There’s a very old saying that goes like this:

In the act of being wrong, be it best to be spectacularly wrong. – Unknown

OK, folks. That’s not a real saying. It should be though right? People? Come on! Help me out here!

I begin this way today because I was spectacularly wrong with my box office predictions this weekend. It happens. In a strange way, that’s the fun of doing these predictions week after week. You think you’re pretty good and every once in a while a movie comes along where you completely blow it.

You’re Next would be that picture of spectacular wrongness. It’s been a good year for horror flicks and I incorrectly estimated You’re Next with its cool TV spots would debut at #1 with $21.6 million. Wrong, wrong, wrong. It gained zero traction with audiences, opening with a thud at #7 with a measly $7 million. Ouch.

Lee Daniels’ The Butler actually retained its #1 status with $17 million, a bit below my $18.1M prediction. The Jennifer Aniston comedy We’re the Millers keeps chugging along in its third weekend. It was #2 with $13.5 million, above my $11 million projection.

The news wasn’t good for The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones. Based on a series of popular teen fantasy novels, the success of the books didn’t translate to the silver screen. It made $9.3 million over the three-day weekend and $14 million since its Wednesday opening to place third. That is well below my respective three and five day estimates of $15.7M and $23.9M. There has been a sequel planned for this one for some time. I question that now.

In retrospect, I should have paid more attention to the fact that the Simon Pegg/Nick Frost comedy The World’s End was opening on a relatively low number of screens. It took in $8.9 million for fourth. That’s a decent debut for it, but below my $12.4M projection.

And Disney’s Planes rounded out the top five with $8.5 million. I made no estimate for it because I didn’t think it’d be in the top five (thanks, You’re Next).

So not a great week for yours truly, but I’ll soldier forward my friends! Look for predictions on the blog later today for the trio of Labor Day newbies: Getaway with Ethan Hawke, Closed Circuit with Eric Bana, and (what we’ve all been waiting for) One Direction: This Is Us.

Three new films enter the market this week as The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, You’re Next, and The World’s End debut to compete with the second weekend of the hit Lee Daniels’ The Butler. I made my predictions for the three newbies yesterday and they can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/the-mortal-instruments-city-of-bones-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/youre-next-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/the-worlds-end-box-office-prediction/

While the predictions might not necessarily show it, I can easily see three scenarios where The Mortal Instruments, The Butler, or You’re Next open at #1.

The Butler had a strong $24.6 million opening this past weekend and earned a terrific A Cinemascore average. That means its drop in its sophomore frame shouldn’t be much. For some context, The Help opened in the same August weekend two years ago at $26 million, had a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, and dropped only 23% in its second week. If the new entries don’t open well (which is certainly possible), it could mean The Butler is #1 two weeks in a row.

The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones is based on a popular series of teen novels and youngsters could turn out in droves. The fact that it opens Wednesday should dilute its Friday-to-Sunday gross. I’m also going on the rather low end of expectations for the title, but it could certainly make more than my estimate and take the top spot.

This brings us to You’re Next, which like The Purge, has come out of nowhere over the past few days with effective TV spots. Horror films tend to exceed analysts expectations and, therefore, I’m going on the high end of predictions and saying it will be the picture leading this coming weekend’s frame.

The World’s End with Simon Pegg and Nick Frost isn’t really a contender for #1 as I see it and should perform similar numbers to the duo’s last picture, Paul.

And with that, my top 5 predictions:

1. You’re Next

Predicted Gross: $21.6 million

2. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million (representing a drop of 28%)

3. The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones

Predicted Gross: $15.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $23.9 million (five-day gross)

4. The World’s End

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

5. We’re the Millers

Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 39%)

I’ll have updates posted on the Facebook page this weekend as early numbers come in with final results on the blog Sunday.

The World’s End is the latest sci-fi comedy from stars Simon Pegg and Nick Frost. You may know this duo from Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz, and Paul.

There is no question that there’s a built-in audience for these performers and their pictures. The question is: how big? I think an appropriate barometer is their last film together, 2011’s Paul. It opened to a decent $13 million opening weekend and took in $37 million domestically. 

Reviews have been solid and The World’s End stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. There is some steep competition out there. We’re the Millers is continuing to bring in comedy crowds and I’m predicting horror pic You’re Next will have a healthy debut.

Ultimately, I believe this will open pretty much right on par with Paul two years ago.

The World’s End opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million

For my prediction on You’re Next, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/youre-next-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/the-mortal-instruments-city-of-bones-box-office-prediction/

Very little was said about the Lionsgate horror flick You’re Next until recently, but the pic seems to be gaining some traction with rather effective TV spots that come complete with creepy animal masks!

The home invasion horror title actually debuted at the Toronto Film Festival all the way back in 2011 and received critical acclaim (it’s at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes currently). You’re Next is starting to remind me of The Purge, which came out of nowhere in June and took in a fantastic $34 million in its first weekend.

I don’t believe You’re Next will approach that number. Some audiences may have had their fill for the moment of the horror genre with The Purge and especially The Conjuring having done great business this season. Still, horror flicks do tend to debut higher than analysts typically expect. That could certainly be the case here. While some prognosticators will likely predict an opening in the teens, I’ll say You’re Next tops $20M.

You’re Next opening weekend prediction: $21.6 million

For my prediction on The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/the-mortal-instruments-city-of-bones-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The World’s End, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/the-worlds-end-box-office-prediction/

I will freely admit that it’s a little tough to make a box office prediction on a film based on a series of teen fantasy novels that I know nothing about, but that’s what I’m here for!

The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones is the first pic from a series of popular novels from Cassandra Clare and Screen Gems must be fairly confident because a sequel is already in the works. Bones stars a cast of relative unknowns headlined by Lily Collins who’s probably most known for playing Sandra Bullock’s daughter in The Blind Side. 

Its late summer release date indicates to me that anticipation for this is nowhere near the levels of a Twilight flick, to say the least. However, the novels apparently have their followers and it could post decent results in its five-day debut.

Over the past few weeks, movies are tending to make less than what most figured, so that could be a factor here as well. And a lot of the film’s target audience is beginning the dreaded process of going back to school.

My best shot in the dark guess is that The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones manages a five-day gross in the mid twenties.

The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones opening weekend prediction: $15.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday gross), $23.9 million (five-day gross)

For my prediction on the horror flick, You’re Next, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/youre-next-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The World’s End, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/the-worlds-end-box-office-prediction/

The Butler definitely did it at the box office this weekend as the Lee Daniels pic opened to an impressive $25 million, above my $21.7M projection. The news was not so positive for the other three films debuting over the weekend. Kick-Ass 2 had a very disappointing #4 debut with only $13.5 million (below my $18.6M estimate). I was right on point with my Jobs prediction as it opened seventh with $6.7 million (I said $6.8M). However, I gave way too much credit to the thriller Paranoia, which had an atrocious #13 debut with $3.5 million… ouch! I predicted it would make $10.3M.

The hit comedy We’re the Millers held up extremely well in its second weekend with $17.7 million, above my $16.2M projection. Elysium was third with $13.6 million, a bit higher than my $12.2M estimate. Planes took fifth in its sophomore frame with $13.1 million, just below my $14.1M prediction. Also in its second weekend, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters was sixth with $8.3 million (just above my $7.9M estimate).

Be sure to check the blog later today when I’ll have individual box office predictions posts for next weekend’s trio of new entries: The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, You’re Next, and The World’s End.

Another weekend… another four movies opening in an already crowded marketplace. This Friday, the four newbies are Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Kick-Ass 2, Paranoia, and Jobs. It was just this past weekend that four new titles populated numbers 1-4 on the chart: Elysium, We’re the Millers, Planes, and Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters.

Per usual, I have already written prediction posts on the newcomers and they can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/lee-daniels-the-butler-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/kick-ass-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/paranoia-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/jobs-box-office-prediction/

Many seem to be predicting a Kick-Ass 2 victory this coming weekend and that’s certainly possible. However, I’m going with Lee Daniels’ The Butler taking top honors. I don’t expect good debuts for either Paranoia or Jobs.

What will be interesting is how the second weekends are for last weekend’s four pictures. While Elysium opened first, it seems most vulnerable to a hefty sophomore frame fall. Audiences only gave it a B Cinemascore grade, which is not too good. I believe Elysium will drop much bigger than We’re the Millers and Planes. 

Due to the influx of new titles competing with last weekend’s entries, I’m doing a Top 8 for this weekend instead of a Top 5. Here we go:

1. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million

2. Kick-Ass 2

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million

3. We’re the Millers

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Planes

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. Elysium

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million (representing a drop of 59%)

6. Paranoia

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

7. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)

8. Jobs

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

And there you have it! We’ll see how smart (or dumb) I am this coming weekend when I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page with a full report on the blog Sunday. Stay tuned!

A biopic of one of the world’s most visionary figures headlined by… Ashton Kutcher? Shall we call it Dude, Where’s My iPhone? (I’m sorry).

The “Punk’d” star himself plays late Apple founder Steve Jobs in Jobs and the majority of the publicity surrounding the project has mostly focused on Ashton’s casting. While everyone knows the name Steve Jobs and most use products he’s created, I don’t believe that’ll necessarily translate into box office dollars.

Truthfully, Jobs seems like it’d be more suited as a cable TV premiere than a theatrical release. Reviews have been mixed at best and the marketing campaign has been fairly quiet. There’s two other pics opening this weekend going for an adult audiences (Lee Daniels’ The Butler and Paranoia) and Jobs is likely to get lost in the shuffle.

With four new titles opening this weekend, I’ll predict most moviegoers will be using their Apple products to book tickets to those other films and not the bio about Apple’s founder.

Jobs opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million

For my prediction on Lee Daniels’ The Butler, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/lee-daniels-the-butler-box-office-prediction/

For my Kick-Ass 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/kick-ass-2-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Paranoia, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/paranoia-box-office-prediction/

Collectively the three stars of Paranoia have starred in some of the most beloved film franchises we have: Star Wars. The Hunger Games. Harry Potter. Indiana Jones. The Dark Knight trilogy.

All of which will mean precisely jack squat, I believe, when it comes to Paranoia‘s box office performance. The thriller about high tech and corporate espionage stars Liam Hemsworth, Harrison Ford, and Gary Oldman. Yes, it has recognizable stars but the pic seems to be generating very little buzz and reviews so far have been only fair.

With an extremely busy marketplace, Paranoia seems to be the kind of film that’ll struggle to find an audience. I believe a double digit opening gross is questionable. On the bright side, it has only a $15 million budget. I’ll say it gets to double digits, but just barely. Paranoia will likely make in three days what Liam’s Hunger Games: Catching Fire will earn in its first hour.

Paranoia opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my prediction on Lee Daniels’ The Butler, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/lee-daniels-the-butler-box-office-prediction/

For my Kick-Ass 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/kick-ass-2-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Jobs, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/jobs-box-office-prediction/

In the spring of 2010, Kick-Ass posted decent box office numbers with an opening of $19.8 million and an eventual domestic haul of $48 million. These numbers certainly do not indicate an automatic sequel. However, since its release, Kick-Ass has developed into a cult hit with plenty of fervent admirers (I count myself among them).

The superhero action comedy brings back stars Aaron Johnson, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, and Chloe Grace Moretz. This time around, there’s no Nicolas Cage to be found but Jim Carrey is in the mix. And Carrey’s participation in the project is where Kick-Ass 2 has received most of its publicity… and not in a good way. Carrey distanced himself from the film, citing its violence and the Sandy Hook massacre as the reason for his regret in appearing in the picture.

The marketing for Kick-Ass 2 has seemed a bit below the radar, but perhaps the studio is simply assuming its fans will turn out. I’m sure a number of them will, but a more robust advertising campaign could have helped.

An opening of over $20 million is certainly a possibility, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Kick-Ass 2 may struggle to match the original’s opening weekend. We saw one such example just a few weeks ago when Red 2 failed to match its predecessor’s opening take. I will predict Kick-Ass 2 falls just shy of the first’s debut.

Kick-Ass 2 opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million

For my prediction on the opening of Lee Daniels’ The Butler, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/lee-daniels-the-butler-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Paranoia, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/paranoia-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Jobs, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/jobs-box-office-prediction/