The Halloween weekend is shaping up to be a tepid yet unpredictable one at the box office. There are three new entries: the Jake Gyllenhall crime pic Nightcrawler, Nicole Kidman/Colin Firth thriller Before I Go to Sleep, and the 10th anniversary re-release of Saw. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/nightcrawler-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/before-i-go-to-sleep-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/saw-10th-anniversary-box-office-prediction/
None of these newbies is expected to scare up much business. Added to the misery: all holdovers should dip below double digits, assuming current champ Ouija suffers the typical horror flick big drop. That means that my estimates reflect the #1 movie for this weekend will fail to reach past $10M for the first time since September 2012 when horror pic The Possession managed to open first with just over $9 million. Simply put, this is a dull weekend at the multiplex until November heavy hitters Interstellar, Big Hero 6, Dumb and Dumber To, and Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 open.
Depending on what happens, it could be a free for all for the #1 position as the difference between my #1 and #6 are a mere $1.7M apart. For this weekend, I’ll do a rare top ten predictions and we’ll see how it all shakes out:
1. Ouija
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 56%)
2. Nightcrawler
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
3. Fury
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)
4. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. John Wick
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)
6. The Book of Life
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 38%)
7. St. Vincent
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)
8. Alexander and the Horrible, Terrible, No Good, Very Bad Day
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million (representing a drop of 38%)
9. Saw 10th Anniversary
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
10. Before I Go to Sleep
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
Box Office Results (October 24-26)
As expected, the pre-Halloween weekend allowed critically reviled Ouija took open #1 with $19.8 million, under my $24.9M projection. With a tiny budget, however, this will reap a nice cash flow for its studio.
Keanu Reeves saw a better than expected opening for his critically acclaimed actioner John Wick, which debuted second with $14.4 million (above my $11M estimate). The lackluster Cinemascore grade of B, though, portends it probably will fade rather quickly.
Brad Pitt’s Fury dropped to third with $13.3 million in weekend two, under my $14.8M estimate. It’s earned $46M in 10 days.
Gone Girl was fourth in its fourth weekend with $11 million, in line with my $11.6M projection. The hit has earned $124M so far.
The animated feature The Book of Life was fifth in its sophomore frame with $10 million, just below my $11.3M prediction. It’s two week total stands at $30M.
Finally, Bill Murray’s St. Vincent expanded nationwide and took in a respectable $7.7 million, not matching my $8.6M estimate.
That’s all for now!
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