Tag: The Lego Movie

Box Office Predictions: March 7-9

Family audiences and action fans are the target audiences this weekend as the animated Mr. Peabody & Sherman and the sequel 300: Rise of an Empire premiere in theaters. It is likely to be a very tight race between the two pics for the #1 spot. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/mr-peabody-sherman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/300-rise-of-an-empire-box-office-prediction/

As you’ll see, I have Peabody edging out 300, but truth be told – it could easily go either way. As for holdovers, I would expect last weekend’s champ Non-Stop to lose a little less than half its audience. On the other hand, Son of God seems like the type of movie that is frontloaded with its target audience primed to see it during weekend #1. Therefore I expect a drop of over 50%. The competition from Peabody should cause the smash hit LEGO Movie to have its biggest drop yet.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Mr. Peabody & Sherman

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million

2. 300: Rise of an Empire

Predicted Gross: $31.1 million

3. Non-Stop

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Son of God

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (February 28-March 2)

The results from this past weekend represent what I believe is my best weekend of predictin’ in the history of the blog (pat on back). Liam Neeson’s Non-Stop took top honors with $28.8 million – right in line with my $28.2M estimate. At 61, Neeson is still proving himself to be one of the most bankable action stars in the world.

Son of God was runner-up with an impressive $25.6 million, just below my $26.7M prediction. In third after three weeks at #1 was The LEGO Movie with $20.8 million – on pace with my $20.5M projection. The four spot was Kevin Costner’s 3 Days to Kill in its sophomore weekend with $4.9 million, in line with my $5.1M estimate.

The only place I went wrong was not including The Monuments Men in the top five. It took the five spot with $4.9 million. I had Robocop in fifth but it was sixth my $4.5 million (on par with my $4.6M prediction).

So kudos to me for the weekend! Let’s see if my predictions for this upcoming frame are anywhere close.

I’ll have final results on the blog a week from today.

Box Office Predictions: February 28-March 2

This final weekend of February/first weekend of March could provide a real showdown at the box office between Liam Neeson’s action pic Non-Stop and the Biblical pic Son of God. Both could be poised for healthy debut weekends and you can find my detailed predictions posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/23/non-stop-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/23/son-of-god-box-office-prediction/

While my estimates put the newbies at spots 1 and 2 – if both underwhelm, it could open the door for a fourth week at the top spot for The Lego Movie. The rest of the top five is likely to be filled with holdover action flicks suffering pretty large drops.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Non-Stop

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

2. Son of God

Predicted Gross: $26.7 milion

3. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $20.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. 3 Days to Kill

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Robocop

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (February 21-23)

As for how I did this past weekend, The LEGO Movie did hold #1 for a third frame with $31.3 million, just below my $33.7M estimate. I vastly overestimated how well the rom com About Last Night would hold up in weekend #2. The Kevin Hart flick dropped a steep 70% to $7.5 million, well below my $13.6M prediction. Furthermore, I didn’t give enough credit to Kevin Costner’s 3 Days to Kill. It debuted at second with an OK $12.2 million – well above my modest $7.7M projection. Newcomer Pompeii fared badly with a third place debut at only $10.3 million, below my $13.3M projection. In fourth was Robocop with $9.8 million, in line with $10.4M projection and rounding out the top five was The Monuments Men with $7.9M, under my $10.3M estimate.

As always, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday!

Box Office Predictions: February 21-23

The gladiator action pic Pompeii and Kevin Costner thriller 3 Days to Kill both make their debuts on Friday. Neither is likely to come close to challenging a third weekend for the The LEGO Movie at the top spot. You can find my individual prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/pompeii-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/3-days-to-kill-box-office-prediction/

As mentioned, the animated smash hit Lego Movie should easily coast to weekend #3 at the top of the charts. President’s Day weekend leftovers About Last Night and Robocop should both lose around half their audience while Monuments Men could stay in the top five with a fall in its third weekend that is less than that of its competitors. With my prediction of 3 Days to Kill outside the top five, I’ll project 1-6 this week:

1. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. About Last Night

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)

3. Pompeii

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. Robocop

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. The Monuments Men

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. 3 Days to Kill

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

Box Office Results (February 14-17)

The LEGO Movie held up fantastically in its sophomore frame over the holiday weekend with $62.4 million, besting my estimate of $54.2M. I correctly called the Kevin Hart rom com About Last Night to debut second, but its $27.8 million opening fell below my generous $36.8M prediction. Still, it continues an impressive run of box office dominance in 2014 by Mr. Hart. Robocop had a so-so debut at third. Its $25 million Friday-to-Monday take was right on par with my $24.9M estimate, but its $30 million six-day haul (it opened Wednesday) fell below my projection of $36.8M. The Monuments Men was fourth with $17.9 million – holding up better than my $15.1M projection. Newcomer Endless Love was in the five spot with $14.4 million, a bit below my $16.1M estimate. Finally, Winter’s Tale with Colin Farrell was the big loser of the weekend – opening in 8th place with a weak $8 million, far below my $18.4M prediction.

That’s all for now, folks! I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday.

Box Office Predictions: February 7-9

The Lego Movie should be poised to take the box office by storm next weekend and end the three week reign of Ride Along at the top spot. In fact, there are two other newbies entering the marketplace on Friday as George Clooney’s The Monuments Men and Vampire Academy both debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/the-lego-movie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/the-monuments-men-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/vampire-academy-box-office-prediction/

My estimates reflect a belief that Lego will open with very healthy results while The Monuments Men will have a middling premiere with a rather weak opening for Vampire Academy. The new pictures should occupy the top three slots with holdovers Ride Along and Frozen in a tight race for fourth place.

And, with that, my predictions for the upcoming weekend’s top five:

1. The Lego Movie

Predicted Gross: $54.2 million

2. The Monuments Men

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

3. Vampire Academy

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

4. Ride Along

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 25%)

Box Office Results (January 31-February 2)

The Super Bowl weekend brought an expected quiet frame at multiplexes. As predicted, Ride Along held #1 for its third weekend with $12 million, just above my $11.3M estimate. Disney’s Frozen, with its new sing-along version, was second with $8.9 million – below my $10.7M projection.

The Zac Efron comedy That Awkward Moment took third with an OK $8.7 million for its debut, barely above my $8M projection. The Nut Job was fourth with $7.2 million, right in line with my $7.5M estimate. Lone Survivor took fifth with $7 million (I had it outside the top five).

Where I went wrong was giving Jason Reitman’s Labor Day too much credit. The Kate Winslet/Josh Brolin drama managed only a seventh place debut with $5.1 million, well below my $8.8M projection.

As always, I’ll have early updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Monday. And on Sunday – I’ll have projections for all four openings over Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend: Robocop, About Last Night, Endless Love, and Winter’s Tale. Until next time!

The Lego Movie Box Office Prediction

2013 was a huge year for animated pictures and now the first weekend in February brings The Lego Movie, a high-profile offering from Warner Bros. based on that line of toys that we all grew up and played with. Lego features the voices of plenty of actors we know including Will Ferrell, Chris Pratt, Elizabeth Banks, Will Arnett, Charlie Day, Morgan Freeman, Liam Neeson, Channing Tatum, and Jonah Hill.

While The Lego Movie is unlikely to reach the heights of Despicable Me 2, Frozen, or Monsters University from last year, it’s reasonable to speculate than an opening similar to Wreck It Ralph is in the cards. That title opened to $49 million in November 2012. I believe the widespread familiarity of the pic’s subject matter and its robust marketing campaign may actually propel it a bit higher and over the $50M mark. This is the type of animated flick that parents probably won’t mind taking the kiddos to and I’m predicting stellar results.

The Lego Movie opening weekend prediction: $54.2 million

For my prediction on The Monuments Men, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/the-monuments-men-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Vampire Academy, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/02/vampire-academy-box-office-prediction/