Author: toddmthatcher

Captain America: Civil War Box Office Prediction

Summer 2016 kicks off in grand Disney/Marvel fashion when Captain America: Civil War debuts next Friday. It is the first weekend of May’s only wide release, as no other studio would dare try counter programming against this surefire juggernaut. This is the third entry in the Captain America franchise, but it is essentially a third Avengers feature as Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man, Paul Rudd’s Ant-Man, Jeremy Renner’s Hawkeye, Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow, Don Cheadle’s War Machine, Anthony Mackie’s Falcon, Elizabeth Olsen’s Scarlet Witch, and the debuts of Chadwick Boseman’s Black Panther and Tom Holland’s Spider-Man all join Chris Evans’ Cap for this extravaganza. Sebastian Shaw, William Hurt, and Daniel Bruhl also appear. Essentially, only Thor and Hulk are missing here.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe has been a multi-billion dollar bonanza for Disney and Marvel Studios. This 13th picture in the MCU has been greeted with terrific buzz and trailers and its critical response stands at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some critics have gone as far to call it the best MCU movie thus far and this has led to expectations for its opening being understandably sky-high.

How high are we talking? Civil War seems primed to have at least the fifth largest domestic debut of all time. To do so, it would need to top Iron Man 3 and its $174 million opening and $175M seems to be on the lower end of expectations. The current #4 record belongs to summer 2015’s first flick, Avengers: Age of Ultron, which made $191 million. #3 is the original Avengers at $207 million with last summer’s Jurassic World second at $208 million.

The only record I don’t see this competing for is the big daddy – Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which earned $247 million in December. I believe Civil War, with buzz hotter than Ultron, will manage have a larger start and I really wouldn’t be surprised if it does indeed top $200 million. I’m going to peg it at just below what 2012’s Avengers accomplished to make it the second largest MCU debut and fourth highest all-time opening.

Captain America: Civil War opening weekend prediction: $205.6 million

 

My Top 100 Prince Songs of All Time: Nos. 60-51

Day 5 of my personal Top 100 Prince tracks gets us almost to the halfway mark, covering entries 60-51. They are:

60. “3121” from 3121 (2006)

59. “Strange Relationship” from Sign O The Times (1987)

58. “When You Were Mine” from Dirty Mind (1980)

57. “Soft and Wet” from For You (1978)

56. “Hot Thing” from Sign O The Times (1987)

55. “Take Me With U” from Purple Rain (1984)

54. “Days of Wild” from Crystal Ball (1997)

53. “Mountains” from Parade (1986)

52. “Partyman” from Batman (1989)

51. “Money Don’t Matter 2Nite” from Diamonds and Pearls (1991)

Numbers 50-41 tomorrow…

My Top 100 Prince Songs of All Time: Nos. 70-61

Day 4 brings numbers 70-61 of my personal top 100 tracks from Prince’s storied career:

70. “Endorphinmachine” from The Gold Experience (1995)

69. “Starfish and Coffee” from Sign O The Times (1987)

68. “Billy Jack Bitch” from The Gold Experience (1995)

67. “17 Days” – B side single (1984)

66. “Forever in My Life” from Sign O The Times (1987)

65. “The Ballad of Dorothy Parker” from Sign O The Times (1987)

64. “Scandalous” from Batman (1989)

63. “Dirty Mind” from Dirty Mind (1980)

62. “Delirious” from 1999 (1982)

61. “The Max” from The Symbol Album (1992)

Numbers 60-51 out tomorrow!

Box Office Predictions: April 29-May 1

Three new entries populate the box office this weekend as the Key and Peele comedy Keanu, Jennifer Aniston/Julia Roberts dramedy Mother’s Day, and video game based animated pic Ratchet & Clank open. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/22/keanu-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/22/mothers-day-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/23/ratchet-clank-box-office-prediction/

None of them are likely to knock Disney’s The Jungle Book off its perch at #1, which will be the third weekend on top for Mowgli and friends.

Keanu and Mother’s Day should nab the #2 and #3 positions. I have The Huntsman Winter’s War dropping to fourth and it should have a pretty hefty decline after its disappointing opening (more on that below).

I’m not expecting much out of Ratchet & Clank and have it fighting for fifth with the third weekend of Barbershop: The Next Cut and slightly losing that battle.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Jungle Book

Predicted Gross: $37.9 million (representing a drop of 38%)

2. Keanu

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

3. Mother’s Day

Predicted Gross: $14.7 million

4. The Huntsman Winter’s War

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Barbershop: The Next Cut

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 41%)

6. Ratchet & Clank

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (April 22-24)

Disney’s The Jungle Book kept swinging along in its sophomore frame with $61.5 million, just above my $59M projection for a two-week tally of $192M. As mentioned, it should easily retain its #1 status next weekend before another Mouse Factory entry – Captain America: Civil War – does its thing in a few days.

The weekend’s major newcomer was also quite a high-profile flop. The Huntsman Winter’s War, the sort of prequel/sequel to 2012’s hit Snow White and the Huntsman, earned just $19.4 million (lower than my $26.3M estimate). With a reported $115 million budget, War couldn’t overcome toxic reviews and the absence of Kristen Stewart (aka Snow White). The pic may struggle to even reach the $56 million that Snow White made in its opening weekend. Ouch.

Barbershop: The Next Cut was third in its second weekend with $10.5 million, in line with my $11.2M prediction for a total of $35M.

Zootopia was fourth with $6.5 million, higher than my estimate of $5M for a $316M total.

Melissa McCarthy’s The Boss rounded out the top five with $6.2 million, ahead of my $4.9M projection for a three-week take of $49M (pretty low for one of her comedies).

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

My Top 100 Prince Songs of All Time: Nos. 80-71

Day three of my personal Top 100 Prince songs is here, covering numbers 80-71. And they are as follows…

80. “Illusion, Coma, Pimp, and Circumstance” from Musicology (2004)

79. “Irresistible Bitch” – B side single (1982)

78. “Old Friends 4 Sale” from The Vault: Old Friends 4 Sale (1999)

77. “The Dance” from 3121 (2006)

76. “I Feel for You” from Prince (1979)

75. “All the Critics Love U in New York” from 1999 (1982)

74. “Damn U” from The Symbol Album (1992)

73. “Sexy Dancer” from Prince (1979)

72. “Dolphin” from The Gold Experience (1995)

71. “Something in the Water (Does Not Compute) from 1999 (1982)

Numbers 70-61 coming to you tomorrow…

My Top 100 Prince Songs of All Time: Nos. 90-81

We have arrived at day two of my personal Top 100 Prince tracks in his vast and glorious catalogue and that means numbers 90-81:

90. “Love” from 3121 (2006)

89. “Le Grind” from The Black Album (1994)

88. “The Cross” from Sign O The Times (1987)

87. “The Future” from Batman (1989)

86. “Dinner with Delores” from Chaos and Disorder (1996)

85. “Slow Love” from Sign O The Times (1987)

84. “Gold” from The Gold Experience (1995)

83. “International Lover” from 1999 (1982)

82. “Love 2 the 9’s” from The Symbol Album (1992)

81. “The Morning Papers” from The Symbol Album (1992)

I’ll have numbers 80-71 up tomorrow!

My Top 100 Prince Songs of All Time: Nos. 100-91

Ever since the dawn of this blog three and a half years ago, I’ve long considered doing a top 100 Prince songs. For those who don’t know me, let me profess that Prince has been my singular favorite musical artist since I’ve been a young kid. I was fortunate enough to see him in concert 14 times. I know the ins and outs of his 39 albums and many B sides very well.

I mainly never did it for one reason: it’s really difficult to find videos of his work online as Prince was fiercely protective of his catalogue. That means good luck finding his stuff on YouTube or iTunes, etc… Tidal, by the way, has many on his albums on display.

Now – with the shocking and frankly devastating news from Thursday, I’m compiling my personal top 100 songs from his storied career that spanned nearly 40 years. These will be in ten installments and we begin with 100-91:

100. “Under the Cherry Moon” from Parade (1986)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X8yLOTfVzQU

99. “Movie Star” from Crystal Ball (1997)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3sziBn1tx4

98. “Let’s Have a Baby” from Emancipation (1996)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JcDTlYhkQM4

97. “$” from LotusFlower (2009)

96. “Come” from Come (1994)

95. “Superfunkycalifragisexy” from The Black Album (1994)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kJkpB8vvo0c

94. “AnotherLove” from PlectrumElectrum (2014)

93. “Face Down” from Emancipation (1996)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9qowqBXoFS4

92. “Strollin” from Diamonds and Pearls (1991)

91. “(Eye) Hate U” from The Gold Experience (1995)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rLjvuO5dGhs

If you wish to educate yourself on some of the finest work from this genius, I encourage you to seek these out and I’ll have numbers 90-81 up tomorrow!

Ratchet & Clank Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, the video game based 3D animated feature Ratchet & Clank plays in theaters and will try to gain a fanboy audience and a family audience who may still be distracted by The Jungle Book. The pic features the voices of Paul Giamatti, John Goodman, Bella Thorne, Rosario Dawson, and Sylvester Stallone.

I’m not confident at all that this will manage to ratchet up any business. Films based on video games have a shoddy track record and the aforementioned competition (Disney’s Jungle juggernaut should still be #1) could hinder its potential.

I’ll predict this just clears $5 million and that Ratchet & Clank will be available for viewing on PlayStation consoles in short order.

Ratchet & Clank opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million

For my Keanu prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/22/keanu-box-office-prediction/

For my Mother’s Day prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/22/mothers-day-box-office-prediction/

Mother’s Day Box Office Prediction

Director Garry Marshall is back in holiday themed comedy mode as Mother’s Day hits screens next weekend. This follows 2010’s Valentine’s Day, which took in an amazing $52 million out of the gate. The following year’s New Year’s Eve couldn’t keep up and its toxic reviews helped lead to a muted $13 million debut.

Mother’s Day doesn’t have the cavalcade of stars that the previous entries did, but it does feature Jennifer Aniston, Julia Roberts, Kate Hudson, and Jason Sudeikis. Open Road Films is hopeful this can attract a female crowd while the males could be tempted by Key and Peele’s Keanu, premiering on the same day.

I’ll predict Mother’s Day does manage to outpace New Year’s Eve by a bit, but it won’t come near the love audiences showed for Valentine’s Day.

Mother’s Day opening weekend prediction: $14.7 million

For my Keanu prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/22/keanu-box-office-prediction/

For my Ratchet & Clank prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/23/ratchet-clank-box-office-prediction/

Keanu Box Office Prediction

The comedic stylings of Key (Keegan-Michael Key) and Peele (Jordan Peele) come to the big screen with Keanu, out next weekend. The R rated laugher centers around a cat theft and our leads getting caught up with some violent criminals. Method Man, Gabrielle Union, Nia Long, Will Forte, Luis Guzman, and, yes, Keanu Reeves costar.

Keanu’s dynamic duo are known for their hit Comedy Central show, which just ended its run last year. Their first film vehicle premiered at the South by Southwest Film Festival to solid buzz and its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 75%.

Will audiences follow Key and Peele to the multiplex? If this got to over $20 million in its premiere, Warner Bros would be over the moon. I believe a more likely result is in the mid to high teens.

Keanu opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million

For my Mother’s Day prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/22/mothers-day-box-office-prediction/

For my Ratchet & Clank prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/23/ratchet-clank-box-office-prediction/