Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Box Office Prediction

Paramount hopes to post franchise best numbers for Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Tom Cruise’s action series that began some 27 years ago and has now reached its seventh installment. It opens Wednesday, July 12th and is the third M:I pic in a row directed by Christopher McQuarrie. Ving Rhames, Simon Pegg, Rebecca Ferguson, Vanessa Kirby, and Henry Czerny (returning for the first time since part 1) reprise their roles with Hayley Atwell, Esai Morales, and Pom Klementieff as newly assigned cast.

With a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating, Reckoning is receiving the same acclaim that greeted predecessors Ghost Protocol (2011), Rogue Nation (2015), and Fallout (2018). Perhaps most importantly, this should benefit from being Cruise’s follow-up to last year’s box office phenomenon that was Top Gun: Maverick. It was easily summer 2022’s (and the year’s) largest grosser and the goodwill left over could launch this Mission to new heights.

In order to do so, Part One (part two is out in a year) would need to top the $61 million that Fallout took in five summers ago in its debut. With a Wednesday head start, a five-day haul over $100 million is certainly achievable.

The Mission movies traditionally leg out nicely throughout the season. With the exception of Ghost Protocol, all have premiered in summer. Many older filmgoers that will make the theatrical trek may not rush out opening weekend.

I’ll project low to mid 70s for the Friday to Sunday earnings as it should come awfully close and potentially exceed nine figures from Wednesday to the weekend’s end.

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One opening weekend prediction: $72.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $102.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)