Box Office Predictions: April 10-12

Only one newcomer is going against the second weekend of Furious 7 as the romantic drama The Longest Ride debuts, based on the Nicholas Sparks bestseller. You can find my detailed prediction post on it right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/04/the-longest-ride-box-office-prediction/

I will readily admit that Ride has the potential to open bigger than my prediction. My estimate comes from the belief it will barely outdo the last Sparks adaptation, The Best of Me, which underwhelmed in its performance last year. Still, it could also serve as shrewd counter programming to Furious 7. As predicted, however, I have it landing in third.

There is no doubt that Furious will easily repeat at #1 after its massive and record setting debut this past weekend (more on that below). It’s sure to suffer a healthy decline in weekend #2, but little else could be expected after opening so big.

I have the animated Home remaining #2, though it could find itself in a close race with Ride. As for the rest of the top five, I have Cinderella remaining in fourth, as it should suffer a smaller decline than Get Hard.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $56.5 million (representing a drop of 61%)

2. Home

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. The Longest Ride

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

4. Cinderella

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Get Hard

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (April 3-5)

The seventh edition of the Fast and Furious franchise raced into the history books with the heftiest April opening in box office history with an astounding $147.1 million, speeding beyond my $117.4M prediction. That is good for the ninth largest premiere of all time. The series has been on an incredible hot streak lately. Paul Walker’s final screen appearance also may have added a curiosity factor for some.

Dropping to second was Home in weekend #2 with $27 million, a bit below my $29.3M estimate. The Dreamworks animated tale has done well so far with $95 million in the bank.

The critically panned Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy suffered a big drop in its sophomore frame with $13.1 million, under my $15.4M prediction. It’s earned $57 million and is highly unlikely to reach the century mark.

Cinderella was fourth with $10.1 million, on target with my $9.8M projection. The Disney live-action adaptation stands at $167M. Insurgent was fifth as it also grossed $10.1 million (just under my $10.9M prediction). Its three-week total is at $103M and it will surely gross less than its predecessor Divergent. 

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…