 48% dip) and Blood to the last Rambo flick (it fell a steep 60%), Mr. Pitt should manage a third place showing. Mr. Stallone, on the contrary, could fall out of the top 5 altogether when factoring in holds by Hustlers and It Chapter Two (I’m actually projecting J-Lo will vault up a spot to four over Pennywise).

And with that in mind, here’s my take on our top 6 ahead of us:

1. Abominable 

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

2. Downton Abbey 

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million

3. Ad Astra 

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. Hustlers 

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

5. It Chapter Two 

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

6. Rambo: Last Blood 

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (September 20-22)

The Abbey faithful turned out in gigantic numbers for its cinematic rendering with $31 million, easily topping my $20.8 million take. It gives Focus Features its finest start of all time and will be a massively profitable venture considering a small budget.

Ad Astra narrowly took second with $19 million. The Brad Pitt space opera did manage to launch above my $16.9 million projection, but it’s still considered a so-so beginning due to a budget in the $100 million range.

Sylvester Stallone’s second most famous character settled for third as Rambo: Last Blood sliced up $18.8 million, a tad under my $20.4 million prediction. Look for this critically reviled sequel to fade quickly.

After two weeks floating atop the charts, It Chapter Two was fourth with $17 million (I said $18.9 million). Its three week tally is $178 million.

Hustlers rounded out the top five with $16.8 million, in line with my $16.2 million projection. The film has earned over 62 million one dollar bills presently.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Abominable Box Office Prediction

Dreamworks returns to the September animation game next weekend with Abominable. The kiddie adventure comes from director Jill Culton and features the voices of Chloe Bennet, Albert Tsai, Sarah Paulson, and Eddie Izzard. It premiered days ago at the Toronto Film Festival to mostly solid reviews and sports a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 89%.

As mentioned, September (especially the later part of the month) has been fertile ground for animated features. While the Hotel Transylvania and Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs franchises have seen debuts above $30 and $40 million, there’s also been several with starts in the $20-$25 million range. This includes Open Season (which Culton also made), Storks, The Lego Ninjago Movie, and last year’s Smallfoot.

That’s precisely where I see Abominable landing and probably on the lower end of that scale.

Abominable opening weekend prediction: $20.7 million

September 20-22 Box Office Predictions

Well… this could be one fascinating weekend as three new titles open in the general same money-making range with two holdovers also anticipated to be in that ballpark. We have Sylvester Stallone returning as his #2 signature character in Rambo: Last Blood, Brad Pitt in the sci fi drama Ad Astra, and the cinematic rendering of the beloved PBS British period piece program Downton Abbey. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/11/rambo-last-blood-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/11/ad-astra-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/13/downton-abbey-box-office-prediction/

If you’d told me even a week ago that I’d be forecasting Abbey to take the #1 spot over Sly and Brad, I probably wouldn’t have believed it. Yet its approximate 3000 plus screen count (higher than I assumed) and the dedication of its fan base has gotten me there.

I have Abbey ever so slightly topping Rambo. As for Astra, I’m a bit skittish about my projection. It’s received solid reviews and Pitt is coming off the blockbuster Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Considering the competition, however, I see it debuting just slightly higher than last fall’s First Man. 

That puts Astra in fourth behind the third weekend of It Chapter Two and just ahead of the sophomore outing for Hustlers (which performed fantastically for its start).

Here’s how I have the top five shaking out:

1. Downton Abbey 

Predicted Gross: $20.8 million

2. Rambo: Last Blood 

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million

3. It Chapter Two 

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

4. Ad Astra 

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million

5. Hustlers 

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

Box Office Results (September 13-15)

Despite a terrific start for Hustlers, It Chapter Two managed to stay atop the charts for the second time with $39.6 million. That’s just ahead of my $38.4 million forecast and it’s scared up $152 million thus far.

Jennifer Lopez easily achieved the best premiere of her career (with Oscar buzz attached) as Hustlers made $33.1 million. I was close at $31.5 million. Word-of-mouth and critical appreciation clearly assisted it in reaching that pole position.

Angel Has Fallen was third with $4.4 million (I said $3.4 million) for $60 million overall while Good Boys followed at #4 with $4.2 million (I said $3.2 million). It’s up to $73 million.

The Lion King rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The Disney smash earned $3.6 million for a tally of $534 million.

This brings us to The Goldfinch. Once an awards hopeful, poor reviews grounded it to an awful eight place showing with $2.6 million. I was more generous with a $5.7 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Downton Abbey Box Office Prediction

Mister Rogers isn’t the only PBS star getting the silver screen treatment this fall as Downton Abbey hits theaters next weekend. Based on the acclaimed drama about an aristocratic British clan in the 1920s, the film picks up after the series finale from 2016. Julian Fellowes, creator of the program which aired stateside on the public access channel, did the screenplay. Michael Engler directs with numerous cast members returning including Hugh Bonneville, Michelle Dockery, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter, Elizabeth McGovern, Matthew Goode, Penelope Wilton, and Maggie Smith.

Abbey had lots of dedicated followers to go with its multitude of Emmys and they should be curious to see the saga continue. While some could choose to wait and watch the family on the small screen like they’re accustomed to, I suspect a sizable amount will turn up in the cinema.

I was surprised to see this is set to premiere on over 3000 screens. That puts it in contention to compete with Rambo: Last Blood and Ad Astra as the weekend’s highest grossing newcomer. My estimate of just over $20 million puts it just ahead of Mr. Stallone and ahead of Mr. Pitt.

Downton Abbey opening weekend prediction: $20.8 million

For my Rambo: Last Blood prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/11/rambo-last-blood-box-office-prediction/

For my Ad Astra prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/11/ad-astra-box-office-prediction/

Rambo: Last Blood Box Office Prediction

Sylvester Stallone returns to his second most popular signature role for the fifth time next weekend in Rambo: Last Blood. Arriving 37 years after First Blood, the pic finds the aging vet battling a Mexican drug cartel after they kidnap a friend’s daughter. Adrian Grunberg directs with Paz Vega, Sergio Peris-Mencheta, and Adriana Barraza among the costars.

It’s been nearly 12 years since the character graced the silver screen and Rambo earned $18.2 million for starters back in early 2008. Since then, Stallone had a resurgence with his Rocky character with Creed and its sequel. His increased visibility and a nostalgia factor could help this outperform part 4.

To hit the best debut of the franchise, this would need to top the $20.1 million made by 1985’s Rambo: First Blood Part II. Worth noting is that its number is not adjusted for inflation.

There is some competition in the form of Brad Pitt’s Ad Astra, but I’ll say Blood gets the better of it and barely manages to set that unadjusted record.

Rambo: Last Blood opening weekend prediction: $20.4 million

For my Ad Astra prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/11/ad-astra-box-office-prediction/

For my Downton Abbey prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/13/downton-abbey-box-office-prediction/

Ad Astra Box Office Prediction

Mr. Pitt goes to space next weekend in James Gray’s Ad Astra and the reported $80 million plus budgeted sci fi pic hopes for a stealthy launch. Brad Pitt is an astronaut who leaves Earth to find his lost father (Tommy Lee Jones). Costars include Ruth Negga, Liv Tyler, and Donald Sutherland.

Astra premiered last month at the Venice Film Festival to mostly positive critical reaction. It stands at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes, but seems to lack the awards buzz that could help its grosses. Competition for male moviegoers could be hindered a bit by the opening of Rambo: Last Blood.

A debut above $20 million is certainly feasible and Pitt is fresh off Quentin Tarantino’s hit Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which is earning him Oscar chatter. However, I’ll say high teens is where this lands with a similar number to last fall’s First Man.

Ad Astra opening weekend prediction: $16.9 million

For my Rambo: Last Blood prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/11/rambo-last-blood-box-office-prediction/

For my Downton Abbey prediction, click here,

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/13/downton-abbey-box-office-prediction/

September 13-15 Box Office Predictions

It Chapter Two looks to stay atop the charts as Hustlers could surprisingly give it a run for its money. We also have John Crowley’s drama The Goldfinch with Ansel Elgort and Nicole Kidman debuting. Both newbies premiered at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend to vastly differing results. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/04/hustlers-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/05/the-goldfinch-box-office-prediction/

Hustlers has been showered with major critical acclaim and reviews suggesting costar Jennifer Lopez could be in line for her first Oscar nomination. I believe it has a legitimate chance at hitting $30 million or over, but I’m putting it just a tad under. We shall see if this gets revised up as buzz continues to build.

The Goldfinch had the opposite reaction. It looked like Oscar bait (unlike Hustlers), but critics have not been kind. My estimate for it has steadily dwindled down. It should secure third place, but with a quiet start.

Pennywise’s return to the silver screen opened on the lower end of expectations. Our first It chapter dipped 51% in its sophomore frame. I believe the sequel will experience a drop more in the mid 50s range.

And with that, my take on the top five:

1. It Chapter Two

Predicted Gross: $38.4 million

2. Hustlers

Predicted Gross: $31.5 million

3. The Goldfinch

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

4. Angel Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

5. Good Boys

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (September 6–8)

It Chapter Two dominated our first autumn movie weekend. The lengthy horror sequel took in $91 million. As mentioned, that is at the lower end of projections and below my take of $109.7 million. The pic still managed to grab the second biggest September haul and #2 overall horror starting gross of all time behind… It (which floated to $123.4 million out of the gate).

Angel Has Fallen was second with $5.9 million. My prediction? $5.9 million! Total is $53 million.

Good Boys took third at $5.4 million (I said $4.9 million) and it stands at a solid $66 million.

The Lion King was fourth with $4.3 million compared to my $3.8 million estimate for an overall massive tally of $529 million.

Hobbs & Shaw rounded out the top five with $3.8 million, ahead of my $3 million forecast. It’s up to $164 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Goldfinch Box Office Prediction

Based on a 2013 novel by Donna Tartt that elicited mixed reaction, The Goldfinch arrives in theaters next weekend. The drama is director John Crowley’s follow up to his Oscar nominated 2015 effort Brooklyn. Ansel Elgort headlines with a supporting cast that includes Oakes Fegley, Aneurin Barnard, Finn Wolfhard (currently also costarring in It Chapter Two), Sarah Paulson, Luke Wilson, Jeffrey Wright, and Nicole Kidman.

The film will have its premiere this weekend at the Toronto Film Festival. Interestingly, it skipped both Telluride and Venice. Those earlier screenings could have provided the opportunity for any awards chatter and I’m curious to see if Warner Bros knew that might not materialize.

For those unfamiliar with the source material, I’ve found the trailers to be a bit too mysterious and a tad lackluster. We’ll see if reviews this weekend could possibly change the dynamic, but I currently see The Goldfinch struggling to reach double digits. That unimpressive result would put it in third place behind the aforementioned It sequel and Hustlers.

The Goldfinch opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million

For my Hustlers prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/04/hustlers-box-office-prediction/

Hustlers Box Office Prediction

A group of actresses, many also known for their musical talents, play exotic dancers who take on wealthy Wall Street men in the dramedy Hustlers next weekend. Lorene Scafaria directs a cast led by Constance Wu (in his first big film role since breakout Crazy Rich Asians), Jennifer Lopez, Keke Palmer, Julia Stiles, Cardi B, Lili Reinhart, and Lizzo.

Based on a 2015 New York magazine article, Hustlers looks to tap into an often undeserved audience of minorities and women. It could be well positioned to do so. Wu and Lopez have their followers and I certainly wouldn’t underestimate the participation of Cardi B and Lizzo, who have consistently been producing Top 40 hits over the past few months.

The budget for the pic is reported to be between $20-$30 million and I believe that’s where the opening weekend should fall. If Hustlers tops $23 million, it would give Lopez her largest life action start ever (ahead of 2005’s Monster–in–Law). I’ll say it does and that would give it an impressive #2 debut behind the second frame of It Chapter Two.

Hustlers opening weekend prediction: $31.5 million

For my The Goldfinch prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/05/the-goldfinch-box-office-prediction/

September 6-8 Box Office Predictions

It’s all about It this weekend as the fall box office kicks off and Pennywise returns to terrorize The Losers Club in It Chapter Two. The Stephen King adapted sequel looks to dominate the marketplace with a potential nine figure debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/08/27/it-chapter-two-box-office-prediction/

Two years ago on the same post Labor Day frame, It blew away expectations with a massive $123.4 million premiere. Breaking the opening records for September and the horror genre, anticipation is certainly present for the follow up. Reviews aren’t quite as strong this time around and that could mean a slight dip. Yet I’m still going with a starting gross of over $100 million.

No studio bothered to provide direct competition, so the rest of the top 5 will be made up of summer holdovers. None of them should register in the double digits as the demonic clown will be the main attraction.

Here’s how I have the top five playing out:

1. It Chapter Two

Predicted Gross: $109.7 million

2. Angel Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

3. Good Boys

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

5. Hobbs & Shaw

Predicted Gross: $3 million

Box Office Results (August 30–September 2)

Before the It arrival, it was a typically quiet Labor Day weekend as Angel Has Fallen kept its place atop the charts with a four day gross of $15.3 million, a tad under my $16.1 million estimate. The two week total is $44 million.

Good Boys remained in second with $12.1 million (I said $13.1 million) for $59 million overall.

The summer season ruler Disney had The Lion King in third with $9.3 million, on par with my $9.8 million projection for $523 million in the coffers.

Hobbs & Shaw was fourth with $8.4 million compared to my $9.2 million prediction. Tally is $159 million.

Overcomer rounded out the top five at $7.7 million. I went higher with $9 million. The faith based sports drama has earned $19 million.

Finally, the David Oyelowo Blumhouse thriller Don’t Let Go tanked in 15th place with a meager $2.9 million. I was more generous at $4.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…