How important is the Venice Film Festival when it comes to premiering Oscar hopefuls? In the past decade, nearly half of the Best Picture winners got their rollout in Italy. That would be Birdman, Spotlight, The Shape of Water, and Nomadland. It’s tough to find a recent Venice fest where there’s not at least 2 eventual nominees for the Academy’s biggest race.
This year’s competition kicks off tomorrow and you can anticipate plenty of individualized Oscar prediction posts coming your way. Telluride follows this weekend (with the lineup announcement on Thursday) and Toronto starts next Thursday (I’ll be there!).
Let’s take a look at ten Venice entries looking to create their Oscar buzz over the next few days…
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Laura Poitras, who won an Academy Award for her 2014 Edward Snowden documentary Citizenfour, turns her eye to activist Nan Goldin and her fight against the opioid epidemic. This could certainly be a player in the Doc competition.
The Banshees of Inisherin
The last time filmmaker Martin McDonagh, Colin Farrell, and Brendan Gleeson collaborated, the result was the acclaimed 2008 black comedy In Bruges. They’re playing in the same genre here with McDonagh’s follow-up to 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, which earned acting Oscars for Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell.
Bardo
3 out of Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s last four films were nominated for Best Picture. Birdman took gold with Babel and The Revenant contending. Expectations are that his latest drama (available on Netflix in December) could be the streamer’s most serious contender and it could immediately become a frontrunner for International Feature Film.
Blonde
Andrew Dominik’s Marilyn Monroe biopic starring Ana de Armas (another Netflix offering) comes with an NC-17 rating and lots of prognosticators wondering if it’s too risqué to get awards attention. We’ll know soon.
Bones & All
Luca Guadagnino had a pic in the BP derby five years ago with Call Me by Your Name and then followed with the confounding Suspiria remake. This horror romance with cannibalistic themes stars Timothee Chalamet and Taylor Russell. I have’t really had this as much of a threat for the Oscar race so let’s see if that narrative shifts.
Don’t Worry Darling
Olivia Wilde’s follow-up to Booksmart is a tale of marital and suburban strife headlined by Florence Pugh and Harry Styles. The thriller has been generating headlines for some wrong reasons lately, but great reviews could turn that buzz around.
The Son
Florian Zeller took home a Screenplay Oscar for 2020’s The Father while Anthony Hopkins won Best Actor. The Father is next and Hugh Jackman is seeking his first statue. The supporting cast includes Laura Dern, Vanessa Kirby, Zen McGrath, and Hopkins. Any and all could be in the mix for acting honors.
Tar
Cate Blanchett could be lined up for a third Oscar win in Todd Field’s latest in which the acclaimed actress plays a composer. It’s the director’s first feature in over 15 years after both In the Bedroom and Little Children received Academy nods.
The Whale
Darren Aronofsky directed Natalie Portman to the podium in 2010’s Black Swan. There’s chatter he could do the same and assist in mounting a significant career comeback for Brendan Fraser (something he did for Mickey Rourke with 2008’s The Wrestler). The Mummy star plays a 600 pound man reconnecting with his daughter (Sadie Sink).
White Noise
Noah Baumbach’s last Netflix film was the BP contending Marriage Story from 2019. His Marriage star Adam Driver is back in this adaptation of a 1980s sci-fi dark comedy. It will open Venice tomorrow and it will be my first Oscar Predictions post. Stay tuned!
My final Oscar predictions for the month of August could rightfully be called the calm before the storm. That’s because Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about to blow in screenings for several legitimate contenders. And there’s no doubt it will change the forecasts below.
My plan is to do the next update on Labor Day (ten days from now). By that point, there should be reviews and awards buzz out for Venice pics like White Noise, Tar, Bardo, Bones and All, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Don’t Worry Darling, among others. There’s also anything that plays Telluride over the holiday weekend (expect that to potentially include The Son and Women Talking). My next update should be about a week later.
Those next updates will incorporate the lengthy list of Toronto screenings and late Venice leftovers. That list includes Blonde, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, Empire of Light, The Good Nurse, The Menu, The Lost King, The Woman King, Bros, Chevalier, and more. In other words… buckle up because the Oscar picture is going to be in much sharper focus over the next three weeks!
My Best Picture ten remains the same, but I’ve made a change in Director with Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) in over Sarah Polley for Women Talking.
In Best Actress, there’s a new #1 as I’ve vaulted Cate Blanchett (Tar) to the top spot over Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Yeoh spent only a week in first after she replaced Babylon‘s Margot Robbie, who’s now in third position. We will know in a matter of days whether Blanchett’s promotion is warranted courtesy of Venice.
I’ve switched Micheal Ward’s performance in Empire of Light from supporting to lead. Toronto’s fest should shed light on whether that’s the right call. Due to this, Bill Nighy (Living) falls out of my actor quintet. In Supporting Actor, Babylon‘s Brad Pitt is back in the mix since I’ve taken Ward out. In Original Screenplay, I’m switching in Bardo with The Banshees of Inisherin out.
You can read all the movement below and keep an eye out for lots of individualized prediction posts for the pictures playing in Italy, Colorado, and Canada in the coming weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Son (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Tar (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+2)
13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. She Said (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (E)
17. Broker (PR: 20) (+3)
18. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 17) (-1)
19. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Till (PR: 18) (-2)
21. The Menu (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Bones and All (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Living (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 9) (E)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
11. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 13) (+2)
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 14) (E)
15. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Golda (moved to 2023)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye
Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All
Harry Styles, My Policeman
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (E)
14. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Toby Jones, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Anthony Hopkins, The Son (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (moved to Best Actor)
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tar (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
11. Broker (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bros (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 14) (E)
15. Chevalier (PR: 15) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)
4. She Said (PR: 5) (+1)
5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bones and All (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+1)
With the Venice Film Festival less than two weeks away and Toronto and Telluride on its heels, the Oscar races are poised to become clearer quite soon. We are mostly in speculation mode at this juncture, but there’s change afoot in the Actor and Supporting Actor with this latest update.
I have vaulted Bill Nighy (Living) into the top 5 for Best Actor and that removes Adam Driver in White Noise. I’ve struggled with Brad Pitt’s placement in Supporting Actor for Babylon. At this point, it’s not certain whether he’ll be campaigned for in lead or supporting. Therefore I have Pitt on the outside looking in for Supporting Actor and that allows The Son‘s Zen McGrath to enter the projected quintet.
While no changes were made in the Picture, Director, the Actress derbies, or screenplay – there’s a new #1 for Best Actress. Since I started my estimates back in April, I’ve had Margot Robbie (Babylon) perched atop the charts. I’m now switching that to Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Finally, I’ve dropped David O. Russell’s Amsterdam from contention in all races. The studio’s decision to move it up a month from November to October is something I look at as a bad sign. That’s in addition to it getting no festival screenings, a trailer that didn’t impress, and lingering personal issues and bad press for Mr. Russell.
A final note: at this pre-festival juncture in mid-August of 2021, my predictions yielded seven of the eventual 10 BP contenders.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll likely have one more update prior to August 30th before the festival season is upon us!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 12) (+1)
12. White Noise (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 17) (E)
18. Till (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Bones and All (PR: 18) (-1)
20. Broker (PR: 20) (E)
21. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Menu (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Woman King (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)
11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (E)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)
13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Maris Schrader, She Said (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (E)
11. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: 12) (E)
13. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Harry Styles, My Policeman (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
11. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Don Cheadle, White Noise
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bardo (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tar (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
11. Broker (PR: 11) (E)
12. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (E)
13. Bros (PR: 13) (E)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Chevalier (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)
4. White Noise (PR: 4) (E)
5. She Said (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bones and All (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Living (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Till (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-2)
For my first Oscar analysis in the 8 major categories for the month of August, the ten BP contenders remain the same. However, Everything Everywhere All at Once moves to #2 with Babylon slipping a spot to third. I truly do believe there’s a path for Once to take the top prize next year depending on how the next five months of releases play out.
At the end of July, I vaulted Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans to #1 in BP. Today I’m putting the filmmaker in first with Babylon‘s Damien Chazelle now in second.
While my lead actress and actor picks remain unaltered, there is movement in both supporting derbies. In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) and Griselda Sicillani (Bardo) are in my projected quintet with Hong Chau (The Whale) and Zoe Kazan (She Said) falling out. In Supporting Actor, I’m switching Empire of Light costars with Michael Ward making the cut over Colin Firth.
Finally, I’ve taken Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives out of contention in all categories where I previously had it listed as a possibility. If Amazon Prime mounts a campaign later this year, it could find itself back in the mix. I wouldn’t count on it despite its solid reviews.
Expect another update in the next week or two! You can peruse all the movement below:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. White Noise (PR: 12) (+1)
12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elvis (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (E)
17. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Bones and All (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Till (PR: 19) (E)
20. Broker (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Woman King (PR: 24) (E)
25. Amsterdam (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Thirteen Lives
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
As July comes to a close, Oscar prognosticators received several bits of fascinating news this past week. The first was the lineup of the Venice Film Festival as well as the bulk of titles that will play in Toronto. That wild season (which also includes Telluride) is a mere month away. We will see a huge number of awards hopefuls being screened with long awaited buzz finally becoming clear.
Yet the biggest news is the (as yet unconfirmed) rumor that Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon will not come out until 2023. Variety and Deadline essentially reported it as fact. I struggled all day with whether to include Killers in my updated predictions (I faced the same choices a couple of weeks ago with Rustin). My final decision was to drop it. If Killers ends up back on the 2022 calendar, Variety and Deadline have some explaining to do…
Another development is that Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives was released. While reviews were certainly decent, I don’t think they’re strong enough that it will be a true BP contender. It’s at #25 on my list.
The Killers announcement obviously means major changes in most of my lineups. Cannes fest winner Triangle of Sadness replaces it in my 10 BP picks while Sarah Polley (Women Talking) is in for Scorsese in Director. Adam Driver in the Venice opener White Noise replaces Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor. Hong Chau (The Whale) is now in Supporting Actress with Lily Gladstone out. And with Jesse Plemons dropping in Supporting Actor, that leaves room for Triangle‘s Woody Harrelson. Finally, She Said rises in Adapted Screenplay.
That’s not all, folks! There’s a new #1 in Best Picture! I’ve had Damien Chazelle’s Babylon ranked #1 from the beginning… until now. In order to find a BP winner that didn’t play at either Venice or Telluride or Toronto or Sundance or Cannes, you have to go all the way back to (ironically) Martin Scorsese’s The Departed. That was 16 years ago. Babylon could still sneak into Telluride. Yet I’m skeptical it will. This factoid alone is enough for me to vault Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans (premiering at Toronto) to the top spot.
I’m not finished yet with the #1 changes. The Son is now first in Adapted Screenplay since Killers has moved. And Ke Huy Quan rises to the pole position in Supporting Actor over Paul Dano from The Fabelmans.
Another alteration – Empire of Light falls out of Original Screenplay with The Banshees of Inisherin in as my likely lone screenplay nominee.
That’s a lot of movement in one week and you can peruse it all below!
The forecast in Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up is a planet killing comet mixed with a heavy dose of condescension. This is an all-star experience about our home star being decimated. The writer/director is a Saturday Night Live veteran scribe who mastered the art of penning sketches with exaggerated characters. Even with all the talent involved (there’s lots of Oscar nods and wins among the cast), hardly any rise above caricature status. The nerdy but hot scientist, the clueless government officials, the spoiled pop princess, the pompous and feeble brained news anchors, the empathy devoid and weird billionaire…
These one-note types may fit a mold in a cleverly developed bit that runs five minutes. Not so much in this two and a half hour countdown. They’re mostly tiresome in McKay’s latest politically charged tale. In The Big Short, the filmmaker mixed a cast of familiar faces, complicated financial talk, and humor to rewarding payoffs. McKay’s comedies with Will Ferrell (particularly Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy) are already classics. The issue presented here isn’t complex… a scientific discovery (doubling as a metaphor for climate change) is on its way. McKay’s treatment of the subject matter isn’t subtle. And the screenplay often fails to be funny when showcasing its righteous indignation. Anger and laughter can be a potent combo if handled properly. It’s a test that isn’t met here.
Michigan St. Kate Dibiasky (Jennifer Lawrence) discovers said object hurtling toward Earth with a delivery date about six months out. Her professor, Dr. Randall Mindy (Leonardo DiCaprio) teams with her along with the head of the Planetary Defense Coordination Office (Rob Morgan) to warn a White House filled with scandal and nepotism. The President is Janie Orlean (Meryl Streep), whose Supreme Court nominee may be a porn star and her lover. Her Chief of Staff is her intellectually challenged but supremely confident son (Jonah Hill).
The 100% certainty of a deep impact causing armageddon is not music to the ears of the flailing administration. In fact, Kate and Dr. Mindy are booked in the back segment of a “news” hour hosted by a duo played by Cate Blanchett and Tyler Perry. The segment preceding them is about the romantic entanglements of a famous singer (Ariana Grande). Some of the country takes the threat seriously while another segment pretends it doesn’t exist (and yes it’s easy to draw comparisons to the pandemic era).
President Orlean and her bumbling bubble get more involved when eccentric tech mogul Peter Isherwell (Mark Rylance) figures out a way to monetize the materials from the potential Earth shatterer. And while Dr. Mindy becomes distracted with his new fame and social media status, Kate’s stern warnings make her an enemy of the state.
I won’t get to Kate’s two boyfriends or Dr. Mindy’s wife and kids or whether the snacks in the White House are free or not (actually a gag that’s pretty solid). There’s a whole lot of players in Don’t Look Up and I’m challenged to name a performance that sticks with me for the right reasons. DiCaprio and Lawrence are adequate, but we know they can be so much better. Others are outright annoying and that includes Hill, Rylance, and even Streep. That’s because McKay never writes them above the level of cartoonish morons.
Will your political viewpoints determine whether you dig this? I don’t think so. The frequent struggles to develop the principals and the jarring tone shifts (a late pivot to sentimentality falls flat) should offend both sides and those in between. I’ve watched McKay skewer his targets with far more precision that achieved more lasting results. He’s clear that we’re all doomed in Don’t Look Up. With the characters inhabiting his screenplay, you might find yourself pulling for the comet.
Up until the last couple of weeks, I’ve had Adam McKay’s political satire Don’t Look Up on the outskirts of my predicted 10 Best Picture nominees. After all, just how many Netflix contenders will get in? I figured The Power of the Dog would be their main play and there’s other possibilities with Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Lost Daughter, and Passing.
I recently vaulted it into the fold of ten and (better late than never), that appears to be the right call. Before its eagerly awaited December 10th limited bow in theaters and Christmas Eve Netflix premiere, Up has screened for critics. The social media reaction is leaning toward the positive with particular shoutouts for certain elements and performers.
The star-studded cast is filled with previous Oscar winners and nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Jonah Hill, Mark Rylance, Timothee Chalamet, Cate Blanchett, and Meryl Streep. There’s also Rob Morgan, Tyler Perry, Ron Perlman, Ariana Grande, Kid Cudi, Chris Evans, Matthew Perry, and Himesh Patel.
McKay’s last two pics (2015’s The Big Short and 2018’s Vice) were both up in the biggest race of all. His original screenplay detailing the end of the world should be recognized. I’m not as confident he’ll make it for directing though I will note that he made the cut for the previous two and it’s certainly feasible. While Dog may continue to be the Netflix flick I rank higher when I update my forecast Sunday, I don’t see Up moving down the charts and out of the 10.
As for the massive list of performers, the early word is that Leo could vie for his seventh nod (his sole win came for 2015’s The Revenant). He still needs to get past other sturdy thespians. I do like his chances better tonight than I did earlier today. With Lawrence, Best Actress is overflowing with hopefuls and I doubt she lands #5. Ms. Streep is going for her 22nd trip to the dance. Her work as the President here is being mentioned in the laudatory tweets. Supporting Actress has got its share of contenders too, but betting against Meryl is always risky. Supporting Actor is wide open at the moment yet I’m skeptical about Hill or Rylance (or the many others). If Netflix goes all in on one of them, that dynamic could shift.
Surprisingly enough, its most assured nomination could come with Ariana Grande. Not for Supporting Actress (her part is said to be brief), but for her Original Song “Just Look Up”. Editing seems a safe bet as does Score and other down the line races like Sound and Visual Effects are possible.
Bottom line: it’s looking up for Don’t Look Up to get up to a handful of nominations. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
We come to Best Actor in my deep dive of the major Oscar races covering the four acting showdowns in addition to Picture and Director. If you missed the first two covering Supporting Actor and Actress, they’re here:
Looking at the past two years in my early November estimates in this competition, there’s a better track record than with the supporting categories. In 2019, with two months to go, I rightly had four of the five nominees pegged: winner Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), and Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes). Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) was mentioned in Other Possibilities. For the 2020 experience, that number was three – winner Anthony Hopkins in The Father, Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), and Gary Oldman (Mank). The other two were named as possibilities – Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal and Minari‘s Steven Yeun.
In 2021, it appears that three hopefuls have probably punched their tickets. The conversation begins with Will Smith. He’s a two-time nominee – once 20 years ago as Ali and 15 years past in The Pursuit of Happyness. As King Richard, it may well be the Fresh Prince’s time to be crowned for the true life sports drama that is said to be a massive crowdpleaser.
When Smith lost for Ali, it was to Denzel Washington in Training Day. The two-time winner looks to be back in the mix with The Tragedy of Macbeth. While I’m feeling confident in his nomination, I don’t see Mr. Washington emerging victorious here.
The other probable player is Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog, gunning for his second nod seven years after The Imitation Game. Several festival reviews are calling it career best work and I don’t see him sliding.
After that, there’s quite a few of performers vying for the remaining two spots. There’s a few in the “not yet seen” silo. That includes Bradley Cooper in Nightmare Alley. We are all waiting to see how big his supporting role is in Licorice Pizza. I’ve had Cooper listed #1 there for months. If he ends up falling shot in that one, he could rise with this.
Andrew Garfield’s performance in Tick, Tick… Boom! is a trendy selection. He’s also a possibility in supporting with The Eyes of Tammy Faye (though I’m skeptical he makes it through there).
We also have Leonardo DiCaprio for Don’t Look Up. I’m not as high on the film as some other prognosticators, but laudatory screenings could change that dynamic. There’s also Adam Driver for House of Gucci and Cooper Hoffman for the aforementioned Pizza. With all these gentlemen, time will tell and we won’t have to wait long.
Back to the performances we do know about. Nicolas Cage garnered some of the best notices of his career for Pig. He’ll have internet chatter on his side but I wouldn’t bet the farm on him making it. Speaking of web love, expect the same for Timothee Chalamet (Dune). I believe he’s less likely than Cage. Same goes for former MTV veejay Simon Rex in Red Rocket.
Belfast is the frontrunner for Best Picture and its quartet of supporting thespians (Caitriona Balfe, Judi Dench, Jamie Dornan, Ciaran Hinds) could all show up in their races. The film’s young lead Jude Hill is more of a long shot. Clifton Collins Jr. drew raves beginning at Sundance with Jockey. I would say Sony Pictures Classics needs to up their game with his campaign for him to enter this derby. There’s also a slight chance that Amir Jadidi could be a factor in A Hero (which could take International Feature Film).
For now, I’m sticking with two actors that I’ve had in my five for awhile. Peter Dinklage has gotten plenty of Emmy love for his Game of Thrones stretch and his musical and dramatic stylings in Cyrano could cause the Academy to take note.
Even though he won just two years back for Joker, Joaquin Phoenix could be up again for C’Mon C’Mon if none of the unseen candidates rise in the polls.
Bottom line: Smith (especially), Cumberbatch, and Washington are all relatively safe at press time. About a dozen others will vie for slots four and five. Here’s where I have it at this beginning of November time frame:
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
Wes Anderson’s latest comedy The French Dispatch is being delivered to 52 theaters on October 22nd before its wide release the following weekend. The anthology pic arrives a year after its COVID delay. It received a premiere at the Cannes Film Festival over the summer.
Like most of his unique tales, Dispatch features a massive cast (many of whom have appeared in multiple previous works from the director). That list includes Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Frances McDormand, Timothee Chalamet, Lyna Khoudri, Mathieu Amalric, Stephen Park, Owen Wilson, Anjelica Huston, Elisabeth Moss, Liev Schrieber, Willem Dafoe, Edward Norton, Fisher Stevens, Henry Winkler, Bob Balaban, Rupert Friend, Griffin Dunne, and three actors from No Time to Die (Lea Seydoux, Jeffrey Wright, and Christoph Waltz).
There is no question that Anderson has an ardent fanbase. However, there’s some drawbacks. Reviews are not quite up to the level of other features like Moonrise Kingdom or The Grand Budapest Hotel. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 79% and it is not thought to be an awards contender. That’s unlike his previous live-action film Hotel, which was nominated for nine Oscars and won four. It ended up with $59 million domestically after a long and leggy run in multiplexes. This might be fortunate to nab a couple of tech nods from the Academy.
Dispatch‘s wide release on October 29th comes with caveats in terms of my prediction. I have yet to see a theater count and that could easily alter my projection once known. However, I’m leaning towards this being one of Anderson’s lesser earning titles. This is somewhat of a placeholder estimate, but I’ll say $3-5 million seems likeliest.
The French Dispatch opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
Coming nearly a year after its anticipated arrival, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune is out in theaters and HBO Max on October 22. The sci-fi epic, with a budget of at least $165 million, comes with high hopes from Warner Bros (so much so that Part One follows its title). Based on Frank Herbert’s 1965 novel (beloved by genre fans), this is its second adaptation behind the 1984 version helmed by David Lynch. Arrival and Blade Runner 2049 maker Villeneuve employs a sprawling cast including Timothee Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, Oscar Isaac, Josh Brolin, Zendaya, Stellan Skarsgard, Dave Bautista, Jason Momoa, and Javier Bardem.
Critical reaction is mostly strong as it stands at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes. Dune is expected to contend for numerous Oscars including Picture and Director and multiple tech races. It could easily lead next year’s ceremony in terms of nominations. Reviews all seem to agree on one item: that it’s meant to be watched on the big screen. The studio has still stuck to its 2021 strategy of simultaneously premiering their product in multiplexes and HBO’s streaming service.
Sci-fi fans have been breathlessly awaiting Dune for years. This is nothing new to Villeneuve as the same could be said for 2017’s Blade Runner follow-up. However, it debuted to a disappointing $32.7 million and failed to reach $100 million domestically (despite similarly solid reviews).
Could the same fate await Dune? That’s definitely a possibility. Beyond its core audience (which is fairly sizable), this could struggle to find a younger crowd. We have seen this year that they are the driving force for pleasing returns in the COVID era market.
If No Time to Die could manage just $55 million and with the inevitability that some fans will opt for home viewing, I have a tough time envisioning Dune majorly surpassing expectations. That’s about $40 million and I do believe the decent buzz and event picture status should put it right in that range of mid 30s for the floor and high 40s (maybe even $50 million) for the ceiling.
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