The stop-motion animated adventure MissingLink hits theaters next weekend and it’s the latest effort from the studio Laika. Reviews have been sturdy for the Bigfoot tale featuring the voices of Hugh Jackman, Zoe Saldana, and Zach Galifianakis. Its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 91%.
When it comes to Oscar nominations for their material, Laika has quite the batting average… as in 100%. For their four previous efforts, they’ve also all lost to Disney titles. In 2009, Coraline lost to Up. ParaNorman came up short to Brave in 2012. In 2014, it was BigHero6 over TheBoxtrolls. Two years later, KuboandtheTwoStrings couldn’t emerge over Zootopia.
Could history repeat itself? Absolutely. While critical reaction is solid, Link has little chance at winning the Best Animated Feature award. And, yes, Mouse Factory competition is legit with sequels ToyStory4 and Frozen2. There’s another sequel already released from DreamWorks – HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld – that also looks to nab a nod.
With five slots, there’s a chance Link could be the first Laika flick to miss a nomination. However, their track record is considerable and I wouldn’t count it out. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Blogger’s Note (04/11): On the eve of its premiere, revising this down from $13.2M to $11.7M
The studio Laika is back with their brand of critically acclaimed animated films next weekend with MissingLink. The stop-motion adventure follows an explorer tracking a Bigfoot with Hugh Jackman voicing the explorer and Zach Galifianakis as the creature. Other recognizable faces behind the mic include Zoe Saldana, Emma Thompson, Stephen Fry, Timothy Olyphant, and Matt Lucas. Chris Butler, who made the company’s 2012 effort ParaNorman directs.
All four Laika titles in the past decade have grossed between $12-$17 million for their starts. On the high-end, there’s 2014’s TheBoxtrolls with just over $17 million. On the low-end is 2016’s KuboandtheTwoStrings with $12.6 million. I see no reason why Link wouldn’t fall in that same range.
Reviews have been positive as this currently stands at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes. Of the new releases out next weekend, it actually opens widest on approximately 3500 screens (more than Hellboy).
I don’t believe this will top Boxtrolls, but a premiere between $13-$14 million is certainly possible.
MissingLink opening weekend prediction: $11.7 million
Four new movies make their debuts on Friday at the box office – Robert Downey Jr.’s The Judge, the Steve Carell/Jennifer Garner family comedy Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, the horror retelling Dracula Untold, and steamy thriller Addicted. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:
The question is: can any of them make current #1 Gone Girl disappear from the top spot? It’s certainly possible as The Judge, Alexander, and Dracula could all exceed my estimates and all stand at least a chance of opening atop the charts. Addicted, on a meager 800 screens, is highly unlikely to even crack the top five.
However, I believe Gone Girl will manage to stay #1, despite it serious competition. Annabelle, after a fantastic debut (more on that below), should suffer the same large fall in its sophomore frame that most horror titles do.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $24.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)
2. Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
3. The Judge
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
4. Annabelle
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (representing a drop of 60%)
5. Dracula Untold
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
**My Addicted projected gross of $4.5M should put it in eighth place.
Box Office Results (October 3-5)
The debuts of David Fincher’s acclaimed Gone Girl and Conjuring horror prequel Annabelle injected some much needed life into the box office and created the biggest October weekend of all time!
As predicted, Gone Girl took top honors with $37.5 million, just below my $39.6M projection. This is Fincher’s highest debut of all time and clearly audiences were ready for the much buzzed about adaptation of Gillian Flynn’s bestselling novel. I expect it to perform well in the coming weeks and it should easily blast past $100M.
I did not give that demonic doll Annabelle nearly enough credit as it opened just behind Girl with a magnificent $37.1 million – miles ahead of my small $21.2M prediction. This is easily the best horror opening of 2014 and bodes extremely well for that Conjuring sequel coming in October of 2015.
Denzel Washington’s The Equalizer fell to third with $18.7 million in weekend two, holding up better than my estimated $16.7M. The action thriller has earned $64 million in ten days and should have no problem passing the century mark.
The animated pic The Boxtrolls dropped to fourth with $11.9 million, in line with my $11.4M projection. The decently performing kiddie pic has earned $32 million in two weeks and should finish with around $65M.
The Maze Runner held up well in weekend three with $11.6 million – more than my $9.8M estimate. The new YA franchise has taken in $73M thus far and will also become a member of the $100M club.
Finally, Nicolas Cage’s Left Behind posted an unimpressive opening of $6.3 million, below my $7.6M prediction. Look for this one to disappear faster its lead actor’s hairline.
The first box office weekend of October is bound to be a highly unpredictable one as three new pics enter the marketplace: David Fincher’s Gone Girl, the horror prequel Annabelle, and faith-based Nicolas Cage thriller Left Behind. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:
Here’s where the unpredictability comes in and it applies to all three new films…
Gone Girl is riding a wave of favorable reviews and it’s based on a very well-known 2012 Gillian Flynn novel. Yet movies like this can sometimes open decently and develop sturdy legs in subsequent weekends. My prediction for Gone Girl is definitely on the high end of expectations.
Annabelle, the prequel/spinoff of last summer’s hit The Conjuring, could easily surpass my prediction, which is definitely on the low end of expectations. It’s conceivable that these two newcomers could fight it out for #1, though my estimates do not reflect that.
Left Behind is another wild card. It is based on a series of well-known novels and its Christian themes could certainly give it a better opening than I’m predicting.
Add all that up and it equals a weekend where surprises would not be surprising. As for holdovers, I anticipate current #1 The Equalizer should lose about half its audience, with smaller declines for the animated The Boxtrolls and YA flick The Maze Runner.
And with that – we’ll do a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
1. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $39.6 million
2. Annabelle
Predicted Gross: $21.2 million
3. The Equalizer
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)
4. The Boxtrolls
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. The Maze Runner
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 44%)
6. Left Behind
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
Box Office Results (September 26-28)
It was a terrific weekend for yours truly with newcomers, while I didn’t give a couple of holdovers enough credit and gave another a bit too much.
As expected, Denzel Washington’s The Equalizer easily topped the charts with a rock solid $34.1 million, right in line with my $34.8M projection. The action thriller managed the fourth best September debut ever and the third best for star Washington.
YA hit The Maze Runner slipped to second with $17.4 million, holding up quite better than my $14.6M estimate. The budding new franchise has earned $57 million in ten days and is definitely a treat to pass $100M when all is said and done.
The animated feature The Boxtrolls took third with $17.2 million. My prediction… $17.2M! I’ll give myself a pat on the back for that one and this represents a decent opening for the pic.
In fourth, ensemble comedy This Is Where I Leave You made $6.8 million in week two, outpacing my $5.8M projection. It’s made an OK $22 million in ten days.
Fifth place belonged to Dolphin Tale 2 in its third frame with $4.7 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
That’s because I had the Liam Neeson actioner A Walk Among the Tombstones earning $6.1 million in weekend #2, yet it only managed $4.1M. This major disappointment has grossed only $20 million so far and should top out with only about $30M.
Two new releases should top the box office this weekend as the Denzel Washington action pic The Equalizer and animated flick The Boxtrolls make their debuts on Friday. For my individual prediction posts on each, click here:
I fully expect Denzel to easily rule the weekend with a just OK opening for Boxtrolls. If that animated title fails to meet its somewhat meager expectations, this week’s champ The Maze Runner has a shot at staying #2. I expect holdovers A Walk Among the Tombstones and This Is Where I Leave You to both lose about half their audience in weekend two.
And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Equalizer
Predicted Gross: $34.8 million
2. The Boxtrolls
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million
3. The Maze Runner
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
4. A Walk Among the Tombstones
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 52%)
5. This Is Where I Leave You
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)
Box Office Results (September 19-21)
The YA adaptation The Maze Runner opened #1 as expected with a stealthy $32.5 million, ahead of my $26.1M estimate. As predicted above, it should suffer a fairly significant drop in its second weekend but with a reported $30M budget, it’s off to a great start and a sequel is already scheduled for 2015.
Not a good weekend for Liam Neeson as his A Walk Among the Tombstones suffered a disappointing debut with only $12.7 million, well below my $21.4M projection. With its weak B- Cinemascore grade, audiences clearly weren’t “taken” with it, so to speak.
The ensemble comedy This Is Where I Leave You had a middling opening with $11.5 million, just below my $12.3M prediction. The trailers and TV spots just weren’t successful in making it look like a must-see, despite the star power of Jason Bateman and Tina Fey.
Last weekend’s #1 No Good Deed, as expected, suffered a precipitous drop grossing $9.7 million – just below my $10.7M projection. Still, it’s earned a solid $39 million in ten days. In its sophomore frame, Dolphin Tale 2 rounded out the top five with $8.8 million – under my $10.8M estimate. The sequel, which isn’t matching its predecessor, has made $26 million so far.
Finally, I predicted the Kevin Smith directed horror pic Tusk would make $2.3 million on its limited number of screens, but it didn’t come close. It earned a paltry $886,000 playing in 602 venues.
Focus Features tries to get some animation movie dollars with The Boxtrolls, out Friday. The 3D comedic fantasy features the voices of Ben Kingsley, Elle Fanning, Toni Collette, Simon Pegg, Nick Frost, and Tracy Morgan.
The Boxtrolls will attempt to bring in family audiences and there is certainly a market out there with Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles having made the vast bulk of their money. However, some of its target audience may look at this as a B team offering. Reviews are sturdy with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time. The absence of similar genre titles could lead to this to a debut above $20 million, but I’m skeptical. I’ll predict it manages an opening in the mid to high teens for a respectable but unspectacular debut.
The Boxtrolls opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 