Tag: The Age of Adaline

Box Office Predictions: May 22-25

The four day Memorial Day weekend at the box office promises to be a fascinating one as Disney’s Tomorrowland and horror reboot Poltergeist enter the marketplace in competition with holdover hits Pitch Perfect 2, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Avengers: Age of Ultron. It could easily create a situation where all top five films over the holiday frame post numbers north of $25 million. You can read my detailed prediction posts on Tomorrowland and Poltergeist here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/15/tomorrowland-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/16/poltergeist-box-office-prediction/

My predictions reflect a belief that Tomorrowland will manage to top the charts, though it could face competition from Pitch Perfect 2. That musical comedy sequel performed way above expectations this weekend (more on that below) and depending on its drop, could contend for the #1 position, especially if Tomorrowland doesn’t meet projections. That said, I do have Pitch losing over half its audience due to its front loaded amazing start.

My estimate for Poltergeist is a bit on the low end compared to others and I have it debuting third. As for other holdovers, Avengers: Age of Ultron and Mad Max: Fury Road could find themselves in a close race for the four spot, but I’ll give the slight edge to Marvel’s heroes.

And with that, my top five predictions for the four day, Friday to Monday holiday weekend:

1. Tomorrowland

Predicted Gross: $44.6 million

2. Pitch Perfect 2

Predicted Gross: $32.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Poltergeist

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million

4. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Predicted Gross: $26.6 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Mad Max: Fury Road

Predicted Gross: $25.5 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (May 15-17)

As mentioned above, Pitch Perfect 2 had a shockingly great opening with $69.2 million. This marks the largest opening ever for a musical and third biggest comedic debut in history. Even more impressively, it made more in its first three days than its 2012 predecessor made in its entire domestic run ($65M). Perfect soared above my $42M projection and you can rest assure a third edition will be forthcoming.

Mad Max: Fury Road had to settle for a second place start far behind Pitch, but its $45.4 million haul is nothing to be ashamed of. And neither, ladies and gentleman, was my prediction… $45.4M million! Gold star! This is a solid debut for a reboot of a franchise that had been dormant for thirty years and its international grosses have impressed as well.

Avengers: Age of Ultron dropped to third after two weeks on top with $38.8 million, just above my $36.8M prediction. The Marvel tale has amassed $372M so far. The Reese Witherspoon comedy flop Hot Pursuit was fourth with $5.7 million in its sophomore frame, below my $7.2M estimate. The critically drubbed flick’s gross is at just $23M. Furious 7 was fifth with $3.6 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five (its overall is at $343M). I had holdover The Age of Adaline at fifth with $4.1 million, but it was seventh with $3.1M (current earnings: $37M).

And that’s all for now, folks! Enjoy your holiday weekend!

Box Office Predictions: May 15-17

Summer 2015’s sequel and reboot mania kicks into high gear this weekend as the critically acclaimed Mad Max: Fury Road (arriving thirty years after the last Max feature) and musical comedy Pitch Perfect 2 hit theaters. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/08/mad-max-fury-road-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/09/pitch-perfect-2-box-office-prediction/

Both should make quite an impact. Fury Road has been blessed with truly awesome trailers and TV spots and its current 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes inspires supreme confidence. Pitch Perfect 2 is the follow-up to a cult hit three years ago and it is also receiving favorable reviews and should capture a hefty young adult/female audience. I look for both to achieve openings north of $40 million.

That likely means Avengers: Age of Ultron will fall to third in its third weekend after two weeks on top, barring the unlikely scenario of the two newbies not meeting expectations. The Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara flop Hot Pursuit should dip to fourth with The Age of Adaline rounding out the top five.

And with that, my predictions the weekend:

1. Mad Max: Fury Road

Predicted Gross: $45.4 million

2. Pitch Perfect 2

Predicted Gross: $42 million

3. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Predicted Gross: $36.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

4. Hot Pursuit

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 48%)

5. The Age of Adaline

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (May 8-10)

Avengers: Age of Ultron easily maintained its box office dominance, but its 59% drop-off in weekend #2 was a bit steeper than estimated. The Marvel sequel took in $77.7 million, below my $90.6M prediction. The ten day total stands at $313 million. While the numbers it’s accomplishing are gargantuan, this follow-up has no realistic shot of reaching the $623M achieved by the 2012 predecessor.

The Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy Hot Pursuit was savaged by critics and audiences responded in kind with a weak $13.9 million debut, far below my $21.3M projection. Look for this dud to fade fast.

Leftovers populated the rest of the top five and they all experienced smaller dips that I estimated. The Age of Adaline was third with $5.8 million (I predicted $3.5M) and its total is at $31 million. Furious 7 took fourth with $5.4 million (I said $3.5M) for an overall haul of $338M. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 rounded out the top five with $5.3 million (I predicted $3.2M) and its cume sits at $58M. Last and least… the Jack Black comedy rolled out on approximately 1000 screens and sputtered with a putrid $469,000 – not coming close to even my meager $1.7M projection.

That’ll do it for now, folks! Be sure to check this coming weekend for my Tomorrowland and Poltergeist predictions. As always, next Monday I’ll bring you full predictions and results from the coming weekend. Until then…

Box Office Predictions: May 8-10

Only one new film is daring to even challenge the second weekend of the Avengers squad and that would be Hot Pursuit, the cop comedy starring Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara. It will attempt to bring in the female crowd and you can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/02/hot-pursuit-box-office-prediction/

While I have Pursuit getting off to a pretty decent start, nothing will stand in the way of Iron Man and company reigning supreme for two weeks in a row. The big question is how far Ultron falls in its second frame. Will it drop the 50% that its 2012 predecessor did or in the 58% range of Iron Man 3 in 2013? I’ve got it dropping somewhere in between, though closer to the former (more on Avengers opening weekend further down).

The rest of the top five should be littered with leftovers all making under $4 million. The Jack Black/James Marsden comedy The D Train is only opening on around 700 screens and I’ll predict $1.7 million for it, which would leave it outside the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Predicted Gross: $90.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. Hot Pursuit

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

3. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 48%)

4. The Age of Adaline

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million (representing a drop of 46%)

Box Office Results (May 1-3)

All prognosticators had one question when it came to Avengers: Age of Ultron: would it manage to have the largest domestic opening of all time and beat out the $207.4 million record of The Avengers? I predicted it would with an estimate of $212.7 million.

And I and many others were wrong and you probably have American Pharoah, Blake Griffin, Tim Duncan, Floyd Mayweather, and Manny Pacquiao to thank. Ultron still performed gangbusters with $191.2 million, posting the second all-time domestic debut. Yet the sports bonanza that took place all day and night Saturday likely kept it from setting the record. Still – don’t expect to hear much complaining from Disney or Marvel.

Holdovers populated the rest of the top five with all pictures dropping further than I thought they would, due to Avengers and all the weekend activity. Furious 7 was second with $6.6 million (I said $9.6M) and it lifted its cume to $331M. The Age of Adaline took third in its second weekend with $6.2 million ($8M predicted here) and its ten day total is $23M. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 was fourth with $5.8 million (I said $8.7M) and it’s made $51M at press time. Finally, Home was fifth with $3.4 million (my projection: $5.8M) and its total is $158M.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 1-3

The 2015 Summer Movie Season officially kicks off this Friday and there’s a rather big release to start things off: Avengers: Age of Ultron, Marvel’s sequel to the third highest grossing picture of all time. The event film stands a very legitimate shot at scoring the largest opening weekend in domestic box office history (breaking its predecessor’s record) and I’m predicting it will – barely. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/24/avengers-age-of-ultron-box-office-prediction/

No other new release would dare stand in the way of Iron Man, Captain America, and their superhero compadres – so the rest of the top five will be populated by spring leftovers. Furious 7 will fall to the runner-up spot with Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, The Age of Adaline, and Home behind it.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Predicted Gross: $212.7 million

2. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (representing a drop of 46%)

3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. The Age of Adaline

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 40%)

5. Home

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 29%)

Box Office Results (April 24-26)

As expected, Furious 7 led the box office for the fourth weekend in a row with $17.8 million, a bit higher than my $15.6M estimate. The massive hit has taken in $320 million so far.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 also managed to surpass my prediction in its second weekend with $14.7 million as compared to my $12M projection. The Kevin James sequel won’t reach the heights of the original, but it’s grossed a solid $43 million in ten days of release.

The romantic drama The Age of Adaline had a fairly decent roll out with $13.2 million, right on target with $13.3M prediction. It may hold up OK in subsequent weekends.

The animated Home took fourth with $8 million, outpacing my $6.5M estimate and its total is at $153M. #5 belonged to horror pic Unfriended in weekend two with $6.1 million, just under my $6.9M prediction and it stands at $25 million.

Critically acclaimed British sci-fi import Ex Machina opened sixth with $5.4 million (below my $7.1M projection, but still a pretty impressive start).

Finally, war drama Little Boy tanked in 13th place with just $2.7 million, just ahead of my $2.1M estimate.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 24-26

The final weekend at the box office in 2015 will likely be memorable only as “the weekend before Avengers: Age of Ultron comes out” as that summer season kick off blockbuster may be poised for the largest domestic opening of all time.

As for this weekend, the romance The Age of Adaline with Blake Lively and Harrison Ford comes out. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/19/the-age-of-adaline-box-office-prediction/

Adaline does have a shot at the top spot, but I’m projecting it will fall a bit short of Furious 7, allowing that enormous hit to have its fourth weekend at #1.

The real wild card this weekend is Ex Machina, a critically acclaimed British science entry starring Domhnall Gleeson and Oscar Isaac. My prediction post on it is here and I’m estimating it’ll land in fourth place:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/21/ex-machina-box-office-prediction/

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 got off to a healthy start last weekend and should lose about half its audience in its sophomore frame. Horror flick Unfriended should drop over 50%, as most pics of its genre in their second weekends do. Home, Dreamworks animated solid performer, should round out the top five.

There’s also Little Boy, a World War II comedic drama with Kevin James. Huh? I don’t expect much out of it as it should fall far outside of the top six:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/21/little-boy-box-office-prediction/

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million (representing a drop of 46%)

2. The Age of Adaline

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Predicted Gross: $12 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Ex Machina

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Unfriended

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 56%)

6. Home

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 39%)

Box Office Results (April 17-19)

In its third weekend, Furious 7 was tops again with $29.1 million, just under my $30.4M estimate. The Universal juggernaut stands at $294 million.

Kevin James surpassed most expectations as his critically drubbed Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 earned $23.7 million, a bit higher than my $21.4M prediction. The sequel couldn’t match the $31 million accomplished by the original, but it wasn’t expected to and this is a solid result.

Similarly, the low budget horror entry Unfriended had a commendable $15.8 million debut, outpacing my $12.6M projection.

In fourth, Home’s $10.6 million haul came in below my $12.3M estimate and its total is at $142 million. In its second weekend, romantic drama The Longest Ride was fifth with $7 million. My prediction? Exactly that! It’s made $23 million in its ten days of release.

Disney’s nature documentary Monkey Kingdom made just $4.5 million for a weak 8th place showing, not reaching my $5.9M guess. Even further down the chart and outside the top ten, the James Franco/Jonah Hill drama True Story opened on around 800 screens and managed a paltry $1.9 million (under my generous $3.7M prediction). Even worse, Child 44 with Tom Hardy premiered on just over 500 screens. I thought it would eek out a $2.1 million gross, yet it bombed badly with just $621,000 for a 17th place debut.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

The Age of Adaline Box Office Prediction

This Friday, the romantic fantasy The Age of Adaline will attempt to unseat Furious 7’s three week reign atop the box office charts. Blake Lively stars with Harrison Ford (who turned up in a pretty cool trailer this week) and Ellen Burstyn costar.

The pic’s early critical reaction has been positive as it sits at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes. Still it’s difficult to see Adaline breaking through in a big way. The film should be moderately successful in bringing in a female audience as their choices have been somewhat limited as of late. Adaline should earn in the low to mid teens in the final weekend before the summer blockbuster onslaught begins. That will likely put it at #2 behind Vin Diesel, Paul Walker and company.

The Age of Adaline Box Office Prediction: $13.3 million