Well, it is the Christmas season and I was clearly being way too generous with my weekend’s box office predictions. All titles that I predicted came in lower than my estimations and many were considerably lower.
As expected, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey retained the #1 spot, but dropped off quite a bit more than my prediction in its second weekend. The Tolkien tale took in $36.7 million, dropping 56%. I predicted $49.1 million. Oops.
As predicted, Tom Cruise’s action thriller Jack Reacher took the runner-up spot, earning $15.6 million, lower than my $17.6 million projection.
As predicted, the Judd Apatow comedy This Is 40 took third, grossing $12 million, lower than my $15.7 million projection.
Where I really went wrong: grossly overestimating the openings of Disney’s 3D Monsters Inc. re-release and the Seth Rogen/Barbara Streisand comedy The Guilt Trip. I predicted they would fill the four and five slots, but the two pictures were sixth and seventh. The Guilt Trip grossed $5.3 million over the weekend and $7.4M since its Wednesday opening (way below my $8.9M/$11.6M projection). Even worse, I predicted $12.3M for Monsters with a five-day gross of $16.2M. Not even close – the re-release sputtered with a $5 million weekend opening and $6.5M over the five-day.
This left holdovers Rise of the Guardians to be fourth ($5.9M) and Lincoln at fifth ($5.6M).
It will be fascinating to see how these pictures hold up this week and into the weekend. Christmas Day, in particular, is usually a huge box office day and many of these titles could hold up quite well. Then there’s the fact that Les Miserables, Django Unchained, and Parental Guidance join the fray on Tuesday. I’ll be trying to make sense of it all for my next predictions post for the Christmas week and next weekend, which I’ll hopefully have up by tomorrow evening, so you can leave my predictions with Santa along with the milk and cookies.
We’re doing the box office predictions a day earlier than normal in Todd Thatcher blog land, because two of the four new films opening during this frame open tomorrow.
Both the Seth Rogen-Barbara Streisand comedy The Guilt Trip and Disney’s 3D re-release of Monsters Inc. open tomorrow to try and get a jump on the pre-Holiday box office frame.
On Friday, the Judd Apatow “sort of” Knocked Up sequel This Is 40 and the Tom Cruise action thriller Jack Reacher join the fray. Even with four new high-profile titles joining the fray, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is widely expected to retain its place at #1 for its second weekend. The real question is: how far will it drop? The film made over $84 million this past weekend and normally, a 50% drop would not be out of the ordinary. However, due to the holiday time frame, it may not quite drop that far.
It’s indeed that holiday time frame that makes it difficult to predict the openings of the new movies. The four opening this weekend will very likely occupy slots 2-5. The order will be interesting to see. High-profile December openings usually achieve a “slow burn”, where its actual opening doesn’t seem too big, but it’ll continue to experience smaller than normal dropoffs in following weekends. That is likely to be the case again this year and I would expect none of the new entries to gross over $20 million over the weekend.
Tom Cruise will have a real test of his box office strength with Reacher. His star has waned a bit in the last few years. For instance, 2010’s Knight and Day was a disappointment financially and this summer’s Rock of Ages didn’t perform well. He did have a massive hit a year ago with the fourth Mission: Impossible. His new film doesn’t have the built-in audience as his Ethan Hunt franchise. Reviews have been solid, but the trailers for Reacher don’t seem to set it apart too much from the crowd, in my opinion.
This is 40 is director Judd Apatow’s first film in three and a half years and reunites Paul Rudd and Leslie Mann, reprising their roles from 2007’s smash Knocked Up. Apatow’s last film, 2009’s Funny People, was a box office dud. I expect This is 40 to be neither a smash or a dud and fall somewhere in the middle. Its reviews have also been pretty positive.
I expect Disney’s 3D version of 2001’s Monsters Inc. to perform with roughly the same opening that their 3D Finding Nemo did in September, when it grossed $16 million.
Finally, The Guilt Trip doesn’t look very good, frankly, and its reviews have mostly reflected that. I don’t think it will perform as well as This Is 40, unless Rogen and Streisand’s fans really get out there. Not so sure.
And with all that said, here is this weekend’s box office predictions:
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Predicted Gross: $49.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)
2. Jack Reacher
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
3. This Is 40
Predicted Gross: $15.7 million
4. Monsters Inc.
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (predicting $16.2 for 4 day gross)
5. The Guilt Trip
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (predicting $11.6 for 4 day gross)
I’ll be back Sunday with results and even more predictions on either Monday or Tuesday, because even more movies open on Christmas, including Les Miserables, Django Unchained, and Parental Guidance. Stay tuned. Tis the season for LOTS of movies coming out at the same time!
It was the weekend for one debut and one debut only at the box office this weekend, Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit. There was little doubt it would set the all-time December opening weekend, which had been held by 2007’s I Am Legend.
The Hobbit broke that record, earning $84.8 million this weekend and earning a great “A” CinemaScore grade from audiences. Sooooo… what was my prediction? $84.8 million. I can’t believe it either, quite frankly. If you don’t believe me, here’s the link from Thursday:
The film will likely hold that December record one exactly one year, when the second Hobbit installment opens next Christmas season. All I know is you can bet money on opening weekends and I’m kicking myself for not doing so.
As for the other films, Rise of the Guardians was second with $7.4 million, slightly above my $6.9 projection. Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln held up better than expected, partly due to its big number of Golden Globe nominations. It earned $7.2 million, well past my $5.8M projection for third. Skyfall dropped to fourth with $7 million, higher than my $6.2M prediction. Life of Pi was fifth with $5.4 million, just below my $5.5M projection and The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 earned $5.2 million for sixth, slightly above my $4.9M projection.
Check back Thursday for next weekend’s projections, where a host of new titles will try to compete with Hobbit‘s second frame, including the Tom Cruise action thriller Jack Reacher, Judd Apatow’s comedy This is 40, the Seth Rogen/Barbara Streisand comedy The Guilt Trip, and Disney’s 3D re-release of Monsters Inc.
After two very quiet weeks at the box office where Thanksgiving leftovers dominated and two others films (Killing Them Softly and Playing for Keeps) came and went, the Christmas movie season officially gets underway with the release of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.
Director Peter Jackson kicks off his new trilogy of films based on Tolkien with one of the most eagerly anticipated titles of 2012. It will almost surely make more money this weekend than the rest of Top Ten combined. But how big is the question? It’s the director of the Lord of the Rings movies returning to Middle Earth. It’s been heavily hyped. On the flip side, it is not receiving quite the critical acclaim or awards buzz of Jackson’s first trilogy. Not to say that’ll keep the fans away because it won’t, but it may not open on the higher ends of expectations, which would be be over $100 million this weekend. The last Rings saga grossed $72 million in its inaugural weekend in 2003 and ticket prices have jumped since then, so it’s reasonable to expect Hobbit will open bigger. With a film this anticipated, anything less than $75 million would likely be a considerable disappointment. For whatever reason though, I am having a tough time envisioning it doing over $100 million (but I could be way wrong on this one).
Meanwhile, the Turkey Day leftovers will slide between 30-50% most likely. This weekend really is all about The Hobbit though. No studio dared to schedule competition against it. And with that, my predictions for the weekend:
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Predicted Gross: $84.8 million
2. Rise of the Guardians
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)
3. Skyfall
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)
4. Lincoln
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 35%)
5. Life of Pi
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)
6. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)
Sunday, we will see how right or wrong I am about that little hobbit. Stay tuned!
No major surprises this weekend with the box office results, but most films did better than my predictions and the dropoffs from last weekend were not as high as I anticipated.
Skyfall pulled off the rare feat of returning to the #1 spot in its fifth weekend after Twilight had been on top for the past three weeks. The all-time highest Bond grosser added another $11 million to its coffers, considerably higher than my meager $8.5M prediction.
Rise of the Guardians had the lowest drop-off at only 21%, putting it up to #2 with $10.5 million, higher than my $7.8M forecast.
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 ended its box office reign and dropped to third with $9.2 million, a million higher than my $8.2 million prediction.
Lincoln was fourth with $9.1M (I low balled with $7.4M) and Life of Pi was fifth with $8.3M (higher than my $7.3M forecast).
The critically panned Gerard Butler romantic comedy with come in sixth, as I predicted, with a disappointing $6 million. I gave it a little too much credit and predicted $7 million.
Predictions for next weekend will be up Thursday, when Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit invades theaters. Spoiler alert: I’m going to predict it opens at #1.
In what is sure to be another very slow weekend at the box office (just like last weekend’s post Thanksgiving frame), there is only one new entry opening: the romantic comedy Playing for Keeps, starring Gerard Butler. The film, quite honestly, looks indistinguishable from most other bad romantic comedies and it sits at precisely 0% on RottenTomatoes. Wow. Do not expect this one to do much business.
Or much of anything else for that matter. The top five films from last weekend could very likely be the top five again. Do not expect any of them to have the percentage drop-off they had last weekend, when most films tumble from the huge Thanksgiving frame. It appears that those movies may be tightly bunched together with what they make during this slow weekend, which makes it somewhat interesting to predict what #1 will be.
Next weekend is when the real Christmas box office battles heat up, with The Hobbit opening and a number of other high-profile flicks to follow right before Christmas or on the holiday. Until then, it’s still leftovers and an awful looking new rom-com.
With that, here’s my official predictions for the close race:
1. Skyfall
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
2. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 54%)
3. Rise of the Guardians
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)
4. Lincoln
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 45%)
5. Life of Pi
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 40%)
The results are in for the typically slow post-Thanksgiving weekend and no real surprises here. As expected, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 and Skyfall battled for #1 spot, with the vampire flick edging out Bond. Twilight earned $17.4 (slightly above my $17.1M projection), with 007 at #2 with $17 million (slightly above my $16.7M). Lincoln came in third with $13.5 million, not holding up quite as well as I predicted (I guessed $15.4M). Rise of the Guardians held up slightly better than I predicted, grossing $13.5 million for fourth place (I predicted $12.8M). And Life of Pi dipped a bit more than I predicted – it made $12 million for fifth place (I predicted $13M).
I wrote that Brad Pitt’s Killing Them Softly would struggle to reach double digits and predicted $9.6 million. It actually fared much worse, only grossing $7 million, representing Pitt’s worst live action opening in 18 years for a pathetic seventh place. Ouch.
Disney’s Wreck It Ralph was in sixth with $7 million and Red Dawn placed eighth with $6.5 million, just slightly above my $6 million projection.
New predictions for next weekend will be up Thursday!
The box office weekend that follows the holiday Thanksgiving weekend in typically one of the slowest movie frames of the calendar year. The reasoning is pretty understandable: lots of families and others take the time on that long weekend to check out a movie, as evidenced by this year’s record breaking Turkey weekend.
The post-Thanksgiving weekend is usually not a time when studios unveil any major new releases. Their November blockbusters are still in their second or third weekends and their big Christmas releases are coming soon. This weekend will see only two studio releases: Brad Pitt’s crime thriller Killing Them Softly and the severely under marketed horror flick The Collection.
Most Holiday holdovers will experience up to 50-60% drop-offs from the previous holiday weekend, if history stays true. This may leave a legitimate battle for the #1 spot this weekend between The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 and Skyfall. There is a good possibility that Lincoln and Life of Pi will experience smaller declines than the contenders for #1 and #2 and could sneak in to those spots, but it seems unlikely. And there’s the question of the animated feature Rise of the Guardians, which opened well below industry expectations last weekend. Will it continue to falter at the box office and or will parents and kids see it the second weekend around? I expect it will have a decline pretty similar to the other movies and not improve its standing as a box office disappointment.
Killing Them Softly, starring Brad Pitt and James Gandolfini, doesn’t seem to be generating a whole lot of enthusiasm, even though its reviews so far have been quite strong. I don’t know if its trailers will do much, however, to bring audiences out and I suspect it will open outside the Top 5 and struggle to open in double digits.
The Collection is a horror film that its studio doesn’t seem to have a whole lot of faith in and I predict it will bomb.
With all that context, here’s my predictions for the weekend:
1. The Twilight Saga, Breaking Dawn 2
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 61%)
2. Skyfall
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)
3. Lincoln
Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 40%)
4. Life of Pi
Predicted Gross: $13 million (representing a drop of 42%)
5. Rise of the Guardians
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)
6. Killing Them Softly
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
As far as the other release from last weekend, Red Dawn performed above expectations, but I will predict a pretty hefty drop at 58%, giving it a second weekend gross of $6 million.
There ya go, bloggers and blogettes. Sunday, I’ll bring you the real numbers!
Thanksgiving weekend 2012 will go down as the biggest Turkey Day frame in Hollywood history, with the majority of movies exceeding my forecasts, with one very notable exception.
I predicted that The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 would remain at #1 and it did. However, it outperformed my forecast, grossing $64 million (I said $61.4M).
James Bond remained #2, with Skyfall grossing an astonishing $51 million in its third weekend (I only predicted $33.5M). Clearly, moviegoers were in the mood for 007 and I suspect some of it was repeat viewings. Already the highest grossing Bond film ever, expectations for 2014’s Bond will be high after the critical and audience smash that this one has become.
Lincoln had an incredible second weekend. Grossing $34.1 million over the five-day (I predicted $31.2M), Steven Spielberg’s drama has captured the love of audiences and is a frontrunner for Best Picture, along with Argo and probably Les Miserables.
The real suprise this weekend is the lackluster performance the animated Rise of the Guardians. Most analysts (including me) assumed it would open at #2 and perhaps even challenge Twilight for the top spot. It stumbled out of the gate – grossing $32.6 million over the frame. I predicted $53.8 million. There is no doubt that Guardians is subpar compared to most animated openings and it will need to have strong legs over the next few weekends. If not, it will surely be considered a major disappointment.
Opening strong at #5 is another Oscar contender, Ang Lee’s Life of Pi, which overperformed expectations as well. I predicted $24.4 million, but Pi grossed $30.2M. Expect it to have strong legs in the weeks ahead too.
Disney’s Wreck-It-Ralph was sixth in its fourth weekend, grossing a better than expected $23 million, higher than my $18.5M forecast.
I was right about Red Dawn opening seventh, but it also performed way better than expected. The remake of the 1980s action flick grossed a solid $22 million, much higher than my $14 million prediction.
Finally, while I did not predict a gross for David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook, starring Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, and Robert De Niro, the Oscar contender performed well in its limited opening – #9, grossing $4.6 million on only 367 screens. Playbook will expand next weekend and could see solid results in the weeks ahead.
So there you have it – unless you’re Dreamworks who distributed Guardians – this was a great weekend for movie studios and a record-making Turkey Day weekend. I’ll post box office predictions on Thursday for next weekend!
The long Thanksgiving weekend is always a huge box office weekend and 2012 looks to be no exception – with the second week of Twilight and Lincoln, the third weekend of Skyfall, and the debut of three new titles – Rise of the Guardians, Life of Pi, and Red Dawn.
It’s certainly a crowded marketplace and not everything can do great, can it? For The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2, the film did not set the all-time Twilight opening record this past weekend, but still managed the eighth biggest debut of all time. To determine how it will hold up over the five-day turkey weekend, there is certainly precedence. Both New Moon and last year’s Breaking Dawn Part 1 opened in the mid-November weekend prior to Thanksgiving and both of those titles dropped approximately 70% during the holiday time frame. There is very little reason to suspect the final Twilight won’t follow a very similar trajectory.
That will probably be enough for the vampire saga to remain #1 at the box office, but it does face serious competition from the new Dreamworks animated feature Rise of the Guardians, which features Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and the Tooth Fairy as an Avengers type team (pretty cool concept, I must admit). With Wreck-It-Ralph now in its fourth weekend, kids should be primed for something else to drag their parents to. Guardians has received positive reviews and looks to have an impressive debut.
There could be a real battle for #3 between 007, Abe Lincoln, and Pi. Skyfall had a much smaller drop than its predecessor Quantum of Solace and its five-day gross might not be dramatically lower than its low-40s gross over the weekend.
Life of Pi, directed by Ang Lee and receiving Oscar buzz, is based on a well-loved book whose readers might make a trip to the theater this weekend. Pi is similar to Argo and Lincoln in the sense that its opening may not be mind-blowing, but it could have strong legs in the weeks ahead into Academy Awards season.
The real curiosity this weekend is Lincoln. It got off to a fantastic start with $21 million over the weekend on a relatively small number of screens. As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, I believe Lincoln has the real possibility of grossing quite a bit more over the Thanksgiving frame than its initial weekend. For one, it just seems like the type of film that families may go see over the break. I need look no further than my own – where my parents, my sister and brother-in-law, and I are planning a Friday trip to see it. Secondly, Lincoln is bound to capitalize on its terrific response from audiences this past weekend – it received a Cinemascore grade of “A”. Those who’ve seen it are telling their friends to see it – trust me, I know.
Finally, this weekend brings us the debut of Red Dawn, a remake of a 1980s cult classic. The film was shot a couple of years ago and shelved due to MGM’s financial difficulties. It does feature well-known stars Chris Hemsworth (The Avengers) and Josh Hutcherson (The Hunger Games), but the reviews have been negative and the field may simply be too crowded for this to do any big business.
With all that as context, here are my predictions for box office grosses from Wednesday, November 21 through Sunday, November 25:
1. The Twilight Saga, Breaking Dawn Part 2
Predicted Gross: $61.4 million
2. Rise of the Guardians
Predicted Gross: $53.8 million
3. Skyfall
Predicted Gross: $33.5 million
4. Lincoln
Predicted Gross: $31.2 million
5. Life of Pi
Predicted Gross: $24.4 million
6. Wreck-It-Ralph
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million
7. Red Dawn
Predicted Gross: $14 million
There they are and I’ll post the updates on actual grosses Sunday night. In the meantime, I’m looking to post some new blog material over the holiday weekend! And thanks to those of you who have “liked” this blog’s new Facebook page. Please know that I “like” you all too!!
