This Friday, the R rated frat comedy Neighbors featuring Seth Rogen, Zac Efron, Rose Byrne, and Dave Franco hits theaters and I’m predicting audiences are going to be quite friendly to it. The buzz for the pic has been overwhelmingly positive as it currently stands at a terrific 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. It also helps tremendously that the trailers and TV sports are pretty hilarious (I laugh every time I see the air bag gag).
Neighbors could set some personal records for the personnel involved here. Rogen’s biggest live-action opening is The Green Hornet, which debuted to $33.5 million in 2011. I believe this could surpass that and in fact, it may even challenge The Amazing Spider-Man2 for the #1 spot this weekend. As I see it, Neighbors has the potential to reach $40M plus, but ultimately I think a debut in the mid to high 30s is the likely scenario. If reviews are to be used to as a guide, this could also be in for a long and successful run ahead and could certainly be one of summer 2014’s highest earning comedies in a season chock full of them.
Neighbors opening weekend prediction: $37.3 million
For my Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return prediction, click here:
This weekend the summer 2014 movie season officially gets underway and it’s mega-sequel The Amazing Spider-Man 2 leading the charge. You can read my detailed prediction post on its prospects here:
Week after week, we will see huge profile releases after another. As for weekend #1, Spidey should easily out gross the rest of the top five combined and then some. As for spring holdovers, I look for last weekend’s 1-4 (The Other Woman, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Heaven Is for Real, Rio 2) to all drop in the high 30s-mid 40s range.
And with that, my estimates for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Predicted Gross: $90.1 million
2. The Other Woman
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 42%)
3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 44%)
4. Heaven Is for Real
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Rio 2
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 39%)
Box Office Results (April 25-27)
As for the final weekend of spring, The Other Woman with Cameron Diaz debuted very solidly with $24.7 million, outshining my $18.1M estimate. The rom com clearly hit with its female target audience.
Holdovers occupied slots 2-4. Captain America: The Winter Soldier took second with $16.2 in its fourth weekend, above my $14.3M prediction. Heaven Is for Real held up well in its second weekend for third with $14.3 million, topping my $13M projection. Rio 2 was fourth with $13.8 million, just below my $14.5M prediction.
The Paul Walker action pic Brick Mansions opened in fifth with a weak $9.5 million – not reaching my $12.3M estimate. And the horror flick The Quiet Ones absolutely tanked with only $3.8 million for a seventh place showing, well below my generous $9.4M guess.
That’s all for now! I’ll be back soon as we see just how well Spidey does!
Two summers back, the Spidey franchise was rebooted with Andrew Garfield in the title role and summer 2014 kicks off with its sequel The Amazing Spider-Man 2 on Friday. Emma Stone is back as Gwen Stacy as is Sally Field as Aunt May, with a trio of villains joining the mix. They are Jamie Foxx as Electro, Paul Giamatti as Russian mobster Aleksei Sytsevich, and Dane DeHaan as Harry Osborn, who will likely become the Green Goblin at some point. Marc Webb, who helmed the original, is back behind the camera.
Interestingly, among the four current Spidey flicks, each has grossed less than the previous one. Here’s the stats:
Spider-Man (2002): $403 million
Spider-Man 2 (2004): $373 million
Spider-Man 3 (2007): $336 million
The Amazing Spider-Man (2012): $262 million
Judging the opening gross of this sequel based on its 2012 predecessor is a bit tricky because it opened over the Fourth of July weekend. While its Friday to Sunday gross was $62 million, it rolled out over a six-day period beginning on a Tuesday with $137 million.
I think the real question here is whether or not The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will have the biggest superhero opening so far this year. In other words – can it top the $95 million opening that Captain America: The Winter Soldier accomplished a month ago?
As I see it, the possibility of Spidey topping $100 million out of the gate is real. It pretty much has the weekend to itself and has the advantage of being the first high-profile summer 2014 blockbuster. On the other hand, the original wasn’t exactly beloved and the low end opening possibility to me would be around $75 million – which would be considered a bit of a letdown.
My spidey sense tells me this won’t quite reach what Captain America did, but it’ll come close.
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 opening weekend prediction: $90.1 million
This is the final weekend of the movie calendar before the May onslaught of potential summer blockbusters arrive, including The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, and Maleficent. On Friday, we’ll see a trio of new titles debut: the rom com The Other Woman, action thriller Brick Mansions, and horror flick The Quiet Ones. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As for holdovers, I’m expecting drops in the mid 30s-40s for last weekend’s champ Captain America: The Winter Soldier and runners-up Heaven Is for Real and Rio 2. If that is indeed the case, it could mean fifth and sixth place debuts for Brick Mansions and The Quiet Ones, unless they perform better than expected. I believe The Other Woman should generate enough business to be #1, though if it disappoints it could open the door for a fourth weekend at the top spot for Captain America or possibly a rise to #1 for Rio 2. And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:
1. The Other Woman
Predicted Gross: $18.1 million
2. Rio 2
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)
3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)
4. Heaven Is for Real
Predicted Gross: $13 million (representing a drop of 42%)
5. Brick Mansions
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million
6. The Quiet Ones
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
Box Office Results (April 18-20)
Well… when you mess up, I guess do it big time and, boy, did I ever with Transcendence, the Johnny Depp sci fi thriller. It absolutely tanked at the box office with a terrible $10.8 million fourth place opening. My prediction? $30.8 million. Ouch. This is yet another flop for Depp after disappointments like Dark Shadows and The Lone Ranger. Poor reviews and a weak marketing campaign hurt it and I mistakenly believed Depp’s name would lead it to a respectable opening. Far from it.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier managed a three-peat at #1 over Easter Weekend with $25.5 million, holding better than my $18.9 million. Another surprise besides the Transcendence disaster was the fantastic start for the faith-based Heaven Is for Real. The pic grossed $22.5 million for the three day weekend and $29.5 million from its five day Wednesday start, trumping my respective predictions of $17.5M and $24.8M. This spring has been a great one for Christian themed pictures, including Son of God, God’s Not Dead, and Noah. #3 went to Rio 2 in its sophomore frame with $22.1 million, a bit under my $25.9M projection.
Two more weak debuts marked the weekend – the horror sequel A Haunted House 2 flopped with $8.8 million for fifth place, below my $10.6M projection. Disney’s nature doc Bears failed to bring in an audience with a meager $4.7 million for tenth place. I predicted $8.8 million.
I’ll try to do better next time, my blog reading friends!
This Friday brings the British horror flick The Quiet Ones, which comes from the same studio that had a hit a couple of years back with The Woman in Black. Starring “Mad Men” actor Jared Harris and up and comer Sam Claflin, the pic arrives just two weeks following the muted $12 million debut of Oculus. It’s hard at this point to see The Quiet Ones topping that.
Like last summer’s smash hit The Conjuring, this one purports to being based on a true story and its set in the 1970s. Plot similarities aside – don’t expect a Conjuring size success here. I actually believe The Quiet Ones will struggle to reach double digits and will probably come in third out of the three new entries this weekend, after The Other Woman and Brick Mansions. Quiet indeed.
The Quiet Ones opening weekend prediction: $9.4 million
The late Paul Walker headlines the action thriller Brick Mansions which debuts this Friday. This is one of the star’s final roles before his tragic auto accident that claimed his life in the fall of 2013 and it features a script from Luc Besson and costars Wu-Tang Clan founder RZA.
The marketing for Mansions has ramped up a bit in the last couple of weeks and it will be interesting to see how Walker’s presence translates into box office dollars. Truth be told, Mr. Walker was never much of a box office draw outside of the massive Fast and Furious franchise and there’s nothing much about this film’s TV spots that make it look noteworthy.
My gut feeling is that audiences will, for the most part, wait until the seventh Fast flick in 2015 to bid farewell to the late actor and Brick Mansions should have a debut in the low double digits.
Brick Mansions opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million
Cameron Diaz and romantic comedies are usually a formula that mix well together at the box office and this Friday, we’ll see if that pans out again with The Other Woman. In the past few years, Diaz has seen What Happens in Vegas debut to $20 million and Bad Teacher get off to a $31 million start. Both of those pics had higher profile summer release slots, while this one gets the late April slot which marks the last weekend before the onslaught of tent pole summer releases hit.
The Other Woman features costars Leslie Mann, Kate Upton, and rapper Nicki Minaj in a tale of women bonded together by one cheating hubby. I haven’t seen a whole lot of marketing for it – but to be fair – I probably don’t frequent the channels where this is being touted. Reviews should pretty much be a non-factor as it currently stands at 45% on Rotten Tomatoes – certainly not great, but not terrible either.
As I see it, The Other Woman is unlikely to reach the heights of the two previously mentioned Diaz movies, but I’ll say it gets just under $20M and that should be enough to make it #1 this weekend before Spider-Man swoops in and kicks off the blockbuster season.
The Other Woman opening weekend prediction: $18.1 million
On this coming Easter weekend, four new titles make their debut at multiplexes: the Johnny Depp sci-fi thriller Transcendence, the Christian themed drama Heaven Is for Real, the horror parody sequel A Haunted House 2, and the Disney nature doc Bears. You can find my individual prediction posts on each right here:
My predictions reflect a belief that Transcendence should open first, though it may face competition from Rio 2 in its second weekend. That animated sequel should suffer a rather small decline that isn’t as steep as last weekend’s returning champ Captain America: The Winter Soldier.
Heaven Is for Real could be poised for a solid opening with its shrewd Easter debut while I see fairly disappointing results for A Haunted House 2 and Bears.
And with that – my top six predictions for the holiday weekend:
1. Transcendence
Predicted Gross: $30.8 million
2. Rio 2
Predicted Gross: $25.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)
3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)
4. Heaven Is for Real
Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (predicted five-day opening of $24.8 million)
5. A Haunted House 2
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
6. Bears
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
Box Office Results (April 11-13)
As predicted, Captain America: The Winter Soldier held onto the top spot in its sophomore weekend with $41.2 million, a bit below my $45.3M prediction. The animated Rio 2 opened right on pace with its predecessor with $39.3 million (the first did $39.2M out of the gate), slightly below my $41.7M estimate. The horror flick Oculus had a middling start with $12 million for third place, just above my $11M projection while Kevin Costner’s Draft Day had a weak fourth place debut with only $9.7 million, under my $13.2M estimate. Noah rounded out the top five with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.4M prediction.
Two years ago around Earth Day, Disney found success with their nature documentary Chimpanzee which grossed over $10 million in its debut. This year the studio will attempt to replicate that success with Bears, a doc narrated by John C. Reilly.
The pic follows a family of grizzly bears in Alaska and is primed to open four days before Earth Day. Marketed primarily to kids, Bears does face competition from Rio 2 in its sophomore weekend. If Bears were to reach double digits like Chimpanzee did, Disney should be pleased with the results. I’ll predict it opens just under that. While my reasoning isn’t exactly scientific, it’s based on the hunch that more moviegoers would turn out for chimps than bears! Just my guess and we’ll see if I’m right.
Arriving just 15 months after the unexpected success of its predecessor, A Haunted House 2 starring Marlon Wayans hits theaters Friday. The horror flick parody follows the original which debuted in January 2013 to a solid $18 million opening weekend on its way to a $40 million domestic gross.
While the original was a sleeper hit (especially considering its miniscule $2.5 million budget), expectations are a little more this time around. In my estimation, this sequel won’t match up either. Simply put, while A Haunted House did good business, audiences weren’t overly impressed by what they saw. This helps explain why it did nearly half its overall gross in the first three days.
While A Haunted House 2 certainly could approach what the first accomplished, I think it’s unlikely. As I see it, this will struggle and a likely gross is in the low double digits seems in the cards.
A Haunted House 2 opening weekend prediction: $10.6 million
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