February 6-8 Box Office Predictions

Don’t count on a super weekend at the box office as horror sequel The Strangers – Chapter 3 and Kevin James headlined dramedy Solo Mio compete with the dog days of the season and the Super Bowl. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

The Strangers – Chapter 3 Box Office Prediction

Solo Mio Box Office Prediction

I don’t see either title toppling Send Help in its second weekend. The Sam Raimi pic had a better than expected start (more on that below) and should see a drop in the high 40s or low 50s.

In the runner-up position, I have Solo edging Strangers in a close race for (non) bragging rights. That said, either could over or underperform.

After another better than anticipated debut, Melania should see a significantly smaller sophomore decline than Iron Lung as they battle it out for the four spot. That’s with a caveat that the doc about the First Lady might be more front-loaded than my estimate.

Here’s how I see the high five shaking out:

1. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

2. Solo Mio

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

3. The Strangers – Chapter 3

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. Melania

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

5. Iron Lung

Predicted Gross: $4 million

Box Office Predictions (January 30-February 1)

As much of the nation dug out from a winter snowstorm, more of them headed to theaters than I figured. Three of the four newcomers easily surpassed my forecasts. Send Help, capitalizing on solid reviews, was tops with $19.1 million compared to my $13.5 million prediction. The B+ Cinemascore is promising for its genre though I still think it falls around 50% this coming weekend.

Gamer based Iron Lung was right behind in second with $18.1 million, blowing past my measly $8 million projection. This is widely anticipated to make the bulk of its cash right away and I’m calling for a sophomore plummet close to 80%. It is still a terrific gross given the reported $3 million price tag.

Melania also exceeded its range with $7.1 million as the political documentary played best between the coasts in third. I went lower at $4.2 million.

Holdovers held up well with Zootopia 2 actually gaining 12% over the previous weekend with $5.9 million. I incorrectly had it outside of my top 6. The ten-week tally is $409 million.

Avatar: Fire and Ash rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $4.9 million). After seven weeks, it has amassed $386 million.

Jason Statham action thriller Shelter was not found by many fans in sixth with $5.5 million compared to my $6.9 million take.

Finally, sci-fi courtroom saga Mercy fell 58% and from 1st to 7th with $4.5 million, in line with my $4.7 million guesstimate. The two-week total is $19 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…