This Friday, four new titles will try to knock massive hit Guardians of the Galaxy from its perch atop the box office. They are the franchise reboot of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, found footage disaster flick Into the Storm, the Helen Mirren led comedic drama The Hundred-Foot Journey, and dance competition sequel Step Up: All In. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/into-the-storm-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/the-hundred-foot-journey-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/03/step-up-all-in-box-office-prediction/
The only newbie with a fair shot of challenging Guardians would seem to be Turtles. However, I am going on the low end of expectations for it. Some have it grossing above $30 million and even closer to $40M, but I believe excitement isn’t quite that high and a robust second weekend for Guardians may hurt it.
Into the Storm looks like a relative flop to me, though some have it outpacing my estimate. The Hundred-Foot Journey should barely top double digits while diminishing results for each successive Step Up flick could hurt All In.
As for holdovers, Guardians got off to a truly spectacular start (more on that below). It will likely fall in the same range as other Marvel hits in their sophomore weekends. In its third weekend, Luc Besson’s Lucy should continue to lose over half its audience. The James Brown biopic Get On Up got off to a disappointing start, but with its A Cinemascore grade, I see it having the smallest decline in its second weekend.
And with that – we’ll do a Top Seven for my projections this weekend:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $42.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Predicted Gross: $28.2 million
3. Into the Storm
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
4. The Hundred-Foot Journey
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million
5. Get On Up
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 34%)
6. Step Up: All In
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
7. Lucy
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)
Box Office Results (August 1-3)
As previously mentioned, Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy got off to an astonishingly terrific run with $94.3 million. The very well-reviewed pic boasted the third highest opening of 2014, behind Transformers: Age of Extinction and Captain America: The Winter Soldier. It opened nearly $20M above my $74.6M prediction. Guardians may well be in a position to eventually become the summer’s largest grosser. Simply put, the Marvel gravy train keeps chugging along…
Lucy dropped to second with $18.2 million in its sophomore weekend, above my $16.6M projection. The Scarlett Johannson actioner has taken in $79M so far and should certainly top $100M domestically.
Get On Up had a lackluster premiere with $13.5 million, way below my $24.9M estimate. It received solid reviews, especially for star Chadwick Boseman, yet it failed to bring in its intended adult audience.
Hercules dropped to fourth in weekend #2 with $11 million, below my $13M prediction. The Rock’s flick has earned $52 million and should top out around $75M.
In fifth was Dawn of the Planet of the Apes in its fourth weekend with $8.6 million, on target with my $8.5M estimate. Dawn has made $189M and should get to around $215M overall.
And that’s all for now, friends!
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