No one doubted that we were going to see a huge weekend at the box office and we did. On Thursday, I made my weekly box office predictions. For three of the four pictures, I overestimated a bit. For the other, I underestimated (hint: 16th President).

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 was gunning for a Top Ten All-Time opening and it achieved that. The film opened to $141.3 million, good for the eighth best opening of all time and fourth best of 2012, behind The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, and The Hunger Games. However, it did not achieve the distinction of highest Twilight opening ever, which still belongs to New Moon at $142.8 million. This is a bit of a surprise, as most analysts (including this blogger) figured it would have the biggest opening in the franchise. I (over) predicted a gross of $153.8 million.

It’s hard to say a $141.3 million opening is disappointing and it’s truly not. It’s just a bit below a lot of projections, including my own. The final Harry Potter film easily had the greatest opening in its series, so it stood to reason that the last adventure of Edward, Bella, and Jacob would too. But it wasn’t to be.

I predicted Skyfall would fall 51% in its second weekend. It dropped slightly more – 53% – for a second week gross of $41.5 million. That’s still a terrific holdup, considering steep competition and the fact that the last Bond, Quantum of Solace, dropped 60% in its second frame. Even more impressively, Skyfall is already the highest grossing 007 picture ever worldwide. Amazing.

I wrongly predicted Disney’s Wreck-It-Ralph would be #3 this weekend and drop only 36%. It dropped more (45%) and grossed $18.3 million in its third weekend. Ralph is a major hit for Disney, though.

Other than Twilight having an all-time Top Ten debut, the other major story this weekend is Lincoln. I predicted a #4 debut with a gross of $18.1 million. That gross would’ve been considered very good, since its playing on a relatively low number of screens and is expected to do well not just on its opening weekend, but for the weekends to come. It outperformed my expectations and most others, opening third to $21 million. This is a fantastic opening. It received a grade of “A” from Cinemascore (audience polls), indicating it’s got a wonderful road ahead. I’ll avoid making the Lincoln/theater joke because you’ll see that everywhere else. What this means is that Lincoln and Argo are locked in a serious competition for what will win Best Picture (as I’ve mentioned before, Les Miserables could join that list too). Lincoln is bound to hold up very well over the Thanksgiving holiday.

I’ll be making next weekend’s predictions likely on Tuesday this week, since the new releases open Wednesday due to the holiday weekend. Stay tuned.

First things first: this is going be an enormous weekend at the box office. 

Reason #1: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2. The final installment of the franchise based on the bestselling novels had high expectations, to say the least. How high? If it doesn’t have one of the Top Ten biggest debuts of all time, that would be considered a disappointment. 

For some context, two of the last three Twilight installments currently sit at #7 and #8 of all-time opening weekends. Seventh is 2009’s New Moon, which made $142.8 million and eighth is Breaking Dawn Part I, which took in $138.1 million in the same weekend last year. 2010’s Eclipse, which came in between those two, opened on a Wednesday over the July 4th weekend and took in $176 million over that time frame.

Recent history tells us that the last opening has a great chance of being the biggest yet. In 2010, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I made $125 million in 2010. Its follow-up (which was the final Potter) made $169 million and currently sits at #2 of all-time openings.

With this being the last time audiences get to watch Edward, Bella, and Jacob – fans are bound to rush out right away and see it. However, I have a hard time seeing it grossing the amount of money that the last Potter made over its predecessor. I suspect Breaking Dawn, Part 2 will take in only slightly more than New Moon did three years ago, but still have the designation of biggest Twilight opening. 

This weekend’s two slot will undoubtedly be Skyfall, which broke the all-time Bond opening last weekend by a lot, earning $88.3 million. As I mentioned in a previous post, Skyfall is already considered one of the greatest 007 films ever and its second weekend drop-off will probably not be as steep as 2008’s Quantum of Solace, which dropped 60% in its 2nd weekend. A 50% drop seems more likely.

Then we get to Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln, whose box office prospects I wrote about extensively earlier this week. In that blog post, I wrote that I expected the film to gross anywhere between $18-$38 million. I also mentioned that it was opening on only 1500 screens, which is a low number for an opening weekend. After writing my blog, I researched that screen number a little more closely and I am now very confident in stating that $38 million is out of the questions. For that matter, $28 million seems highly unlikely too. With the massive competition it’s facing, I expect Lincoln to debut on the lower spectrum of what I said earlier… and maybe less. It could open at #3, but it’s more likely to be number four, behind the third weekend of Wreck-It-Ralph.

With all that context, here are my official predictions for the box office this weekend. I’ll report back Sunday and tell you how smart or dumb I am:

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2

Predicted Gross: $153.8 million

2. Skyfall

Predicted Gross: $43.4 million (representing a drop of 51%)

3. Wreck-It-Ralph

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)

4. Lincoln

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million

Yes, that’s about as low as you can get on the scale I gave you earlier this week about Lincoln, but that will still be considered a rock solid opening on 1500 screens and I suspect it will continue to play well week to week, just like Argo is currently doing.

Along with Argo, it seems to be the frontrunner for winning Best Picture this year. It sits at 93% right now on Rotten Tomatoes. The performances are also being talked about as Award-worthy, with lead Daniel Day-Lewis possibly becoming the first performer in Oscar history to win three Best Actor awards. Its directed by the most-famous director in the world, Steven Spielberg. 

But how will Lincoln, opening wide this Friday, do at the box office? I’ll make a formal prediction on Thursday, but I’m writing this post today because the honest answer is… it’s kinda hard to tell. 

For starters, there’s competition out there. Serious competition. Skyfall had an enormous opening over the weekend. It already has the reputation (took only a week) of being one of the greatest Bond movies ever. Its second weekend drop-off will likely not be as steep as the last 007 adventure Quantum of Solace, which tumbled over 60% in its sophomore frame. Even if it drops fifty percent, it’ll still gross nearly $45 million next weekend.

And then there’s the only major release this weekend… The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2. The final installment of this hugely successful franchise is certainly going to be #1 this weekend. Part I opened last year in the same weekend to a $138 million opening weekend, representing the fifth biggest movie opening ever at the time. It now sits at #8, after The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, and The Hunger Games opened bigger this year. There’s no reason to believe Part 2 won’t have a similar opening or maybe even a bigger opening. The final Harry Potter film in 2011 had the biggest opening weekend of the franchise and sits at #2 of all time openings (it was #1 until Avengers). So, its certainly possible audiences will rush out to see the last Twilight right away.

This all certainly leaves Lincoln looking at the #3 spot in its inaugural weekend. The main question I have is this: will Lincoln be a movie people want to rush out and see the first weekend? Will older audiences simply wait until the upcoming Thanksgiving weekend when they have time off from work? 

It is possible that Lincoln will follow the box office performance of Argo, having a solid first weekend and then experiencing small drop-offs from weekend to weekend. Or maybe its gross on turkey weekend may actually surpass the opening weekend, which is very rare for any picture to do. 

When making box office predictions, there’s usually about a $5 million dollar window either way in which I think a film will open. This is not the case with Lincoln. I could see it grossing anywhere from $18-$38 million. That’s rare having such a wide discrepancy. One major factor: Lincoln is only opening on approximately 1500 screens. For some context, the new Twilight will open on over 4000 screens. A gross of $38 million on that few screens would be astonishing.

What also makes predicting Lincoln tough for me? In the environment I work in, nearly everyone I know is dying to see it. This probably isn’t a fair representation of the general public (certainly not teenage to 20 something girls who will spend their weekend watching vampires hunters who are NOT Abe Lincoln). Certainly not the many moviegoers who will catch James Bond due to its hugely positive word-of-mouth. 

I’ll make my prediction Thursday, but I might be way off. We shall see.

On Thursday, I made my maiden attempt to attempt box office results and I must say, coulda been worse!

I purposely avoided reading the top box office prognosticators before making my picks, so I wouldn’t be influenced by them, which I’ll do every week now.

Everyone knew Skyfall would have a massive opening, but how big was the question. I predicted $82.3 million for the weekend and most other guesses were in the high 70s up to 80 million. It appears that Skyfall actually earned $87.8 million ($90M when factoring in Thursday night grosses), making it by far the biggest Bond opening of all time. With its already huge grosses overseas, the film is certain to become the highest grossing 007 feature ever. As if there was any doubt, audiences can be assured they’ll be seeing Mr. Craig as Mr. Bond for quite a while.

I also predicted the grosses for the weekend #2 and #3 films, which were both in their second weekends. Disney’s Wreck-It-Ralph grossed $33.1 million, slightly less than my $34.5M prediction. Ditto for Robert Zemeckis’s Flight, which earned $15.1M, a little smaller than my $16.2M prediction.

Next Thursday, my predictions will be made that will include the 2nd weekend for 007 and the first wide release weekend for Steven Spielberg’s eagerly-awaited Lincoln.

 

And now, a new feature on the blog in which I will predict the box office results for the weekend every Thursday. 

This weekend, we have one new opening and it’s a massive one at that: the new 007 flick Skyfall. The film has received some of the best reviews of any Bond film ever and the anticipation for it has been growing. Overseas, where it opened a couple of weeks ago, it has drawn in massive box office figures. It’s been four years since 007 has graced the screen, double the time of waiting between the first two Daniel Craig features, Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace. 

The last, Solace, opened to $67 million four years ago, but I expect more from this outing.

We also have the second weekends of last week’s #1 and #2 movies, Wreck-It Ralph and Flight. Both were critically acclaimed hits and grossed $49 million and $24.9 million, respectively. Additionally, both seemed to be audience pleasers and figure to have relatively small drop-offs, even with the huge debut of Bond this weekend. So here goes and I’ll report back Sunday to see how well or horribly I did with my prognostication. 

Weekend of November 9-11

1. Skyfall

Predicted Gross: $82.3 million

2. Wreck-It Ralph

Predicted Gross: $34.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)

3. Flight

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)