The fall movie season officially kicks off this Labor Day weekend with two new entries: the horror flick As Above, So Below and Pierce Brosnan spy thriller The November Man. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/24/as-above-so-below-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/24/the-november-man-box-office-prediction/
As you can see, I’m predicting neither of the newbies will add much firepower to the box office. That leaves August’s megahits Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles likely to continue their reign at the top two positions. Keep in mind that my weekend projections this time around are for the four day holiday weekend and that means holdover pics often see an increase in dollars compared to the previous weekend. That holds true with my estimates for Guardians, TMNT, If I Stay, When the Game Stands Tall, and Let’s Be Cops.
And with that – we’ll do Top Seven predictions for the Labor Day frame:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $21.1 million (representing an increase of 23%)
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Predicted Gross: $19.3 million (representing an increase of 16%)
3. If I Stay
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million (representing an increase of 11%)
4. As Above, So Below
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
5. Let’s Be Cops
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing an increase of 6%)
6. When the Game Stands Tall
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing an increase of 19%)
7. The November Man
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Monday projection), $11 million (Wednesday to Monday projection)
Box Office Results (August 22-24)
As the summer movie season drew to a close, there were two big stories: Guardians of the Galaxy became the season’s biggest grosser and Sin City: A Dame to Kill For had one of the worst debuts in recent memory.
Marvel’s Guardians vaulted back to the #1 spot after two weeks behind Ninja Turtles. The blockbuster took in $17.2 million, outshining my $15M estimate. It’s taken in $251 million so far and therefore passed Transformers: Age of Extinction as the King of Summer Movies.
Ninja Turtles slipped to second with $16.7 million, holding up considerably better than my $12.7M prediction. In three weeks, the reboot has amassed $145 million and it should surpass $175M when all is said and done.
The YA pic If I Stay got off to a decent start with $15.6 million – ahead of my $12.1M projection. Many prognosticators had it opening #1, but two teams of venerable superheroes prevented that from happening.
Somewhat surprisingly, Let’s Be Cops only dropped a respectable 39% in its sophomore frame and placed fourth with $10.8 million. I incorrectly didn’t place it in the top five and its two week total stands at $45M. It should reach $75M, which is great considering its meager budget.
The sports drama When the Game Stands Tall earned $8.3 million for a fair fifth place opening, right in range with my $9M projection. With a solid A- Cinemascore grade, it should hold up well next weekend.
And this brings us to Sin City: A Dame to Kill For. Let’s get this out of the way: I had it opening #1 with $20.8 million. Ummm…. oops!
Arriving nearly ten years after the original, Dame performed a fantastically bad box office belly flop with only $6.3 million for a pathetic eighth place debut. Simply put, even though the first was generally well-received, its sequel registered barely any audience interest. Dame easily qualifies as one of 2014’s biggest bombs.
And that’s all for now, folks!
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