Three new movies take on the daunting task of attempting to unseat the box office juggernaut that is American Sniper. They are the Jennifer Lopez thriller The Boy Next Door, Johnny Depp comedy Mortdecai, and George Lucas produced 3D animated pic Strange Magic. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/the-boy-next-door-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/mortdecai-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/strange-magic-box-office-prediction/
We’ll cut right to the chase here: not a one of them has a chance of taking on Sniper. I look for Lopez’s flick to appeal to a female audience and generate the best debut among the newbies that should be good enough for a #2 opening. As for Magic and Mortdecai, neither look to make much of a dent.
As mentioned, the jaw dropping opening of American Sniper should mean it easily retains its top spot. Both Paddington and The Wedding Ringer premiered solidly and I look for them to be right behind Door in their second weekends. If either Magic or Mortdecai fail to perform even up to my meager expectations, it could mean Taken 3 remains in the top six as it should gross around $7 million in its third weekend.
And with that, estimates for this weekend’s Top 6:
1. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $50.4 million (representing a drop of 43%)
2. The Boy Next Door
Predicted Gross: $14.7 million
3. Paddington
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)
4. The Wedding Ringer
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Strange Magic
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
6. Mortdecai
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
Box Office Results (January 16-18)
This weekend, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper became a cultural phenomenon. No one saw a gross this huge coming as it performed similar to what a superhero summer tent pole would earn. It took in $89.2 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend (I predicted less than half of that at $40.6M). For the long MLK weekend, it made $107 million. Unreal. Clearly the combination of critical acclaim, Oscar nominations, and highly effective trailers and TV spots did the job.
The Kevin Hart comedy The Wedding Ringer had a sturdy second place opening at $20.6 million, however it was below my $29.4M estimate. Over the four-day it made $24 million.
The children’s bear tale Paddington took in $18.9 million from Friday to Sunday, under my $22.3M projection. The well-reviewed pic amassed a pleasing $25.4M over the four day portion of the weekend.
Taken 3 dipped to fourth in its sophomore frame with $14.7 million, under my $17.1M prediction. The action sequel stands at $65 million at press time.
Selma was fifth in its second weekend in release with $8.7 million – not matching my generous $12.5M estimate. I thought the MLK holiday might assist a little more in bumping its grosses, though it’s worth noting that yesterday’s holiday gave the pic its largest single day during its run. It’s earned $31M so far.
Finally… Blackhat. Oh boy. The Michael Mann directed thriller with Chris Hemsworth bombed placing 10th with a pathetic $3.9 million. I predicted $13.6M. Oops. The heavy competition, weak reviews, and middling marketing campaign sunk this project, which reportedly cost $70M. Blackhat easily qualifies as the first enormous failure of 2015.
In case you didn’t notice, everything but Sniper grossed less than I figured. It’s no accident. Sniper unquestionably had an effect on the viability of the other releases and Sniper‘s debut will definitely rank as one of the box office top stories of this year.
And there you have it! Until next time….
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