It’s Memorial Day at the box office with Disney looking to dominate the four-day holiday weekend with their live-action rendering of Aladdin starring Will Smith. We also have the superhero horror flick Brightburn and critically acclaimed high school comedy Booksmart. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
There’s little doubt that the Fresh Prince’s genie will open at #1. How much it makes is very much in question. My mid 70s forecast is toward the lower end of estimates. While it’s always risky to underestimate the vaunted Mouse Factory marketing machine, they’ve already had one under performer weeks ago with Dumbo and reaction to this particular remake seems mixed.
Slots 2-4 are likely to be held by holdovers and that starts with John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum after its dynamite debut (more on that below). Its gross is probably a bit front loaded, so a dip over 50% wouldn’t be surprising.
On the other hand, Avengers: Endgame should follow the path of other MCU titles that premiered in late April or early May with a minor drop in the 20s. I have Pokemon Detective Pikachu slated for a mid 30s subtraction.
As for the newcomers, both have breakout potential but I’m hesitant to pull the trigger on either exceeding expectations. Brightburn should fare a bit better than Booksmart, if for no other reason than its higher screen count.
And with that, a top 6 take on my Friday to Monday predictions:
Predicted Gross: $74.8 million
2. John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum
Predicted Gross: $27 million
3. Avengers: Endgame
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million
4. Pokemon Detective Pikachu
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
Box Office Results (May 17–19)
John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum sped to a terrific start and zoomed past most projections, including mine. The Keanu Reeves sequel made $56.8 million compared to my $45.8 million estimate. That sets the franchise record by over $25 million and is good for Mr. Reeves second largest opening ever behind The Matrix Reloaded.
Avengers: Endgame dropped to second after three weeks on top with $29.9 million, in line with my $28.5 million prediction. The massive tally is at $771 million.
In its sophomore outing, Pokemon Detective Pikachu was third with $25.1 million. I was right there at $25.2 million as it approaches the century mark with $94 million.
A Dog’s Journey flopped with just $8 million in fourth compared to my $11.8 million projection. That’s less than half of what predecessor A Dog’s Purpose achieved. Woof.
The Hustle rounded out the top five with $6.1 million (I said $7.1 million) for $23 million overall.
Finally, YA romance The Sun Is Also a Star had a dim start in eighth with just $2.5 million. I went higher at $5.5 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…