The 2016 presidential race may be omnipresent on your small screen for these two weeks (and through November for that matter), but this political season also comes to theaters this weekend as Hillary’s America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party opens wide.
Dinesh D’Souza directs this documentary focused on the presumptive Democratic Party nominee and let’s just say it’s unlikely to be played at next week’s convention for its title subject. D’Souza’s works have a decidedly conservative bent – as evidence by 2012’s 2016: Obama’s America. That pic became the 4th highest grossing documentary of all time domestically and 2nd highest one with a political bent after 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11. It earned $6.5 million in its initial weekend of wide release with an eventual gross of $32.9 million.
Arriving smack dab in the middle of the Republican and Democratic National Conventions, Hillary’s America will look to capitalize on its release date and interest from conservatives who made D’Souza’s previous doc a hit. I see no reason why this wouldn’t accomplish its mission and I have slated to open slightly higher.
Hillary’s America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million
I’m sure any struggling band has horror stories of awful gigs when they were coming up, but the Ain’t Rights have it in the literal sense in Green Room. Jeremy Saulnier’s dark and twisted little thriller that puts this punk rock band in quite a precarious situation. The quintet includes bassist Pat (Anton Yelchin) and guitarist Sam (Alia Shawkat) and they are rather aimlessly traveling the Pacific Northwest in their beat up van going from depressing gig to another.
Their latest performance brings them to a remote location outside Portland (the visuals of Oregon are sumptuous before the pic gets quite claustrophobic) and it turns out to be a scuzzy bar filled with Neo Nazis. Despite their fear, the band plays on and is almost on their way to their next adventure when they witness a murder inside the green room. The proprietors of the establishment are not eager to let them leave and the band finds themselves trapped along with another witness (Imogen Poots). It turns out the place is run by group leader Darcy (Patrick Stewart). He calls the shots as to the future of the band in a long night filled with ain’t right carnage, box cutters, and guard dogs that respond to German commands.
Green Room is a horror movie in which the violence isn’t meant to provoke laughs. Some of the gory outbursts are truly squirm inducing and characters are dispensed of in a way that provides unpredictability. Stewart, in particular, seems to relish this role in which he has no likable character traits whatsoever. The story doesn’t exactly cover any new ground or add new dimensions to the genre, but it’s a straightforward bloody bit of well-crafted mayhem that should please enthusiasts.
Three new titles hit screens this weekend as sequels Star Trek Beyond and Ice Age: Collision Course look to battle for the top spot with low-budget horror pic Lights Out opening as well. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:
My estimates have both sequels not bringing in what their predecessors managed. I have Beyond slated to debut about 25% lower than 2013’s Star Trek Into Darkness with Collision Course premiering a bit below 2012’s Ice Age: Continental Drift. That would give Beyond the edge to open at #1 with Course placing second. My just over double digits projections for Lights Out would put it in fifth.
As for holdovers, two-week champ The Secret Life of Pets should dip to third. Many eyes will be on the second weekend of Ghostbusters, which pretty much debuted in line with expectations (more on that below). However, it may be its second week performance that helps determine its true viability as a budding franchise. I have it losing more than half its audience.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
Star Trek Beyond
Predicted Gross: $53.4 million
2. Ice Age: Collision Course
Predicted Gross: $28.3 million
3. The Secret Life of Pets
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
4. Ghostbusters
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million
5. Lights Out
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
Box Office Results (July 15-17)
Moviegoers called up The Secret Life of Pets and not the Ghostbusters for their most favored title this weekend as the animated mega-hit took in $50.8 million (under my $57.6M prediction) for a ten-day tally of $203M.
The Ghostbusters, as mentioned, premiered in line with most expectations at $46 million – not quite reaching my $47.3M projection. The reboot of the beloved 80s franchise may need a solid second weekend to justify its existence as a franchise. I have my doubts.
The Legend of Tarzan was third, grossing $11.4 million (I was close with $11.1M) and crossing the century mark for a $103M total.
Finding Dory took fourth with $11.2 million. My guess? $11.2M! The Pixar smash and biggest hit of the year thus far has amassed $445M.
Sophomoric comedy Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates rounded out the top five in its sophomore weekend with $7.6 million (a bit under my $8.9M estimate) for a total of $31M.
Finally, the Bryan Cranston crime thriller The Infiltrator landed in seventh place – debuting with $5.3 million over the traditional weekend and $6.7 million since its Wednesday. This just outpaced my respective predictions of $4.6M and $6.1M.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
With its tiny budget of just a reported $5 million, horror pic Lights Out looks to make a tidy profit for Warner Bros when it debuts next Friday. It may star Teresa Palmer, Gabriel Bateman, Billy Burke and Maria Bello, but the biggest name involved is James Wan. He serves as a producer and is the man behind the Conjuring and Insidious franchises.
The film premiered at the Los Angeles Film Festival last month to positive notices and it currently stands at an illuminating 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Critical praise does not equal potent box office returns in this genre, but Lights Out should still manage double digits for its start and that’s enough for its studio to see a decent return.
Lights Out opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million
20th Century Fox’s Ice Age franchise keeps rolling along as Collision Course glides into theaters next weekend. It is the fifth in the series that began in 2002 and the four previous pictures have performed pleasingly. Predecessor Continental Drift was the lowest grosser thus far, but not by much with a $46 million opening and $161 million overall take. 2009’s Dawn of the Dinosaurs was the series high point with $196 million.
Ray Romano, John Leguizamo, Denis Leary, Queen Latifah, Jennifer Lopez, and Simon Pegg (pulling double duty over the weekend with Star Trek Beyond) all return for their voice over work with Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Adam Devine, and Nick Offerman joining the party.
Animals and animation have been a potent box office combo in 2016 and that does mean competition as The Secret Life of Pets should still be raking it in in weekend #3. That could dent Collision Course a bit and I do expect it to post the lowest opening weekend of the franchise so far by a rather substantial margin.
Ice Age: Collision Course opening weekend prediction: $28.3 million
The crew of the USS Enterprise returns for the third time in this current iteration as Star Trek Beyond debuts next weekend with a new director and somewhat decreased expectations. Chris Pine’s Captain Kirk and Zachary Quinto’s Spock headline with crew members Zoe Saldana, Karl Urban, Simon Pegg, John Cho, and Anton Yelchin (who tragically passed away last month) back. Main villain duties are handled by Idris Elba.
J.J. Abrams made the first two franchise entries and he’s still on board as executive producer, but as you may know – he departed for another series with the word Star in it. Justin Lin, known for directing parts 3-6 of the Fast and Furious pics, takes over. Abrams was able to reinvigorate Trek world in 2009 when the reboot opened to $75 million with an eventual $257 million domestic tally. The 2013 follow-up, Star Trek Into Darkness, was a bit lower with a $70 million premiere and overall $228 million gross.
It’s my expectation that Beyond will continue the downward trend and it could be more pronounced here. Excitement for this seems muted. In short, the third time may not be the charm in a summer where we’ve seen a number of sequels not match up to their predecessors. My estimate has this opening about 25% below Darkness and the chances of Beyond going beyond $200 million like the first two appears to be out of reach.
Star Trek Beyond opening weekend prediction: $53.4 million
For my Ice Age: Collision Course prediction, click here:
Blogger’s note – on vacation currently so keeping things shorter and sweeter than normal.
The third weekend of July brings the Ghostbusters (albeit a new team) to theaters for the first time in nearly three decades, as Bryan Cranston’s crime drama The Infiltrator opens Wednesday. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Ghostbusters may fall short of the #1 spot, based on my projection if The Secret Life of Pets falls just over in the 40s after its massive debut (more on that below).
That should leave Tarzan and Dory fighting it out for the three spot with Mike, Dave and their wedding dates rounding out the top five. My projection for The Infiltrator ($4.6 million Friday to Sunday and $6.1M from Wednesday to Sunday) leaves it outside the high five.
With that – my predicted top 5:
The Secret Life of Pets
Predicted Gross: $57.6 million
2. Ghostbusters
Predicted Gross: $47.3 million
3. Finding Dory
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. The Legend of Tarzan
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million
5. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JULY 8-10)
The Secret Life of Pets smashed projections this weekend with $104.3 million – lapping my $73.7M estimate. That’s good for the sixth highest animated debut ever and what’ll surely be a new franchise.
The Legend of Tarzan stayed in second with $21 million (just above my $19.8M prediction) for a two week tally of $81M. Finding Dory slipped to third after three weeks on top with $20.8 million (a touch under my $23.3M forecast) for a $423M overall haul.
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates had a pleasing debut in fourth with $16.6 million, ahead of my prediction of $13.5M.
The Purge: Election Year was fifth with $12.3 million (I said $10.9M) for a ten day total of $58M. Central Intelligence was sixth with $8 million and I incorrectly had outside the top 6. That’s because Steven Spielberg’s The BFG continued its lackluster grosses and dropped further than I anticipated. It was seventh in weekend 2 with $7.8 million – under my $10.6M estimate for a gross of just $38M.
Throwing Bryan Cranston into a dangerous drug dealing world worked out pretty well on the small screen with his iconic role as Walter White on “Breaking Bad”. Next Wednesday, Broad Green Pictures is hoping the same holds true with The Infiltrator.
The 1980s set crime drama has Cranston as a customs agent tasked with the unenviable assignment of going undercover in Pablo Escobar’s drug cartel. Brad Furman, maker of The Lincoln Lawyer and 2013’s unfortunate Runner Runner, directs and the supporting cast includes Diane Kruger, Benjamin Bratt, John Leguizamo, and Amy Ryan. The studio is obviously hoping audiences will be primed for some adult counter programming. Reviews thus far have been pretty positive with much of the acclaim centered on Cranston. Looking over some recent similar genre titles – there is some hope. 2012’s Savages debuted to $16 million. Last year’s Sicario managed just over $12 million out of the gate.
Those are the very best case scenarios here. I believe The Infiltrator probably won’t manage double digits, even when including the five-day roll out. It seems highly unlikely to recoup its reported $47 million budget. The pic might have been better off as an early fall release and its best hope could be that viewers get their fix with it when it becomes available for home viewing.
The Infiltrator opening weekend prediction: $4.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
One of the biggest summer 2016 mysteries will be answered next weekend when the Ghostbusters reboot hits theaters. 32 years after the original became a smash hit (with a less beloved sequel that followed five years later), the Columbia Pictures property is a hopeful franchise yet again. This follows years (decades in fact) of rumors about the comedic paranormal team making a return to the big screen. A third go round with the original cast never materialized, so the series has undergone a makeover with Paul Feig taking over directorial duties and a female ghostbustin’ cast donning the iconic uniforms.
Like they did in 1984 – the Ghostbusters have a strong “Saturday Night Live” connection consisting of frequent host Melissa McCarthy and current and former cast members Kristin Wiig, Kate McKinnon, and Leslie Jones. Chris Hemsworth takes over secretarial duties in the part made famous by Annie Potts. OG ‘Busters Bill Murray, Dan Aykroyd, and Ernie Hudson (along with Sigourney Weaver and Potts) are said to cameo.
This is the fourth collaboration between Feig/McCarthy. They’re previous pics (Bridesmaids, Heat, Spy) have grossed $169M, $159M, and $110M, respectively. This is a whole new ball game that comes with a different set of expectations, however. For starters – the budget is a reported $154 million with a studio likely hoping for a domestic haul in the $200 million range.
That could be a challenge. The word of mouth for Ghostbusters has not been overwhelmingly positive and underwhelming trailers had a little something to do with it. The first trailer even earned headlines for being the most disliked trailer in YouTube’s history. Buzz aside, it’s been marketed relentlessly in recent weeks.
The release poses a whole bunch of questions that won’t be answered until its opening: will younger viewers turn out for a franchise that’s laid dormant for nearly 30 years? Will the negative trailer reaction greatly hinder its potential? If and when the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man returns, is it the same one from the original or his offspring?
Ghostbusters, even with the lengthy time passed between entries, is still a massive brand name and the name alone should get it to a $40 million opening. How much above that number seems to be the real question. I’ll predict that it falls just under $50M in the opening weekend. How it plays out in subsequent weekends will answer the question for the studio as to whether those grosses make them feel good.
Ghostbusters opening weekend prediction: $47.3 million
The second weekend of July brings us two new entries as the animated The Secret Life of Pets and raunchy comedy Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates both debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I have Pets slated to land the 11th highest animated premiere of all time, which will easily be enough to dominate the weekend and end the three-week reign of Dory, which should fall to 2nd.
As for Mike and Dave, I’m anticipating a rather soft opening in the low teens – which should mean it battling for anywhere between fourth and sixth with holdovers The Purge: Election Year (which should suffer a large decline in its second frame after a healthy debut) and The BFG (which hopes to have a somewhat meager decline after a very disappointing opening). My estimates have it holding a slight edge over the holdovers. The Legend of Tarzan, which greatly exceeded the expectations of most, should have third place to itself.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
The Secret Life of Pets
Predicted Gross: $73.7 million
2. Finding Dory
Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)
3. The Legend of Tarzan
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)
4. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
5. The Purge: Election Year
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 65%)
6. The BFG
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (July 1-4)
As expected, Disney/Pixar’s Finding Dory had a three peat at #1 over the long Fourth of July weekend. The pic (which seems well on its way to becoming summer 2016’s biggest earner) took in $41.8 million and $51.4 million over the traditional three-day and holiday four-day weekend, respectively. This topped my predictions of $35.6M and $44M to bring Dory to an overall $381 million – just a bit over $20M under where the current season champ Captain America: Civil War sits.
One of the big stories of the weekend was the larger than expected haul for The Legend of Tarzan. Despite mostly negative reviews and prognostications that it would not perform well, it opened with $38.5 million (three-day) and $46.5 million (four-day), swinging well past my $17.5M and $22M estimates. While Warner Bros. can take solace in its bigger than anticipated debut, its $180M budget still leaves in question its eventual profitability or, most importantly, hopes for a franchise. The weekends ahead and overseas earnings may determine whether Tarzan and Jane come back for a repeat engagement.
Audiences showed they’re still into one particular horror franchise as The Purge: Election Year opened with $31.5 million (3 day) and $36.1 million (4 day) – ahead of my $21.7M and $25.5M forecast. While it will almost certainly suffer a hefty decline in weekend #2, the series is a cash cow for Universal and I would expect a fourth purge to be coming your way soon.
While both of the aforementioned newcomers over performed, the same cannot be said of Steven Spielberg’s The BFG. Despite mostly positive reviews, grosses were not big or friendly as this giant disappointment made $18.7 million (3 day) and $22.7 million (4 day) out of the gate. This is under my $26.6M and $33.2M projections.
Independence Day: Resurgence rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame and did not experience a bump due to its namesake holiday weekend. The sequel continued to disappoint with $16.7 million (3 day) and $21.6 million (4 day), just under my $17.8M and $22.8M projections for a ten-day total of just $77 million.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
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