Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

Box Office Predictions: November 15-17

Let’s call this upcoming weekend at the box office “the one between the openings of the Thor and Hunger Games sequels” as only one picture debuts. It’s another sequel – The Best Man Holiday, the follow-up to 1999’s The Best Man. I think it will be assured the #2 spot. You can read my prediction post on it here:

 

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/10/the-best-man-holiday-box-office-prediction/

Thor: The Dark World should easily remain #1 before The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opens the following weekend. I would expect the Marvel megahit to lose over half its business in its sophomore frame. As for other holdovers, I see Free Birds having the smallest drop and remaining in the three spot while comedies Last Vegas and Bad Grandpa fill out the rest of the top five.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five box office:

1. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $39.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

2. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

3. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 19%)

4. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

I’ll have an update on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!

 

The Best Man Holiday Box Office Prediction

This coming weekend was supposed to see the debut of Martin Scorsese’s eagerly awaited The Wolf of Wall Street, but the title ended up getting pushed back to Christmas Day to allow the director more time to tinker. It surely would have opened in the number two spot.

Therefore, we have only one new picture opening and it’s The Best Man Holiday, a sequel to 1999’s The Best Man. The original pic grossed a solid $34 million fourteen years ago (it only had a $9M budget). Starring Taye Diggs, Nia Long, Terrence Howard, Morris Chestnut, Regina Hall, and Sanaa Lathan, the holiday themed comedy/drama will attempt to bring in a large contingent of African-American audiences to the multiplex.

Its prospects look pretty decent. The stars of the film are certainly more well-known today than they were several years ago and there’s really no direct competition for its demographic. If something like Baggage Claim can make $9 million in its debut, The Best Man Holiday should easily surpass that. I could envision this getting as high as low 20s, as several of Tyler Perry’s recent productions have. It could also be somewhere in the mid-teens. With that range stated, I’ll go in the middle of it and say it earns high teens for a solid second place debut after weekend #2 for Thor.

The Best Man Holiday opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million

Box Office Results: November 8-10

Disney/Marvel’s Thor: The Dark World opened as expected, posting the fourth highest debut of 2013 with $86.1 million. This is right in line with my $85.6M prediction so I’ll give myself a nice pat on the back for this one! Thor benefited from the continued Avengers momentum and the rock solid opening bodes well for next spring’s Captain America sequel.

While I am pleased with my Thor prediction, the same cannot be said for my estimate for About Time, the rom com with Rachel McAdams. I predicted it would earn $12.8 million, but also noted in my post that it could tank. And tank it did with a dismal $5.1 million debut for only 9th place.

As for the rest of the top five, it was Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa second again with $11.3 million (I was right there with $11.2M predicted). The animated Free Birds was in the #3 slot with $11.2 million, just above my $10.4M projection. The all-star comedy Last Vegas was fourth with $11.1 million (I said $11M… pat back again). I was, however, off with the performance of Ender’s Game in its sophomore frame. I predicted the sci-fi pic would hold up reasonably well and make $13.6 million. It dropped to #5 with $10.3M. It’s safe to say this one is now a box office disappointment.

And there’s your results! Be sure to check the blog later today for my prediction post on next weekend’s only newcomer, The Best Man Holiday.

Can Ron Burgundy Break Box Office Records?

With constantly running Durango commercials featuring its star and trailers that seem to be breathlessly anticipated as soon as they hit the Internet, the following question may already be fair to ask:

Will Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues have the biggest comedy opening of all time?

The sequel is out December 20th and for the next two months, we’ll see Ron Burgundy (Will Ferrell) hawking those cars on TV in between football games and our favorite shows. We’ll also be constantly watching the series of YouTube trailers that have been released and will continue to be released.

Anchorman 2 is in a unique position to vie for that throne. The 2004 original was a hit – but not a massive hit. It grossed $85.2 million domestically – less than other Ferrell movies Elf, Talladega Nights, Blades of Glory, Step Brothers, The Other Guys, and The Campaign. 

However, few comedies have achieved the massive beloved status that Anchorman has. It’s probably the most quoted comedy of the last decade – only Napoleon Dynamite from the same year comes close in my view. Some of the costars of the original – namely Steve Carell and Paul Rudd – have become big stars in their own right since its release. Put simply, this sequel is highly anticipated – and its marketing campaign has been outstanding so far.

If Anchorman 2 were have the biggest comedy opening ever, it would need to beat another eagerly awaited sequel in the genre – The Hangover Part II, which earned $85.9 million in its opening weekend in 2011. You’ll note that if that were achieved – that would mean Anchorman 2 would make more in its first three days than the original did in its entire domestic theatrical run. There is precedent for that. In 1997, Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery was a cult hit that earned $53 million in its whole run. In the two years that followed, that film became a sensation (and also endlessly quoted much like Anchorman). In 1999, its sequel The Spy Who Shagged Me made $54 million in its opening three days.

That could happen here and if it did – Ron, Brian, Champ, and Brick can claim opening weekend comedy dominance. We’re still a few weeks away and I’m not sure if it will. If it did – that would kind of be a big deal (as Ron might say).

Box Office Predictions: November 8-10

There’s certainly zero mystery as to what will be #1 this weekend as Thor: The Dark World blasts into theaters and should have one of the biggest openings of the year. You can read my detailed post outlining my prediction on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/thor-the-dark-world-box-office-prediction/

The weekend’s other newcomer is About Time, a British romantic comedy with Rachel McAdams that could muster up some decent counter programming business. It could also totally tank. I’m not too sure about that one, but my prediction post for it is here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/about-time-box-office-prediction/

Ender’s Game will fall to second place and should lose about half its audience in weekend #2 after a just OK $27 million opening. After that, numbers 3-6 should involve a combination of the following: Last Vegas and Free Birds in their sophomore weekends, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa in its third, and the debut of About Time. The order of how they place is very much up in the air and should be close.

And with that – I’ll make it top six (instead of the usual five) predictions for next weekend:

1. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $85.6 million

2. Ender’s Game

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. About Time

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)

5. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 32%)

6. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)

There you have it! As always, I’ll have an update on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!

About Time Box Office Prediction

Attempting to provide counter programming to the box office juggernaut that will be the Thor sequel, the British rom com About Time opens Friday. The pic is from Love, Actually director Richard Curtis and stars Rachel McAdams. Domhnall Gleeson (who played one of the Weasley brothers in the Harry Potter pics) costars.

McAdams has certainly had her share of luck in the genre with The Notebook and The Vow, but About Time will likely be a smaller affair. Will chicks turn out for this flick? It’s hard to imagine it falling below double digits for the opener, even if this seems to be flying under the radar. I’ll predict McAdams name should propel it to low double digits with the possibility that it could surprise.

About Time opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million

For my Thor: The Dark World prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/thor-the-dark-world-box-office-prediction/

Thor: The Dark World Box Office Prediction

The second weekend of November should bring huge results as an Avenger returns in Thor: The Dark World, the sequel to the 2011 hit. Chris Hemsworth is back as the title character along with returnees Natalie Portman, Anthony Hopkins, Rene Russo, and, of course, fan favorite Tom Hiddleston as villainous Loki. TV vet Alan Taylor takes over directing duties from Kenneth Branagh, who moved on to film Jack Ryan.

The original debuted to a strong $65.7 million two and a half years ago, but expectations are understandably higher this time around. Summer 2012 brought us a little movie called The Avengers that broke box office records and increased Thor’s visibility to an even wider audience. The question is: just how high can this pic open?

Conventional estimates are forecasting above $75 million and I would envision Thor easily grabbing that number. A debut in the mid-80s seems most likely though it may land a little lower and (more likely) around $90 million. Reviews have been pretty solid – not that it matters a whole lot. Thor: The Dark World is destined to be a gigantic hit and propel momentum for the next Avengers themed pic coming next spring, the Captain America sequel.

Thor: The Dark World opening weekend prediction: $85.6 million

For my About Time prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/about-time-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: November 1-3

Of the three new pictures that opened this weekend, not one of them reached the number I predicted while Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa held up considerably better in its second frame than I estimated.

Unsurprisingly, the sci-fi pic Ender’s Game debuted at #1 with $28 million, a bit below my $32.9M prediction. This is only a somewhat decent opening for the film and it will likely suffer a healthy decline next weekend when Thor hammers into theaters.

Bad Grandpa held the #2 spot with $20.5 million in its sophomore frame – well above my $13.7M projection. The pic has taken in $62.1 million in ten days and surpassing $100M seems assured.

The all-star comedy Last Vegas had an OK debut with $16.5 million, below my $19.2M estimate. The Thanksgiving animated feature Free Birds also had a so-so $16.2 million opening for fourth place, below my generous $21M estimate. Both titles could have relatively small declines in upcoming weekends. Gravity held the five spot with $13.1 million, right in line with my $13.9M estimate.

Finally, Oscar contender 12 Years a Slave expanded its theater count and grossed an impressive $4.6 million, above my $3.5-$4M projection. The pic is likely to stay in the Top Ten for a little while.

Be sure to check the blog later today when my estimates for Thor: The Dark World and About Time will be posted.

Box Office Predictions: November 1-3

It isn’t often you have a weekend showcasing three new pictures that all stand reasonable shots at opening in first place, but that’s the situation we find ourselves for the first weekend of November 2013. We have the sci-fi epic Ender’s Game, the animated Thanksgiving tale Free Birds, and the all-star comedy Last Vegas all debuting. You could make legit arguments for any one of them being the weekend’s champ. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/free-birds-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/last-vegas-box-office-prediction/

The odds-on favorite is Ender’s Game and I have it easily taking the top spot. However, there is the chance it could flop and allow one of the others to leapfrog it. Free Birds could capitalize on its Thanksgiving subject matter. Last Vegas could cash in on the star power of Robert De Niro, Morgan Freeman, Michael Douglas, and Kevin Kline.

Ultimately, though, I’m not betting against Ender’s Game winning the weekend. As for holdovers, it could be a tight race for the four spot as Gravity will likely experience its typical small decline while last weekend’s #1 Bad Grandpa is poised to fall more than 50%.

Outside of the top five, Oscar front runner 12 Years a Slave expands to 400 theaters and could take in $3.5-$4 million.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Ender’s Game

Predicted Gross: $32.9 million

2. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $21 million

3. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

4. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Free Birds Box Office Prediction

Not enough animated movies this year after Escape from Planet Earth, The Croods, Epic, Monsters University, Despicable Me 2, Turbo, Planes, and Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2? Have no fear – the Thanksgiving themed Free Birds is out Friday.

Featuring the voices of Owen Wilson, Woody Harrelson, and Amy Poehler, Free Birds is the first venture from Reel FX Animation Studios, distributed by Relativity Media. The company was formed to produce modestly budgeted animated titles and Birds comes with a reported $35 million price tag which is small for these types of pics. The best thing Free Birds has going for it is the timing factor. If its halfway decent, this should play pretty well into the Thanksgiving holiday frame and could experience smallish declines from week to week throughout November.

Whether this means it’ll have a big opening is uncertain. The distributor has zero track record so that makes it a little tough to gauge. Anything below $20 million would have to be considered mildly disappointing. It’s rare for any wide release animated feature to fall much below that. A debut in the low 20s range where Turbo and Planes opened seems like a strong possibility. Of course, there’s always the chance this premieres higher than expected, but I’m not prognosticating it.

Free Birds opening weekend prediction: $21 million

For my Ender’s Game prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

For my Last Vegas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/last-vegas-box-office-prediction/