Last fall, the musical drama TeenSpirit premiered at the Toronto Film Festival to some acclaim that especially focused on its lead Elle Fanning. The film casts her as a shy teen who dreams of pop stardom. The soundtrack finds her covering tunes by the likes of Katy Perry, Ariana Grande, and Annie Lennox. It marks the directorial debut of Max Minghella, whose late father Anthony earned a gold trophy 23 years ago for making TheEnglishPatient. Zlatko Buric and Rebecca Hall are in the supporting cast.
With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 70%, Spirit is in no contention for a Best Picture nod. Yet some critics have made a point to single out Fanning, who’s had well received supporting roles lately in TheBeguiled and 20thCenturyWomen.
A little box office attention could’ve helped but Spirit completely stalled in its limited release over the weekend. Some reviewers may call Fanning a dark horse candidate months from now, but I expect this to end up like last year’s VoxLux with Natalie Portman. While different in tone, that picture also centered on a pop singer and had its supporters. They did not include Academy voters. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
The true life action thriller HotelMumbai expands nationwide this weekend after its limited engagement over this past one. Recounting the 2008 Taj Mahal Palace Hotel terror attacks in India, the film marks the directorial debut of Anthony Maras. Dev Patel and Armie Hammer headline with costars including Anupam Kher and Jason Isaacs.
Mumbai was originally screened at the Toronto Film Festival last fall to mostly positive reviews. It stands at 77% on Rotten Tomatoes. Over the weekend, it managed a per theater average of over $20,000 on four screens.
That’s pretty decent, but that average should dip significantly as it’s scheduled to hit about 800 this weekend. The number is lower than other new wide releases like Unplanned and TheBeachBum. However, Mumbai could top the grosses of those titles – making it the biggest earning newcomer that isn’t named Dumbo.
HotelMumbai opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million
After premiering last autumn at the Toronto Film Festival, GloriaBell hits theaters in limited fashion on Friday. The film is a remake of Sebastian Lelio’s 2013 Chilean comedic drama that was met with acclaim. Those strong reviews have greeted the American version (100% on Rotten Tomatoes), which again features Lelio behind the camera. It’s the filmmaker’s follow-up to 2017’s AFantasticWoman, which won the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Feature.
Julianne Moore plays the title role and critics have lavished praise for her work. Costars include John Turturro, Michael Cera, Brad Garrett, Holland Taylor, Sean Astin, Jeanne Tripplehorn, and Rita Wilson.
A24 acquired Gloria after its screening up north. Even with the March release, it’s likely that the studio will make a significant push for Moore to receive her sixth Oscar nod. Her fifth nomination was the lucky one in 2014 when took the statue in Best Actress for StillAlice. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the sole focus is on Moore being recognized, similar to Glenn Close in 2018 for TheWife.
Bottom line: it’s early, but Moore could be in the mix yet again. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Opening on a surprisingly large 2000 screens this weekend is Greta, a horror thriller from veteran Irish director Neil Jordan. The film is headlined by Elle star Isabelle Huppert and Chloe Grace Moretz with a supporting cast including Maika Monroe, Colm Feore, and Stephen Rea (who starred in Jordan’s 1992 Oscar contender TheCryingGame).
The pic screened last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to mostly positive notices. Its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 67% currently. I will admit that I was a bit shocked when I saw its large theater count. This is normally the type of feature that opens in limited fashion and hopes to gain steam.
I’ll say that Greta has trouble landing the adult audience it’s catering to and struggles to reach mid single digits.
Greta opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
For my TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral prediction, click here:
An adaptation of the well-regarded 2011 French film TheIntouchables, next weekend sees the long brewing release of the comedic drama TheUpside. Kevin Hart stars as a former convict who starts working for a paraplegic billionaire played by Bryan Cranston. Nicole Kidman costars and Neil Burger (who recently made Limitless and Divergent) directs.
TheUpside first premiered at the Toronto Film Festival way back in the fall of 2017 and was shelved for months when the Weinstein Company fell into its well publicized controversies. Critical reaction from Canada was mixed with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 55%.
Hart has been subject to his own negative publicity lately that resulted in his dropping out of hosting the Oscars. He’s been a consistently strong commodity at the box office over the past few years. However, that’s been with pictures played just for laughs without the dramatic elements. His potency in slightly more serious material is questionable.
A January release isn’t a major sign of confidence from its studio. I’ll say Hart and company could get this to high teens at its upside, but I suspect low double digits to teens is the likelihood.
TheUpside opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million
Blogger’s Note (11/20): On the eve of its premiere, I have decreased my projection for GreenBook
GreenBook is debuting on four screens this weekend, but expands to approximately 1000 over the long Thanksgiving frame on Wednesday. The 1960s set dramedy played at the Toronto Film Festival a couple of months back and is said to be quite the crowd pleaser. Oscar buzz has followed. Viggo Mortensen plays the driver to Mahershala Ali’s classical pianist Don Shirley and both are likely to nab Academy nods for their work. Peter Farrelly, best known for co-directing comedies such as DumbandDumber and There’sSomethingAboutMary with his brother Bobby, is behind the camera.
With an 83% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, Book will attempt to bring in an older audience over Turkey Day. With the anticipated awards attention, this looks to develop sturdy legs throughout the holiday season.
So how will it open? The theater count should limit its potential out of the gate, but I believe the opportunity to top double digits for the five-day is possible. I’ll say it just gets there.
GreenBook opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my RalphBreakstheInternet prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (10/12/18): A week before its premiere, I’m revising my estimate up from $67.2 million to $75.4 million
Next weekend, the latest Halloween entry arrives in theaters and this one does so with a twist. While this is the 11th installment in the 40-year-old franchise, it ignores everything that happened in parts 2-10 and serves as a direct sequel to the 1978 John Carpenter classic. Jamie Lee Curtis returns as Laurie Strode with Nick Castle (the original Michael Myers) donning the mask once again. David Gordon Green, known for pics as varied as Pineapple Express and last year’s Boston Marathon drama Stronger, directs and is co-writer along with comedic actor Danny McBride. Blumhouse Productions is behind this and they have proven themselves as masters of making low-budget horror flicks hugely profitable ventures (the price tag is only a reported $10 million). Costars include Judy Greer, Andi Matichak, and Will Patton.
This is actually Curtis’s fifth time playing her iconic character when including Halloween II, 1998’s Halloween: H20, and Halloween: Resurrection. Just pay no mind to anything that happened to her in those follow-ups. The release date timed for the actual holiday and the return of the series best known player has created some serious buzz. So did its screening at the Toronto Film Festival where it premiered to solid reviews (Rotten Tomatoes is currently at 85%).
Add all that up and Halloween appears primed to scare up big business. The current record holder for biggest horror debut of all time belongs to last year’s It at $123 million and that mark seems unattainable. However, this seems poised to top 2018’s The Nun, which premiered with $53 million. I believe a mid 70s gross is where Laurie and Michael will stake their claim, which would give it the second highest October debut behind Venom.
Halloween opening weekend prediction: $75.4 million
I recently did an Oscar Watch post for Shoplifters, the Japanese drama that won the Palme d’Or at this year’s Cannes Film Festival. It stands an excellent shot at a nomination for Best Foreign Language Film at the Oscars.
So, too, does the Cannes winner for the Jury Prize and that is Capernaum. This Lebanese tearjerker from director Nadine Labaki is said to be an audience favorite. It recently played at the Toronto Film Festival and buzz continued to increase. The Jury Prize recipient in 2017 was Russia’s Loveless and it went on to score an Academy nod.
The category is beginning to look crowded with such titles as Roma, ColdWar, Shoplifters, and Sunset (among others) as contenders. If Capernaum makes it in, it would be only the second picture from Lebanon to do so. Yet it would also be two in a row as last year’s TheInsult was the first.
Bottom line: Capernaum stands a solid shot among the five movies to be recognized in the Foreign Language Film race.
My weekly Oscar predictions are below for your perusal! The whirlwind festival season of Venice/Telluride/Toronto has come to an end and there’s precious few Academy contenders left to screen as the races come into more focus.
Here are some significant developments over the week:
The rise of Green Book after it won the Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival. The Peter Farrelly directed race relations drama has vaulted into the Best Picture contest as it rises from #10 on last week’s list to #5. It replaces Boy Erased in my listing of the nine predicted Picture nominees. We are not entirely sure yet that it’s Viggo Mortensen for lead Actor and Mahershala Ali for Supporting Actor, though that appears to be the case. Mortensen is now a predicted nominee (going from #8 to #4) and that means I took Robert Redford’s performance in The Old Man & The Gun out. Ali rises from #5 to #2 in Supporting Actor.
In Best Director, I’ve gone back to Spike Lee being nominated for BlacKkKlansman over Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk.
The Best Actress five remains the same, but I’ll note that Yalitza Aparicio’s work in Roma is sneaking up there as far a predicted nominee.
Word is out that Natalie Portman in Vox Lux will be campaigned for in Supporting Actress and not lead. My rankings reflect that change.
Speaking of Supporting Actress, I now have both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz in for The Favourite. Weisz replaces Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased (that film has taken a big hit as of late in my rankings and we’ll see if it recovers).
Stan and Ollie released its first trailer and while I don’t have it predicted for actual nominations, the film makes its first appearance as far as possible nods in Picture, Supporting Actor (John C. Reilly), and Original Screenplay.
The critically acclaimed Leave No Trace from earlier this year makes its inaugural showing for possible nominations in Picture, Supporting Actress (Thomasin McKenzie), and Adapted Screenplay.
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Green Book (PR: 10)
6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
8. Black Panther (PR: 9)
9. Vice (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
11. Boy Erased (PR: 7)
12. Widows (PR: 12)
13. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 14)
14. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 16)
15. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)
16. The Front Runner (PR: 13)
17. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 23)
18. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 19)
19. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 17)
20. Beautiful Boy (PR: 21)
21. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 18)
22. Stan and Ollie (PR: Not Ranked)
23. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 24)
24. Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ben Is Back
Cold War
Peterloo
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 3)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 12)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 10)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 9)
11. Jacques Audiard, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 13)
12. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 11)
13. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 14)
14. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
15. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 3)
3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 2)
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 8)
5. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 5)
7. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 7)
8. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 12)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
11. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 13)
12. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 11)
13. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 10)
14. Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 9)
8. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)
10. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 13)
11. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 12)
12. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 11)
13. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 14)
14. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 15)
15. Keira Knightley, Colette (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (moved to Supporting Actress)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 5)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 13)
7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
8. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
9. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 9)
10. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 7)
11. John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 11)
13. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 12)
14. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 14)
15. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Best Supporting Actress
1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 1)
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 7)
5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
7. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 10)
8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Lead Actress)
9. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 6)
10. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows (PR: 8)
11. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 11)
12. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
14. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)
The ensemble drama LifeItself opens next weekend and it likely faces an uphill battle for eyeballs. Dan Fogelman, best known as creator of NBC’s hit series “This Is Us”, directs. The cast includes Oscar Isaac, Olivia Wilde, Mandy Patinkin, Olivia Cooke, Annette Bening, Antonio Banderas, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Life premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last week to poor reviews and word of mouth. It stands at just 20% on Rotten Tomatoes and the marketing campaign has been lackluster.
Add all that up and this is looking like a major flop that could struggle to hit $5 million.
LifeItself opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
For my TheHousewithaClockinItsWalls prediction, click here:
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