Tiffany Haddish and Rose Byrne headline the business themed comedy Like a Boss next weekend as Paramount Pictures hopes many girls will make a trip to view it. Originally slated for release last summer, Boss is directed by Miguel Arteta with a supporting cast including Jennifer Coolidge, Billy Porter, and Salma Hayek.
It’s been over two years since Haddish broke through in a major way with Girls Trip and her lucky streak continued with Night School with Kevin Hart. However, things have slowed down a bit as of late with Nobody’s Fool (which grossed $14 million for its start). Then there was last year’s crime drama flop The Kitchen with Byrne’s Spy costar Melissa McCarthy.
The lack of much comedic competition should help a bit, but buzz seems to fairly muted here. My guess is this makes a bit under what Fool accomplished and struggles to hit teens.
Like a Boss opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million
For the second weekend in a row, we have a quintet of new titles populating the marketplace. And like those previous five pictures, all could struggle to break the $20 million mark with some failing to reach double digits. We have the animated sequel TheAngryBirdsMovie2, raunchy preteen comedy GoodBoys, shark sequel 47MetersDown: Uncaged, British musical dramedy BlindedbytheLight, and Richard Linklater directed mystery comedy Where’dYouGo, Bernadette with Cate Blanchett all out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
The Birds follow-up debuts tomorrow in theaters. Even with that early start, I believe the Friday to Sunday traditional gross should be enough for it to fly into the top spot. That said, I have it well under the $33 million debut of its 2016 predecessor.
The earnings of Boys and Meters might be similar, but my projection puts the former ahead. There could be a legit battle between these two newcomers with the third frame of Hobbs & Shaw, the sophomore frame of ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark, and the fifth weekend of TheLionKing. In other words, the placing of the top five could be extremely fluid.
I’m anticipating mid single digits for both Blinded and Bernadette, leaving them well outside the top five and behind DoraandtheLostCityofGold and OnceUponaTimeinHollywood.
So while this column is normally estimating the top half of the top 10, I’m doubling it given all the new product:
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $25.4 million (Tuesday to Sunday)
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
3. Hobbs & Shaw
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million
5. 47MetersDown: Uncaged
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
Predicted Gross: $10 million
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
10. Where’dYouGo, Bernadette
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Hobbs&Shaw parked in first for the second weekend with $25.2 million, a smidge below my $27.5 million forecast. The two week tally stands at $108 million.
In a weekend where I assumed DoraandtheLostCityofGold would fare best among the five newcomers, it was ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark achieving that status. It exceeded most expectations at $20.9 million, well beyond my $14.3 million take.
TheLionKing was third with $20.2 million. My prediction? $20.2 million! It now is Disney’s largest earning live action title at $473 million.
Aforementioned Dora was fourth with a middling $17.4 million, falling below my projection of $19.7 million.
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood hit the century mark and rounded out the top five. Earning $11.6 million (I said $11.3 million), the total is a cool $100 million.
TheArtofRacingintheRain premiered in sixth with a meh $8.1 million. Good news for me for the second time as I said $8.1 million.
Melissa McCarthy and Tiffany Haddish learned audiences wouldn’t turn out for them in a crime thriller. The poorly reviewed TheKitchen was seventh with just $5.5 million compared to my more generous $8.3 million prediction.
Finally, BrianBanks opened in 11th with $2.1 million. I was close at $2.3 million.
Blogger’s Note (08/07): My ScaryStories prediction has risen from $10.7 million to $14.3 million
After several weeks of one giant blockbuster hopeful debuting and having the weekend to itself, a quintet of mid tier titles open in this second weekend of August. We have the kid friendly DoraandtheLostCityofGold based on the Nickelodeon series, PG-13 horror flick ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark, Melissa McCarthy/Tiffany Haddish crime thriller TheKitchen, dog tale TheArtofRacingintheRain, and wrongful imprisonment drama BrianBanks all out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all of them here:
Some weekends, it’s fairly easy to project the order of the top five. This isn’t one of them. A couple of things seem highly likely. After a decent start that was still on the bottom end of expectations, Hobbs&Shaw should manage to repeat in first place. I will say a drop of over 50% is where I see it landing in the sophomore frame.
DoraandtheLostCityofGold seems poised to have to biggest premiere of the five newbies. However, my high teens projection puts it in third behind TheLionKing.
I have ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark, TheKitchen, and TheArtofRacingintheRain all in the high single digits to low double digits range and all behind the third weekend of OnceUponaTimeinHollywood.
As for BrianBanks, its lack of promotion and lowly 1500 theater count means my $2.3 million prediction means it shouldn’t even compete for the top five.
So on this weekend of multiple new releases, my top seven take:
Predicted Gross: $27.5 million
Predicted Gross: $20.2 million
Predicted Gross: $19.7 million
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
FastandFurious spin-off Hobbs&Shaw cruised over holdover competition as anticipated, but it couldn’t match the starting earnings of the last several traditional franchise entries. It took in $60 million, under my take of $72.6 million.
TheLionKing was second after two weeks of dominance with $38.5 million, right on pace with my $38.7 million projection. The massive total stands at $431 million.
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood was third in weekend #2 with $20 million, in line with my $20.7 million prediction. The two week haul is $78 million.
Spider–Man: FarFromHome took fourth with $7.9 million (I said $7.1 million) for $360 million overall.
ToyStory4 rounded out the top five with $7.3 million (I was slightly lower with $6.6 million) for a take of $410 million.
Melissa McCarthy and Tiffany Haddish go out of their comedic comfort zones next weekend with the release of TheKitchen. The crime thriller casts the two performers alongside Elisabeth Moss as the wives of incarcerated gangsters who take over Mob operations in New York. The late 70s set pic marks the directorial debut of Andrea Berloff and is based on a comic book miniseries. Costars include Domhnall Gleeson, James Badge Dale, Brian d’Arcy James, Margo Martindale, Common, and Bill Camp.
If McCarthy and Haddish were headlining a high profile slapstick comedy, my estimate for TheKitchen would likely be considerably more (easily double). However, I’m skeptical that a wide audience is eager to see them in this. If solid reviews pop up in the coming days, that could potentially change the dynamic a bit. I think it’s going to have difficulty reaching double digits.
TheKitchen opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million
For my DoraandtheLostCityofGold prediction, click here: