Originally scheduled for an autumn release, Lee Daniels’ The Butler was pushed up to summer and the Weinstein Company seems to think they have a hit on their hands. Do they? Just maybe.

The picture tells the real life story of a White House butler (Forest Whitaker) who worked at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. from the Eisenhower to Reagan administrations. We’ve got an array of well-known actors playing historical figures that includes John Cusack as President Nixon, James Marsden as President Kennedy, Liev Schreiber as President Johnson, Alan Rickman as President Reagan, Robin Williams as President Eisenhower, and Jane Fonda as Nancy Reagan.

And… there’s the Oprah factor. Ms. Winfrey plays the butler’s wife and this marks the media mogul’s first major film role since 1998’s Beloved. Her participation in this project alone is likely to get some of her followers to the theater.

A historical pic opening in August is certainly a gamble that the studio is hoping will pay off. The Butler has a couple of things going for it: it seems to be garnering positive reviews so far and audiences may be ready for a more adult-themed experience in the midst of endless sci-fi and superhero flicks. Additionally, The Butler is one of the only movies this season that is marketed to an African-American audience and that should help. This spring, the Jackie Robinson biopic 42 exceeded expectations with a $27 million opening weekend. Could The Butler open in that ballpark?

I would say the low of expectations would be in the $15-$18 million dollar range and the high end would be the $27M that 42 garnered. My prediction is that The Butler opens in the middle of that range and could have a nice run in subsequent weeks if audiences respond well to it.

Lee Daniels’ The Butler box office prediction: $21.7 million

For my prediction on Kick-Ass 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/kick-ass-2-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Paranoia, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/paranoia-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Jobs, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/jobs-box-office-prediction/

In a weekend where four new pictures entered the marketplace, I did manage to get the order of the top five called correctly. However, one film in particular managed to easily surpass my expectations, while the others debuted more or less in line with my predictions.

Neill Blomkamp’s sci-fi actioner Elysium with Matt Damon took the #1 position with $30.5 million, a bit below my $33.7M estimate. Elysium is the highly publicized Blomkamp follow-up to his 2009 breakthrough District 9. Reviews were decent though not as strong as the aforementioned predecessor, which was nominated for Best Picture and took in $115 million domestically. Elysium received a B Cinemascore grade, which generally indicates audiences weren’t wild about what they saw. The pic will likely suffer a hefty drop next weekend and it appears unlikely it will match District‘s haul stateside.

It was the #2 debut that took me by surprise. We’re the Millers, the raunchy comedy with Jennifer Aniston and Jason Sudeikis, had a rock solid start with $26.6 million over Friday-to-Sunday and $38 million since its Wednesday opening. That is well above my predictions of $19.4M over the traditional weekend and $27.2M over the five day. Clearly, Millers marketing campaign worked and crowds were ready to see a new comedy.

Disney’s Planes opened in third with a decent though unspectacular $22.5 million, which did exceed my $19.4M prediction. The weekend’s other kid flick had a fair debut as the sequel Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters grossed $14.6 million over Friday-to-Sunday and $23.5 million since its Wednesday start. Its traditional weekend take was slightly lower than my $15.8M estimate while its five day gross was slightly higher than my $21.9M prediction.

In the five spot, last weekend’s champ 2 Guns with Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg dropped further than I figured in its second weekend with $11.1 million (I said $14.3M).

And there’s your results! And now begins the work of predicting next weekend’s four new flicks: Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Kick-Ass 2, Paranoia, and Jobs. I’ll have those up on the blog soon enough.

It’s an incredibly busy weekend at the box office coming up with four releases out between Wednesday and Friday. They are: the Neill Blomkamp sci-fi actioner Elysium with Matt Damon, the raunchy comedy We’re the Millers with Jennifer Aniston and Jason Sudeikis, Disney’s animated Planes, and the family friendly sequel Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters.

Per usual, I wrote extensive blog posts on all four titles which can be found linked below:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/elysium-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/were-the-millers-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/planes-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/percy-jackson-sea-of-monsters-box-office-prediction/

It is my belief that these four new pics will occupy the top four spots at the box office this weekend. Barring a major upset, Elysium should take top honors. Then it gets a little murky. I’m predicting Percy Jackson has a disappointing opening because I simply don’t think audiences are clamoring for a sequel. As you can see from my predictions, I’m predicting a photo finish between We’re the Millers and Planes for #2.

Last weekend’s champ 2 Guns will likely fall to fifth, unless one of the newbies really performs below expectations or The Smurfs 2 has an incredibly solid hold after a lackluster #3 debut last weekend.

And with that, my top five predictions:

1. Elysium

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million

2. We’re the Millers

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million ($27.2 million projected five-day gross)

3. Planes

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

4. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million ($21.9 million projected five-day gross)

5. 2 Guns

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)

Be sure to check out http://boxofficeace.com/ where you can make your own predictions and try to beat me! And this coming weekend, I’ll have updates on the Facebook page with final results on the blog Sunday!

Disney’s Planes marks yet another animated feature competing for box office dollars this summer. We have seen family audiences perhaps beginning to be overwhelmed with a glut of product recently. Both Turbo and The Smurfs 2 have posted softer than expected numbers.

I’m not so sure Planes will reverse that trend. It was originally planned as a direct-to-DVD release before Disney changed their minds. Planes is a spin-off of the successful Cars franchise so there could be some built-in audience waiting.

Ultimately, Planes doesn’t look like the kind of animated event picture that Monsters University and Despicable Me 2 were earlier in the season. It could certainly exceed expectations, but if Smurfs 2 could only muster $27 million in five days, that probably doesn’t bode well here.

Planes opening weekend prediction: $19.1 million

For my prediction on the opening for Elysium, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/elysium-box-office-prediction/

For Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/percy-jackson-sea-of-monsters-box-office-prediction/

For We’re the Millers, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/were-the-millers-box-office-prediction/

Jennifer Aniston and Jason Sudeikis headline the comedy We’re the Millers, opening Wednesday. The pic basically looks like a Vacation knockoff but who knows? It could have some funny moments and the trailers aren’t terrible. How’s that for faint praise?

The two stars have had luck collaborating before. In the summer of 2011, Aniston and Sudeikis were featured in Horrible Bosses, which grossed $28 million in its opening weekend and went to gross $117 million domestically. Those numbers would be heavenly for Warner Bros., especially considering the pic’s meager $30 million budget.

We’re the Millers probably won’t do Horrible Bosses numbers in its eventual gross, unless audiences really dig it and it develops solid legs in subsequent weekends. Still, with no other comedies really out there (The Heat and Grown Ups 2 have earned their cash by now), Millers could post solid numbers. I’d say a five-day gross in the mid to upper 20s is the most likely scenario.

We’re the Millers opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $27.2 million (five-day opening)

For my prediction on the opening for Elysium, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/elysium-box-office-prediction/

For Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/percy-jackson-sea-of-monsters-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Disney’s Planes, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/planes-box-office-prediction/

Another family friendly sequel hits multiplexes this week as Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters opens Wednesday. Just this weekend, we saw audiences basically reject The Smurfs 2 as it had a $27.7 million five-day opening. That’s $8 million less than the original opened at in its first three days.

So the question is… are family audiences pumped to see a Percy Jackson sequel? I’m certainly not convinced. In February 2010, Percy Jackson&The Olympians: The Lightning Thief grossed an impressive $38.8 million over a four-day holiday weekend and went on to gross $88 million domestically. A good performance, yes, but not the kind of gross that automatically warrants a sequel.

As we saw with The Smurfs 2, family audiences may simply be overwhelmed. They’ve had plenty to choose from this summer with Epic, Monsters University, Despicable Me 2, Turbo, The Smurfs 2 and so forth. Also, this Friday, Planes opens and that will serve as direct competition for Percy.

I believe Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters will be a disappointment and earn far less in its five-day gross than the original did in four days.

Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million ($21.9 million over the five-day)

For my prediction on the Elysium opening, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/elysium-box-office-prediction/

For my We’re the Millers prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/were-the-millers-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Disney’s Planes, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/planes-box-office-prediction/

For many movie lovers, August 9th has been an eagerly awaited date on the summer calendar as Neill Blomkamp’s Elysium opens up. The director made a splash in the summer of 2009 when District 9 opened to rave reviews and robust box office (it got a Best Picture nomination too).

Elysium is a futuristic sci-fi thriller starring Matt Damon and Jodie Foster. So far, its reviews have been mixed and it certainly isn’t receiving the love from critics that District 9 did.

As I see it, the $90 million budgeted pic is a bit of a question mark. Audiences have certainly had no shortage of sci-fi action flicks to watch this season. Will Elysium break out of the pack the way World War Z did with a $200 million gross? My thinking is it will not.

A more likely scenario is that Elysium performs similar to Pacific Rim, another hotly anticipated fanboy pic. That film opened to $37.2 million in July and I see Elysium doing around that number. I’ll say it does slightly less but in the ballpark.

Elysium opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million

For my prediction on Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/percy-jackson-sea-of-monsters-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on We’re the Millers, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/were-the-millers-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Planes, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/04/planes-box-office-prediction/

As predicted, it was Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg atop the box office this weekend with 2 Guns. The pic earned a decent $27.4 million in its debut, just shy of my $28.9M projection. As you can see, this was right in line with most estimates, including my own.

It was The Smurfs 2 that was this weekend’s disappointment. The sequel came in below expectations, with $18.2 million over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of the weekend and $27.8 million since its Wednesday opening. That is well below my projections of $25.7M over the traditional weekend and $38.2M for the five-day. Family audiences may have just been overwhelmed by the volume of titles catering to them over the past couple of months and many decided to sit this one out.

The disappointing Smurfs performance allowed The Wolverine to come in second. Hugh Jackman’s superhero pic made $21.7 million in its sophomore frame, below my $24M estimate. Rounding out the top five, The Conjuring held up slightly better than my projection with $13.7 million (I said $12.4M) and Despicable Me 2 was fifth with $10.4 million (on target with my $10.3M estimate).

Stay tuned for plenty of projections for next weekend’s openings on the blog tonight as Elysium, We’re the Millers, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, and Planes all debut.

This weekend sees the release of two new pictures as the Denzel Washington/Mark Wahlberg action flick 2 Guns opens against The Smurfs 2. This could be a real battle for top spot and you can find my predictions for both movies below:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/28/2-guns-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/28/the-smurfs-2-box-office-prediction/

If both titles don’t measure up to my predictions, there’s a small chance last weekend’s champ The Wolverine could retain the top spot. The pic had the lowest opening of any of the six X-Men titles in the franchise so far. Earning $53 million, The Wolverine was in the same ballpark as 2011’s X-Men: First Class, which debuted with $55 million. That pic then dropped 56% in its sophomore frame and I look for the new Logan adventure to drop roughly the same.

Rounding out the top five, I look for audience and critical favorite The Conjuring to continue to hold nicely (especially for a horror flick) and Despicable Me 2 to continue its terrific run.

Since Smurfs 2 opens on Wednesday, I believe that will allow 2 Guns to nab the #1 spot for the weekend, even though Papa Smurf and friends should have a solid debut, based on my projections.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. 2 Guns

Predicted Gross: $28.9 million

2. The Smurfs 2

Predicted Gross: $25.7 million ($38.2 million projected five-day gross)

3. The Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $24 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. The Conjuring

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. Despicable Me 2

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 38%)

That’s all for now, folks! Don’t forget to go to http://www.boxofficeace.com to play along with me and make your own predictions! I’ll have updates on the Facebook page throughout the weekend with final results Sunday.

Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg headline the action flick 2 Guns opening Friday. The pic will attempt to continue the trend of solid performing genre titles for Mr. Washington and also try to reverse a rather disappointing 2013 for Mr. Wahlberg so far.

As for Denzel, let’s take a look at the opening weekends for his last four action pics, shall we?

Safe House: $40.1 million

Unstoppable: $22.6 million

The Book of Eli: $32.7 million

The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3: $23.3 million

You can see that 2 Guns is most likely to perform somewhere between $20-$40 million. The biggest opener, Safe House, debuted better than expectations last year and that’s certainly a possibility here. However, it also wouldn’t shock me to see 2 Guns open in the same range as Unstoppable and Pelham (low to mid 20s).

As for Wahlberg, he has followed up last summer’s smash comedy Ted with a pair of lackluster 2013 titles: Broken City and Pain and Gain. His teaming with Washington certainly marks the best opportunity for a hit this year.

Honestly, this is a tough one. Adult audiences might be primed for an action title with dependable stars that isn’t based on a comic book. I believe 2 Guns performing somewhere in the high 20s to low 30s is the most likely scenario.

2 Guns opening weekend prediction: $28.9 million

For my prediction on this week’s other newcomer, The Smurfs 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/28/the-smurfs-2-box-office-prediction/