Nearly ten years after its predecessor performed solidly at the box office, Sin City: A Dame to Kill For makes it theatrical debut Friday. Original directors Robert Rodriguez and Frank Miller are back behind the camera, based on Miller’s work from his acclaimed graphic novel. Several stars of the 2005 pic return – including Jessica Alba, Bruce Willis, Rosario Dawson, Mickey Rourke, Powers Boothe and Jaime King. Newcomers to the sequel include Joseph Gordon Levitt, Josh Brolin, Lady Gaga, Dennis Haysbert, Christopher Lloyd, Ray Liotta, and Jeremy Piven.
It was the spring of 2005 when Sin City did great business of the gate domestically with $29 million. However, it would suffer large declines in subsequent weekends and its final gross was a respectable $74 million. The big question is whether too much time has passed for audiences to really be clamoring for a sequel?
I have my doubts. The original was mostly well-received and there will be some who are excited to see it (myself included). However, the near decade long wait makes it unlikely that Dame will approach the performance of the first. I would be surprised if it exceeds $25 million in its debut and believe a high teens to low 20s debut is more likely.
Sin City: A Dame to Kill For opening weekend prediction: $20.8 million
This weekend – three new titles (The Expendables 3, Let’s Be Cops, The Giver) open and attempt to compete with the second weekend of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and third weekend of Guardians of the Galaxy. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on the newbies here:
As I see it, there could be a legitimate four-way race for the #1 spot – something that’s extremely rare. Ninja Turtles opened WAY beyond expectations (more on that below) yet its mediocre B Cinemascore likely means a big drop in its sophomore frame. Guardians should hold up better, creating a tight race with Turtles. The wild cards are the third Expendables and Let’s Be Cops. Either one could easily exceed my expectations and debut at #1. However, my predictions reflect a belief that Turtles barely manages to outdo Galaxy with Expendables and Cops third and fourth. The badly marketed The Giver should round out the top five.
And with that, my predictions for the mid-August top five:
1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 60%)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $24.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)
3. The Expendables 3
Predicted Gross: $21.5 million
4. Let’s Be Cops
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million (opens Wednesday: $23.4 million predicted for five-day debut)
5. The Giver
Predicted Gross: $11 million
Box Office Results (August 8-10)
Box office prognosticators like me were shell shocked this weekend by the terrific performance of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, which posted the fourth largest August opening ever with $65.5 million, way beyond my $28.2M projection. A sequel was greenlit immediately and a new Turtle franchise is born. I was clearly way off on believing the pizza-loving amphibians popularity had waned. Whoops.
Guardians of the Galaxy held up well in weekend #2 with $42.1 million, in line with my $42.9M prediction. The Marvel blockbuster has amassed a fantastic $176M in ten days.
Opening decently in third was disaster flick Into the Storm with $17.3 million, ahead of my $13.6M estimate. Look for it to fall pretty far in its second weekend, though. The Helen Mirren comedic drama The Hundred-Foot Journey debuted fourth with $10.9 million, on pace with my $10.7M projection. Holdover Lucy rounded out the top five with $9.4 million, just ahead of my $8.1M prediction. Newcomer Step Up: All In kept the dance franchise’s earnings plummeting with only $6.4 million, below my $8.4M estimate. Finally, the James Brown biopic Get On Up continues its highly disappointing run. I believed it wouldn’t fall much in weekend two, but it certainly did. Up was down 62% with $5.1 million, well below my generous $8.8M prediction.
The Giver opens Friday and the youth oriented science fiction flick poses a serious question: will audiences turn out for it and who is the intended audience? The Weinstein Company seems to have little faith in the project and its marketing campaign has been quite underwhelming. Based on a 1993 Lois Lowry novel, the pic does have some serious talent behind it. The adult stars are Oscar winners Jeff Bridges (who coproduced) and Meryl Streep, with Katie Holmes and singer Taylor Swift in supporting roles. Phillip Noyce, director of Patriot Games and Salt, is behind the camera.
Aside from its subdued marketing, other challenges face The Giver. If it’s going for the youth audience, there’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy to contend with. The film’s budget is a meager $30 million and yet it still may struggle to recoup that cost domestically. The Giver could struggle to reach double digits, but I’ll predict it does manage that unimpressive benchmark for what’ll likely be a fifth place opening next weekend.
Last summer, the raunchy comedy We’re the Millers was a breakout August hit which opened on a Wednesday. The Jennifer Aniston/Jason Sudeikis pic took in $37 million over its five-day frame and $26 million from Friday to Sunday, on its way to grossing over $150M domestically. This Friday, Let’s Be Cops with Jake Johnson and Damon Wayans, Jr. will attempt the same feat.
While I believe Cops could be poised for a solid debut, it seems to me that Millers territory is unlikely. Costarring Andy Garcia and Rob Riggle, Cops has received a robust marketing campaign from Fox and the trailers and TV spots are pretty funny. It’s almost been two months since the last successful comedy, 22 Jump Street, so audiences could be primed for laughs. There’s no reviews yet and that could be somewhat of a factor – seeing that negative critical reaction helped sink last month’s Sex Tape. In addition, unlike Millers, none of the stars of Cops have any sort of box office track record.
That said, the dearth of comedies out now should lead this to a three day opening in the high teens and a possible mid 20s five day haul.
Let’s Be Cops opening weekend prediction: $17.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $23.4 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)
For my prediction on The Expendables 3, click here:
Sylvester Stallone and his geriatric all-star group of action icons are back once again in The Expendables 3, out Friday. This franchise has been a consistent one this decade with the first and second installments being released on the same mid-August weekend in 2010 and 2012. However, there is a discouraging trend with the series. While the original took in $34 million opening weekend with an overall $103M domestic haul, the follow-up couldn’t keep pace. The Expendables 2 made $28 million out of the gate with a final $85M gross. Stallone hasn’t seen any of his other recent projects perform well and it’s easy to see where #3 could continue the downward performance of the franchise.
It must be said that Stallone’s ability to get genre stars on board is impressive. The Expendables 3 features Arnold Schwarzenegger, Mel Gibson, Harrison Ford, Jason Statham, Jet Li, Wesley Snipes, Antonio Banderas, Dolph Lundgren, Terry Crews, Randy Couture, and Kelsey Grammer. However, I don’t feel all that star power will translate to a very impressive debut. An opening on par with the last entry’s $28M seems unlikely, though I think the series has just enough juice (not a steroid reference) to get it past $20M.
The Expendables 3 opening weekend prediction: $21.5 million
This Friday, four new titles will try to knock massive hit Guardians of the Galaxy from its perch atop the box office. They are the franchise reboot of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, found footage disaster flick Into the Storm, the Helen Mirren led comedic drama The Hundred-Foot Journey, and dance competition sequel Step Up: All In. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
The only newbie with a fair shot of challenging Guardians would seem to be Turtles. However, I am going on the low end of expectations for it. Some have it grossing above $30 million and even closer to $40M, but I believe excitement isn’t quite that high and a robust second weekend for Guardians may hurt it.
Into the Storm looks like a relative flop to me, though some have it outpacing my estimate. The Hundred-Foot Journey should barely top double digits while diminishing results for each successive Step Up flick could hurt All In.
As for holdovers, Guardians got off to a truly spectacular start (more on that below). It will likely fall in the same range as other Marvel hits in their sophomore weekends. In its third weekend, Luc Besson’s Lucy should continue to lose over half its audience. The James Brown biopic Get On Up got off to a disappointing start, but with its A Cinemascore grade, I see it having the smallest decline in its second weekend.
And with that – we’ll do a Top Seven for my projections this weekend:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $42.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Predicted Gross: $28.2 million
3. Into the Storm
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
4. The Hundred-Foot Journey
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million
5. Get On Up
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 34%)
6. Step Up: All In
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
7. Lucy
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)
Box Office Results (August 1-3)
As previously mentioned, Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy got off to an astonishingly terrific run with $94.3 million. The very well-reviewed pic boasted the third highest opening of 2014, behind Transformers: Age of Extinction and Captain America: The Winter Soldier. It opened nearly $20M above my $74.6M prediction. Guardians may well be in a position to eventually become the summer’s largest grosser. Simply put, the Marvel gravy train keeps chugging along…
Lucy dropped to second with $18.2 million in its sophomore weekend, above my $16.6M projection. The Scarlett Johannson actioner has taken in $79M so far and should certainly top $100M domestically.
Get On Up had a lackluster premiere with $13.5 million, way below my $24.9M estimate. It received solid reviews, especially for star Chadwick Boseman, yet it failed to bring in its intended adult audience.
Hercules dropped to fourth in weekend #2 with $11 million, below my $13M prediction. The Rock’s flick has earned $52 million and should top out around $75M.
In fifth was Dawn of the Planet of the Apes in its fourth weekend with $8.6 million, on target with my $8.5M estimate. Dawn has made $189M and should get to around $215M overall.
While I certainly won’t purport to be an expert in the Step Up film franchise, I can read box office numbers. And there is no doubt that this eight year old series of dance flicks has been on a downward trajectory. Step Up: All In marks the fifth (yes, fifth) entry in the boogie down competition pictures. Each has grossed less than the previous installment.
The 2006 original opened to $20M on its way to a $65M domestic gross. Its 2008 follow-up Step Up 2 the Streets premiered to $18M with an eventual $58M haul. The third pic in 2010 – Step Up 3-D opened to $15M with a $42M overall take. And All In‘s 2012 predecessor Step Up Revolution took in $11M out of the gate with a final gross of $35M.
I see no compelling reason why All In won’t carry on the trend of diminished earnings. I’ll even predict the fifth pic will be the first that fails to debut in double digits, though it should come fairly close.
Step Up: All In opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million
For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles prediction, click here:
Oscar winner Helen Mirren stars in the comedy/drama The Hundred-Foot Journey from Lasse Hallstrom, director of The Cider House Rules. Focusing on an Indian family who relocate to France to open a restaurant only to be met with opposition from Mirren’s nearby restaurateur, it’s based on a 2010 novel and its TV ads have promoted its producers as much as the award winning star.
That’s because the producers include Steven Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey and ads have featured both extolling the film’s virtues. Journey is certainly attempting to appeal to adults tired of blockbusters and fans of the Oprah brand, which certainly isn’t insignificant. Strong reviews would be needed to propel this to hit status and, so far, they seem to be mixed. Opening on approximately 2000 screens – I’ll predict it will find slight counterprogramming success which should allow an opening gross just above double digits.
The Hundred-Foot Journey opening weekend prediction: $10.7 million
For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles prediction, click here:
This Friday – yet another “found footage” action flick comes our way with Into the Storm, concentrating on a devastating tornado. The Warner Bros. release faces serious action competition with Guardians of the Galaxy, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, and even Lucy‘s third weekend. There are no stars headlining the project, though there are some recognizable faces including The Hobbit‘s Richard Armitage, “Walking Dead” actress Sarah Wayne Callies, and “Veep” costar Matt Walsh.
It’s hard to see how Into the Storm breaks through to audiences in a big way. The trailers haven’t been real successful in making this look like any other than a low-rent Twister knockoff. Made for a relatively modest $50 million, Storm may even struggle to recoup its budget stateside. With serious competition and little driving moviegoers to see it unless you’re a major bad weather fan, I’ll predict Storm opens south of $15 million.
Into the Storm opening weekend prediction: $13.6 million
For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles prediction, click here:
Almost 25 years after they first made their debut on the silver screen – Leonardo, Raphael, Michelangelo, and Donatello are back as the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, hitting theaters Friday. The franchise has been rebooted with Nickelodeon and Michael Bay producing for Paramount Pictures. Former Transformers star Megan Fox headlines the cast as April O’Neil with Will Arnett and William Fichtner costarring and Jackass‘s Johnny Knoxville voicing Leonardo.
It is a legitimate question as to whether the TMNT franchise is strong enough to ensure a healthy debut. As mentioned, it’s been nearly a quarter century since the pizza lovin’ crime fighters hit the multiplex and about 20 years since the last installment of the original trilogy. A 2007 computer animated entry TMNT only managed $54 million domestically. Recently, the Turtles have been featured in a hit Nickelodeon cartoon that’s about to enter its third season and that should help a bit.
Truth be told – the biggest Turtle hurdle may be another team of heroes, the Guardians of the Galaxy. Marvel’s latest flick got off to a fantastic and record setting August opening. Its second weekend should also be huge and many of TMNT’s target audience could be watching Guardians for the first time or going back for seconds.
I believe the Turtles name recognition will be enough to earn a debut in the high 20s, which would be considered a bit of a letdown due to its reported $125 million price tag. With that predicted number, it should fall behind Guardians and have to settle for a second place opening.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles opening weekend prediction: $28.2 million
