Box Office Predictions: June 6-8

The June box office kicks off Friday with The Fault in Our Stars, the adaptation of John Green’s huge bestselling YA novel and the Tom Cruise sci-fi thriller Edge of Tomorrow. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/the-fault-in-our-stars-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/edge-of-tomorrow-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m predicting big things for Fault and less than stellar results for Tomorrow. Truth be told, my estimates seem a bit higher than some on Fault and lower than others on Tomorrow. We shall see how it plays out and there’s the factor of Maleficent‘s second weekend. If my predictions don’t pan out, we could see a very real race between all three for the #1 spot, even though I’m saying it won’t happen.

The rest of the top five should be rounded out by holdovers X-Men: Days of Future Past and box office dud A Million Ways to Die in the West.

Here’s how I think it’ll play out:

1. The Fault in Our Stars

Predicted Gross: $43.1 million

2. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $34 million (representing a drop of 51%)

3. Edge of Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million

4. X-Men: Days of Future Past

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. A Million Ways to Die in the West

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Box Office Results (May 30-June 1)

Disney got Maleficent off to a rock solid start with Maleficent, which grossed $69.4 million in its debut – just ahead of my $66.2M projection. This marked the highest live-action opening ever for star Angelina Jolie.

In second was X-Men: Days of Future Past, which dropped further than I anticipated in weekend #2 with $32.5 million compared to my $37.1M estimate. While it’s doing well, Future will not reach the level of the highest grosser in the franchise The Last Stand from 2006.

The news was not good for Seth MacFarlane as his A Million Ways to Die in the West tanked with $16.7 million – less than half of my generous $33.6M prediction. Negative reviews likely contributed to the disastrous opening and West‘s entire domestic take should be less than what MacFarlane’s Ted made in its first weekend. Ouch.

Holdovers populated the remainder of top five with Godzilla in fourth at $12 million (below my $14.2M estimate) and Blended in fifth with $8.1 million (below my $9.6M projection).

That’s all for now friends!