The thriller The Loft, out Friday, may be the definition of a January dumping ground picture. Both Warner Bros and Universal chose against distributing it. The low budget murder mystery was filmed three and a half years ago and collected dust on the shelf and the marketing campaign has been lackluster.
Even though it features recognizable faces like Karl Urban, James Marsden, Prison Break’s Wentworth Miller and Modern Family’s Eric Stonestreet, it’s almost surprising the eventual distributor Open Road didn’t choose to go the direct to VOD route. I don’t see much room for The Loft to gain much traction this weekend.
Paramount Pictures and MTV Films are hoping to squeeze more mileage of the found footage genre with Project Almanac, out Friday. The pic stars a cast of unknowns and centers around the discovery of a time machine.
Shot for a meager reported budget of $12 million, the studios are wishing for a similar result to what Chronicle did three years ago around the same time frame. That found footage release managed a terrific $22 million out of the gate. I’m not as confident that Almanac will generate the same heat. Yet I will predict it grosses mid to high teens, which should be solid enough for a #2 showing behind the American Sniper juggernaut. In doing so, it would easily make its budget back in one weekend.
Project Almanac opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million
Your capacity to enjoy Lucy may deal with your willingness on what to do with your brain capacity while viewing it. It’s a ludicrous concoction of science fiction and action that nonetheless provides yet another showcase for Scarlett Johannson’s talents. And another for Luc Besson, known more lately for his involvement in the Taken franchise than his earlier work. That previous work included 1997’s The Fifth Element which I count among my favorite guilty pleasure flicks of the last two decades. Thankfully Lucy contains a similar spirit. It isn’t every picture that manages to weave familiar shoot em ups with Asian gangsters and a scene with a dinosaur. If that doesn’t sound like your cup of tea, leave this alone. If you appreciated that bizarre giant blue alien creature singing opera mixed with techno in the aforementioned Fifth Element, Lucy has that kinda vibe from time to time.
The title character is played with gusto by Johannson. When we first are introduced to her, she’s a college student in Taiwan who’s tricked into making a drug delivery to a dastardly man known as Mr. Jang (Choi Min-Sik). Turns out it’s not your regular narcotics drop when she’s knocked out and a mysterious substance makes its way into her stomach. The synthetic drug know as CPH4 soon gives her capabilities not thought humanly possible and she begins accessing portions of her brain in a…. shall we say limitless fashion? 10%. 50%. 99%. We know because flash cards show us where we are at in Lucy’s cerebral uptick clock while the bad guys try to chase her down.
Oh… And there’s Morgan Freeman as a professor who kinda knows about this stuff. Clearly he’s cast because what student wouldn’t wanna listen to him drone on about scientific gobbledygook all day? My theory is Lucy could have picked lots of people to partner with, but her extreme intelligence led her to the best voice.
Interestingly, Besson’s take is that the more smart you become – the less empathetic you are. When her brain function is just beginning to increase, she cares enough to make what she believes to be her last call to her parents and provide medical assistance to her unhealthy roommate. Soon though, her actions lead to massive car pileups and rows of innocent dead people that she couldn’t seem to give a flip about. I suppose if it weren’t that way, we wouldn’t get the violent scenes we need every few minutes.
Lucy clips along at a quick runtime of an hour and a half. Nothing about the gunplay (which has an occasional Matrix-y vibe) brings much new to the table. What causes this to be worthwhile in my eyes is the vibrant central performance and Besson’s devil may care, throw in the kitchen sink and dinosaur sighting attitude that I missed. He knows this premise is as silly as The Fifth Element before it. Somehow he’s able to make it fun.
Three new movies take on the daunting task of attempting to unseat the box office juggernaut that is American Sniper. They are the Jennifer Lopez thriller The Boy Next Door, Johnny Depp comedy Mortdecai, and George Lucas produced 3D animated pic Strange Magic. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:
We’ll cut right to the chase here: not a one of them has a chance of taking on Sniper. I look for Lopez’s flick to appeal to a female audience and generate the best debut among the newbies that should be good enough for a #2 opening. As for Magic and Mortdecai, neither look to make much of a dent.
As mentioned, the jaw dropping opening of American Sniper should mean it easily retains its top spot. Both Paddington and The Wedding Ringer premiered solidly and I look for them to be right behind Door in their second weekends. If either Magic or Mortdecai fail to perform even up to my meager expectations, it could mean Taken 3 remains in the top six as it should gross around $7 million in its third weekend.
And with that, estimates for this weekend’s Top 6:
1. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $50.4 million (representing a drop of 43%)
2. The Boy Next Door
Predicted Gross: $14.7 million
3. Paddington
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)
4. The Wedding Ringer
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Strange Magic
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
6. Mortdecai
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
Box Office Results (January 16-18)
This weekend, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper became a cultural phenomenon. No one saw a gross this huge coming as it performed similar to what a superhero summer tent pole would earn. It took in $89.2 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend (I predicted less than half of that at $40.6M). For the long MLK weekend, it made $107 million. Unreal. Clearly the combination of critical acclaim, Oscar nominations, and highly effective trailers and TV spots did the job.
The Kevin Hart comedy The Wedding Ringer had a sturdy second place opening at $20.6 million, however it was below my $29.4M estimate. Over the four-day it made $24 million.
The children’s bear tale Paddington took in $18.9 million from Friday to Sunday, under my $22.3M projection. The well-reviewed pic amassed a pleasing $25.4M over the four day portion of the weekend.
Taken 3 dipped to fourth in its sophomore frame with $14.7 million, under my $17.1M prediction. The action sequel stands at $65 million at press time.
Selma was fifth in its second weekend in release with $8.7 million – not matching my generous $12.5M estimate. I thought the MLK holiday might assist a little more in bumping its grosses, though it’s worth noting that yesterday’s holiday gave the pic its largest single day during its run. It’s earned $31M so far.
Finally… Blackhat. Oh boy. The Michael Mann directed thriller with Chris Hemsworth bombed placing 10th with a pathetic $3.9 million. I predicted $13.6M. Oops. The heavy competition, weak reviews, and middling marketing campaign sunk this project, which reportedly cost $70M. Blackhat easily qualifies as the first enormous failure of 2015.
In case you didn’t notice, everything but Sniper grossed less than I figured. It’s no accident. Sniper unquestionably had an effect on the viability of the other releases and Sniper‘s debut will definitely rank as one of the box office top stories of this year.
Martin Sixsmith (Steve Coogan) is a former journalist turned British government official who’s recently lost his job in disgrace. His preference would be to concentrate on writing a book about Russian history to fill his time, but a human interest story comes his way. He disdains the idea of that type of journalism but even his cynical nature is trumped by a realization. As human interest stories go, this is a fascinating one. Plus no one seems to be clamoring for his ruminations about Lenin and Brezhnev.
Philomena Lee (Judi Dench) is still haunted by the events surrounding her separation from her son fifty years ago. After becoming pregnant at age 18 and giving birth to Anthony, she is sent to an Irish convent. She is forced to work long hours in the laundromat with access to her offspring for one hour per day. Anthony is soon put up for adoption without Philomena’s consent. On what is Anthony’s 50th birthday, his long lost mother takes further steps to find him by enlisting Martin.
This eventually leads to what becomes a road trip drama with heavy comedic undertones. The mix of slightly snooty Martin with Philomena provides humorous results. She seems often incapable of understanding sarcasm which Martin excels in. They are also polar opposites on the faith scale with the title character having never lost it. The same cannot be said for her traveling companion.
Washington D.C. becomes their landing spot where surprising revelations (surprising to some) about Anthony come out. The lighthearted nature of the proceedings continue with heavy drama interrupting it. Philomena is torn between a visit to the Lincoln Memorial and watching the Martin Lawrence pic Big Momma’s House on the hotel movie service. And there’s amazement on her part about free breakfasts and drinks on airplanes.
While we are dealing with a true story here, writers Coogan and Jeff Pope (adapting Martin’s book) could’ve spent a bit less time exploring Philomena’s personality quirks. It’s good for some laughs, but it’s also highly familiar stuff. What works best is when Philomena, both the character and the film, stay in the dramatic lane. By the time all is revealed about the backstory on why she never could find her son, the pic delivers serious emotional material that is effective. It’s just an uneven process getting there.
Judi Dench and Steve Coogan make a solid team. We’ve come to expect greatness from Dame Judi and she is terrific here. Yet Coogan is impressive as well as he veers away from his usual type of material. They alone are reason enough to recommend Philomena and its manageability to get at our heartstrings after awhile is another.
Silence and noise. Both are used in tremendously effective and emotional ways in Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper. The noise of war which we’ve heard again and again in movies. Yet the silence of it too. The quiet thoughts and solemnity of its central character with his finger on the trigger having to make snap judgments most of us couldn’t fathom. The noise of everyday life and your children playing and wife speaking to you. Yet those noises are silenced by other noises. The sound of war whose echoes never fully leave the mind of Chris Kyle.
American Sniper is the true life tale of the Navy Seal credited with having the most kills in our 21st century Middle East conflict. Bradley Cooper is Chris, who was raised with a sense of duty with an emphasis on protecting others. When the United States comes under attack, Chris’s protective instincts find their calling. He eventually does four tours overseas and becomes a near mythic figure for his abilities behind a rifle.
His incredible talents in his military life trump his capacity to manage a family life. In between tours, he has trouble adjusting to normal life with his wife Taya (Sienna Miller) and his kids. Chris is distant. His mind is with his fellow soldiers. Even after saving so many of them, Chris doesn’t think in those terms. When he’s back in Texas, there is the fact that Chris can’t save them. Going home to him does not hold the same meaning it would to many. Home is on top of a roof in Iraq watching over his men.
The picture has an understated tone that we’ve come to anticipate from director Eastwood. One looking for deep political overtones won’t find them. While we may know Clint’s politics, they’re not on display here. This is a character study and its matter of factness extends to the war scenes. The decisions Chris must face include whether to kill women and children. There are times here when it’s almost too intense to watch, but it’s a necessity to understand Chris’s psyche.
Bradley Cooper is a revelation here. First known as a comedic actor, this and Silver Linings Playbook especially have shown him to be one of the most powerful dramatic actors on screen. His physical transformation and southern accent are remarkable, but it wouldn’t mean much without his emotional wallop of an acting job. There are subtleties in his take on Chris and his responses to those praising his legendary prowess on the battlefield that are moving and sometimes devastating. As is his realization that his time in foreign countries should end.
Military service and dedication to his comrades doesn’t end with active duty for Chris. His final act in this world involves helping another soldier. It ends in a horrifically tragic way. Chris wouldn’t have had it any other way. Helping other soldiers is what he does and is his duty.
There’s a segment in Gone Girl where the bizarre relationship between Rosamund Pike and Neil Patrick Harris comes to a rather memorable end. This sequence contains a mix of sex and violence that would’ve made Alfred Hitchcock proud. It’s the kind of scene that the master director probably would’ve loved to film had the time he was making movies allowed it.
This is why, for the first time, a remake of a Hitchcock classic actually doesn’t sound like a bad idea. It was announced this week that Gone Girl’s director – the brilliant David Fincher – will helm a remake of Strangers on a Train, Hitch’s 1951 effort. The screenwriter is Gillian Flynn, who of course wrote the Gone Girl book and its screenplay. Ben Affleck will star.
If there’s anyone out there who could pull off the daunting task of remaking Hitchcock, it’s Fincher. Having said that, the last time an Oscar nominated auteur attempted the same feat… well, it failed miserably.
Gus Van Sant, who was fresh off Oscar attention for Good Will Hunting, made the infamously terrible decision to do a shot for shot remake of Hitchcock’s Psycho. Audiences and critics alike didn’t understand why and it struggled at the box office.
Psycho was released in 1998, as were two other Hitch remakes that also made little impression. A Perfect Murder took on 1954’s Dial M for Murder and starred Michael Douglas and Gwyneth Paltrow. It did better financially than Psycho but couldn’t hold a candle to its source material.
On the television front, Christopher Reeve appeared in one of his final roles headlining a rehash of Rear Window. While Reeve received positive notices, the picture itself didn’t.
Indeed the director who’s probably had the greatest success remaking Alfred Hitchcock is Alfred Hitchcock. In 1956, he released The Man Who Knew Too Much with James Stewart and Doris Day to solid box office results. 22 years earlier in England was his even more acclaimed original with Peter Lorre.
I’ll say this: Gone Girl is a movie that Hitchcock probably would have found highly enjoyable. The fact that its team is now involved in a direct homage to the filmmaker is certainly going to be interesting to watch.
He may not be involved in 2015’s most anticipated film that carries on the franchise he started, but George Lucas is credited with coming up with the story for Strange Magic, out Friday. The 3D animated musical fantasy comes from LucasFilm and features the voices of Alan Cumming, Evan Rachel Wood, Kristen Chenoweth (who also appears in this weekend’s The Boy Next Door), Maya Rudolph, and Alfred Molina.
Competition for family audiences is there with the well performing Paddington entering its sophomore frame. The marketing campaign for Strange Magic has been rather quiet and it doesn’t help that the story isn’t based on a well known property. Nor does it have the trusted Disney or Pixar moniker.
All that considered, I’ll predict this doesn’t even reach a double digit debut out of the gate.
Strange Magic opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million
In recent years Jennifer Lopez has become known more for American Idol than her once stellar film career. This Friday, she headlines the psychological thriller The Boy Next Door and it could be primed for a healthy opening. Costars include Ryan Guzman, Kristen Chenoweth and John Corbett. Rob Cohen, director of XXX and the original Fast and Furious flick, is behind the camera.
The Boy Next Door could benefit from a decent female audience turnout. Its reported tiny budget of only $4 million virtually assures profitability. Reviews aren’t likely to be on its side, but that shouldn’t matter a whole lot. I envision this performing on a similar scale to The Call, Halle Berry’s thriller which debuted with a higher than expected $17 million nearly two years ago. That means Jenny from the Block could double the grosses of Johnny (Depp) from Mortdecai this weekend.
The Boy Next Door opening weekend prediction: $14.7 million
During this decade, Johnny Depp has seen his share of box office disappointments that include The Tourist, Dark Shadows, The Lone Ranger and Transcendence. This Friday, the comedy Mortdecai will succeed or fail solely on the star’s drawing power. Considering the recent history, it could mean a soft opening.
Depp collaborates for the second time with his Secret Window director David Koepp. The supporting cast is filled with famous faces that include Gwyneth Paltrow, Ewan McGregor, Paul Bettany, Olivia Munn and Aubrey Plaza. Reviews have yet to materialize – usually not a good sign. The trailers and TV spots have been unremarkable at best.
It’s hard for me to envision a scenario where Mortdecai performs well. I believe it will struggle to reach double digits and won’t. Lionsgate is on record saying they’d like to see Mortdecai become a franchise. After next weekend’s opening, that talk should cease and my prediction would mark Depp’s lowest debut since 2011’s The Rum Diary.
Mortdecai opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million
For my prediction on The Boy Next Door, click here:
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