As expected, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 took the top spot at the box office this weekend, but it did not have the biggest September debut of all time as I incorrectly predicted. The animated sequel earned $35 million, good for the fourth highest opening of the month. This was well below my $48.1M projection.

Last weekend’s champ Prisoners fell a bit further than I anticipated grossing $11.2 million for second place (I predicted $12.7M). The rest of the top five was filled with newcomers as Ron Howard’s Rush got the bronze prize with a muted $10.3 million opening, well below my generous $17.2M projection. I did better with my estimates for the four and five spots as the Paula Patton romantic comedy Baggage Claim was fourth with $9.3 million (I said $9.5M) and Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s Don Jon was fifth with $9 million (just above my $8M projection).

Be sure to check the blog later today for my projection for next weekend’s trio of newbies: Gravity, Runner Runner, and Metallica Through the Never.

After a fairly toned down last three weekends in which only five new pictures premiered, the floodgates open this coming weekend with four new wide releases: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, Ron Howard’s Formula One racing flick Rush, the Paula Patton romantic comedy Baggage Claim, and Don Jon, which marks Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s directorial debut.

You can find my individual prediction posts on each right here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/cloudy-with-a-chance-of-meatballs-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/rush-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/don-jon-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/baggage-claim-box-office-prediction/

Unless any of the new entries fall below $6.5 million (which is about what Insidious: Chapter 2 may make in its third weekend), the four new pics should all populate the top five. I’m predicting that they will. That leaves Prisoners in its second weekend as the only predicted holdover and it should fall no more than 40% in its sophomore frame.

And with that, my prognosis for the weekend’s top five:

1. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

Predicted Gross: $48.1 million

2. Rush

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

3. Prisoners

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Baggage Claim

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

5. Don Jon

Predicted Gross: $8 million

I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results on the blog Sunday!

Movies like Baggage Claim are the type that drive box office prognosticators like me crazy. It’s marketed primarily toward an African-American female audience and those pictures tend to debut higher than expected. It stars Mrs. Robin Thicke (and Alan Thicke’s daughter-in-law) Paula Patton, Djimon Hounsou, and Taye Diggs and the romantic comedy aims to bring in the kind of numbers that Jumping the Broom did two years ago. That film also starred Patton and greatly exceeded expectations with a $15 million opening. Could lightning strike twice?

It wouldn’t surprise me at all, but Baggage Claim is the kind of flick that could make $5 million in its opening or $15 million. It could open on par with Jumping the Broom or just as easily suffer the fate that Tyler Perry Presents Peeples did this summer. That pic was marketed toward the same audience and bombed with a $4.6 million debut. I’ll be honest here. I think Claim is probably going to open on the lower end of the possibility scale, but I’m hedging my bets by going in the middle.

Baggage Claim opening weekend prediction: $9.5 million

For my Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/cloudy-with-a-chance-of-meatballs-2-box-office-prediction/

For Rush, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/rush-box-office-prediction/

For Don Jon, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/don-jon-box-office-prediction/

Joseph Gordon-Levitt makes his directorial debut and stars in Don Jon, an R rated romantic comedy that seems to be generating mostly positive reviews so far. The actor has certainly seen his share of box office hits in the last few years with Inception, The Dark Knight Rises, and Looper. He couldn’t help Premium Rush turn into a hit last year, on the other hand.

Don Jon costars Scarlett Johannson and Julianne Moore, not to mention Tony Danza (!) as Gordon-Levitt’s father. With a mere $5 million budget, Jon shouldn’t have any trouble making its money back but competition should hurt this from breaking out of the pack. Young adult audiences should still be seeing Prisoners in its second weekend and Rush in its debut frame. I don’t see this reaching double digits, unless females turn out at a higher than expected rate. I’m skeptical – Don Jon appears to be no Magic Mike.

Don Jon opening weekend prediction: $8 million

For my prediction on Rush, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/rush-box-office-prediction/

For my Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 forecast, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/cloudy-with-a-chance-of-meatballs-2-box-office-prediction/

For Baggage Claim, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/baggage-claim-box-office-prediction/

Can a 1970s era true-life sports flick about Formula One racing break out of the pack and become a box office hit? Indicators are beginning to point towards yes but whether Rush has a big opening is very much an open question.

Ron Howard’s pic starring Chris Hemsworth and Daniel Bruhl screened at the Toronto Film Festival earlier this month to mostly rave reviews. Critics say this one is an audience pleaser, but you have to wonder what kind of opening the solid buzz will translate to. Rush seems more destined to have a decent debut followed by relatively small dropoffs in subsequent weekends. For comparisons sake, Moneyball opened two years ago to similar buzz with a $19.5 million start. However, that title featured Brad Pitt and was about baseball. Yes, Rush has Thor himself with Hemsworth, but he’s no Pitt and certainly Formula One racing does not have the broad appeal that baseball does.

Still, the film has been well-publicized and I am predicting that Rush falls just a couple million under the opening of the aforementioned picture.

Rush opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million

For my prediction on the opening for Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/cloudy-with-a-chance-of-meatballs-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Don Jon prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/don-jon-box-office-prediction/

For my Baggage Claim prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/baggage-claim-box-office-prediction/

Opening four years after its predecessor, the question really isn’t whether Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 opens at #1 (it will). The real question is can the sequel have the best September debut of all time? It can.

On this same final September weekend last year, Adam Sandler’s animated Hotel Transylvania set the September record with a $42 million debut. The original Cloudy opened just north of $30 million in 2009, but displayed remarkable legs and ended up with a $124 million domestic gross. The sequel, featuring the voices of Bill Hader, Anna Faris, James Caan, Andy Samberg, and Neil Patrick Harris, should have no problem eclipsing the opening weekend of the original. And it seems poised to inch higher than the record-setting Transylvania opening just a year ago.

Don’t get me wrong. We’re not talking Despicable Me 2 here, but a Cloudy forecast of a mid to high 40s opening seems like the most probable scenario.

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 opening weekend prediction: $48.1 million

For my prediction on the opening for Rush, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/rush-box-office-prediction/

For my Don Jon prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/don-jon-box-office-prediction/

For my Baggage Claim prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/22/baggage-claim-box-office-prediction/

The Hugh Jackman child abduction drama/thriller Prisoners easily took the top spot at the box office this weekend with a solid opening of $21.4 million, surpassing my $18.4M projection. With an A- Cinemascore average, Prisoners will likely hold up pretty well in future weekends even though there’s plenty of product coming in the next couple of weeks (Rush, Gravity) competing for many of the same moviegoers.

Insidious: Chapter 2 slid to second and dropped a bit further than my estimate earning $14.5 million (I predicted $15.9M). The Robert De Niro comedy The Family was third in its sophomore frame with $7 million, just above my $6.4M prediction. The Spanish language comedy Instructions Not Included actually outdid its gross last weekend with $5.7 million for fourth. I wrongly did not include it in the top five.

Finally, I incorrectly gave the urban dance pic Battle of the Year with Chris Brown far too much credit. I predicted it would open with $10.3 million for a third place showing. Oops. Battle managed a meager $5 million for the #5 spot.

Later today, I’ll have my individual prediction posts up for the four new titles coming out next week: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, Rush, Don Jon, and Baggage Claim.