Box Office Predictions: March 16-18

Over the weekend, even Disney couldn’t knock Disney’s Black Panther off its perch atop the box office for the fourth frame in a row. Might the King’s reign end this weekend with the release of Tomb Raider? We also have teen romantic drama Love, Simon and faith-based true life drama I Can Only Imagine debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:

And that’s not quite all. There’s also the action thriller 7 Days in Entebbe with Daniel Bruhl and Rosamund Pike. It’s slated to come out on a low 800 screens and reviews have not been kind. I think it will be lucky to clear $1 million in its opening and I didn’t bother to do an individual estimate for it.

My estimate for Tomb Raider does give it the #1 slot, albeit not by much. I believe Panther is probably good for another $25M+ weekend and that puts it within striking distance.

Love, Simon is a big question mark in my view. It has sleeper potential due to its subject matter and glowing reviews. It could easily surprise and post a third place debut, but I’ve got it a bit lower in fourth after the second weekend of A Wrinkle in Time. That film, which underwhelmed out of the gate, could lose about half its opening weekend audience.

As for the five spot, I predict Game Night will stay there (vaulting over The Strangers: Prey at Night and Red Sparrow). My $5.4 million projection for I Can Only Imagine leaves it just outside the top 5 (yet even it has the potential to surpass my meager estimate).

And with that, here’s how I have the weekend playing out:

1. Tomb Raider

Predicted Gross: $26.4 million

2. Black Panther

Predicted Gross: $25.7 million

3. A Wrinkle in Time

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

4. Love, Simon

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

5. Game Night

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (March 9-11)

Black Panther held off its most serious competition to date – topping the charts and becoming the highest grossing comic book flick not named The Avengers. Holding the #1 spot for the fourth weekend in a row, Panther made $40.8 million (on target with my $40.2 estimate) for $561 million total. It now appears inevitable that it will surpass the $623 million made by Avengers to become the all-time superhero champ.

A Wrinkle in Time had to settle for the runner-up spot with $33.1 million as it came in on the lower end of estimates (middling reviews probably didn’t help). The heavily promoted fantasy debuted under my forecast of $37.8 million. Depending on its holds over the next few weeks, it could struggle to reach the century club.

As far as newcomers go, the success story of the weekend is long gestating horror sequel The Strangers: Prey at Night, which earned $10.4 million for third and topped my $7.9 million projection. In one weekend, it made double its teeny $5 million budget.

Red Sparrow was fourth in its sophomore outing with $8.5 million (I said $8.1 million) to bring its rather disappointing tally to $31 million.

Peter Rabbit ended up sixth with $6.7 million (I said $7.5 million) for $93 million as it hops towards the $100 million club.

I incorrectly had Game Night outside the top five, but it placed fifth with $7.8 million for $45 million overall.

The Hurricane Heist bombed with moviegoers and earned just $3 million in its ninth place opening, under my $5.6 million prediction. Gringo was another newcomer gaining zero traction with audiences as it made $2.7 million for 11th place (I said $3.1 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

2 thoughts on “Box Office Predictions: March 16-18

  1. You’re prediction on “Tomb Raider” was a bit too high judging by the looks of it. I thought you’re prediction on “Black Panther” wasn’t too bad, just a tad low. But looking at how BP is shaping up this weekend you’re prediction is likely a good $2-$5 million short. I think when actual numbers come in Monday it will be around $29-$30m, I learned to stop underestimating this film after it’s opening weekend lol.

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