Tag: The Invite

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 19th Edition

Moviegoers continue to get new looks at potential Oscar contenders in the last couple of weeks since my last predictions. We got our first extended glimpse for Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s Digger and it has sparked plenty of social media chatter for what appears to be a big swing for the filmmaker and Tom Cruise. I could see this going either way. For now I’m keeping it above the line in several of my forecasts.

This is the weekend where Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is dominating the box office with the review embargo having lifted four days ago. The results are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. It is a threat not only to be nominated in Best Picture and Director (which appears automatic) but to win. As I wrote about in my detailed prediction post, the acting races shifted a bit in my calculations. The “in or out” debate regarding Matt Damon continues. However, Anne Hathaway seems to have solidified a spot in Supporting Actress. Her costar Samantha Morton’s inclusion is less likely unless Universal mounts a spirited campaign. As for the Supporting Actors, Robert Pattinson/Tom Holland/John Leguizamo could materialize. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if no consensus emerges among them and they all miss the cut.

Fall festivals are beginning to announce their lineups. The opener at Venice was revealed to be Danny Boyle’s Ink starring Jack O’Connell, Guy Pearce (as media titan Rupert Murdoch), and Claire Foy. This was a surprise considering the release date was expected to be 2027. It was also announced that Netflix will carry U.S. distribution rights. Now it’s a question mark whether the streamer will choose a limited theatrical engagement in 2026 followed by the small screen output. The high profile Venice slot has me leaning toward a premiere before the calendar year closes. It joins my lineup just on the outside looking in with Pearce projected in Supporting Actor.

Speaking of release date uncertainty, we still don’t know if Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven (an adaptation of an Anne Rice novel) is out this year. I’m still listing it, but it drops out of my BP lineup. The beneficiary of that change is Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! which unveiled its first trailer this week. Leading man Pedro Pascal also makes the cut for the first time over Sebastian Stan (Fjord). There’s also chatter that Joel Coen’s Jack of Spades is moving to 2027 and I’m moving it outside of my projections at press time.

The Toronto Film Festival’s lineup is beginning trickle out with Sian Heder’s Being Heumann serving as the opener and Prima Facie with Cynthia Erivo tagged as a gala presentation. Paper Tiger from James Gray, which played at Cannes to a mostly positive though not overwhelming reception, will be first out of the gate at the New York Film Festival.

You can read all the movement from the last two weeks below and expect a fresh update in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Digger (PR: 3) (-2)

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Obsession (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Invite (PR: 17) (+5)

13. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 14) (E)

15. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (-5)

16. The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (-2)

18. Fatherland (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Michael (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Artificial (PR: 18) (-4)

23. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (E)

24. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Josephine (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Werwulf

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javie Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)

12. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell

Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 15) (+8)

8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)

13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Rami Malek, The Man I Love

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (E)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Halle Bailey, The Debut

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-6)

11. Guittarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 14) (+3)

12. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

Jesse Plemons, Digger

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Primetime (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Fatherland (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Drama (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Only Living Pickpocket Living in New York (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 13) (E)

14. Prima Facie (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Minotaur (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Long Winter

Best International Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coward (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mimesis (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Beloved (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2 (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Waves (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. 14th (PR: Not Ranked)

3. One in a Million (PR: 7) (+4)

4. American Doctor (PR: 6) (+2)

5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 2) (-4)

7. The History of Concrete (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 9) (+1)

9. When a Witness Recants (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Time and Water (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 4) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Fjord (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clayface (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Michael (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Bride! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wildwood (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. TBD from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Hexed

“Save the Day” from Hoppers

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wuthering Heights (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Mandalorian and Grogu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wildwood

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Digger, Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Invite, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5, Whalefall

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Coward, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Wildwood

July 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Christopher Nolan’s eagerly awaited epic The Odyssey looks to dominate the box office charts this weekend. Perched in what has become the bankable filmmaker’s typical mid-July release date, it is the only new picture out wide and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Odyssey Box Office Prediction

The range for The Odyssey is all over the map for the adaptation of Homer’s tale. On the low end we are talking $80 million while the rosiest expectations have it landing around $130 million. My projection gives it nine digits out of the gate for what should be a healthy summer run.

Holdover family friendly flicks should populate spots 2-4. Disney’s Moana did not have a splashy start (more on that below) and we could see a mid 50s decline to just below $20 million. Animated efforts Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5 should follow.

After a subpar premiere, Evil Dead Burn is likely to round out the top five with a hefty decline typical for horror fare.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $106.2 million

2. Moana

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

3. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

4. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

5. Evil Dead Burn

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (July 10-12)

A lot of parents and kids sat out the live-action rendering of Disney’s Moana. With mediocre reviews and quiet buzz, the musical adventure starring Dwayne Johnson brought in $43.1 million. With a reported $250 million price tag, that’s a huge letdown for the Mouse Hunt and well under my $54.3 million prediction.

After a less than anticipated rollout over the Fourth of July frame, Minions & Monsters dropped to second with $21.1 million. That’s in range with my $20 million call as Illumination Entertainment’s latest animated comedy declined 43%. The two-week take is $108 million as it is poised to become the lowest grossing domestic earner of the seven Despicable Me/Minions sagas.

Toy Story 5 was third with $19 million, ahead of my $16.2 million forecast. The fifth feature in the Pixar franchise sits at $404 million after four weeks.

Evil Dead Burn was not a hot commodity in fourth with just $13.7 million compared to my generous $21.9 million take. The third entry in this current iteration of Dead series came in well below the mid 20s debuts of its predecessors.

Young Washington proved to be a Fourth of July play with a considerable 64% plummet in its sophomore weekend. At $6.9 million, it failed to reach my $11 million projection. The two-week total is a laudable $33 million for the Angel Studios production.

Finally, Olivia Wilde’s acclaimed comedy The Invite expanded nationwide and was sixth with $5.7 million (I said $6.4 million). It has made $7.3 million when factoring in the limited engagements that started a couple weeks back.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Disney’s live-action version of Moana should top the charts, but it could face choppy waters in a marketplace with competition for kiddos and their parents. We also have Evil Dead Burn, the latest entry in that 45-year-old horror franchise and the nationwide expansion of Olivia Wilde’s acclaimed comedy The Invite. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Moana (2026) Box Office Prediction
Evil Dead Burn Box Office Prediction
The Invite Box Office Prediction

The Mouse House will easily achieve #1 but not bragging rights for Moana. My mid 50s forecast would cook up a disappointing start for Dwayne Johnson’s latest and that would mark the second lowball family flick debut in as many weekends.

I am referring to Minions & Monsters. Its unimpressive rollout (more on that below) was a Fourth of July surprise. If it eases in the mid 40s, the latest animated adventure in the series may have to settle for third.

That’s because Evil Dead Burn seeks a runner-spot slot as it hopes to post a $20M+ opening like its predecessors. I’m projecting it will get there.

Toy Story 5 and Young Washington should round out the top five and I have each declining in the mid 40s range.

As for The Invite, a mid single digits result in its nationwide expansion should mean sixth place.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Moana

Predicted Gross: $54.3 million

2. Evil Dead Burn

Predicted Gross: $21.9 million

3. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $20 million

4. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

5. Young Washington

Predicted Gross: $11 million

6. The Invite

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (July 3-5)

With Minions & Monsters, Illumination Entertainment experienced the smallest debut of the seven Despicable Me/Minions movies with a far less than anticipated $37 million from Friday to Sunday and $62 million since its Wednesday bow. To put it mildly, I was more optimistic with respective estimates of $66.4 million and $106.5 million. The studio was obviously banking on more fireworks at the multiplex as this received stronger reviews than its predecessors.

Toy Story 5 slid to second after two weeks in 1st with $30.3 million, under my $35.4 million call. The three-week tally builds to $365 million.

Young Washington from Angel Studios took advantage of the holiday with its historical subject and earned $19.3 million in third. That’s on par with my $18.5 million take.

Supergirl crash landed once again in its sophomore weekend with a 77% fall to $8.6 million. I thought it might only crater in the mid 60s and went with $13.2 million. Summer’s biggest bomb has collected a piddly $57 million domestically.

Disclosure Day rounded out the top five with a 30% ease and $5.7 million. I incorrectly had Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi tale on the outside looking in and it crossed the century mark at $105 million after four weeks.

Obsession finally performed like a normal summer pic by decreasing 46% in sixth with $5.2 million (I said $6.8 million). The eight-week tally is $245 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Invite Box Office Prediction

Remaking the 2020 Spanish comedy The People Upstairs, Olivia Wilde is drawing acclaim for her third directorial feature The Invite. Currently in limited release, it’s out wide on July 10th. The four-hander stars Seth Rogen, Wilde, Penélope Cruz, and Edward Norton.

After its first screenings at Sundance back in January, a bidding war ensued with A24 winning out. On the Fourth of July weekend, The Invite welcomed crowds at 28 venues across New York, L.A., and other big cities. It even managed to crack the top ten in 10th with $800,000 plus for a noteworthy per screen average.

With 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 82 Metacritic, Wilde’s latest is starting to generate awards buzz. Her 2019 behind the camera debut Booksmart did the same while 2022’s Don’t Worry Darling was a critical and commercial letdown.

Like many platform titles, The Invite should play stronger in large markets. I do think this can manage mid single digits on approximately 1600 screens.

The Invite opening weekend prediction: $6.4 million

For my Moana prediction, click here:

Moana (2026) Box Office Prediction

For my Evil Dead Burn prediction, click here:

Evil Dead Burn Box Office Prediction

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 5th Edition

Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.

This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.

When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.

I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.

I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)

13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)

18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)

21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)

22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Club Kid

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Zendaya, The Drama

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)

11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)

14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)

10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor

15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Milo Quifes, The Black Ball

Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. Fjord

3. All of a Sudden

4. Minotuar

5. Coward

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland

7. Possible Love

8. Mimesis

9. Rose

10. The Beloved

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood

2. Toy Story 5

3. Ray Gunn

4. Tangles

5. Hoppers

Other Possibilities:

6. In Waves

7. Forgotten Island

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom

9. Iron Boy

10. Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem

2. Nuisance Bear

3. To Hold a Mountain

4. The History of Concrete

5. When a Witness Recants

Other Possibilities:

6. American Doctor

7. One in a Million

8. Time and Water

9. Rehearsals for a Revolution

10. Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord

7. The Debut

8. Dune: Part Three

9. Cry to Heaven

10. Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Digger

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven

7. Fatherland

8. Werwulf

9. Disclosure Day

10. Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Sense and Sensibility

4. Cry to Heaven

5. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2

8. Jack of Spades

9. Wuthering Heights

10. I Love Boosters

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Digger

4. Project Hail Mary

5. Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Fjord

9. Obsession

10. Behemoth!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger

2. Werwulf

3. The Odyssey

4. Clayface

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Cry to Heaven

9. The Bride!

10. Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Project Hail Mary

4. Disclosure Day

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Digger

8. Wild Horse Nine

9. Wildwood

10. The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5

2. TBD from The Black Ball

3. TBD from The Debut

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2

7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights

8. TBD from Hexed

9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger

7. Werwulf

8. Jack of Spades

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

10. Backrooms

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. The Black Ball

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Disclosure Day

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Digger

9. Werwulf

10. Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. Project Hail Mary

3. The Odyssey

4. Godzilla Minus Zero

5. Whalefall

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday

7. Disclosure Day

8. Wildwood

9. The End of Oak Street

10. The Sheep Detectives

And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Black Ball, The Odyssey

10 Nominations

Digger, White Horse Nine

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

6 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut

4 Nominations

Cry to Heaven

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: June 28th Edition

As we move closer to knowing whether Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey deserves its placeholder #1 rankings in Best Picture and Director, we have seen some new trailers for consideration in the two weeks since my last update. I have said that you can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but we can look for clues about who the studio will focus on.

Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to A Real Pain (which won Kieran Culkin a Supporting Actor Oscar) is not titled No One Cares (which was rumored to be a working name). The first preview reveals it is called The Debut with hints that it’s a somewhat of two-hander between Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti. That said, I still have Halle Bailey listed as a possibility in Supporting Actress.

We got our first glimpse of Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility with Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles vying for noms. And we witnessed a Digger promotional ad that certainly indicated the studio will be all in on Tom Cruise.

Also in the past two weeks, Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day has proven to be a box office disappointment. In my estimation, its chances in BP and Emily Blunt in Best Actress have gone down.

Toy Story 5 also opened and while reviews were fine, many critics deemed it the weakest of the quintet. Unlike Toy Story 3 and like Toy Story 4, it should reserve a slot in Best Animated Feature but not Best Picture.

Finally, The Invite from Olivia Wilde opened in limited fashion before a nationwide rollout in July. Word-of-mouth is strong and I’m beginning to think it could at least manage an Adapted Screenplay nod… if not more.

You can read all the movement below including a new #1 in Best Actress and some serious shifts in Supporting Actress!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Place in Hell (PR: !3) (+2)

12. The Social Reckoning (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+2)

14. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Fatherland (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Behemoth! (PR: 17) (+1)

17. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

18. Werwulf (PR: 18) (E)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (+1)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 14) (-6)

21. Josephine (PR: 21) (E)

22. Jack of Spades (PR: 19) (-3)

23. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Michael (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Club Kid (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Being Heumann

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (E)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)

15. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Robert Eggers, Werwulf

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR 8) (+1)

8. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: 14) (E)

15. Zendaya, The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Guitarricadelfuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Jordan Firstman, Club Kid

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-7)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Elizbeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (E)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+1)

9. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Milo Quifes, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven

Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Obsession (PR: 6) (E)

7. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (E)

9. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (E)

11. Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Fatherland (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Primetime (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Saturn Return (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Disclosure Day

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (E)

12. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)

13. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+2)

14. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tony

99th Academy Awards Predictions: June 14th Edition

It’s been two weeks since my last round of predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. With mid-June upon us, I am now adding my first takes on the two screenplay derbies.

What’s changed in the last two weeks? In my estimation, Obsession has picked up considerable momentum with its astonishing box office performance. I am now vaulting the low-budget horror smash from #25 all the way into the BP lineup. Additionally, I am now thinking that Focus Features will slot Inde Navarrette and her buzzy performance to Supporting Actress and I’m placing her in my quintet all the way in second position.

While Obsession‘s fortunes have risen, I would say Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg has taken a slight downturn. The sci-fi saga which debuted this weekend in line with financial expectations (though certainly not over them) will have to battle other blockbusters (Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Dune: Part Three) over the next several months for awards viability. It could still get in (and so could Emily Blunt in Actress). However, the non-gushing critical response and mixed audience reaction is a potential roadblock.

Trailers can be deceiving when evaluating a picture’s Oscar chances. Yet I have to admit that I found our first look at The Social Reckoning underwhelming and I dropped it from my BP lineup, putting it just on the outside looking in.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. No One Cares (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Obsession (PR: 25) (+15)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-2)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (E)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (-2)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Fatherland (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Behemoth! (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Werwulf (PR: 16) (-2)

19. Jack of Spades (PR: 18) (-1)

20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Josephine (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Saturn Return (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Michael (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Entertainment System is Down

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day

Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to Supporting Actress)

Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 13) (+7)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (E)

12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (E)

13. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 10 (-4)

15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (E)

11. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Scarlet Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Adele, Cry to Heaven

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-7)

15. Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Antonio Banderas, Tony

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine

2. Digger

3. Fjord

4. No One Cares

5. A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Obsession

7. Behemoth!

8. Club Kid

9. Fatherland

10. Jack of Spades

11. Primetime

12. Josephine

13. The Drama

14. Disclosure Day

15. Saturn Return

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. All of a Sudden

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilties:

6. The Social Reckoning

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Sense and Sensibility

9. The Invite

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

11. Prima Facie

12. Being Heumann

13. A Long Winter

14. Tony

15. Minotaur

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 30th Edition

It’s been over three weeks since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions in the six major categories of Picture, Director, and the four acting races. A little thing called the Cannes Film Festival happened in between. In the past few cycles, you can usually count on 2-3 films screened in the French Riviera to eventually make the Best Picture cut at the Academy Awards.

Some features like Na Hong-jin’s Hope and James Gray’s Paper Tiger saw their fortunes take a hit. I would say there are four titles that standing the best chance at finding themselves in the Oscar mix: Cristian Mingiu’s Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or), Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Fatherland from Pawel Pawlkowski, and especially The Black Ball from Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the those Cannes titles and more on the blog from the past few days. There’s others that could gain momentum including Minotaur, Coward, and Club Kid.

Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day didn’t screen at Cannes, but is readying release on June 12th. Influencers who’ve seen it are highly positive. That said, it is a wise practice to wait until the real review embargo lapses to get a clear picture of its awards viability. For now, I have the movie, Spielberg, and Emily Blunt just on the outside looking in.

The horror flick Obsession drew rave critical reactions and fantastic box office numbers that are continuing to grow. This has truly opened the door for Inde Navarrette to snag an acting nod and, in a best case scenario, BP inclusion (still seems like a long shot but you never know). It’s a legit question as to whether Navarrette competes in lead Actress or Supporting Actress. For now, I’m slotting her as a possibility (though not yet a nominee) in the former. Focus Features will clear it up as some point though it might be a while.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have the next update available in mid-June!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Fjord (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. No One Cares (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Fatherland (PR: 7) (-6)

14. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+2)

15. A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Werwulf (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 25) (+8)

18. Jack of Spades (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Behemoth! (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (+1)

21. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Michael (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Josephine (PR: 17) (-6)

24. Saturn Return (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hope

Paper Tiger

A Long Winter

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Na Hong-jin, Hope

James Gray, Paper Tiger

Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Raked)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 15) (+3)

13. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (-9)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning

Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adele, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 15) (+8)

8. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Mark Ruffalo. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

David Oyelowo, Clarissa

Oscar Predictions: The Black Ball

A nearly 160 minute epic spanning decades of gay history in Spain, Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi’s The Black Ball (or La bola negra in its home language) was greeted with an extended ovation at the Cannes Film Festival. Telling three stories interconnected over 85 years, the cast includes singer Guitarricadelafuente, Miguel Bernardeau, Carlos González, Milo Quifes, Lola Dueñas, Julio Torres, Glenn Close, and Penélope Cruz.

Based on an unfinished play by Federico Garcia Lorca, all eyes are on the Cannes jury to see if Ball picks up a major prize later this weekend. The melodrama is being highly praised with many critics calling it a festival standout. Rotten Tomatoes is at 88% with 85 on Metacritic.

This is exactly the type of ambitious project that the Academy could honor in numerous categories including Best Picture and Director (the filmmakers are collectively known as Los Javis). The buzz reminds me of Emilia Pérez when it was unburdened by the controversies that would eventually follow. We probably have our Spanish submission for International Feature Film where this has immediately become a surefire contender. The reaction also indicates this could play in several down-the-line races like Casting, Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound.

As for the actors, Casting could be seen as a way to honor them all. Quifes seems to be generating particular attention. With Penélope Cruz, her small but memorable part might be remembered in Supporting Actress where she may also be in contention for this summer’s The Invite. Close’s role sounds too minor.

Just this morning, Netflix won the bidding war for Ball‘s release. Expect them to go all out in their campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger