Alice Through the Looking Glass Box Office Prediction

Nowadays, moviegoers are accustomed to a yearly live-action remake of a Disney classic in the form of your Malificent‘s, Cinderella‘s, and Jungle Book‘s. Yet it was six years ago that the ball really got rolling when Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland opened to a fantastic $116 million on its way to a $334 million domestic haul.

Now the Disney machine (who’s been having a banner 2016) has produced the sequel Alice Through the Looking Glass and it brings back Johnny Depp as The Mad Hatter, Mia Wasikowska as the title character, Anne Hathaway as The White Queen, and Helena Bonham Carter as The Red Queen. Sacha Baron Cohen and Rhys Ifans join the party. Tim Burton opted not to return to directorial duties (he executive produces) and James Bobin, who made the Muppets reboot, fills that role.

Competition over Memorial Day weekend is considerable with X-Men: Apocalypse also debuting. The biggest hurdle Alice faces could be the six-year gap that it took to produce this follow-up. The original didn’t receive very positive reviews and the story for Looking Glass is even worse with a current 27% Rotten Tomatoes score. I could actually see this performing closely to what another long gestating sequel accomplished over Memorial Day 2012 when Men in Black 3 earned $54 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $69 million for the four-day holiday frame.

Alice Through the Looking Glass opening weekend prediction: $53.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $67.7 million (Friday to Monday)

For my X-Men Apocalypse prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/18/x-men-apocalypse-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: The Jungle Book

Disney has been on a binge remaking their animated classics as of late with 2014’s Maleficent and 2015’s Cinderella. Both were huge hits. This looks to extend to 2016 when Jon Favreau’s The Jungle Book opens Friday.

That this remake of the 1967 animated tale and Rudyard Kipling’s written works is headed for box office domination isn’t so surprising. What is a bit surprising is the rapturous critical reaction Jungle has garnered. It sits at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time.

This begs the question: could The Jungle Book swing its way into the hearts of Oscar voters? It’s only April, but the overall gushing reaction can’t hurt. Obviously we’re early in the Academy season to say the least. And truth be told, Book probably won’t find itself among the five to ten pics recognized.

Where might it get more attention for a gold statue nod? Well, critics have been over the moon on its visual effects. While plenty more summer blockbusters and some fall releases will be strong contenders in that race, early Jungle notices could make it hard to ignore.

The Jungle Book Box Office Prediction

For the past month, Disney’s mega-hit Zootopia has cornered the family market and stampeded to a current gross of over $275 million. The next kiddie friendly blockbuster looks to be the studio’s own The Jungle Book, which swings into theaters next weekend.

From Iron Man director Jon Favreau, this animal tale remakes Disney’s 1967 animated pic based on Rudyard Kipling’s celebrated works. It also continues their recent trend (Maleficent, Cinderella) of live action remaking titles from their storied past. Book casts newcomer Neel Sethi as young Mowgli with lots of familiar faces voicing the creatures. That list includes Bill Murray, Ben Kingsley, Idris Elba, Scarlett Johansson, and Lupita N’Yongo.

As I see it, The Jungle Book appears primed for a terrific opening in range with the aforementioned Mouse Factory products. 2014’s Maleficent debuted to $69 million. Last year’s Cinderella premiered with $67 million. Their respective domestic hauls were $241M and $201M. Interestingly, just today, Warner Bros own Jungle Book remake (directed by Andy Serkis) has been pushed from 2017 to 2018.

Boasting a current 100% Rotten Tomatoes score should only further positive word of mouth. I believe this could potentially top the remakes that came before it and exceed $70 million.

The Jungle Book opening weekend prediction: $74.6 million

For my Barbershop: The Next Cut prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/06/barbershop-the-next-cut-box-office-prediction/

For my Criminal prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/06/criminal-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Zootopia and Sausage Party

Two wildly different 2016 animated features could both find themselves in the Best Animated Feature category come Oscar time next year.

The first is Disney’s Zootopia, which has ruled the box office kingdom for the last two weeks and looks to reach an eventual gross of $275-$300 million domestically. With a fantastic 99% Rotten Tomatoes score and bragging rights for being the biggest opener of all time for a traditionally animated tale, there is little doubt it will be among the five nominees. It could even win, though its biggest competitor might be Disney/Pixar’s Finding Nemo sequel Finding Dory, which is out this summer.

Our second possibility is Sausage Party, which screened in a rough cut at the South by Southwest Festival last night. Billed as the first hard R rated CG flick, Party comes from the minds of Seth Rogen and his writing/producing partner Evan Goldberg. In addition to Mr. Rogen, featured voices include Kristin Wiig, Jonah Hill, Michael Cera, James Franco, Danny McBride, Craig Robinson, Edward Norton, and Salma Hayek. It’s not out until August, but word of mouth from the festival is strong and this looks to be a potential sleeper hit come summer. This isn’t your typical animated material that the Academy would recognize, but it might be tough for them to ignore.

We’ll see how this race plays out as more competition is released in the coming months, but we may already have a couple of major possibilities in the mix.

Zootopia Box Office Prediction

Disney looks to end the box office domination of Deadpool next weekend with Zootopia, the studio’s 55th animated feature. It’s quite likely to succeed. The animal tale features the voices of Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Idris Elba, J.K. Simmons, and Shakira.

The pic has amassed positive reviews (currently 100% on Rotten Tomatoes) and it’s already done brisk business in overseas markets. Zootopia arrives just four months after a rare animated disappointment for The Mouse Factory – November’s The Good Dinosaur, which took in a much less than expected $121 million domestically.

That said, with a dearth of family fare out there, I expect this to improve on Dinosaur‘s numbers. An opening in the mid 50s seems most plausible.

Zootopia opening weekend prediction: $54.4 million

For my London Has Fallen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/london-has-fallen-box-office-prediction/

For my Whiskey Tango Foxtrot prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/whiskey-tango-foxtrot-box-office-prediction/

For my The Other Side of the Door prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/the-other-side-of-the-door-box-office-prediction/

The Good Dinosaur Box Office Prediction

Pixar usually isn’t in the business of releasing two titles a year, but they are in 2015 as The Good Dinosaur opens Wednesday for the long Thanksgiving weekend. Indeed this is the first time the Disney owned franchise has put out a double feature in one year and this summer’s Inside Out was the studio’s second highest domestic grosser with $356 million in sales.

The Good Dinosaur has the good fortune of being about dinosaurs in a very strong year for them as Jurassic World ruled the summer frame. Disney has played the Turkey Day box office game before to fine results: 2010’s Tangled made $48 million for the three day weekend and $68 million for the Wednesday to Sunday portion and 2013’s Frozen earned $67 million for the traditional weekend with a $93 million five day gross.

Where will this roam in comparison to those titles? I don’t see this making as much as Frozen, which had rapturous reviews. Dinosaur has received positive notices so far, but not to the fawning level of Frozen (or Inside Out for that matter). I do, however, think it’ll manage to outdo what Tangled did five years ago. I’ll forecast a three day debut in the mid to high 50s with a high 70s gross for the extended frame. That could put it in close competition for the #1 spot with the final Hunger Games, depending on how that performs this weekend and how it holds up in its second.

The Good Dinosaur opening weekend prediction: $56.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $78.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Creed prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/19/creed-box-office-prediction/

For my Victor Frankenstein prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/19/victor-frankenstein-box-office-prediction/

Tomorrowland Movie Review

At one moment in Brad Bird’s Tomorrowland, one of the lead characters exclaims, “Can’t you just be amazed and move on?” It’s a line that Disney would surely like us to follow with this earnest, visually pleasing, sometimes preachy and totally uneven tale sprung from the minds of Bird and cowriter Damon Lindelof. There is a lot to admire about Tomorrowland and seeing an original picture presented with such a big budget and lots of tech wizardry is among them. Yet it’s hard to love it. Tomorrowland is mainly centered on optimism and it doesn’t hesitate to occasionally lecture us about a generation that dared to stop dreaming, according to its filmmakers. This is primarily centered on lack of focus with the space program and loss of interest in advancing science. Here we have a mega budget sci fi tale with a point of view and a supremely talented director behind the camera to tell it. There are moments during Tomorrowland that left me greatly optimistic for where the story would go to next and individual sequences that were flat out terrific. The faded optimism came with a plot that never really pays off and a third act that doesn’t match up with the first two. It results in being Bird’s least satisfying overall experience, though he’s set quite a bar with The Iron Giant, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, and Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol.

The movie begins with young Frank Walker at the World’s Fair in New York circa 1964. He’s invented a jetpack that sadly doesn’t fly. Nevertheless, his unbridled enthusiasm in science draws the attention of Athena (Raffie Cassidy), a young girl who gives him a pin emblazoned with a big T. Frank soon discovers that this pin transports him to Tomorrowland, a land many dimensions away that looks quite futuristic. We soon learn this is a place where dreamers can go to dream and invent things to keep the future rolling along without the interference of Earthly distractions like money and politics. Turns out Athena is no little girl and she’s a programmed robot tasked with finding those special people to populate Tomorrowland.

When the story switches to present day, Athena’s new pupil is Casey (Britt Robertson), an energetic and endlessly curious teen whose dad (Tim McGraw) is a NASA engineer who doesn’t get much work. She gets a pin as well, but her journey isn’t an easy one. It includes meeting a grown up Frank (George Clooney), whose feelings on Tomorrowland have changed through the years and not in a positive way. They may be well founded as Tomorrowland’s leader David Nix (Hugh Laurie) has a rather warped view on us Earth folk.

For a picture stressing the virtue of the idea behind Tomorrowland, we don’t spend much time there. Most of the action is set back on this planet and a lot of what we see is quite entertaining. Raffie Cassidy has the most challenging role of all and she gives a winning performance. Robertson and Clooney may be stars and they are both just fine, but Cassidy’s butt kicking robo girl steals the show. A scene in a hobby shop with Keegan-Michael Key and Kathryn Hahn and a sequence in which the Eiffel Tower is harboring an underground rocket ship are particular highlights.

As I stated, a lot to admire. However, by the time Laurie’s Nix is essentially preaching the plot to us in the third act, I felt a little underwhelmed. I realize this Utopias world he spoke of didn’t get explored much here. And while lessons about destroying the planet are important, it’s not like we haven’t heard it all before. I still would recommend making this trip because there is enough to like, but temper that optimism a little perhaps.

*** (out of four)

Inside Out Box Office Prediction

Pixar and Disney are back in the summer mix with Inside Out, opening Friday. The hit studio surprisingly sat the summer of 2o14 out and it was the first time Pixar hadn’t had a summer entry since 2005. Inside Out comes from Pete Docter, who made the acclaimed and Oscar nominated Up in 2009. The pic features the voices of Amy Poehler, Bill Hader, Mindy Kaling and Lewis Black. While critical kudos are widely expected for these animated offerings, Out’s reaction has been remarkable with its 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It could certainly contend for a Best Picture nod come Academy time next year.

The studio has had consistent openings for its features. Eight of the fourteen Pixar movies have debuted with numbers between $60 and $70 million. Only their sequels have earned higher. It’s easy to see Inside Out falling right in line with the expectations. I’ll say it manages to take in just over $70M, which would earn it the distinction of best Pixar non sequel premiere and third best overall.

Inside Out opening weekend prediction: $71.4 million

McFarland, USA Box Office Prediction

He’s already made three films about baseball plus football, golf, and bicycle racing pics. Apparently it’s time for cross country track on the silver screen for Kevin Costner as McFarland, USA debuts in theaters Friday.

The Disney produced drama tells the true story of a Latino high school track team with Costner as the coach. Maria Bello costars. It’s a bit of a period piece as it is set in the 1980s when Mr. Costner first started making these types of flicks. Of course, the 80s and 90s were when the star could help successfully open a movie and that time has passed.

I could definitely see this debuting right around with what another Disney sports pic did last summer, Millin Dollar Arm with Jon Hamm which earned a middling $10.5 million. This should hover right around the double digit mark. Not anything special at all, but also not so bad considering its meager reported $17 million budget.

McFarland, USA opening weekend prediction: $9.7 million

For my Hot Tub Time Machine 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/hot-tub-time-machine-2-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The DUFF, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/15/the-duff-box-office-prediction/

Into the Woods Box Office Prediction

Walt Disney’s Christmas gift to moviegoers is Into the Woods, the adaptation of Stephen Sondheim’s Broadway smash musical fantasy. From Oscar winning Chicago director Rob Marshall, Woods features an all-star cast that includes Meryl Streep, Johnny Depp, Emily Blunt, Chris Pine, Anna Kendrick, and James Corden.

Woods has been well publicized and should be primed to connect with audiences over the holiday break. Reviews have been mostly strong and it sits at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. There is some Oscar buzz, particularly for Streep in the Supporting Actress race. It’s debuting on approximately 2200 screens which isn’t near the 3000 plus that Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken is scheduled for, so that could slightly hinder its potential out of the gate.

Nevertheless with its strong brand name, Disney marketing, and recognizable stars, Woods should get off to a solid start with Christmas ticket buyers.

Into the Woods box office prediction: $21.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $30.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)