Three years after its predecessor was a sleeper hit, Dolphin Tale 2 swims into theaters this Friday and will attempt a #1 opening. It’s got a very good shot. Actor turned director Charles Martin Smith is behind the camera once again and stars of Dolphin Tale Harry Connick Jr., Ashley Judd, Kris Kristofferson, and Morgan Freeman all return.
In September of 2011, the original debuted to $19.1 million on its way to a $72 million domestic gross. Those earnings were enough for Warner Bros. to green light a sequel. The big question is whether or not Dolphin Tale 2 grosses more than its predecessor and on that one, I’m skeptical. I simply don’t believe the first is beloved enough for audiences to flock to it. That being said, Dolphin Tale 2 should earn enough to get it to the #1 spot in a currently weak marketplace.
Dolphin Tale 2 opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million
Idris Elba and Taraji P. Henson star in the thriller No Good Deed, out Friday. It’s one of two pics (along with Dolphin Tale 2) attempting to interrupt the box office reign of Guardians of the Galaxy.
Deed puts Elba in the role of a stranger terrorizing Henson and her family. The film could succeed in bringing in a female audience and will attempt to cater to the same crowd that made Halle Berry’s The Call an unexpected hit last year. That film seems like a decent comparison to Deed. In March 2013, The Call debuted to a solid $17 million. I would expect No Good Deed won’t quite reach that number, due to the fact that it’s scheduled to open on approximately 500 less screens. Nevertheless I anticipate a decent opening for this.
No Good Deed opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million
The first weekend of September is practically assured to be quite a tepid one at the box office as only one (low profile) release is being released, the faith based musical drama The Identical. For my detailed prediction post on it, click here:
That leaves summer holdovers to likely populate the top five once again, with superhero teams Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles continuing to hold the top spots. Not much more to say this week as it will be a boring movie weekend before some higher profile fall releases get underway soon.
With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)
3. If I Stay
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)
4. Let’s Be Cops
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)
5. The November Man
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)
That would leave newbie The Identical with a predicted seventh place debut, just behind As Above/So Below.
Box Office Results (August 29-September 1)
As expected, the Labor Day weekend was a relatively quiet one as Guardians of the Galaxy remained in first with a four day haul of $22.9 million, just above my $21.1M projection. The Marvel phenomenon and summer 2014’s biggest grosser has amassed $281 million so far and should soon surpass $300M.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was again second with $15.6 million, below my generous $19.3M estimate. The reboot stands at an impressive $166M.
In its sophomore weekend, If I Stay was third with $11.7 million, below my once again generous $17.2M prediction. Its two week total is $32 million and it should finish out with less than $50M.
Fourth place belonged to Let’s Be Cops in its third weekend with $10.3 million, in line with my $11.4M estimate. The comedy has taken in $59M at press time and should reach $70M plus.
Opening in fifth was horror flick As Above/So Below with an unimpressive $10.2 million, just below my $11.8M projection. Below continued the 2014 trend of horror pics underwhelming, but its studio can take solace in that it only cost $5M to make.
The Pierce Brosnan spy film The November Man debuted just behind it with $10.1 million and $11.7 million since its Wednesday debut. It outdid my four day projection of $8.1M but its six day total was right in line with my $11M estimate. Tepid reviews didn’t help it.
Finally, sports drama When the Game Stands Tall was seventh in weekend #2 with $8.1 million, below my $9.8M projection. Its two week total stands at $18M and it’ll peter out at around $35 million at best.
The weekend after Labor Day is often the slowest box office frame of the entire year and 2014 stands an excellent chance at keeping that tradition going. There is only one new release opening wide Friday and it’s not a very high profile one – The Identical, a musical drama that will attempt to bring in faith-based audiences. I’m highly skeptical that it will. The decades spanning period piece imagines that Elvis Presley’s identical twin does not die during childbirth and grows up unaware of his famous lineage while struggling to forge his own music career.
The Identical has some recognizable faces in supporting roles, including Ashley Judd, Ray Liotta, and Joe Pantoliano. Real life Elvis impersonator Blake Rayne is in the title role. Marketing for the pic has seemed minimal and it opens on a low numbers of screens (approximately 1450). Being the only newbie in town next weekend, it seems destined for a bad opening well behind holdovers Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.
The Identical opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million
The fall movie season officially kicks off this Labor Day weekend with two new entries: the horror flick As Above, So Below and Pierce Brosnan spy thriller The November Man. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
As you can see, I’m predicting neither of the newbies will add much firepower to the box office. That leaves August’s megahits Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles likely to continue their reign at the top two positions. Keep in mind that my weekend projections this time around are for the four day holiday weekend and that means holdover pics often see an increase in dollars compared to the previous weekend. That holds true with my estimates for Guardians, TMNT, If I Stay, When the Game Stands Tall, and Let’s Be Cops.
And with that – we’ll do Top Seven predictions for the Labor Day frame:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $21.1 million (representing an increase of 23%)
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Predicted Gross: $19.3 million (representing an increase of 16%)
3. If I Stay
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million (representing an increase of 11%)
4. As Above, So Below
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
5. Let’s Be Cops
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing an increase of 6%)
6. When the Game Stands Tall
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing an increase of 19%)
7. The November Man
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Monday projection), $11 million (Wednesday to Monday projection)
Box Office Results (August 22-24)
As the summer movie season drew to a close, there were two big stories: Guardians of the Galaxy became the season’s biggest grosser and Sin City: A Dame to Kill For had one of the worst debuts in recent memory.
Marvel’s Guardians vaulted back to the #1 spot after two weeks behind Ninja Turtles. The blockbuster took in $17.2 million, outshining my $15M estimate. It’s taken in $251 million so far and therefore passed Transformers: Age of Extinction as the King of Summer Movies.
Ninja Turtles slipped to second with $16.7 million, holding up considerably better than my $12.7M prediction. In three weeks, the reboot has amassed $145 million and it should surpass $175M when all is said and done.
The YA pic If I Stay got off to a decent start with $15.6 million – ahead of my $12.1M projection. Many prognosticators had it opening #1, but two teams of venerable superheroes prevented that from happening.
Somewhat surprisingly, Let’s Be Cops only dropped a respectable 39% in its sophomore frame and placed fourth with $10.8 million. I incorrectly didn’t place it in the top five and its two week total stands at $45M. It should reach $75M, which is great considering its meager budget.
The sports drama When the Game Stands Tall earned $8.3 million for a fair fifth place opening, right in range with my $9M projection. With a solid A- Cinemascore grade, it should hold up well next weekend.
And this brings us to Sin City: A Dame to Kill For. Let’s get this out of the way: I had it opening #1 with $20.8 million. Ummm…. oops!
Arriving nearly ten years after the original, Dame performed a fantastically bad box office belly flop with only $6.3 million for a pathetic eighth place debut. Simply put, even though the first was generally well-received, its sequel registered barely any audience interest. Dame easily qualifies as one of 2014’s biggest bombs.
Pierce Brosnan is back in spy mode with The November Man, which debuts Wednesday before the long Labor Day weekend. It seems unlikely that this will approach anywhere near the numbers Brosnan enjoyed with his more known spy character, James Bond.
The star reunites with his Dante’s Peak director Roger Donaldson and costars with Olga Kurlylenko, who appeared alongside Daniel Craig’s 007 in Quantum of Solace. The studio is hoping that audiences are primed to see Pierce return to the kind of role people most identify him with, but there are troubling signs. Reviews have been bad and The November Man currently stands at only 17% on Rotten Tomatoes. This should contribute to negative word of mouth.
As I see it, the pic should struggle to make double digits in its six day rollout and The November Man should fade fast and be available for home viewing by its title month.
The November Man opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate), $11 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)
It’s been a shaky year, to say the least, for horror flicks and this Labor Day weekend – the found footage pic As Above, So Below will attempt to reverse that trend. The film showcases American tourists exploring the catacombs in Paris with haunting results. There have yet to be many reviews, but the ones available don’t inspire much confidence.
As Above, So Below appears unlikely to inject some much needed energy to horror genre. Still, it should manage a double digit debut – especially over the four-day holiday weekend. I don’t believe, however, that Below will end up opening above what the Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles manage to gross next weekend.
As Above, So Below opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
This weekend three new pictures will try to unseat Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy, which have held the 1-2 positions for the past two weeks. They are Sin City: A Dame to Kill For, following its predecessor by nearly a decade, YA pic If I Stay, and sports drama When the Game Stands Tall. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:
I believe Sin City will do well enough to top the charts and don’t expect much out of Stay or Game, which I have opening at four and five. If either of those newbies go below my estimates, it may allow holdovers Let’s Be Cops or The Expendables 3 to remain in the top five. However, my projections do not reflect that. I’m also predicting that Guardians will remain at the #2 spot due to a lower percentage drop than Turtles.
And with that – my top five estimates for the weekend:
1. Sin City: A Dame to Kill For
Predicted Gross: $20.8 million
2. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $15 million (representing a drop of 40%)
3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)
4. If I Stay
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
5. When the Game Stands Tall
Predicted Gross: $9 million
Box Office Results (August 15-17)
As predicted, holdovers Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy remained atop the charts. TMNT stayed first for its second weekend with $28.5 million, holding up slightly better than my $25.7M estimate. The successful franchise reboot has earned $117 million so far and should reach close to $175M. Guardians took in $25.1 million in weekend 3, barely topping my $24.1M projection. The Marvel juggernaut stands at $222 million and is on its way to be 2014’s highest grosser… until Mockingjay – Part 1 is unleashed.
The poorly reviewed comedy Let’s Be Cops got off to a decent start with $17.8 million over the traditional weekend and $26.2 million since its Wednesday debut. Its Friday to Sunday take was right in line with my $17.7M prediction while its five-day was higher than my $23.4M guesstimate. With a weak B Cinemascore grade, expect Cops to fade quickly though.
Bad box office news keeps on coming for Sylvester Stallone as The Expendables 3 bombed with only $15.8 million, below my $21.5M prediction. The all-star action franchise has clearly lost its steam and a fourth entry seems doubtful at this juncture.
The YA adaption The Giver with Jeff Bridges and Meryl Streep had a lackluster result with $12.3 million – though it did exceed my $11M projection.
The sports drama When the Game Stands Tall opens Friday, in conjunction with football season starting up. Inspired by a true story, the TriStar release focuses on a high school’s team 151 game winning streak and stars Jim Caviezel, Laura Dern, and Michael Chiklis. Thomas Carter, who directed one successful similar genre pic Coach Carter with Samuel L. Jackson, is behind the camera.
Earlier this summer, another sports pic Million Dollar Arm starring Jon Hamm, stumbled out of the gate with only a $10.5 million opening. That picture had Disney behind it and a more recognizable star. If Arm performed badly, it’s tough to see how this breaks through with audiences. Unless the timing of its release helps, Tall is probably primed for a subpar opening. There’s also the issue of many high school football fans might, you know, actually be watching a high school football game this Friday night.
When the Game Stands Tall opening weekend prediction: $9 million
For my Sin City: A Dame to Kill For prediction, click here:
Summit Entertainment is the studio de jour for young adult flicks and they’ve got another one this Friday with If I Stay, based on the novel by Gayle Forman. The film centers on a teen played by Chloe Grace Moritz of Kick Ass fame dealing with love and loss and is directed by R.J. Cutler, who seems a bit out of his element because he’s known more for making political documentaries.
If I Stay would love to follow in the footsteps of an earlier pic this summer, The Fault in Our Stars. That seems unlikely to occur as it’s been curiously under marketed and the late summer release is often somewhat of a dumping ground for studios. If Stay can debut above $15 million, the studio should consider that a success. I wonder if it will even manage double digits. My prediction is that it will get there, but not by much and my estimate puts it in the same range as another YA movie, The Giver, from this past weekend.
If I Stay opening weekend prediction: $12.1 million
For my Sin City: A Dame to Kill For prediction, click here:
