The box office bonanza that is Barbenheimer looks to return to the 1-2 positions as waterlogged horror entry The Last Voyage of the Demeter is the only newcomer this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Demeter may struggle to make de-money (I apologize). Besides the rather bad title, I’m not seeing this have much bite with genre fans. My mid single digits projection puts it in fifth… distantly.
Barbie should have no trouble maintaining the top spot for the fourth weekend in a row. After scoring the 11th largest third frame in domestic history, my $30M+ take gives it the 11th best fourth outing.
Oppenheimer looks to have the slightest decline of the returnees (perhaps mid 30s) and that could mean a bump from 3rd to 2nd.
That’s because current #2 Meg 2: The Trench seems poised for the heftiest dip. Its B- Cinemascore grade (compared to its predecessor’s B+) could mean a 60% plummet after its solid premiere (more on that below).
The second weekend for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (with its A Cinemascore grade) should be rosier with a mid 40s percent downgrade. If that occurs, the crimefighting reptiles might jump to 3rd with Meg in fourth.
Here’s how I see it all playing out:
1. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $30.4 million
2. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $19 million
3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
4. Meg 2: The Trench
Predicted Gross: $12 million
5. The Last Voyage of the Demeter
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
Box Office Results (August 4-6)
I underestimated the giant shark sequel and overestimated the green that the animated reboot would make in respect to Meg 2 and Turtles. As expected, neither came anywhere close to catching Barbie.
The summer smash added another $53 million to its considerable coffers. While that’s under my take of $60.4 million, the $459 domestic cume is astonishing. It also crossed $1 billion worldwide.
Meg 2: The Trench bit off $30 million in second place. That’s well under the $45 million achieved by its predecessor five years back, but ahead of my $24.5 million forecast. The sequel, like the original, will make the bulk of its bucks overseas.
Oppenheimer was third with $29.1 million, right on track with my $29.3 million projection. The acclaimed biopic has amassed $228 million in three weeks.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem generally opened in line with expectations at $28 million from Friday to Sunday and $43 million since its Wednesday bow. I thought it might exceed those numbers and went with $36.1 million and $51.2 million, respectively.
Finally, Haunted Mansion played to empty houses in weekend #2 with a 62% fall in fifth to $9.2 million (I said $11.4 million). The tepid two-week tally is $42 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Keep an eye on the blog this week for my prediction posts on Blue Beetle and Strays and listen to my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your preferred streaming platform…
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