2014: The Year of Scarlett Johannson

Scarlett Johannson has been on quite a roll lately with her mix of mega blockbusters and critical indie darlings. It manifested itself best in 2014 and “Scar Jo” had quite the banner year. She is indeed deserving of my third post focusing on six performers who had a merry 2014!

April 2014 gave us a prime example of her deft mix of films both large and small. Johannson made her third appearance as Black Widow (after 2010’s Iron Man 2 and 2012’s The Avengers) in Captain America: The Winter Soldier. Everyone expected it to be a blockbuster, which it exceeded expectations on the critical and financial level (topping out at $259 million domestic).

That same month she starred in Under the Skin, Jonathan Glazer’s hypnotic indie pic that cast her as an alien learning what Earth is all about. Her performance contained little dialogue, yet it may be her strongest work yet.

Her work in acclaimed indie fare continued into May with her supporting part in Chef, Jon Favreau’s unexpected hit that earned $31 million domestically.

By July, she may have had her most impressive showing when she headlined the action pic Lucy. It earned a robust $126 million and much of it was due to her star power alone in shoot-em-up genre pics.

Scar Jo’s dalliances between popcorn flicks and indie hits looks to continue beyond this year. In May, she’ll make her fourth Black Widow turn in The Avengers: Age of Ultron before working with the Coen Brothers (alongside George Clooney and Channing Tatum) in Hail Caesar!

For my post on The Year of Shailene Woodley, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-shailene-woodley/

For my post on The Year of Kevin Hart, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-kevin-hart/

For my post on The Year of Chris Pratt, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-chris-pratt/

For my post on The Year of Angelina Jolie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-angelina-jolie/

For my post on The Year of Michael Keaton, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-michael-keaton/

2014: The Year of Kevin Hart

Continuing with my series of performers who had a big impact on film this year, part two of six brings us to Kevin Hart.

Not only is he one of the highest grossing stand-up comics around, this year proved he can truly headline at the multiplex as well. The biggest example came in January with the surprise hit buddy cop comedy Ride Along with Ice Cube. The pic amassed a fantastic $134 million gross and was #1 for four weeks. A sequel is already planned for January 2016.

February brought his supporting role in About Last Night which earned a respectable $48 million. In June came his sequel Think Like a Man Too, which topped out at $65 million (less than its predecessor, but still solid considering its $24M budget).

More than anything though, Ride Along made Hart a hot commodity and 2015 should keep the momentum going. January sees the premiere of The Wedding Ringer and in March, he teams up with Will Ferrell in Get Hard.

For my post on The Year of Shailene Woodley, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-shailene-woodley/

For my post on The Year of Scarlett Johannson, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-scarlett-johannson/

For my post on The Year of Chris Pratt, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-chris-pratt/

For my post on The Year of Angelina Jolie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-angelina-jolie/

For my post on The Year of Michael Keaton, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-michael-keaton/

2014: The Year of Shailene Woodley

Just like I did in 2013, today brings us a series where I feature three actors and three actresses who had a very good year in 2014. To recap in 2013 – my individual honors went to Jennifer Lawrence, Matthew McConaughey, Sandra Bullock, Tom Hanks, Melissa McCarthy, and James Franco.

For 2014 – we have a fresh new crop of performers who had a significant impact at the box office and we begin with Shailene Woodley. Many of us first noticed the actress as George Clooney’s rebellious daughter in 2010’s The Descendants before moving to an acclaimed role in 2013’s The Spectacular Now.

This year broke her out in a massive way. It began with March’s Divergent, which will be the first in a planned series of four pictures (with the second opening this March). Woodley headlined the YA feature which grossed a strong $150 million.

June brought The Fault in Our Stars, based on the bestselling YA novel which earned her rave reviews and went onto gross $124 million. With these two hits in a row, Woodley is successfully carving out an interesting career path that’s not unlike Jennifer Lawrence.

Her Divergent and Spectacular Now costar Miles Teller had a heckuva year himself with that feature plus the lauded indie hit Whiplash.

2014 will definitely go down as the year when Shailene Woodley burst into the mainstream and it looks like she’s here to stay.

For my post on The Year of Kevin Hart, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-kevin-hart/

For my post on The Year of Scarlett Johannson, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-scarlett-johannson/

For my post on The Year of Chris Pratt, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-chris-pratt/

For my post on The Year of Angelina Jolie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-angelina-jolie/

For my post on The Year of Michael Keaton, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-michael-keaton/

Box Office Predictions: December 25-28

Three new releases (not the originally planned four) roll out Christmas Day to compete with holdovers The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, and Annie. They are Disney’s musical fantasy Into the Woods, Angelina Jolie’s adaptation of the bestseller Unbroken, and Mark Wahlberg’s crime drama The Gambler. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of the new entries here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/into-the-woods-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/unbroken-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/22/the-gambler-box-office-prediction/

Of course, there was a fourth movie planned for release called The Interview. If you’re not familiar with happened there, you can turn on cable news or open your Twitter or Facebook feed.

I expect Into the Woods and Unbroken to post similar results for second and third place finishes behind current champ The Hobbit. It is worth noting that some prognosticators have Woods outdoing my estimate and it’s certainly possible.

During the Christmas holiday weekend, it’s not uncommon for some films to gain audience from the previous weekend and I’m predicting modest gains for family fare Museum and Annie.

Wahlberg’s Gambler is likely to settle for a sixth place debut. And with that, my predictions for the Christmas weekend’s top 6:

1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Predicted Gross: $42.4 million (representing a drop of 23%)

2. Into the Woods

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $30.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)

3. Unbroken

Predicted Gross: $20.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $28.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)

4. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing an increase of 10%)

5. Annie

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (representing an increase of 7%)

Box Office Results (December 19-21)

Peter Jackson’s third and final Hobbit pic dominated the box office while not quite reaching the numbers I predicted. Its Wednesday release was a bit more front loaded than I anticipated. It took in $54.7 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend – under my $67.1M estimate. However, its five day take of $89.1 million was on track with my $93.6M forecast. This is a solid start for the end of the franchise and the fact that its second weekend falls on Christmas will help it.

Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb showed that the franchise is seriously running out of steam as it grossed just $17.1 million out of the gate, under my $25.4M estimate. Perhaps the five year wait from the second and third entries was too long as its fans have simply grown up.

The critically reviled Annie had a ho-hum debut with $15.8 million, just under my $17.6M prediction. It should gain some audience for Christmas, but this has to be below what the beleaguered Sony expected.

Exodus: Gods and Kings, as anticipated, fell hard in weekend #2 to $8.1 million, a bit under my $9.7M prognosis. The Ridley Scott epic, which was met with critical scorn, has earned an unimpressive $38M so far.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 rounded out the top five with $7.8 million (on pace with my $8M prediction). Its earned $289M at press time.

Finally, the Reese Witherspoon drama Wild debuted in sixth place with $4.1 million, not matching my $5.8M estimate. Its Oscar buzz (for Reese) could mean slow drop-offs in subsequent weekends.

And that’s all for now, folks! Have a very Merry Christmas!

The Gambler Box Office Prediction

Paramount Pictures goes for a little Christmas counter programming with the crime drama The Gambler, a remake of a 1974 James Caan flick. Rupert Wyatt (who did Rise of the Planet of the Apes) directs with Mark Wahlberg headlining. John Goodman, Jessica Lange, and Brie Larson costar. Reviews have been mostly positive with a current ranking of 65% on Rotten Tomatoes.

The majority of holiday pictures out there are not catering directly to an adult audience (Unbroken is a notable exception) and it could allow The Gambler to post a decent debut. Wahlberg is hit or miss at the box office, however and I’m not sure the marketing campaign has been effective enough to bring older moviegoers out in droves.

It may be a wager that doesn’t quite work for the studio. I believe The Gambler could get somewhat lost in the shuffle among the higher profile releases. It could struggle to reach $15 million over the four day extended holiday frame and I’ll estimate that it will not.

The Gambler opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.2 million (Thursday to Sunday)

For my Into the Woods prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/into-the-woods-box-office-prediction/

For my Unbroken prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/unbroken-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Interview, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/25/the-interview-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Imitation Game, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/24/the-imitation-game-box-office-prediction/

For my Big Eyes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/24/big-eyes-box-office-prediction/

Unbroken Box Office Prediction

At one time, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken was looked at as a potential juggernaut for Oscar season. Based on the 2010 Laura Hillenbrand bestseller focused on the life of Olympic medalist Louis Zamperini during World War II, the picture seemed tailor made for awards attention. Reviews have changed that dynamic drastically. It sits at only 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and has been subject to numerous negative reviews.

Unbroken still has a decent shot at a Best Picture nomination, though a win is out of the question. This will likely alter its box office take when it opens Christmas Day. Starring Jack O’Connell, Domhnall Gleeson, and Miyavi, the film should still be poised for relatively respectable results out of the gate.

The source material is well-known and it could fit the bill for adult moviegoers looking for something this holiday weekend (Into the Woods should do that too). Its performance should actually be quite similar to Woods premiere out of the gate.

Unbroken opening weekend prediction:

$20.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $28.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)

For my Into the Woods prediction, click here: https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/into-the-woods-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Gambler, click here: https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/22/the-gambler-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Interview, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/25/the-interview-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Imitation Game, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/24/the-imitation-game-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Big Eyes, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/24/big-eyes-box-office-prediction/

Into the Woods Box Office Prediction

Walt Disney’s Christmas gift to moviegoers is Into the Woods, the adaptation of Stephen Sondheim’s Broadway smash musical fantasy. From Oscar winning Chicago director Rob Marshall, Woods features an all-star cast that includes Meryl Streep, Johnny Depp, Emily Blunt, Chris Pine, Anna Kendrick, and James Corden.

Woods has been well publicized and should be primed to connect with audiences over the holiday break. Reviews have been mostly strong and it sits at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. There is some Oscar buzz, particularly for Streep in the Supporting Actress race. It’s debuting on approximately 2200 screens which isn’t near the 3000 plus that Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken is scheduled for, so that could slightly hinder its potential out of the gate.

Nevertheless with its strong brand name, Disney marketing, and recognizable stars, Woods should get off to a solid start with Christmas ticket buyers.

Into the Woods box office prediction: $21.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $30.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)

For my Unbroken prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/unbroken-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Gambler, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/22/the-gambler-box-office-prediction/

For my Big Eyes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/24/big-eyes-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Interview, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/25/the-interview-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Imitation Game, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/24/the-imitation-game-box-office-prediction/

A Canceled Interview

This Saturday, one of my blog posts would have been a box office prediction for The Interview, the Seth Rogen/James Franco comedy in which they play journalists tasked by the U.S. government to take out North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

So… that’s not going to happen. You may have heard of this movie in the last 24 hours or so. The recent Sony Pictures cyber attack that’s been garnering headlines all over the world has led to threats against any movie theaters screening the picture, which was scheduled to premiere on Christmas Day.

Sony Pictures made the unprecedented decision to pull The Interview from theaters after several large theater chains chose not to show it, due to safety concerns. I’ll leave it to smarter folks than I to pontificate on all the ramifications here. The best I can do is offer my brief insights.

First thought: we are truly in uncharted waters here. There have been plenty of controversial movies, but we’ve never seen anything like this. Here we have a major studio offering that will likely never see the light of day in major theaters. And it’s mainly due to the fact that a fascist dictator can’t take a joke.

The irony is thick, to say the least. The Interview purportedly deals with the issues of Jong-un’s reign in North Korea, albeit in humorous and low brow comedy fashion. It probably deals with his lack of allowing free speech in that territory.

And yet the actions of these hackers (allegedly stemming from the country he controls) has eliminated the free speech rights that our country was founded upon. It’s hard for me to come up with any other argument than this: the hackers won and they’ve set a precedent that is dangerous.

Threats against this nation are nothing new. Threats against movie theaters that dare to show Seth Rogen and James Franco satirizing North Korea… well, that is a new one. It begs the once ridiculous sounding question: what if a group of cyber terrorists decide they don’t want to see Fifty Shades of Grey in February? What if a dangerous faction somewhere in the world makes claims of action if we go see Star Wars: The Force Awakens a year from now?

Trust me, I’m no expert on security issues. However, I’m rather sure our government and financial centers of institutions are threatened on a very regular basis. We don’t stop going to them. And yes – our movie theaters are our entertainment centers of institution.

I have no idea whether The Interview is any good (early reviews indicate not, but there’s a lot of talent involved). The action taken yesterday guarantees one thing (security and political arguments aside) – the picture will be seen by a lot of folks who might not have intended to watch it originally. The term all publicity is good publicity should apply here. My guess is a VOD or Netflix type premiere will happen relatively soon and it will be massively successful.

The decision that faced the owners of theater chains and Sony Pictures forced them into an incredibly unenviable position. Still, my reaction is similar to many I’ve seen in the media. This just doesn’t feel right. We have a right to free speech in this nation. This covers everything from key political speech to the words written in a screenplay and filmed for a sophomoric Seth Rogen Christmas holiday release. And we should never feel compelled to surrender those rights to those who wish us harm.

Box Office Predictions: December 19-21

It’s a busy pre-Christmas box office weekend as The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, and Annie all make their debuts. Additionally, the Reese Witherspoon drama Wild expands its theater count to approximately 850 screens. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each at the following links:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/13/the-hobbit-the-battle-of-the-five-armies-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/13/night-at-the-museum-secret-of-the-tomb-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/14/annie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/15/wild-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, The Hobbit should easily rule the weekend, however its Wednesday unveiling (unlike its two predecessors) should give it the lowest three day start of the franchise.

I expect Night at the Museum to open lower than its two predecessors, while Annie should see a lackluster beginning. Opening on less than a third of its competitors, Wild should manage a respectable sixth place debut.

As for holdovers, this weekend’s champ Exodus: Gods and Kings underwhelmed out of the gate and its drubbing from critics and moviegoers (a troubling B- Cinemascore) means it should suffer a hefty fall. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 should round out the top five.

With that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Predicted Gross: $67.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $93.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

3. Annie

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

4. Exodus: Gods and Kings

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (representing a drop of 59%)

5. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 37%)

6. Wild

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

Box Office Results (December 12-14)

Its #1 opening was never really in question, but as mentioned above, Ridley Scott’s Exodus: Gods and Kings disappointed with a middling $24.1 million premiere. This is much less than my projected $35.5M. Clearly the negative buzz hindered it and a steep fall (especially with Hobbit competition) seems inevitable.

The Hunger Games three-quel slipped to second with $12.6 million, a bit higher than my $11.4M prediction. It stands at $276M in four weeks and while that’s nothing to sneeze at, it will be the lowest domestic earner of the franchise to date.

Penguins of Madagascar continued its unimpressive run with $7.2 million, in line with my $6.9M estimate. Its total is at $58M.

The acclaimed Chris Rock comedy Top Five debuted fourth with $6.8 million, well under my generous $11.6M prediction. While I certainly gave it too much credit, this is a fairly solid haul for a picture than opened on less than 1000 screens.

Disney’s hit Big Hero 6 was fifth with $6 million (I predicted $5.4M). It’s grossed $185M to date.

And that’s all for now, my friends! Until next time…

Wild Box Office Prediction

It’s not just hobbits, capuchin monkeys, and Annie remakes opening this weekend as Jean-Marc Vallee’s critically approved Wild debuts in semi-wide format on Friday. Premiering on approximately 850 screens (less than a third of the other big three releases), Wild has Oscar buzz and an Oscar winning star in the mix.

Reese Witherspoon stars in the true life tale of a woman who hikes the Pacific Coast Trail in search of life answers. Witherspoon is likely a shoo-in for a Best Actress nomination, though a win could be tough to come by against formidable competition including Julianne Moore (Still Alice) and Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl). Laura Dern is also being mentioned as a potential Supporting Actress nominee. Director Vallee knows a thing or two about directing his performers to Academy Award glory. Last year, he made Dallas Buyers Club, which earned both Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto wins.

The film is receiving positive reviews and it stands at an impressive 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. Obviously its limited rollout will hinder its potential this weekend, but I believe its per-screen average will be enough to earn it a #6 debut.

Wild opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million