Tag: The Visit

Old Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (07/21): I am revising my Old prediction down from $22.8 million to $19.8 million

What will be the ending to the next M. Night Shyamalan opening weekend story? That’s a tough one with Old, the filmmaker’s latest thriller debuting July 23rd. Based on a graphic novel, the pic places its cast in a beach setting where they inexplicably begin rapidly aging. That’s about the biggest nightmare Hollywood can imagine and Universal Pictures is banking that the horror will translate onscreen. The cast includes Gael Garcia Bernal, Vicky Krieps, Eliza Scanlen, Alex Woolf, Abbey Lee, Rufus Sewell, Ken Leung, and Embeth Davidtz.

Over the past six years, Shyamalan has experienced a career resurgence with his budgets getting lower and his grosses far exceeding the price tag. 2015’s The Visit took in a surprising $25 million out of the gate ($65 million overall domestic gross). 2017’s Split started off with a cool $40 million ($138 million haul) and its 2019 follow-up Glass earned $46 million over the long MLK frame with a $111 million eventual take.

In a summer filled with sequels and reboots, Old could have the advantage (despite being based on a property) of looking like something fresh. You could even say – what’s Old is new. The trailers and TV spots are pretty effective. It is competing for some of the same audience with the G.I. Joe franchise overhaul Snake Eyes. However, my gut says this could manage to overshadow it.

The aforementioned predecessors from the director kicked off in a less competitive timeframe. I still believe Old gets pretty close to the $25 million achieved by The Visit and gives it a solid chance at topping charts over Snake Eyes.

Old opening weekend prediction: $19.8 million

For my Snake Eyes prediction, click here:

Snake Eyes Box Office Prediction

Split Movie Review

Over the past two decades, audiences have witnessed the many personalities of director M. Night Shyamalan in his works. For instance, there’s his previous effort The Visit where I wrote that he seemed to thumbing his nose at both critics and moviegoers based on their disappointment for some of his films. There’s the Shyamalan that was heavily influenced by Spielberg and Hitchcock that contributed to high marks like The Sixth Sense and Signs. We have the comic book aficionado that made Unbreakable pretty special. And there’s whatever was going on his head while writing The Happening and its killer trees and pro hot dog chatter.

With Split, Shyamalan seems in the mode of returning to his former box office glories by throwing in everything that made his blockbusters break through. Not all those traits work, but they’re present in nostalgia inducing manner. There’s the stilted dialogue and characters reacting to dangerous situations that seem off kilter. On the other hand, there are occasional moments of truly well crafted tension. Some of the actors miss the mark, but you wonder if it’s because that’s how Night directed them. Finally, there’s one performance that is pretty awesome to behold and, yes, a major surprise ending that is quite satisfying.

Welcome back to the mixed bag of a world that Shyamalan creates with his pen. Split opens with three teen girls leaving a birthday party. Two of them (Haley Lu Richardson, Jessica Sula) are your typical kids while Casey (Anya Taylor-Joy) is more of an outsider. Quickly into our screen time, they are kidnapped by Dennis (James McAvoy), who locks them in a small yet very clean room as he’s got serious OCD. Then, the trio finds out they were also nabbed by Patricia, a proper sounding English older lady. They were also taken by Hedwig, a shy nine year old boy. There are others as these personalities (23 of them) all live inside the head of McAvoy’s Kevin and Casey and her sort of friends have to figure out a way for one of them to let them out.

The action in Split is not confined to Kevin/Dennis/Patricia/Hedwig’s choice of holding rooms. On the outside, he is mostly Barry, an insecure fashion designer who visits his psychiatrist Dr. Fletcher (Betty Buckley). The doctor is an expert in these types of disorders who believes those suffering from it behold powers that are beyond human. And when Kevin warns of a 24th person in that head called The Beast, Dr. Fletcher’s theories may get a chance to be proven right or wrong.

McAvoy is given the chance to play in a universe that any actor would cherish and he’s impressive. There are scenes when he transitions from person to person that are quite enjoyable to watch. It really is his show, though Casey’s character is given a backstory via flashback that helps flesh out her perspective on everything.

There are times in Split that feel like vintage Shyamalan, but they come in infrequent spurts. My criticism here is simple, other than the dodgy dialogue we’ve come to anticipate even in his finest pictures. Split just really isn’t that scary or suspenseful while you’re watching it. Some of the best parts are when the director wants you to laugh… intentionally I think.

I certainly won’t spoil the ending, but I will say that it culminated this otherwise so-so experience with an unexpected surprise. In truth, I’ve thought more about what happened in the last 30 seconds than in the two previous hours and what it could mean in the future. That doesn’t excuse its faults, but at least Night wraps it up on that George Costanza high note.

**1/2 (out of four)

Split Box Office Prediction

The cinematic horror stylings of M. Night Shyamalan returns to theaters next weekend when Split debuts. His latest fright fest stars James McAvoy as a man with multiple personalities who kidnaps three teen girls. Anya Taylor-Joy and Betty Buckley are among the costars acting alongside all of McAvoy’s characters.

Split screened at a couple of film festivals during the fall and early word suggests a return to form for the auteur. The current Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 82%. Of course, Shyamalan’s filmography is a checkered one. He sprinted out of the gate with commercial and critical hits such as The Sixth Sense, Unbreakable, and Signs. Disappointments from critics and audiences would come with Lady in the Water, The Happening, and After Earth. His previous effort, 2015’s The Visit, drew mixed reaction from reviewers and crowds yet it debuted with a better than anticipated $25 million weekend and $65M overall domestic take.

In fact, the smallest first weekend from the director since he’s become a celebrity in his own right remains Lady in the Water at $18 million. I incorrectly predicted The Visit would open under that over one year ago and was proven wrong.

With solid reviews and effective TV spots and trailers, I’ll predict Split gets over that $18 million figure and just shy of $20M.

Split opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million

For my xXx: Return of Xander Cage prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/10/xxx-return-of-xander-cage-box-office-prediction/

For my The Founder prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/11/the-founder-box-office-prediction/

For my 20th Century Women prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/12/20th-century-women-box-office-prediction/

For my The Resurrection of Gavin Stone prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/12/the-resurrection-of-gavin-stone-box-office-prediction/

The Visit Movie Review

M. Night Shyamalan burst onto the film scene with a trilogy of highly effective pictures that had critics and audiences alike cheering – The Sixth Sense, Unbreakable, and Signs. There were comparisons to Hitchcock and Spielberg. The acclaim was earned. With 2004’s The Village, while still a hit, crowds and those like me who write about the medium began to tire of the shocking twist endings and stilted dialogue that populate his efforts (I actually dug The Village quite a bit). Two years later, with Lady in the Water, his fans had tuned out and it was to understand why with that bizarre picture (it’s a disappointment not without some merits in my estimate). 2008’s The Happening was where a new level of low came with the director. It was the first one to me that truly encapsulated the bad M. Night with very little of the good. Worse yet, it was boring.

His return to the genre that made him beloved and also scorned is The Visit. It takes the common occurrence of visiting the grandparents for a week to some serious extremes. There is laughable dialogue that I’m firmly convinced its writer/director wants us to be chuckling at. There are also some genuinely “boo” suspenseful moments. And in what we’ve come to also suspect from its maker, there are decisions with character traits that are just baffling. Some of the other lines intended for comedy fall incredibly flat. The teenage characters don’t sound like teenagers when they speak. And Shyamalan seems to almost be thumbing his nose at the audience with the choice to shoot in found footage form, which has become horror’s most overused cliche in recent times.

The Visit takes a teenage sister (Deanna Dunagan) who loves to shoot her video camera (hence our well worn found footage) and her younger brother (Peter McRobbie) to grandma and grandpa’s remote Pennsylvania home for a week. The catch? They’ve never met them. Their single mom (Kathryn Hahn) had a fall out with them years ago and is reluctant to let her kids spend time there. This leads to the other catch: Grandma (Olivia DeJonge) and Grandpa (Ed Oxenbould) might just be completely bonkers. It starts out somewhat slowly (per usual in this director’s way): creepy games of hide and seek turn to the Grandma’s night terrors or “sun downing” (which would’ve been a cooler title) to… well, let’s just say adult diapers are involved.

There’s the patented Night twist that you’ll see coming, I suspect. Yet that’s not really the point here. With The Visit, Shyamalan seems to be parodying the type of picture he’s become famous and infamous for. And there’s no doubt that some of this worked for me and did indeed produce a knowing smile and raised arm hair from time to time. There’s also no doubt that I found a lot of The Visit to be just way too self-aware and poorly written. Just because it might be sending up found footage doesn’t make it any less cheap looking and, truth be told, we’ve seen it used more effectively. That precocious younger brother fancies himself a rapper and it’s perhaps even more grating than you might be imagining. Shyamalan directed one child actor to an Oscar nomination with his breakout, but the adolescent youngsters here are serviceable at best and horrifying when hip hop is brought into it. It’s DeJonge who brings the creepy goods and those arm hair moments are almost solely due to her.

We have witnessed this filmmaker give us examples of horror/suspense that are first rate and low rate. The Visit, with its tongue in cheek, is written in a manner that’s just as bizarre as the movie’s hosts. There were times I felt like I was right there with what Night was trying to accomplish with the so bad it’s good vibe and others where I felt baffled. It belongs nowhere near what Shyamalan has accomplished early in his career nor in the basement with The Happening (or his later sci efforts The Last Airbender and After Earth). My best compliment for this all over the place experience? This particular happening isn’t boring.

**1/2 (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: September 25-27

It could be a highly unpredictable weekend at the box office as three new releases come out and another expands wide. We have Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2, the Anne Hathaway/Robert De Niro comedy The Intern, and long delayed Eli Roth horror pic The Green Inferno. Additionally, Everest expands wide after its impressive roll out on a few hundred IMAX screens this past week. You can find my detailed prediction posts on the three newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/18/hotel-transylvania-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/19/the-intern-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/19/the-green-inferno-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Transylvania should really have no trouble winning the weekend, though I have it pegged to gross less than its predecessor did three years ago. I also look for The Intern to have a healthy debut just under the $20M range.

The big question mark is Everest. I think the range of grosses for its wide release premiere could be as low as $12 million to as high as the mid-20s range. Ultimately I think it reaches a gross somewhere in the high teens for a third place showing.

The Green Inferno looks like a flop and my $2.5 million estimate for it leaves it well outside the top five.

As for holdovers, current champ Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials should lose close to half its opening audience while Johnny Depp’s Black Mass may not fall quite that far.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Hotel Transylvania 2

Predicted Gross: $34.1 million

2. The Intern

Predicted Gross: $19 million

3. Everest

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

4. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 47%)

5. Black Mass

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)

Box Office Results (September 18-20)

YA sequel Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials got off to a commendable start while not reaching the level its predecessor managed a year. Trials earned $30.3 million, a bit below my $33.8M estimate.

Johnny Depp’s acclaimed Whitney Bulger biopic Black Mass (which is earning Oscar buzz for its star) made $22.6 million out of the gate, below my $27.9M prediction. This is still a nice start and I look for it to continue doing well in subsequent weekends.

M. Night Shyamalan’s The Visit was third in weekend two with $11.5 million, higher than my $9.7M prognostication. The low budget horror title has taken in $42 million so far.

Last weekend’s champ The Perfect Guy dropped to the four spot with $9.6 million, in line with my $10.2M estimate and its two week total stands at $41 million.

The aforementioned Everest was fifth on an IMAX only limited release with $7.2 million, a tad under my $8.6M forecast. Still, its future is looking pretty bright.

Finally, the faith based thriller Captive with David Oyelowo and Kate Mara stalled even worse than I predicted with just $1.3 million for 11th place. I estimated $2.3 million.

And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 18-20

Two promising box office prospects hit the multiplexes Friday as YA sequel Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Johnny Depp gangster flick Black Mass roll out. On a more limited number of screens, the hostage drama Captive with David Oyelowo and Kate Mara will also debut. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/10/maze-runner-the-scorch-trials-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/10/black-mass-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/11/captive-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Maze Runner should debut on top but I think the race could be closer than anticipated. In fact, my prediction on Scorch Trials is a bit lower than some of my fellow prognosticators. I look for Mass to have a healthy start with its positive buzz that includes Oscar nomination talk for Depp. As for Captive, my $2.3 million prediction on it should leave outside the top five.

As for holdovers, both The Perfect Guy and The Visit premiered to impressive results (more on that below). Look for both to experience hefty declines in weekend two, but they’ve both already proven to be huge hits for their studios.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

**Blogger’s note: I have altered my predictions as of Tuesday, September 15th due to my predicted gross of Everest, which debuts on approximately 500 screens IMAX screens only Friday. I feel that’ll be enough to get it in the top five. My full prediction post on Everest will be posted on blog Tuesday evening.

  1. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trails

Predicted Gross: $33.8 million

2. Black Mass

Predicted Gross: $27.9 million

3. The Perfect Guy

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 60%)

4. The Visit

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (representing a drop of 61%)

5. Everest

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

Box Office Results (September 11-13)

Thriller The Perfect Guy got off to a great start with $25.8 million over the weekend, outpacing my $21.9M prediction. With a tiny $12 million budget, it managed to double its budget in three days.

M. Night Shyamalan found himself in the position of having a hit once again as The Visit followed closely behind in second with $25.4 million, topping my $17M estimate. With an even tinier budget of $5M budget, it quintupled its meager budget and gave its director his first huge hit since The Village over a decade ago.

Faith based drama War Room dropped to third with $7.7 million, a bit shy of my $8.9M prediction. Its three week total stands at a strong $39M.

A Walk in the Woods dropped to fourth with $4.7 million, falling further my $7.7M forecast and it’s made $20M so far.

I incorrectly didn’t list Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation in my estimates but it took fifth place with $4.1 million to bring its cume to $188M.

That’s because I mistakenly believed another faith based pic, 90 Minutes in Heaven, would perform much stronger than it did. While I had it opening third with $10.5 million, it flopped with just $2 million for a weak ninth place showing. Oops.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 11-13

As the fall box office season gets underway, three new titles open Friday: romantic thriller The Perfect Guy, low budget M. Night Shyamalan horror pic The Visit and faith based drama 90 Minutes in Heaven. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions post on each here:

The Perfect Guy Box Office Prediction

The Visit Box Office Prediction

90 Minutes in Heaven Box Office Prediction

I believe the new releases stand a decent chance at filling the top three slots this weekend. As I see it, The Perfect Guy should take the top spot unless The Visit over performs. I could also see The Visit not doing very well and it remains a large question mark. On a far less number of screens than its competitors, 90 Minutes should have a sturdy start but might be a little hindered by the continuing solid performance of the similarly themed War Room.

Speaking of War Room, I believe it and A Walk in the Woods should both experience smallish declines (par for the course on the post Labor Day weekend) and round out the top five. And with that, my predictions:

  1. The Perfect Guy

Predicted Gross: $21.9 million

2. The Visit

Predicted Gross: $17 million

3. 90 Minutes in Heaven

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. War Room

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. A Walk in the Woods

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

Box Office Results (September 4-7)

As expected, the Labor Day weekend was sluggish but there were surprises to be had… particularly in the top two spots. War Room expanded on its screen count and therefore its numbers and unexpectedly took the #1 spot away from three peat champ Straight Outta Compton. Over the four day holiday, it took in $13.3 million to bring its two week tally to $28 million. I only had it earning $7.7 million. Oops

The other pic doing better than expected business: the Robert Redford travel flick A Walk in the Woods which took second with $10.9 million over the weekend and $12.8 million since its Wednesday bow. It greatly surpassed my respective projections of just $4.3 and $5.8 million. Oops again.

Dipping to third was Straight Outta Compton with $10.8 million, under my $14.3 million estimate. Its terrific four week total stands at $149 million. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation was fourth with $9.4 million (I said $9.9M) for an overall $182 million total.

The Transporter: Refueled opened with a whimper at $9 million, a bit under my $10.2M prediction. The Owen Wilson thriller No Escape was sixth with $7 million (just ahead of my $6M estimate) for a $20M take.

And that’s all for now! Until next time…

The Visit Box Office Prediction

There was a time when the name of director M. Night Shyamalan pretty much meant guaranteed box office success, especially in the horror genre. That time was over a decade ago, however, and this Friday’s The Visit will be a true test as to whether his name can still fill seats. It might be somewhat tough.

The good news for distributor Universal Pictures is the budget is reportedly a tiny $5 million and profitability is virtually assured. The creepy tale centers on two kids visiting their possibly crazy grandparents. We’re a ways away from A listers like Bruce Willis, Mel Gibson, Mark Wahlberg, and Will Smith headlining Shyamalan’s offering. The Visit features an unknown cast and is banking solely on bringing in a horror crowd and hoping Night’s name assists.

It was a long time ago that Signs debuted to $60 million and The Village made $50 million out of the gate. The director’s lowest opening was in 2006 with the reviled Lady in the Water, which made $18 million. The Visit could compete with that number and it certainly has the capacity to over perform. Ultimately, though, I see this marking the director’s worst opening for a still rather stellar start considering the mini budget and probably coming in second to competitor The Perfect Guy. 

The Visit opening weekend prediction: $17 million

For my prediction on The Perfect Guy, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/04/the-perfect-guy-box-office-prediction/

For my 90 Minutes in Heaven prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/04/90-minutes-in-heaven-box-office-prediction/