Tag: Todd Haynes

29th Critics’ Choice Awards Nomination Predictions

The Critics’ Choice Awards are one of the more reliable precursors when it comes to movies and actors who might receive Oscar nominations. Hopefuls will hear their names called tomorrow for the 29th annual ceremony.

This show can sometimes be unpredictable with how many nominees there will be in each race. Last year there were 11 in Picture, 10 in Director, and 6 for others. I’ll project 10 in Pic and Director and go with six in the remainder of the derbies (and an alternate), but don’t be surprised if they alter the formula.

Let’s get to it!

Picture

American Fiction

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

May December

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: The Color Purple

Director

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Todd Haynes, May December

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Alternate: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Actress

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate: Natalie Portman, May December

Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Alternate: Colman Domingo, Rustin

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Penelope Cruz, Ferrari

Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Julianne Moore, May December

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate: Jodie Foster, Nyad

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Alternate: John Magaro, Past Lives

Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

May December

Past Lives

Saltburn

Alternate: Maestro

Adapted Screenplay

All of Us Strangers

American Fiction

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Foreign Language Film

Anatomy of a Fall

Monster

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Taste of Things

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Fallen Leaves

Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Alternate: Wish

Cinematography

The Killer

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Saltburn

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Costume Design

Barbie

Chevalier

The Color Purple

Killers of the Flower Moon

Poor Things

Priscilla

Alternate: Oppenheimer

Editing

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Alternate: The Holdovers

Makeup

Barbie

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Maestro

Nyad

Poor Things

Society of the Snow

Alternate: Oppenheimer

Production Design

Asteroid City

Barbie

The Color Purple

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: Maestro

Score

Elemental

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: The Boy and the Heron

Song

“Dance the Night” from Barbie

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

“Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives

“Road to Freedom” from Rustin

“This Wish” from Wish

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Visual Effects

The Creator

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: Napoleon

Ensemble

Air

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Saltburn

Alternate: The Color Purple

Comedy

American Fiction

Asteroid City

Barbie

Joy Ride

The Holdovers

No Hard Feelings

Alternate: Bottoms

Young Actor/Actress

Joe Bird, Talk to Me

Andrew Barth Feldman, No Hard Feelings

Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Ariana Greenblatt, Barbie

Milo Machado-Graner, Anatomy of a Fall

Violet McGraw, M3GAN

Alternate: Iman Vellani, The Marvels

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Barbie, Poor Things

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

7 Nominations

Maestro, Past Lives

6 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers

5 Nominations

May December

4 Nominations

American Fiction, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

3 Nominations

The Color Purple, Saltburn

2 Nominations

All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Asteroid City, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, No Hard Feelings, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

1 Nomination

Air, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Ferrari, Godzilla Minus One, Joy Ride, The Killer, M3GAN, Monster, Nimona, Nyad, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Talk to Me, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish

81st Golden Globe Awards Nominations Predictions

Prior to its January 7th airing on CBS and Paramount+, nominations for the 81st Golden Globe Awards are out Monday, December 11th. After years of airing on NBC, the ceremony has found a new home after the controversies of the last few years involving the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

That’s not the only change with the program. The categories we are used to have expanded from five to six nominees. And a new competition – Cinematic and Box Office Achievement – comes with eight contenders. We could safely coin this the “Barbenheimer” race unless Taylor Swift has something to say about that.

As always, there’s some controversy in the differentiation between Drama and Musical/Comedy placements. Netflix decided to campaign Todd Haynes’s May December in the latter even though Drama seems more appropriate. It could help it get more noms.

Here we go with my picks in each cinematic derby and I’ll give you an alternate with each.

Motion Picture (Drama)

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Saltburn

Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

American Fiction

Barbie

The Color Purple

The Holdovers

May December

Poor Things

Alternate: Air

Film Director

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

Actress (Film Drama)

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Cailee Spaney, Priscilla

Alternate: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Actor (Film Drama)

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Alternate: Zac Efron, The Iron Claw

Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, You Hurt My Feelings

Natalie Portman, May December

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings

Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Gael Garcia Bernal, Cassandro

Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario

Timothee Chalamet, Wonka

Matt Damon, Air

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Alternate: Jamie Foxx, The Burial

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Julianne Moore, May December

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Supporting Actor

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Best Screenplay

American Fiction

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: May December

Cinematic and Box Office Achievment

Barbie

Elemental

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

John Wick: Chapter 4

Oppenheimer

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Alternate: The Little Mermaid

Motion Picture (Non-English Language)

Anatomy of a Fall

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Taste of Things

The Teachers’ Lounge

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: The Promised Land

Motion Picture (Animated)

The Boy and the Heron

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Elemental

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Alternate: Wish

Original Score

The Boy and the Heron

Killers of the Flower Moon

Nyad

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Elemental

Original Song

“Dance the Night” from Barbie

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

“Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot

“A World of Your Own” from Wonka

Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

Barbie

8 Nominations

Oppenheimer

7 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

6 Nominations

Poor Things

5 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

4 Nominations

Maestro, May December

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Nyad, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

1 Nomination

Air, All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Cassandro, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Dream Scenario, Flamin’ Hot, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, John Wick: Chapter 4, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rustin, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, The Teachers’ Lounge, You Hurt My Feelings

The NY Critics Make a Killer Pick

The New York Film Critics Circle revealed their best of selections for the year as precursors will be coming fast and furious in the days ahead. Critics from the Big Apple doled out two awards each for Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, and Todd Haynes’s May December.

It was Killers that took Best Film while Nolan was your Best Director (Oppenheimer also won Cinematography). Those titles (with Oppenheimer first and Killers second) have been 1-2 in my BP predictions for weeks. Eight of the last ten NYFCC Best Film winners ended up on the Oscar BP list and you can expect that trend to continue here.

In Best Actress, Lily Gladstone (Flower Moon) was the pick as she should make the Academy’s quintet in a competitive field. As for Best Actor, New York made a surprise selection in Franz Rogowski for Passages. While the picture drew acclaim as did the performance, he is not expected to be a factor in the Oscar derby. If more critics prizes come, who knows? But it’s doubtful.

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, widely expected to be a factor in Supporting Actress, was successful here for her work in The Holdovers. In Supporting Actor, Charles Melton is now 2 for 2 with Gotham and NYFCC trophies. His inclusion at the Oscars is looking more and more solidified. The Supporting Actor race recipient here has made the Academy’s quintet nine out of the last ten years (more than any other major competition).

A week after taking Best Feature at Gotham, Celine Song’s Past Lives was named Best First Film as its slot in the Oscar BP lineup is looking fairly safe.

May December, in addition to Melton, took Best Screenplay (I have it currently in fifth for Original Screenplay).

In what could be a seesaw battle for critics prizes, The Boy and the Heron was the Animated Film victor over Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

Anatomy of a Fall, despite not being France’s selection for International Feature Film at the Oscars, is New York’s winner. I have it nabbing a BP spot at the moment, but it’s a question mark.

For Non-Fiction Film, this branch went with the four-hour culinary doc Menus-Plaisirs-Les Troisgros. It has not been on my radar screen for Academy attention.

As for contenders that received no love, NY didn’t give any hardware to Poor Things, Maestro, or The Zone of Interest.

Keep an eye on this blog for all the Oscar precursor activity!

2023 Oscar Predictions: June 25th Edition

For my last forecast for the month of June, not a lot has changed in my predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. Viola Davis (Air) is back in Supporting Actress over Julianne Moore (May December). In the screenplay contests, I’ve elevated Anatomy of a Fall over May December in the original derby. For Adapted Screenplay, Oppenheimer jumps into the top five over Poor Things. It is worth noting that while I don’t have animated box office behemoth Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse in my BP ten, it does jump seven positions to number 12.

When I do my initial July projections in a couple of weeks, we might have some buzz for potential heavy hitters Oppenheimer and Barbie as they each ready their debuts on July 21st.

We have seen our first peeks at fall contenders such as Challengers, Priscilla, Drive-Away Dolls, and Dumb Money over the past few days via their trailers. Truth be told, this is a slow time for awards prognosticating. This will change before we know it with festival season around the corner.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Poor Things (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 19) (+7)

13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Barbie (PR: 15) (+1)

15. May December (PR: 12) (-3)

16. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Challengers (PR: 13) (-4)

18. Napoleon (PR: 15) (-3)

19. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Rustin (PR: 22) (+2)

21. The Killer (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+2)

23. The Book of Clarence (PR: 18) (-5)

24. Ferrari (PR: 25) (+1)

25. How Do You Live? (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Flint Strong (moved to 2024)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E()

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)

15. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Todd Haynes, May December

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12 )(E)

13. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (E)

11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mike Faist, Challengers (moved to Supporting Actor)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)

13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (E)

14. Josh O’Connor, Challengers (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong

Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Saltburn (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Air (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. May December (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)

10. Challengers (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 2) (+1)

12. Rustin (PR: 11) (-1)

13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (E)

15. Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Monster

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (+2)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Strangers (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

13. The Bikeriders (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Boys in the Boat (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie (moved to Original)

Flint Strong

Ferrari

2023 Oscar Predictions: June 14th Edition

My mid-June look at the major races for the 96th Academy Awards adds the screenplay competitions to the mix. In them, my top picks for Best Picture (Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives) lead their respective writing categories.

Truth be told, we’re in a bit of a lull for significant awards buzz. The Cannes Film Festival is over and the key fall fests (Toronto, Venice, Telluride) are nearly three months out.

In July, we will have two potential heavyweights unveiled in Oppenheimer and Barbie. At this juncture, a lot of my speculation is simply deciding whether certain features are even released in 2023. We might not see Ana DuVernay’s Caste, Steve McQueen’s Blitz, or Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson until 2024. That’s why I currently have them out of the mix.

One item that has materialized in the past couple of weeks is the release of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The acclaimed animated sequel has established itself as at least a candidate for BP consideration. There’s no doubt it’s the current frontrunner for Animated Feature.

You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Air (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 12) (+1)

12. May December (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Barbie (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Napoleon (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Asteroid City (PR: 24) (+7)

18. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

20. The Killer (PR: 23) (+3)

21. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Rustin (PR: 18) (-4)

23. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 20) (-3)

24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Ferrari (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR:11) (-1)

13. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: Not Ranked)

Droped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Jane Levy, A Little Prayer

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 14) (+2)

13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Supporing Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Josh O’Connor, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives

2. Air

3. The Holdovers

4. Saltburn

5. May December

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City

7. Challengers

8. Maestro

9. Anatomy of a Fall

10. The Book of Clarence

11. Rustin

12. Drive Away Dolls

13. Napoleon

14. Bob Marley: One Love

15. Monster

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Poor Things

3. The Color Purple

4. The Zone of Interest

5. Dune: Part Two

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

8. Barbie

9. The Nickel Boys

10. Flint Strong

11. Freud’s Last Session

12. Strangers

13. The Bikeriders

14. Ferrari

15. The Boys in the Boat

2023 Oscar Predictions: May 29th Edition

As the month of May closes out, we arrive at my post Cannes forecast for the 96th Academy Awards! There were heavy hitters premiering in the south of France and buzz to discuss for several of them.

One year ago, Triangle of Sadness took the Palme d’Or (the fest’s top prize) and it eventually became a Best Picture contender at the Oscars. Ruben Östlund, Triangle‘s director who served as this year’s jury president, was also nominated for his behind the camera work.. In 2023, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall won the biggest honor. The French courtroom drama established itself as a major factor in International Feature Film and it is feasible that it could nab a slot in the eventual BP ten.

Other films that solidified their statuses as Academy bait? We start with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. The three and a half hour epic maintains its #1 position in Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Lily Gladstone), and Supporting Actor after many raves at Cannes. However, the Supporting Actor in first is Robert De Niro and not Jesse Plemons, who was perched there two weeks ago. Reviews indicate it’s De Niro who should have the better shot.

Let’s be clear. My rankings right now reflect who I believe will be nominated and not necessarily who I think will win (it’s simply too early for that). Killers looks to be in a fantastic position for multiples nods after its unveiling.

Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is right behind Moon as far as significant chatter out of the festival. The Holocaust drama could contend in Pic and Director. So could lead actress Sandra Hüller. Yet she might have an even stronger chance for her performance in Anatomy of a Fall.

For May December from Todd Haynes, reviews were quite solid. Its best chances at inclusion could be for its trio of actors Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton. We’re still not sure if Portman and Moore will be co-campaigned for lead. For now I’m slotting the former in Actress and the latter in supporting.

Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City drew plaudits though mixed reaction elsewhere. I’m skeptical of its chances (though it could play in down-the-line races like Production Design and Score).

Then there’s the features that dropped out of contention. Pixar’s Elemental won’t be the first studio title to vie for BP since Toy Story 3. It might be lucky to get an Animated Feature mention after some lackluster reaction. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will not be a Top Gun: Maverick style hopeful for Oscars. And the fest’s opener Jeanne du Barry with Johnny Depp might get a Costume Design nod and that’s all.

In 2022, I made predictions for the 95th Academy Awards on this same day. It yielded 3 of the eventual 10 BP nominees with eventual winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four others (Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick) were named in Other Possibilities. I wasn’t ready to anoint Triangle of Sadness despite its Cannes hardware. In Director – I correctly named the victorious Daniels for Everything Everywhere and Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. With Best Actress, I had Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere) who would take the gold. Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Ana de Armas (Blonde) were Other Possibilities. I will note that I had Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) listed in supporting and she was nominated in lead. For Actor, winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) were correctly called with Austin Butler (Elvis) listed. Both Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) were Other Possibilities. None of the five contenders in Supporting Actress were rightly placed. I did have winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere), her costar Stephanie Hsu, and Hong Chau (The Whale) in Other Possibilities. Finally, Ke Huy Quan (who took the statue) for Everything Everywhere was the only correctly tagged performer in Supporting Actor.

OK… deep breath. With all that context, let’s see where everything and everyone ranks…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. Saltburn (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 15) (+8)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Air (PR: 9) (E)

10. Poor Things (PR: 6) (-4)

Other Possibilities:

11. May December (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Maestro (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

15. Blitz (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Barbie (PR: 12) (-4)

17. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Rustin (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Flint Strong (PR: 17) (-2)

20. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 16) (-4)

21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (E)

23. The Killer (PR: 19) (-4)

24. Asteroid City (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Ferrari (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Strangers

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 14) (+9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Todd Haynes, May December

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Jane Levy, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Regina King, Shirley

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)

11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

15. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, Strangers

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (E)

12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (E)

14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (E)

15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Claire Foy, Strangers

Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+4)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilties:

6. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-9)

11. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Maestro

Oscar Predictions: May December

The Cannes Film Festival can quickly confirm or deny the awards prospects for its screeners. Just today, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon (as expected) solidified its standing as a player in multiple races including the big one. On other hand, anyone thinking that Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny had a Top Gun: Maverick level shot at breaking into Oscar territory were disabused of that notion upon its unveiling.

Then there’s cases where it’s murkier and May December from Todd Haynes falls into that category. The word campy is being used more than any other I’ve seen in this tale of a Hollywood actress (Natalie Portman) shadowing Julianne Moore. She plays a tabloid star known for bedding a 13-year-old who’s now her adult husband (Charles Melton).

Haynes has yet to see any of his pictures, including the acclaimed Far From Heaven, I’m Not There, and Carol, contend for Best Picture. He has, on the other hand, seen his performers get nominated. Moore was up in lead for Heaven while Cate Blanchett received a Supporting Actress mention for There. For Carol, Blanchett was nominated again (this time for Actress) while Rooney Mara made the cut in Supporting Actress.

With 90% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time, December is receiving some glowing reviews mixed with more subdued appreciation. Whatever distributor picks it up (which I’m sure is imminent) is bound to mount a campaign. Its chances in the acting derbies are probably higher than Picture or Director (though I wouldn’t count out Samy Burch’s original screenplay).

Category placement will be fascinating to watch. From what I’ve read, Portman and Moore appear to be co-leads. That doesn’t mean they won’t be split and one believable scenario is Portman in lead with Moore in supporting. They are both former winners in Best Actress: Portman for 2010’s Black Swan and Moore in 2014’s Still Alice. As for Melton, the former Riverdale performer appears to be a Supporting Actor play. All three should be in the mix for contention.

There’s another category placement story. At the Golden Globes, December could be placed in Musical/Comedy where its chances at noms might be stronger. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2023 Oscar Predictions: May 14th Edition

My second round of ranked predictions in the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards comes two days before the 76th Annual Cannes Film Festival gets underway in the south of France. It will conclude on May 27th and you can expect my third round of forecasts shortly thereafter.

At Cannes, we will receive our first reviews and buzz for numerous heavy hitters. Those pictures include Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, May December from Todd Haynes, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, Monster from Hirokazu Kore-eda, Firebrand with Alicia Vikander, Pixar’s Elemental, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Here is my pre-Cannes outlook on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies and let’s see how this gets shook up in a couple of weeks!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Air (PR: 9) (E)

10. May December (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Barbie (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Blitz (PR: 13) (E)

14. Challengers (PR: 8) (-6)

15. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Napoleon (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Killer (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Rustin (PR: 20) (E)

21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Ferrari (PR: 23) (E)

24. Strangers (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Asteroid City (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Bikeriders

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Luca Guadagnino, Challengers

David Fincher, The Killer

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (moved to Supporting)

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)

11. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 5) (-7)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Scott, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andre Holland, The Actor

Paul Mescal, Strangers (moved to Supporting)

Adam Driver, Ferrari

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)

12. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Jeremy Strong, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Paul Dano, Dumb Money

2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Director)

Oscar predictions encompassing my first ranked selections for the 96th Academy Awards turns to Best Director. If you didn’t catch my posts on the acting contenders, you can find them at the bottom.

My initial projections for the previous ceremony at the same juncture in 2022 correctly identified Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) in the top five and had eventual winners the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once) in sixth. I also had Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) listed. Their pictures got pushed back and you’ll find them here yet again.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

TODD’S BEST DIRECTOR PREDICTIONS

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

3. Celine Song, Past Lives

4. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

5. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple

Other Possibilities:

6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn

8. Luca Guadagnino, Challengers

9. Todd Haynes, May December

10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie

11. Steve McQueen, Blitz

12. Ben Affleck, Air

13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

14. Bradley Cooper, Maestro

15. David Fincher, The Killer

Best Picture is up next!

2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Actor)
2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Supporting Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Director)

This blogger’s first take on the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Director. If you didn’t catch my early glimpses for the acting races, you can find them linked at the bottom.

When I made my initial projections for the recently aired 95th Oscars back in April 2022, it correctly identified one of the eventual nominees: Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. The eventual winners – the Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once – were mentioned in Other Possibilities.

I’ll have Best Picture up later this evening!

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR

Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Air

Wes Anderson, Asteroid City

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Emerald Fennell, Saltburn

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Luca Guadagnino, Challengers

Todd Haynes, May December

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Jeymes Samuel, The Book of Clarence

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actor)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)