The Smurfs make their return to the multiplex this Wednesday in Smurf 2: Smurf Harder, the eagerly awaited sequel to the 2011 hit. OK, it’s just called The Smurfs 2.

The original from two summers ago, based on the popular animated series, grossed $35.6 million in its opening three-day weekend and went on to earn an impressive $142 million domestically. This time around, Sony has decided to open the pic on a Wednesday, banking on a solid five-day gross. This strategy didn’t work out so great for the summer’s last kids flick, Turbo, which has posted fairly lackluster numbers.

The only question here is: did family audiences like the original enough for the sequel to receive robust business? The answer is probably yes. A five-day gross of over $40 million would not be surprising, but I’ll predict it goes just a bit below that. Still, The Smurfs 2 should earn enough dough for the inevitable sequel, Smurf Hard with a Vengeance.

The Smurfs 2 opening weekend prediction: $25.7 million (Friday to Sunday) and $38.2 million for the five-day opening

For my prediction on this week’s other newcomer, 2 Guns with Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/28/2-guns-box-office-prediction/

That film, by the way, features no Smurfs that I’m aware of.

Logan (a.k.a. Wolverine) has run into a bit of trouble at the box office this weekend as The Wolverine, the sixth installment in the franchise, had a less than expected opening. The pic earned an estimated $55 million opening, quite a bit less than my $67.4M projection. This puts The Wolverine‘s opening right in the same range as 2011’s X-Men: First Class, which debuted to $55.1M in the summer of 2011. Frankly, it’s safe to assume 20th Century Fox expected more. We’ll see how it holds up next weekend, but this debut will be looked at as a disappointment.

Last weekend’s #1, The Conjuring, held up very well (especially for a horror flick). It dropped to second with $22.1 million. My projection? $22.1 million! Gold star for Todd!

Animated features populated the third and fourth slots. Despicable Me 2 was #3 with $16 million (I projected $14.6M) and Turbo was #4 with $13.3 million (I projected $13.8M). Grown Ups 2 rounded out the top five with $11.5 million, a bit higher than my $10.2M estimate.

The critically acclaimed indie drama Fruitvale Station expanded to over 1000 screens and posted a decent $4.6 million, lower than my generous $6.7M projection. Meanwhile, a couple of indie comedies expanded over the weekend as well. The Way, Way Back with Steve Carell grossed an OK $3.3 million, higher than my $2.7M projection. The To-Do List underwhelmed with $1.5 million, lower than my $2M projection.

And there’s your results! Be sure to check the blog later today for my projections for next weekend’s new entries: the Denzel Washington-Mark Wahlberg action pic 2 Guns and the sequel we’ve all been waiting for, The Smurfs 2!

After an onslaught of four new pictures last weekend, there’s only one major wide release coming to theaters this Friday: The Wolverine, the sixth entry in the profitable X-Men franchise. I wrote an extensive post regarding its opening on Sunday. You can find it here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/21/the-wolverine-box-office-prediction/

Hugh Jackman should easily rule the weekend, but it will be interesting to see how last weekend’s champ The Conjuring holds up. It debuted to a strong $41.9 million last weekend. Horror flicks usually suffer a huge drop in their sophomore frames. However, this may not be case here. The Conjuring is a critical hit that audiences seem to dig as well. It earned a solid A- Cinemascore grade. In comparison, earlier 2013 horror hits Mama only got a B- and The Purge earned a weak C grade. If Conjuring fell more than 50% this weekend, it wouldn’t be surprise but I’m not sure it falls quite that far.

Despicable Me 2 should fall in the low-40s range (just as last week), but Turbo may not fall quite that much. It had a weak debut last weekend ($21.3 million over the regular weekend), but it earned an A Cinemascore grade and some family audiences could catch up to it this weekend.

Rounding out the top five, Grown Ups 2 is likely to lose roughly half its audience again. The indie comedy The Way, Way Back with Steve Carell and Toni Collette expands to 650 theaters. I’ll predict it opens towards with $2.7 million, well outside the top five. The same fate is likely to befall the romantic comedy The To-Do List, opening in nearly 600 theaters. I’ll predict a $2 million opening for it. The indie picture expanding in the most theaters this weekend is Fruitvale Station, which has received critical acclaim and Oscar buzz. The drama expands to just over 1000 theaters and I’ll actually predict it does quite well with $6.7 million.

And now… my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. The Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $67.4 million

2. The Conjuring

Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing a drop of 47%)

3. Despicable Me 2

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. Turbo

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 35%)

5. Grown Ups 2

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 49%)

As always, I’ll post updates throughout the weekend on the Facebook page with final results on the blog Sunday!

This Friday, we get our second summer 2013 iteration of the comic book movie do-over. In June, we saw Man of Steel, which was made in part to take the bad taste out of moviegoers mouths for 2006’s Superman Returns.

Now – it’s The Wolverine, in part made to achieve a similar feat in relation to 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine. That pic made a lot of money, but was met with derision from critics and a “meh” response from audiences.

The Wolverine is the sixth film taking place in X-Men world and it’s Hugh Jackman’s sixth go-round as Wolverine (remember that humorous cameo in First Class)? Here’s a handy recap of the openings and final domestic grosses of those that came before it:

X-Men (2000)

Opening: $54.4 million. Total Domestic Gross: $157.2 million.

X2: X-Men United (2003)

Opening: $85.5 million. Total Domestic Gross: $214.9 million.

X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)

Opening: $102.7 million. Total Domestic Gross: $234.3 million.

X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)

Opening: $85 million. Total Domestic Gross: $179.8 million.

X-Men: First Class (2011)

Opening: $55.1 million. Total Domestic Gross: $146.4 million.

You can see a pretty major gap between 2009’s Wolverine pic ($85M) and First Class from two years ago ($55M). Strangely enough, while First Class is the lowest-grossing entry of the series, it was met with critical acclaim and its sequel (out next summer) is likely to open much bigger.

As mentioned, the same cannot be said for the other stand-alone Wolverine pic. So what does this mean for The Wolverine? Early reviews have suggested it’s a considerable improvement on the 2009 flick. That said, I simply don’t see it quite approaching that pic’s $85 million debut.

A more likely scenario is a gross somewhere in the middle of the last two X-Men related features. An opening above $70 million is certainly possible. So is an opening on par with First Class‘s  mid-50s debut. I’ll go somewhere on the high end of that range for a pretty solid opening that would rank fourth of the six.

The Wolverine opening weekend prediction: $67.4 million

Nobody was too sure what would happen at the box office this weekend as four new titles opened, Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim entered their sophomore frames, and the animated juggernaut Despicable Me 2 had its third weekend.

I was correct that the critically acclaimed horror title The Conjuring would take the top spot, but it ended up doing even better than my prediction. Warner Bros. has a huge hit on its hands as The Conjuring grossed $41.5 million, more than double its $20 million budget and above my $35.3M projection. This is a higher debut than other well-performing horror openings in 2013, like Mama and The Purge. Furthermore, The Conjuring earned a rock solid A- Cinemascore grade which means it may hold up better in subsequent weekends than other horror flicks.

Dreamworks animated Turbo had a fairly lackluster debut with $31.2 million over its five-day opening and $21.5 million over the Friday to Sunday frame. This is below my five-day projection of $42.8M and $27.1M over the traditional weekend. Turbo may experience small declines over the next several weeks, but a five-day opening of just over $30M for a high-profile animated flick isn’t too strong. This allowed Despicable Me 2 to remain #2 in its third weekend with $25.1 million, above my $22.3M estimate.

Grown Ups 2 held up slightly better in its second weekend with $20 million. I predicted $18.6 million. As mentioned last week, Adam Sandler needed a hit after a couple of flops and he’s got one.

Opening in fifth place with a weak debut is Red 2, which took in $18.5 million – below my $22.7M projection. The sequel failed to even gross what its predecessor opened at in 2010. In my prediction post earlier in the week, I asked whether audiences were really clamoring for a sequel. The answer, apparently, is no.

Pacific Rim dropped a bit further than I figured with $16 million in its sophomore frame (I projected $17.3M). With an enormous budget, Rim‘s domestic numbers have been unimpressive.

Finally, I correctly projected a disastrous opening for R.I.P.D. and that’s exactly what happened. The sci-fi comedy with Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds opened with a loud thud, opening in seventh with $12.8 million. This is slightly below my $13.6M projection. Universal Pictures did a terrible job marketing this flick (didn’t help that it looked terrible anyway) and they have a massive bomb before them (its budget was reportedly $130 million).

Whew! That’s all for now, folks! I’ll be back soon enough with my box office prediction for next weekend’s big opener, The Wolverine. Stay tuned!

Well, how’s this for an upcoming jigsaw puzzle of a weekend for box office predictions? We have the current #1 Despicable Me 2 entering its third weekend. We have Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim entering their second weekends. And we have an astonishing four new movies opening: the supernatural thriller The Conjuring, Dreamworks animated Turbo, the action/comedy sequel Red 2, and the sci-fi comedy R.I.P.D.

Yesterday I wrote extensive prediction posts on all four newbies which can be found linked below:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/the-conjuring-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/turbo-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/red-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/r-i-p-d-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, with the infusion of competition especially from Turbo, Despicable Me 2 may lose around half its audience. Due to the same reasons, I expect Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim to lose more than half their debut weekend audiences. With all the new titles this week, I’m changing my usual format of picking the top five to top seven. And, with that, here it is:

1. The Conjuring

Predicted Gross: $35.3 million

2. Turbo

Predicted Gross: $27.1 million ($42.8 million for projected five-day gross)

3. Red 2

Predicted Gross: $22.7 million

4. Despicable Me 2

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Grown Ups 2

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

6. Pacific Rim

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million (representing a drop of 53%)

7. R.I.P.D.

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

We shall see how it all shakes out this coming weekend. Per usual, I’ll have weekend updates on the Facebook page with final results on Sunday!

Unless my radar is way off, R.I.P.D. looks to be a massive bomb when it opens this weekend. The title stands for Rest In Peace Department and stars Ryan Reynolds and Jeff Bridges as deceased law enforcement officers who must battle evil spirits.

I’m going to get to the point: the trailer for R.I.P.D. makes it look like an ultra-cheesy Men in Black rip-off with Bridges doing a bad comedic version of his Rooster Cogburn character from True Grit. When the trailer is as atrocious as this one, what does that say for the film?

To make matters worse, the competition for R.I.P.D. is seemingly insurmountable. If it’s going for family audiences, there’s Turbo and Despicable Me 2 out there. If it’s going for teenagers and young adults, it has to compete with The Conjuring and the second weekends of Pacific Rim and Grown Ups 2, as well as Red 2 for a more adult and action-oriented demographic. So… how does this make money? My answer: it doesn’t

R.I.P.D. inexplicably boasts a hefty $130 million budget and that spells big trouble ahead for Universal Pictures, as I see it. The film looks headed to a dismal seventh place finish at the box office. Bottom line: R.I.P.D. looks DOA.

R.I.P.D. opening weekend prediction: $13.6 million

There are four films opening this weekend at the box office. For my prediction on The Conjuring, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/the-conjuring-box-office-prediction/

For Turbo, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/turbo-box-office-prediction/

For Red 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/red-2-box-office-prediction/

Red 2 joins an extremely crowded marketplace this weekend at the box office. This is the sequel to the action/comedy which was a surprise hit in the fall of 2010, earning $90 million domestically.

Bruce Willis, John Malkovich, Mary-Louise Parker, and Helen Mirren are back for the second installment and this time joined by Anthony Hopkins and Catherine Zeta-Jones. While the original did exceed expectations, I ask the following questions: are audiences clamoring for a sequel to this?

I’m highly skeptical, but I asked the same very question just last week with Grown Ups 2, which I wrongly predicted would earn less in its opening weekend than the first installment. I was wrong. The sequel ended up doing $42 million, two million higher than the original.

The comparison may be apples to oranges, but I’m hopeful my sequel radar isn’t off in this case. As I see it, Red made $22.5 million in its debut. I figure Red 2 will do about exactly the same. There’s always the chance that anticipation is higher than I believe, but I don’t see it.

Red 2 opening weekend prediction: $22.7 million

There are four new films opening this week. For my prediction on The Conjuring, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/the-conjuring-box-office-prediction/

For Turbo, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/turbo-box-office-prediction/

For R.I.P.D., click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/r-i-p-d-box-office-prediction/

There are four high-profile titles coming to the multiplex this weekend, but I’m starting to believe Warner Bros. The Conjuring could take the top spot when all is said and done.

Why? For one thing, horror/supernatural flicks are a hot commodity right now. In June, The Purge grossed an impressive $34 million in its first weekend. In January, Mama greatly exceeded expectations with a $28 million debut.

The Conjuring, starring Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga, comes from Saw and Insidious director James Wan. And it just may have more going for it than the two previously mentioned 2013 horror hits. Unlike most horror flicks, The Conjuring is receiving surprisingly glowing reviews. It currently sits at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes… something practically unheard of for a picture of its genre.

Whether that translates into an opening on par with The Purge is a good question. Horror films tend to have big openings and suffer huge drops in their second weekend. The Conjuring could be an exception to the rule in that it may not have the significant percentage drops in subsequent weekends due to solid word-of-mouth.

I see The Conjuring debuting to no lower than in the mid-twenties range. However, I feel good buzz surrounding it will propel the film to a larger debut (right in Purge range).

The Conjuring opening weekend prediction: $35.3 million

There are four new films opening this week. For my prediction on Turbo, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/turbo-box-office-prediction/

For Red 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/red-2-box-office-prediction/

For R.I.P.D., click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/r-i-p-d-box-office-prediction/

In the last month, family audiences have been treated to two animated sequel behemoths, Monsters University and Despicable Me 2. Both titles are on their way to grossing over $300 million domestically.

This leaves an open question for Dreamworks Turbo, opening Wednesday: will parents and their kiddos turn out for this? Featuring the voices of Ryan Reynolds, Paul Giamatti, Michael Pena, Snoop Dogg (or Lion), Samuel L. Jackson, and many others, Turbo seems geared towards the boys of the family with its racing theme. The film’s tagline (“He’s Fast. They’re Furious.” is no accident).

Dreamworks is planning to parlay Turbo into an animated Netflix series later this year so they’re clearly hoping for solid box office returns stateside. First things first: Turbo has zero chance of reaching the level of the animated sequels that have ruled the #1 spot at the box office for the past four weeks.

A more likely scenario is Turbo opening to what The Croods and Epic did earlier in the year. The Croods took in $43 million during its opening weekend in March and Epic posted $33 million in May. Keep in mind that Turbo opens Wednesday so this prediction will be for its five-day gross.

Even with the five-day figure, I’m having a hard time seeing Turbo earning more than The Croods did in its three-day opening. I do believe that Monsters University and the second Despicable Me may keep a significant percentage of family audiences away, but it should still have a rather respectable opening.

Turbo opening weekend prediction (five-day gross): $42.8 million

There are four titles opening this week. For my prediction on how The Conjuring will do, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/the-conjuring-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Red 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/red-2-box-office-prediction/

For R.I.P.D., click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/r-i-p-d-box-office-prediction/