Zachary Levi headlines the true life father-son drama The Unbreakable Boy on February 21st. Jon Gunn, known for helming faith-based pics like The Case for Christ and last year’s Ordinary Angels, directs. The supporting cast includes Meghann Fahy, Jacob Laval, Drew Powell, Gavin Warren, and Patricia Heaton.
Boy has been sitting on the Lionsgate shelf for some time as it wrapped production in late 2020. That studio has had a slew of financial disappointments in recent months. While Ordinary Angels (also from Lionsgate) managed $6.5 million for its start, it had solid word-of-mouth and was released on 2800 screens. Early reports have Boy only rolling out in approximately 1300 venues. That should limit its potential as evidenced by my estimate.
The Unbreakable Boy opening weekend prediction: $3 million
Two-time Academy Award winner Hilary Swank headlines the inspiration true-life drama Ordinary Angels as Lionsgate hopes this baby makes several million dollars out of the gate. Jon Gunn, the filmmaker behind Do You Believe? and The Case for Christ, directs with a supporting cast including Alan Ritchson, Nancy Travis, and Tamala Jones. There are some noteworthy behind the scenes players involved with Kelly Fremon Craig (writer/director of The Edge of Seventeen and Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret) sharing script duties with actress Meg Tilly.
Angels was originally slated to touch down in theaters on October 13th last year until it (wisely) moved to make way for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour. These faith-based offerings can manage to outperform expectations. I wouldn’t be shocked if an opening weekend in the $10 million range materialized, but my forecast puts it a bit under.
Ordinary Angels opening weekend prediction: $8 million
For my Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training prediction, click here:
The first full weekend of April brings us a trio of new releases: family friendly animated three-quel Smurfs: The Lost Village, geriatric comedy Going in Style with Morgan Freeman and Michael Caine, and faith-based drama The Case for Christ. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on them here:
As I see it, the Smurfs should easily be tops among the newbies. Yet it may not earn enough to topple the current #1 and #2 which also appeal to families – The Boss Baby and Beauty in the Beast. In fact, we could a rather close battle between Baby and Beauty this time around.
Going in Style has some sleeper potential, but I’m predicting a low double digits premiere which would put it in fourth place.
Ghost in the Shell had a disappointing opening (more on that below) and should lose a significant chunk of its audience in weekend #2 to round out the top five.
The Case for Christ is debuting on approximately 1100 screens. I’ve got it slated to earn $3.4 million, which would put outside the top five.
And with that, your top 5 estimates for the weekend:
1. The Boss Baby
Predicted Gross: $26.1 million (representing a drop of 48%)
2. Beauty and the Beast
Predicted Gross: $24 million (representing a drop of 47%)
3. Smurfs: The Lost Village
Predicted Gross: $20.4 million
4. Going in Style
Predicted Gross: $11.5 million
5. Ghost in the Shell
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million (representing a drop of 58%)
Box Office Results (March 31-April 2)
In a bit of an upset, Dreamworks animated The Boss Baby topped the charts with a fantastic $50.1 million, blowing past my meager $28.6M prediction. The Alec Baldwin voiced ‘toon proved critic proof (it stands at just 48% on Rotten Tomatoes) and gives its studio a sizable hit.
Beauty and the Beast continued its terrific run, but slipped to second with $45.4 million (just under my $48.8M estimate) for a total gross of $393M.
In a March frame where most pictures exceeded expectations, Ghost in the Shell achieved the opposite with a weak $18.6 million for third. This is well below my $30.3M prediction and it’s clear that casting controversies and mediocre reviews helped contribute to the middling premiere.
Power Rangers took a precipitous tumble in its sophomore frame with $14.2 million for fourth place, considerably under my $20.1M forecast. The severe second weekend drop puts in question any planned sequels.
Kong: Skull Island rounded out the top five at $8.5 million (I said $7.9M) for a $147M overall tally.
Finally, The Zookeeper’s Wife overcame so-so reviews with a pleasing showing in 10th with $3.2 million on only 541 screens. This bested my $2.1M projection and it could show sturdy legs as it expands its theater count this weekend. It’s per screen average was actually higher than that of Ghost in the Shell.
This Friday, The Case for Christ will attempt to capitalize on the upcoming Easter holiday by bringing in faith-based audiences. Pictures in this genre have over performed in the past. Christ focuses on proving the existence of Jesus with a cast that includes Mike Vogel, Erika Christensen, Robert Forster, and Faye Dunaway (last seen accidentally proclaiming La La Land as Best Picture instead of Moonlight).
The pic comes from Pure Flix Entertainment and they specialize in these Christian themed dramas. Their biggest success was 2014’s God’s Not Dead, which surprised prognosticators with a $9 million opening and $60 million eventual domestic gross. Christ is slated to premiere on around 1100 screens, which isn’t a huge number.
I don’t believe this will enter the territory of the studio’s largest success. Instead, I could see a gross similar to their 2015 effort Do You Believe?, which made $3.5 million out of the gate on a similar (1320 screens) number of venues.
The Case for Christ opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million
For my Smurfs: The Lost Village prediction, click here:
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