Nearly four decades after Disney told the tale of Mowgli’s adventures in animated form, the studio continues its retellings of their catalogue in mostly CG form with TheJungleBook. The result is a satisfying effort that doesn’t reach the level of a true classic – just as the 1967 effort didn’t either. Still, it’s an unquestionable triumph of what technology can accomplish these days. In an age where talking animals have stampeded multiplexes, these ones look pretty darn amazing.
Jon Favreau has been tasked with bringing back Mowgli (Neel Sethi in an adequate child performance) and his story of being raised in the jungle. He’s part of a wolf pack that has nothing to do with Zach Galifianakis as he’s actually been raised by wolves. There’s also his panther mentor Bagheera (voiced by Ben Kingsley) who encourages our young protagonist to find others like him (you know, people) after his life is threatened by the fierce tiger Shere Khan (Idris Elba, enunciating menace expertly).
This, of course, sets our hero off on an adventure where he comes into contact with many of the inhabitants of the vast wild lands he calls home. He partners up with honey grubbing bear Baloo (Bill Murray), has a frightening encounter with snake Kaa (Scarlett Johansson), and is taunted by apish thug King Louie (Christopher Walken).
The voiceover casting here is impeccable and adds a lot to these proceedings. Song and dance man Walker gets a solo take on “I Wan’na Be Like You” and “The Bare Necessities” is figured in. Truthfully, the musical numbers seem a little tacked on, but they’re not around long enough to really complain about. Plus the kids should dig them.
TheJungleBook and its message of the dangers of man vs. wild is a familiar one, but we’ve yet to witness it with special effects like these. We are aware Mowgli and the boy playing him probably spent months in front of a green screen. However, we forget it quickly with these ultra photo realistic creatures in front of us and their well cast actors voicing them. This is the biggest accomplishment that Favreau and his team pull off and it’s certainly enough to make this a worthy addition to the Mouse Factory’s long list of verbal beast experiences.
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories are here for your reading pleasure!
The Toronto Film Festival has ferreted out some would-be contenders, most notably Ewan McGregor’s American Pastoral which debuted to lackluster reviews. I had it at #9 last week for a Best Picture and it’s nowhere to be seen in the Top 25 now.
As I’ll do every week, I’m listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture along with 15 for Director, the Acting Races, and the Screenplay categories. I’m also noting the movement in the rankings among the contenders and what and who has dropped out.
Let’s go to it:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1) La Land Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Silence (PR: 3)
4) Fences (PR: 4)
5) Moonlight (PR: 5)
6) Loving (PR: 6)
7) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
8) Lion (PR: 11)
9) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10) Arrival (PR: 13)
11) Hidden Figures (PR: 15)
12) Jackie (PR: 12)
13) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
14) Sully (PR: 16)
15) Hell or High Water (PR: 18)
16) 20th Century Women (PR: 14)
17) Allied (PR: 19)
18) Passengers (PR: 17)
19) Live by Night (PR: 25)
20) The Founder (PR: 21)
21) The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
22) Collateral Beauty (PR: 23)
23) Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
24) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
25) The Jungle Book (PR: 22)
DROPPED OUT:
American Pastoral, Moana, Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 5)
5) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
7) Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
9) Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)
10) Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 11)
11) Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 14)
12) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)
13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
14) Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
15) Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)
2) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
3) Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4) Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 6)
5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 8)
7) Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 9)
8) Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 4)
9) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
10) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield (PR: 11)
12) Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)
13) Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)
15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2) Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)
3) Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 2)
4) Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
9) Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)
10) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
11) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)
12) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
13) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 12)
14) Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 10)
15) Sally Hawkins, Maudie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
2) Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
4) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 1)
5) Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 14)
7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
9) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
10) Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)
11) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
12) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked in Supporting)
13) Billy Nighy, Their Finest (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)
15) Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women
Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
John Legend, La La Land
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
4) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
5) Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
7) Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
8) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
9) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 5)
10) Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 14)
11) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 8)
12) Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: Not Ranked)
13) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
14) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 11)
15) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (13)
Dropped Out:
Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
Laura Dern, The Founder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) La La Land (PR: 3)
2) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
3) Moonlight (PR: 2)
4) Loving (PR: 4)
5) Jackie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6) 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7) Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
8) The Lobster (PR: 8)
9) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
10) Zootopia (PR: 11)
11) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
12) Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 14)
13) Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
14) Passengers (PR: 13)
15) Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Founder
Gold
Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Fences (PR: 1)
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
4) Silence (PR: 4)
5) Lion (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6) Arrival (PR: 8)
7) Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8) Sully (PR: 12)
9) The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)
10) Elle (PR: 11)
11) Love & Friendship (PR: 9)
12) Live by Night (PR: 13)
13) Denial (PR: 14)
14) The Jungle Book (PR: 15)
15) Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
American Pastoral
And there you have it, Oscar watchers! I’ll be back with my weekly predictions on September 22nd…
As readers of my blog may have seen last week, I made my first initial round of Oscar predictions last week. Now… we move onto the next phase. Every Thursday, I will be giving my weekly updated Oscar predictions in the following categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.
When we get into the later part of the year, the list will expand to include other categories. Each Thursday, I will list 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 possibilities for the other races and you’ll be able to track whether the picks go up or down on a weekly basis.
Please note that if I rank something #1 in a certain race, it doesn’t mean I think it’ll win. It means I think its nomination is currently the most probable. The film festival season (especially Toronto) can and probably will alter some of these picks even next week.
Let’s get right to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1) La Land Land
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Silence
4) Fences
5) Moonlight
6) Loving
7) Manchester by the Sea
8) Nocturnal Animals
9) American Pastoral
Other Possibilities:
10) The Birth of a Nation
11) Lion
12) Jackie
13) Arrival
14) 20th Century Women
15) Hidden Figures
16) Sully
17) Passengers
18) Hell or High Water
19) Allied
20) Moana
21) The Founder
22) The Jungle Bok
23) Collateral Beauty
24) Gold
25) Live by Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Martin Scorsese, Silence
4) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
5) Denzel Washington, Fences
Other Possibilities:
6) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
7) Jeff Nichols, Loving
8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
9) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
10) Denis Villenueve, Arrival
11) Garth Davis, Lion
12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
13) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
14) Pablo Larrain, Jackie
15) Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Denzel Washington, Fences
2) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
3) Joel Edgerton, Loving
4) Michael Keaton, The Founder
5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Other Possibilities:
6) Tom Hanks, Sully
7) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
8) Ryan Gosling, La La Land
9) Dev Patel, Lion
10) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield
12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
14) Andrew Garfield, Silence
15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Emma Stone, La La Land
2) Viola Davis, Fences
3) Natalie Portman, Jackie
4) Ruth Negga, Loving
5) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Other Possibilities:
6) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals
7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle
8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
9) Amy Adams, Arrival
10) Rooney Mara, Una
11) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
12) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers
13) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
14) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
15) Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
2) Liam Neeson, Silence
3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
5) Stephen Henderson, Fences
Other Possibilities:
6) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
8) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
9) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
10) Timothy Spall, Denial
11) Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women
12) Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
13) John Legend, La La Land
14) Aaron Eckhart, Sully
15) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals
4) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold
Other Possibilities:
6) Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
7) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
8) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
9) Nicole Kidman, Lion
10) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
11) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan
12) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
13) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty
14) Margo Martindale, The Hollars
15) Laura Dern, The Founder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Manchester by the Sea
2) Moonlight
3) La La Land
4) Loving
5) Jackie
Other Possibilities:
6) 20th Century Women
7) Hell or High Water
8) The Lobster
9) The Birth of a Nation
10) The Founder
11) Zootopia
12) Gold
13) Passengers
14) Rules Don’t Apply
15) Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Fences
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Nocturnal Animals
4) Silence
5) American Pastoral
Other Possibilities:
6) Lion
7) Hidden Figures
8) Arrival
9) Love & Friendship
10) The Girl on the Train
11) Elle
12) Sully
13) Live by Night
14) Denial
15) The Jungle Book
And that’ll do it for now, folks! My weekly updates will be back next Thursday…
The Disney live-action remake train keep rolling along next weekend as Pete’s Dragon debuts in theaters. The Mouse Factory has found great success in the past couple of years taking their storied animated hits of decades past and repackaging and re-imagining them with real actors and tons of CG effects.
Pete’s Dragon, however, is a slightly different story. Unlike Maleficent, Cinderella, and The Jungle Book (and next year’s Beauty and the Beast for that matter), the pic this is based on is not considered a classic. The Disney Dragon ‘toon opened in 1977 at a time when the studio was in a downturn in their animation department. It was only a mild box office performer and reviews weren’t too strong.
The fact that Disney has been on a roll lately should help Pete and his magical dragon change the narrative somewhat with this property. David Lowery (best known for directing the low budget indie drama Ain’t Them Bodies Saints) is behind the camera. Oakes Fegley plays the title character (the Pete part) while the dragon is handled by Weta Digital. Costars include Bryce Dallas Howard, Robert Redford, Wes Bentley, and Karl Urban. Early reviews have been mostly positive with an 81% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Let’s start here: this has no real chance of reaching the heights of the live action reboots before it. 2014’s Maleficent made $69 million for its start. Last year’s Cinderella earned $67 million. This spring’s The Jungle Book made $103 million. Dragon may be lucky to make half of any of those titles in its opening. Disney should be pretty happy if this manages to top $35 million, but my prediction reflects a belief that just over/under $30 million is the more likely scenario.
Pete’s Dragon opening weekend prediction: $29.8 million
Today we reach the final installment of my listing of the Top 25 Highest Grossing Actresses in box office history with the top five!
Here are the five ladies that have grossed the most stateside:
5. Julia Roberts
Career Earnings: $2.7 billion
Franchises: The Ocean’s pictures
Highest Grossing Picture: Ocean’s Eleven (2001) – $183 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 11 (Ocean’s Eleven, Ocean’s Twelve, Pretty Woman, Runaway Bride, My Best Friend’s Wedding, Erin Brockovich, Hook, Notting Hill, Valentine’s Day, Sleeping with the Enemy, The Pelican Brief)
Lowest Grosser: Fireflies in the Garden (2011) – $70,000
Overall Rank: 30
4. Helena Bonham Carter
Career Earnings: $2.7 billion
Franchises: Harry Potter, Alice in Wonderland
Highest Grossing Picture: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011) – $381 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 9 (Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Alice in Wonderland, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Cinderella, Planet of the Apes, Les Miserables, The King’s Speech)
Lowest Grosser: The Theory of Flight (1998) – $73,000
Overall Rank: 28
3. Cate Blanchett
Career Earnings: $2.8 billion
Franchises: Lord of the Rings, The Hobbit
Highest Grossing Picture: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003) – $377 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 10 (Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Rings, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Cinderella, How to Train Your Dragon 2, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Robin Hood, The Aviator)
Lowest Grosser: Little Fish (2006) – $8,000
Overall Rank: 27
2. Cameron Diaz
Career Earnings: $3 billion
Franchises: Charlie’s Angels, Shrek
Highest Grossing Picture: Shrek 2 (2004) – $441 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 11 (Shrek, Shrek 2, Shrek the Third, Shrek Forever After, There’s Something About Mary, My Best Friend’s Wedding, Charlie’s Angels, Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle, The Mask, Vanilla Sky, Bad Teacher)
Lowest Grosser: Head Above Water (1997) – $32,000
Overall Rank: 19
Scarlett Johansson
Career Earnings: $3.3 billion
Franchises: Marvel Cinematic Universe
Highest Grossing Picture: The Avengers (2012) – $623 million
Number of $100M+ Earners: 7 (The Avengers, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Iron Man 2, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Captain America: Civil War, The Jungle Book, Lucy)
Lowest Grosser: A Love Song for Bobby Long (2004) – $164,000
Overall Rank: 9
And there you have it, my friends! Your 25 highest grossing females in the history of the movies…
It’s Memorial Day weekend coming up at the summer box office with two high-profile sequels debuting – X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I expect the Mutants to fairly easily top The Mad Hatter, with Apocalypse just edging the century mark for its four-day holiday frame with Looking Glass getting to the mid-60s. That would mean both entries would come in below what their predecessors managed in 2014 and 2010, respectively.
As for holdovers, The Angry Birds Movie should slide to third after a robust 1st place debut (more on that below) with Captain America: Civil War and Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (which struggled this last weekend) rounding out the top five.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the Memorial Day frame which encapsulates my three and four-day forecasts:
X-Men: Apocalypse
Predicted Gross: $82.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $100.4 million (Friday to Monday)
2. Alice Through the Looking Glass
Predicted Gross: $53.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $67.7 million (Friday to Monday)
3. The Angry Birds Movie
Predicted Gross: $20.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.5 million (Friday to Monday)
4. Captain America: Civil War
Predicted Gross: $18.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $22.2 million (Friday to Monday)
5. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.2 million (Friday to Monday)
Box Office Results (May 20-22)
The first feature film based on an app nabbed the #1 spot as The Angry Birds Movie soared to a $38.1 million opening, a bit above my $34.5M projection. This was on the higher end of expectations for the animated pic.
After two weeks on top, Captain America: Civil War slipped to second with $32.9 million, just under my $35.1M forecast for a three-week total of $347M.
The news was not good for Seth Rogen, Zac Efron, and company as Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising grossed an unimpressive $21.7 million for third. I went way over with $38.2M, which I should predicted for those ill-tempered birds. Considering the original made $49M out of the gate, we can safely assume Neighbors 3 won’t happen. This continues a recent trend of comedy sequels (think: Horrible Bosses, Zoolander) under performing.
Despite mostly glowing reviews, The Nice Guys with Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling finished fourth with $11.2 million in its opening, under my $14.4M prediction.
The Jungle Book rounded out the top five with $10.9 million and I predicted… $10.9M! Yay! Almost makes up for the Neighbors thing, but not really…
The third weekend of summer 2016 brings some intrigue into the season as the Seth Rogen/Zac Efron raunchy sequel Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, app based animated tale The Angry Birds Movie, and Russell Crowe/Ryan Gosling action comedy The Nice Guys all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:
All three titles have question marks. All three titles could over perform or under perform. And as I see it, it could create a genuine three-way race for the top spot between Neighbors, Birds, and current two-week champion Captain America: Civil War.
Meanwhile, The Nice Guys has been the beneficiary of solid reviews and a robust marketing campaign and it could certainly rise above the mid-teens gross I have it pegged at. Having said that, it’s difficult to see it moving into the top 3. The Jungle Book should round out the top five.
The closeness of that top 3 reflects my belief that there will only be about a $4 million difference between those pictures, with Neighbors being the victor, Captain America and his avengers friends and foes in second, and those Birds taking third. We shall see how it all shakes out in this highly unpredictable frame which will get even more interesting when potential heavy hitters X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass arrive Memorial Day weekend.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for this weekend:
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
Predicted Gross: $38.2 million
2. Captain America: Civil War
Predicted Gross: $35.1 million (representing a drop of 51%)
3. The Angry Birds Movie
Predicted Gross: $34.5 million
4. The Nice Guys
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
5. The Jungle Book
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 36%)
Box Office Results (May 13-15)
Captain America: The Winter Soldier easily remained #1 (as expected) for the second weekend in a row as it grossed $72.6 million, just under my $76.8M estimate. The Marvel tale has amassed $295M in ten days. It will come in under the number of the two Avengers entries but has already become the highest grossing Cap flick as The Winter Soldier topped out at $259M domestic.
Disney held the runner-up position again as The Jungle Book swung another $17.1 million (in range with my $18.6M prediction) for a five-week total of $311M.
The George Clooney/Julia Roberts thriller Money Monster debuted in third with $14.7 million, managing to come in at the top end of its expectations and managing to top my $12.7M prediction. While it will almost surely drop out of the top five this weekend, look for it to have fairly smallish declines and maybe reach an eventual gross of $50-$60M.
Opening lightly in fourth place was the Kevin Bacon horror flick The Darkness with $4.9 million, just under my $5.6M prognosis. Look for the low-budget Blumhouse offering to be VOD ready soon.
Mother’s Day plummeted in weekend #3 since it didn’t have that whole actual Mother’s Day holiday working this time around. The rom com earned $3.2 million (below my $4.7M forecast) for a total of $28M.
The second weekend of summer should bring further domination from Captain America and his Marvel friends and foes as Civil War will easily reign supreme in weekend #2. There are two new entries: Jodie Foster’s thriller Money Monster starring George Clooney and Julia Roberts and the Blumhouse horror flick The Darkness. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts of each of them right here:
As I see it, Money Monster will likely settle for a third place showing with Mother’s Day and The Darkness fighting it out for the four spot.
Civil War had an impressive opening that still came in below many prognosticators (including this one) were saying… more on that below. These Disney/Marvel ventures typically drop in the mid-high 50s and I expect the same here (the first Avengers pic, it’s worth noting, dropped just 50%).
As for The Jungle Book, I expect a fairly small decline for it (as is typical with many pictures in the second weekend of May) and it should have no problem staying in the runner-up position.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
Captain America: Civil War
Predicted Gross: $76.8 million (representing a drop of 57%)
2. The Jungle Book
Predicted Gross: $18.6 million (representing a drop of 24%)
3. Money Monster
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. The Darkness
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
5. Mother’s Day
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 58%)
Box Office Results (May 6-8)
Summer 2016 started off as so many others have in recent years with Marvel ruling the charts as Captain America: Civil War took in $179.1 million. That’s good for the fifth largest domestic opening of all time, nestled between other MCU entries Avengers: Age of Ultron and Iron Man 3. The debut is just fine, but also on the lower end of its expectations (I put it at $205.6M).
The Jungle Book fell to second after three weeks on top with $24.4 million, in line with my $23.5M projection for a total of $287M.
Perhaps the story of the weekend was Mother’s Day, which jumped 32% in its second weekend to $11 million (more than doubling my meager $5.1M prediction). Lesson to be learned: a movie called Mother’s Day (no matter how bad its reviews may be) is going to do well on Mother’s Day. Its two-week total is $22M and I would expect a pretty big dip next weekend.
The Huntsman Winter’s War was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $4.5M) for a weak $40M haul while Keanu rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I went higher with $4.9M). Keanu‘s total is just $15M. Zootopia was sixth – also with $3.2 million and under my $4.8M prognosis for a $328M tally.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Disney and Marvel once again stake claim to the first weekend of May’s box office spot as they have for six of the last eight years when Captain America: Civil War invades theaters this weekend. It is the first summer movie of the year and it stands an excellent chance at being the biggest of them all. You can read my detailed prediction post on it right here:
My $205.6 million opening weekend prediction puts it at #4 all-time, just below 2012’s The Avengers at $207M and above last year’s Avengers: Age of Ultron, which bowed to $191M. The company it finds itself in between is appropriate as Civil War is essentially a third Avengers pic, with Iron Man, Black Widow, Ant-Man, Spider-Man, and more joining Chris Evans’ title character.
As for holdovers, Disney should have no trouble at the #2 position as The Jungle Book will slip there after three weeks on top. Keanu, The Huntsman Winter’s War, Zootopia and Mother’s Day should make up the rest in a tightly bunched formation that I have with all around $5M.
And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:
Captain America: Civil War
Predicted Gross: $205.6 million
2. The Jungle Book
Predicted Gross: $23.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)
3. Mother’sDay
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. Keanu
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 48%)
5. Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (representing a drop of 14%)
6. The Huntsman Winter’s War
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Box Office Results (April 29-May 1)’
As expected, Disney’s The Jungle Book slayed its competitors for a third weekend on top with $43.7 million (higher than my $37.9M estimate) for a grand total of $253M. The Mouse Factory’s mega-hit will finally be replaced by another Mouse Factory mega-hit this weekend.
And now for the non mega-hits. The Huntsman Winter’s Way remained in second with $9.6 million for a tepid total of $34M. It did manage to top my $8.1M projection.
Newbies did not fare well. Despite mostly positive reviews, Key and Peele’s comedy Keanu managed just $9.4 million in third, well below my generous $17.6M prediction.
The news was even worse for Mother’s Day (which got scathing reviews) which debuted in fourth with only $8.3 million (I said $14.7M).
Barbershop: The Next Cut rounded out with top five with $6 million – in line with my $6.2M estimate for a three-week take of $44M.
The video game inspired Ratchet & Clank disappointed in seventh with only $4.8 million, just under my $5.2M prediction. That meant Disney’s Zootopia (in weekend #8) was sixth with $5.3 million ($323M total) and I incorrectly had it outside the top six.
And that’ll for now, ladies and gentlemen! Until next time…
Three new entries populate the box office this weekend as the Key and Peele comedy Keanu, Jennifer Aniston/Julia Roberts dramedy Mother’s Day, and video game based animated pic Ratchet & Clank open. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
None of them are likely to knock Disney’s The Jungle Book off its perch at #1, which will be the third weekend on top for Mowgli and friends.
Keanu and Mother’s Day should nab the #2 and #3 positions. I have The Huntsman Winter’s War dropping to fourth and it should have a pretty hefty decline after its disappointing opening (more on that below).
I’m not expecting much out of Ratchet & Clank and have it fighting for fifth with the third weekend of Barbershop: The Next Cut and slightly losing that battle.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
The Jungle Book
Predicted Gross: $37.9 million (representing a drop of 38%)
2. Keanu
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
3. Mother’s Day
Predicted Gross: $14.7 million
4. The Huntsman Winter’s War
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)
5. Barbershop: The Next Cut
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 41%)
6. Ratchet & Clank
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (April 22-24)
Disney’s The Jungle Book kept swinging along in its sophomore frame with $61.5 million, just above my $59M projection for a two-week tally of $192M. As mentioned, it should easily retain its #1 status next weekend before another Mouse Factory entry – Captain America: Civil War – does its thing in a few days.
The weekend’s major newcomer was also quite a high-profile flop. The Huntsman Winter’s War, the sort of prequel/sequel to 2012’s hit Snow White and the Huntsman, earned just $19.4 million (lower than my $26.3M estimate). With a reported $115 million budget, War couldn’t overcome toxic reviews and the absence of Kristen Stewart (aka Snow White). The pic may struggle to even reach the $56 million that Snow White made in its opening weekend. Ouch.
Barbershop: The Next Cut was third in its second weekend with $10.5 million, in line with my $11.2M prediction for a total of $35M.
Zootopia was fourth with $6.5 million, higher than my estimate of $5M for a $316M total.
Melissa McCarthy’s The Boss rounded out the top five with $6.2 million, ahead of my $4.9M projection for a three-week take of $49M (pretty low for one of her comedies).
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
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