This coming weekend should be very lucky for a songstress you may have heard of named Taylor Swift. Her cinematic airing of The Eras Tour is out on approximately 4000 screens as it looks to dominate the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The power of Swift has propelled the concert doc to hefty pre sales totaling over $100 million worldwide. I’m projecting the domestic take will fall just shy of $140 million. That would give it the third best premiere of 2023 behind only Barbie and The Super Mario Bros. Movie.
No other studio dared to open anything against Taylor and her army of Swifties. In fact, The Exorcist Believer moved up its release date to this past weekend. It had a so-so start (more on that below). With a meh C Cinemascore grade, I look for it to fall in the low to mid 60s in its sophomore frame.
The rest of the top five will be filled with holdovers likely dropping in the low to high 40s. Everything should slide a spot with PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, Sax X, and The Creator populating 3-5 in their third weekends.
Here’s how I think it’ll play out:
1. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Predicted Gross: $139.6 million
2. The Exorcist: Believer
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
3. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
4. Saw X
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
5. The Creator
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
Box Office Results (October 6-8)
David Gordon Green’s take on another iconic horror franchise couldn’t come close to his Halloween numbers as The Exorcist: Believer fell slightly short of expectations. The poorly reviewed direct sequel to the 1973 classic scared up $26.4 million compared to my $31.9 million prediction. That’s not terrible, but Universal reportedly ponied up $400 million for the rights to the series with two sequels planned. A mid 20s beginning (coupled with that unimpressive Cinemascore grade) could spell trouble ahead.
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was second with $11.3 million, a bit under my $12.8 million forecast. The animated sequel has grossed a sturdy $38 million in ten days of release.
Saw X had an understandable 57% decline for third with $7.8 million (I was close with $8.3 million). Jigsaw and company’s tenth go-round has $32 million in the bank thus far.
The Creator was fourth with $6.2 million (I said $5.9 million) for a disappointing $25 million in its first two weeks.
I incorrectly didn’t project numbers for The Blind and A Haunting in Venice. They were 5th and 6th respectively with $3.2 million and $2.6 million. The Blind has made $10 million in two weeks while Venice is at $35 million after four frames.
The error was placing The Nun II in fifth. It was seventh with $2.6 million. My prediction? $2.6 million! This horror sequel has achieved $81 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
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