Box Office Predictions: February 2-4

Blogger’s Note (01/31): I am revisiting my Winchester prediction from $14.1 million to $9.1 million, which means I’m estimating it goes from first to third.

In what should be a rather lackluster weekend with the Super Bowl being played and the month’s heavy hitters waiting in the wings, Helen Mirren led horror pic Winchester is the only wide release hitting screens as February arrives. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/24/winchester-box-office-prediction/

My low teens predictions for Winchester still might be enough for it to nab the top spot, though it could find itself in a battle with both Jumanji and current top spot holder Maze Runner: The Death Cure. 

The Greatest Showman and Hostiles (coming off a stronger than expected wide release) should round out the top five. And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

2. Maze Runner: The Death Cure

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

3. Winchester

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

4. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

5. Hostiles

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

Box Office Results (January 26-28)

It took nearly a month, but Maze Runner: The Death Cure became the first 2018 title to become #1 at the box office. The third entry in the YA action franchise took in $24.1 million, a bit ahead of my $22.8 million projection. That’s under the previous two entries (which both topped $30 million out of the gate), but decent considering the two-year plus layover between parts 2 and 3. 

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle dropped to second after three weeks on top with $16.1 million (ahead of my $14.9 million forecast) for $337 million overall.

The lone surprise of the weekend would be Hostiles with Christian Bale, which greatly exceeded expectations with $10.1 million in third place. The well-reviewed Western expanded its theater count and placed on the high-end of estimates. I didn’t even have it in my top 5 and predicted a meager $4.8 million. Oops.

The Greatest Showman was fourth with $9.5 million (I said $8.5 million) for a total of $126 million.

The Post rounded out the top five with $9.1 million (I said $9.4 million) for $58 million overall.

Finally, I had 12 Strong in the top five but Hostiles messed that equation up. It grossed $8.6 million compared to my $8.9 million prediction for $28 million in two weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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