Tag: oscars

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 29th Edition

We have reached my final Oscar predictions post of 2016! There will be likely be four more posts: 3 Thursday editions (January 5, 12, 19) and a final one on Monday, January 23rd before the nominations are revealed on Tuesday, January 24th.

Per usual, I’m listing 20 Best Picture possibilities and ten in all the other categories.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

3. Moonlight (PR: 2)

4. Fences (PR: 6)

5. Lion (PR: 4)

6. Silence (PR: 5)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

11. Loving (PR: 11)

12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)

13. Sully (PR: 12)

14. Jackie (PR: 13)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

16. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)

17. Patriots Day (PR: 16)

18. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)

19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)

20. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gold

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 5)

7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)

9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)

7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)

10. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: 9)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)

5. Meryl Streep. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

9. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

3. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

7. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)

9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)

10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 10)

10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 9)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 3)

3. Fences (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Silence (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

8. Loving (PR: 9)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

10. Sully (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 6)

7. Jackie (PR: 7)

8. Toni Erdmann (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Zootopia (PR: 8)

10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Eye in the Sky

Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)

3. Moana (PR: 3)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)

Other Possibilties

6. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

7. The Little Prince (PR: 7)

8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)

9. Your Name (PR: 10)

10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)

2. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)

3. 13th (PR: 2)

4. Gleason (PR: 5)

5. Life, Animated (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Cameraperson (PR: 4)

7. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)

9. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

10. Weiner (PR: 9)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. The Salesman (PR: 2)

3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)

4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)

5. The King’s Choice (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 4)

7. Paradise (PR: 8)

8. Tanna (PR: 7)

9. It’s Only the End of the World (PR: 9)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Lion (PR: 5)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

8. Jackie (PR: 8)

9. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Hell or High Water

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Allied (PR: 4)

4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)

5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Silence (PR: 8)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)

8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

9. Live by Night (PR: 6)

10. Alice Through the Looking Glass (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Silence (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)

7. Lion (PR: 5)

8. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)

9. Sully (PR: 7)

10. Jackie (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)

2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)

3. Deadpool (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

4. Suicide Squad (PR: 3)

5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 7)

6. The Dressmaker (PR: 5)

7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 6)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 4)

3. Moonlight (PR: 2)

4. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)

5. Jackie (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)

7. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

9. The BFG (PR: 9)

10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Moana

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)

2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 4)

4. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 8)

5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 3)

7. “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)

8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)

9. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 10)

10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Silence (PR: 4)

5. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)

9. Live by Night (PR: 6)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Jungle Book

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 3)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

4. Sully (PR: 4)

5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Arrival (PR: 7)

7. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)

10. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Deadpool

Doctor Strange

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Sully (PR: 7)

7. Allied (PR: 8)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 9)

9. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

10. Deadpool (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)

5. The BFG (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

7. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 8)

8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 7)

9. Passengers (PR: 10)

10. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 9)

That leaves us with the following nomination breakdown:

14 Nominations

La La Land

8 Nominations

Moonlight, Arrival

6 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea, Lion, Silence

5 Nominations

Hacksaw Ridge

4 Nominations

Fences, Jackie, Florence Foster Jenkins

3 Nominations

Hidden Figures, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

2 Nominations

20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Nocturnal Animals, Moana, Deepwater Horizon

1 Nomination

Loving, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, My Life as a Zucchini, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The King’s Choice, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Deadpool, Sing Street, Rules Don’t Apply, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange, The BFG.

That’ll do it for now. See ya with the predictions next year!

 

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 22nd Edition

We are moving closer and closer to Oscar nominations being out and there’s plenty of precursor action happening, etc…

Some of the categories, including Best Foreign Language Film (with its list whittled down to nine), Makeup and Hairstyling (seven possibles) and Visual Effects (ten possibilities). All in all, this last predictions posts before Christmas gives my take on where all the races stand as things (sort of) become a bit clearer.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Lion (PR: 6)

5. Silence (PR: 4)

6. Fences (PR: 5)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

11. Loving (PR: 11)

12. Sully (PR: 13)

13. Jackie (PR: 12)

14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

16. Patriots Day (PR: 16)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)

18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)

19. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Gold (PR: 20)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)

7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 7)

9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeff Nichols, Loving

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)

7. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, Gold

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

7. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 5)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

10. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rebecca Hall, Christine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)

9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 7)

10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)

9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)

10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Lion (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Silence (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)

7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

9. Loving (PR: 8)

10. Sully (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 6)

7. Jackie (PR: 7)

8. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

10. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

I, Daniel Blake

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)

3. Moana (PR: 3)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 7)

7. The Little Prince (PR: 6)

8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)

9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)

10. Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Trolls

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 2)

2. 13th (PR: 1)

3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)

4. Cameraperson (PR: 6)

5. Gleason (PR: 4)

Other Possibilties

6. Life, Animated (PR: 5)

7. Fire at Sea (PR: 9)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)

9. Weiner (PR: 7)

10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. The Salesman (PR: 3)

3. Land of Mine (PR: 4)

4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: Not Ranked)

5. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. The King’s Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Tanna (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Paradise (PR: Not Ranked)

9. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Elle

Neruda

The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki

Julieta

Ma’Rosa

The Ardennes

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 3)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Lion (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

8. Jackie (PR: 5)

9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Love &  Friendship (PR: 4)

4. Allied (PR: 3)

5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night (PR: 6)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

8. Silence (PR: 8)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

10. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

5. Lion (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Silence (PR: 3)

7. Sully (PR: 6)

8. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jackie (PR: 10)

10. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)

3. Suicide Squad (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

4. Deadpool (PR: 5)

5. The Dressmaker (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Hail, Caesar! (PR: Not Ranked)

7. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jackie

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hacksaw Ridge

Love & Friendship

Doctor Strange

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 7)

3. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

4. Lion (PR: 2)

5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Jackie (PR: 3)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Moana (PR: 4)

9. The BFG (PR: 10)

10. The Jungle Book (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)

2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 4)

4. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)

5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)

7. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 6)

8. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 7)

9. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 10)

10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po

“I See Victory” from Hidden Figures

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Silence (PR: 3)

5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night (PR: 5)

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Allied

Love & Friendship

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

3. La La Land (PR: 2)

4. Sully (PR: 4)

5. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

Allied

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)

5. Arrival (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

7. Sully (PR: 7)

8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Patriots Day (PR: 8)

10. Deadpool (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 3)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The BFG (PR: 6)

7. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Deepwater Horizon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sully

Star Trek Beyond

Deadpool

A Monster Calls

That gives you a current nomination breakdown as follows:

14 Nominations

La La Land

9 Nominations

Arrival

8 Nominations

Moonlight

7 Nominations

Lion

6 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea, Hacksaw Ridge

5 Nominations

Silence

4 Nominations

Fences, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

3 Nominations

Jackie, Hidden Figures, Florence Foster Jenkins

2 Nominations

Sully, 20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Moana, 13th, The Jungle Book

1 Nomination

Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Cameraperson, Gleason, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Love & Friendship, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Allied, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange. 

And there you have it! I’ll be back at it again next Thursday with my final predictions of the year!

Oscar Watch: Live by Night

In the near decade that Ben Affleck has become a director, he’s had quite an impressive showing at both the box office and in the awards derby. His debut feature, 2007’s Gone Baby Gone (based on a Dennis Lehane novel), nabbed Amy Ryan a nod for Supporting Actress. His follow-up, 2010’s The Town, earned Jeremy Renner a Supporting Actor nomination. His third feature, 2012’s Argo, really hit the Oscar jackpot. It garnered seven nominations and won three – Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Editing. Argo also had the curious and rare distinction of winning the biggest prize without Mr. Affleck receiving a nomination for his direction (the first time that had happened since 1989’s Driving Miss Daisy).

On Christmas Day, Affleck’s fourth feature Live by Night opens in limited release for Oscar consideration prior to its wide release in January. It also finds its source material from a book by Dennis Lehane. Based on Affleck’s track record, it stood to reason that the pic could be a potential Academy contender. Yet reviews out today strongly suggest otherwise. Night stands at only 33% at press time on Rotten Tomatoes and none of the precursors (SAG Awards, Golden Globes) have bestowed it with any recognition.

The Prohibition era gangster drama looks like a non-factor in any of the larger races, including Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, or any acting slots for Affleck and his costars which include Sienna Miller, Elle Fanning, Brendan Gleeson, Zoe Saldana, and Chris Cooper. Night could be a factor in some down the line races including Production Design and Costume Design, though even those could be a long shot.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Passengers

A week ago, the prospect of this Wednesday’s Passengers receiving some Oscar attention didn’t seem totally far fetched. After all, the Academy has shown some love to the science fiction space pic genre three years ago with Gravity and last year with The Martian as they both received Best Picture nods. In addition, their respective leads Sandra Bullock and Matt Damon were nominated in the lead acting races.

Passengers is director Morten Tyldum’s follow-up to The Imitation Game, which was in the Picture race two years ago and for which he received a directing nod. And this space opera boasts Jennifer Lawrence, who’s been nominated four times since 2010 and won in 2012 for Silver Linings Playbook. So, again, not so far fetched.

And then reviews happened late this week for the sci fi romantic thriller which costars Chris Pratt. The verdict? A rather troubling 32% on Rotten Tomatoes and its Oscar chances evaporating. Passengers still has a remote shot at Visual Effects, but in all likelihood the pic will be sitting on the awards sideline.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 15th Edition

Well, folks, it’s been two weeks since I made my last Oscar predictions and a lot has happened in that time period. Both the Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been released, in addition to more critics association bestowing of honors.

The events of the last couple of weeks have led me to this conclusion: La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea are the current hot trio for Best Picture. There was the fascinating omission of La La for a SAG Best Ensemble Award. While I still believe it’s the front runner for the Academy, if it won it would be the first picture to do so without being nominated for the SAG race since 1995’s Braveheart. 

Both SAG and Golden Globe weren’t kind to Martin Scorsese’s Silence, yet I still think it manages to get in the Picture race and nominate its director. Both organizations had their share of shocker nods – for SAG it was Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train in Actress as opposed to Annette Bening in 20th Century Women. For the Globes, it was Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s getting a nom for Nocturnal Animals in Supporting Actor instead of his more expected costar Michael Shannon.

Here’s where I have all the races standing currently. Let’s get to it:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

4. Silence (PR: 2)

5. Fences (PR: 5)

6. Lion (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 12)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

11. Loving (PR: 9)

12. Jackie (PR: 11)

13. Sully (PR: 13)

14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)

16. Patriots Day (PR: 14)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

18. Live by Night (PR: 17)

19. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)

20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

The Founder

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

7. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)

4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)

7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 5)

10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)

3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities

6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)

8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Adam Driver, Silence

Liam Neeson, Silence

Stephen Henderson, Fences

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)

8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 3)

3. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. The Lobster (PR: 7)

7. Jackie (PR: 8)

8. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Moonlight and Loving – *moved to Adapted Screenplay

Patriots Day

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked, was moved from Original Screenplay)

2. Fences (PR: 1)

3. Lion (PR: 3)

4. Silence (PR: 2)

5. Arrival  (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)

7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

8. Loving (Not Ranked – previously listed in Original Screenplay)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

10. Sully (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Elle

Indignation

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia (PR: 1)

2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 3)

3. Moana (PR: 2)

4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)

5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. The Little Prince (PR: 6)

7. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 8)

8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 7)

9. Trolls (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Miss Hokusai

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. 13th (PR: 1)

2. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 5)

3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)

4. Gleason (PR: 3)

5. Life, Animated (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Cameraperson (PR: 7)

7. Weiner (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 6)

9. Fire at Sea (PR: 8)

10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Miss Sharon Jones

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)

2. Elle (PR: 4)

3. The Salesman (PR: 6)

4. Land of Mine (PR: 3)

5. Fire at Sea (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities

6. Neruda (PR: 10)

7. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (PR: 9)

8. Julieta (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ma’Rosa (PR: 7)

10. The Ardennes (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

A Man Called Ove

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 4)

5. Jackie (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Lion (PR: 7)

8. Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

10. Live by Night (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

The Jungle Book

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Allied (PR: 6)

4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night (PR: 4)

7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

8. Silence (PR: 5)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)

10. Fences (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Fences

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Moonlight (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 6)

5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Lion (PR: 4)

8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Fences (PR: 10)

10. Jackie (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Hell or High Water

Live by Night

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie (PR: 1)

2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 7)

3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities

4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 3)

5. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Suicide Squad (PR: 8)

7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)

9. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)

Dropped Out:

The BFG

Hidden Figures

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 2)

3. Jackie (PR: 4)

4. Moana (PR: 5)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities

6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)

7.  Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The BFG (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Arrival

Hidden Figures

Hacksaw Ridge

Manchester by the Sea

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)

2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)

3. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)

4. “Letter to the Free” from 13th (PR: 7)

5. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls (PR: 6)

7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po (PR: 4)

9. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)

10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

“Runnin” from Hidden Figures

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Jackie (PR: 3)

3. Silence (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Live by Night (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Fences (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Allied (PR: 10)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)

10. Love & Friendship (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)

4. Sully (PR: 9)

5. The Jungle Book (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 8)

7. Arrival (PR: 6)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 5)

9. Passengers (PR: 10)

10. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Silence

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)

4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 7)

5. Arrival (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)

7. Sully (PR: 4)

8. Patriots Day (PR: 3)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Passengers (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees

1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)

2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)

3. Arrival (PR: 6)

4. Doctor Strange (PR: 2)

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. The BFG (PR: 7)

7. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 8)

9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Monster Calls (PR: 4)

Dropped Out:

Passengers

Captain America: Civil War

That leaves the following breakdown for nominations:

14 Nominations

La La Land

9 Nominations

Arrival

7 Nominations

Moonlight

6 Nominations

Manchester by the Sea, Silence, Jackie, Hacksaw Ridge

5 Nominations

Lion

4 Nominations

Fences

3 Nominations

Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

2 Nominations

Hidden Figures, Sully, Hell or High Water, Elle, 13th, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Jungle Book, 20th Century Women, Nocturnal Animals 

1 Nomination

Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, Fire at Sea, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Rules Don’t Apply, Live by Night, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange. 

And there you have it, folks! Updated predictions will be up next Thursday. Stay tuned…

Oscar Watch – Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

As you may have heard, there’s this movie coming out on Friday called Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. It’s the first spin-off in the heralded franchise (taking place between Episodes III and IV) and the eighth entry overall in the series.

At noon sharp, the review embargo on Rogue lapsed and we’ve seen a flood of critical reactions come in this afternoon. The verdict? Pretty darn good so far. It stands at 82% at press time on Rotten Tomatoes with several reviewers calling it an action-packed ride geared more towards adult and mega-fans. Not all write-ups have been totally positive. The bottom line is this: Rogue One will not get a Best Picture nomination at this year’s Academy Awards nor will its director, Gareth Edwards.

However, that wasn’t really expected. The real question is whether or not it receives any nominations. If it didn’t, Rogue One would the first Star Wars entry not to do so. Let’s take a trip down franchise lane, shall we?

1977’s Star Wars received a whopping nine nominations and won six. The three it missed out on were all biggies and they were all to Woody Allen’s Annie Hall: Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. 1980’s The Empire Strikes Back was nominated for three and was victorious in Sound Mixing. The rest of the sequels and prequels – 1983’s Return of the Jedi, 1999’s The Phantom Menace, 2002’s Attack of the Clones, 2005’s Revenge of the Sith, last year’s The Force Awakens – received a total of 14 nominations (all in technical and musical score races) and won zero.

My feeling is that Rogue One has little chance of breaking the no nomination streak. I’ve got it currently predicted for three categories: Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects. It also stands a shot at Original Score. Yet like the five pics before it, I would estimate it also will not win in those races.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Collateral Beauty

OK – stop rolling your eyes. When Collateral Beauty (out Friday) had its trailers unveiled months ago, it was not out of the question that the film could receive some awards chatter. After all, the cast is made up of multiple Oscar winners and nominees – Will Smith, Edward Norton, Helen Mirren, Kate Winslet, and Keira Knightley. Maybe its director David Frankel (who’s had some hits with The Devil Wears Prada and Marley & Me) would enter a new phase of his career that included Academy attention.

So it wasn’t unreasonable to include the Picture, the Lead Actor with Mr. Smith, and supporting players like Norton and Mirren in the realm of possibility for nominations. Yet there was also a general feeling from the trailers that perhaps it was trying a bit too hard. Reviews out today seem to confirm that notion. Bottom line? Collateral Beauty won’t get any Oscar nods.

Interestingly, a number of critical write-ups have called it the Hollywood version of Manchester by the Sea, which also deals with the heavy issue of losing a child. Those reviews haven’t exactly meant it as a compliment. While Manchester is poised for many nominations (including Picture), Beauty‘s best hope now is to connect with audiences. At least its costar Naomie Harris looks certain to be recognized, but it’ll be for Moonlight and not this.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2016 Golden Globe Nominations Reaction

Well, the Golden Globe nominations are out and there are some genuine surprises to be had.

Not surprising? Damien Chazelle’s La La Land (the current front runner in the Oscar Best Picture derby) leading all nominees with seven with Barry Jenkins’s Moonlight close behind with six.

Surprising? A total shut-out for Martin Scorsese’s Silence and a better than expected showing for Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals. 

All in all, my performance guessing the nominees was pretty weak. 64% total in the ten major categories predicted.

Let’s break them down one by one, shall we?

Best Picture (Drama)

My Performance 2/5

Analysis: Ouch. This race threw me for a loop as only Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight were nominated among my five. The three that weren’t: the aforementioned Silence, Arrival, and Fences. In their place: Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, Garth Davis’s Lion, and David Mackenzie’s Hell or High Water. Truthfully, none of their inclusions are entirely surprising. Having said that, if I thought I’d get three picks wrong, I probably would have thought Pablo Larrain’s Jackie would get in. This race now appears to be between Manchester and Moonlight.

Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)

My Performance: 3/5

Well… a little better. The three I correctly predicted were La La Land, Florence Foster Jenkins, and 20th Century Women. Warren Beatty’s Rules Don’t Apply and The Lobster didn’t make it in in favor of Deadpool (!) and Sing Street. Bottom line here? La La is going to win this category.

Best Director

My Performance: 3/5

Chazelle, Jenkins, and Lonergan were got in as I said they would, but Martin Scorsese and Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) did not. In their place are Mel Gibson for Hacksaw and the rather surprising inclusion of Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals, especially considering the movie wasn’t nominated in Drama.

Best Actor (Drama)

My Performance: 4/5

The only incorrect estimate here is that Viggo Mortensen got in for Captain Fantastic instead of Tom Hanks for Sully. Ironically, I did predict Viggo would be nominated in Musical/Comedy here (I thought Fantastic would fall under that genre). The other nominees that I did get: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), and Denzel Washington (Fences).

Best Actress (Drama)

My Performance: 5/5

Hey, the one and only race where I went 100%! The nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), and Natalie Portman (Jackie).

Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)

My Performance: 3/5

To me, the surprise is that the Hollywood Foreign Press didn’t nominate the legendary Warren Beatty for Rules Don’t Apply. As mentioned before, I put Mortensen in here, but he ended up getting nominated for Drama. The three I got right: Colin Farrell (The Lobster), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), and Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins). The two I didn’t: the pretty shocking nod for Jonah Hill in War Dogs and much deserved love for Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool.

Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)

My Performance: 3/5

Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Emma Stone (La La Land), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) were all very easy picks to make and they got in. The other two were tougher. I went with Kate Beckinsale in Love & Friendship and Susan Sarandon in The Meddler, but it was Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply) and Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen) who made the cut.

Best Supporting Actor

My Performance: 2/5

Ouch again. When it comes to Oscar predictin’, this has been the most unpredictable category of them all and that showed with my GG’s performance here. I correctly named Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Dev Patel in Lion. My picks of Lucas Hedges (Manchester), Issey Ogata (the totally ignored Silence), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) didn’t come to fruition. Instead, we got the surprise nod for Shannon’s Nocturnal costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson along with Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) and Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins).

Best Supporting Actress

My Performance: 4/5

Correct picks were Viola Davis in Fences, Naomie Harris for Moonlight, Nicole Kidman in Lion, and Michelle Williams for Manchester. It was Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures that I didn’t get (I said Greta Gerwig in 20th Century Women instead). Spencer’s inclusion is a small surprise, as some of the Oscar chatter has had Janelle Monae more likely to get in for Figures than her costar.

Best Screenplay

My Performance: 3/5

La La Land, Manchester, and Moonlight are in as predicted. No love for Arrival and Silence. In their place? Hell or High Water and Nocturnal Animals.

And there you have it! I’ll have a post up with final predictions on the winners shortly before Jimmy Fallon hosts the proceedings in January…

2016 Golden Globe Predictions

The most visible Oscar precursor is unveiled tomorrow when the Golden Globe nominations come out. Unlike the Academy Awards, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association divides its Picture and lead acting races into two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy. Additionally, it doesn’t split the screenplay race into Adapted and Original like the Oscars do.

Tonight on the blog, I am giving you my estimates for what and who will be nominated at the Globes, along with picking an alternate and a potential surprise in these races.

Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)

Predicted Nominees

Arrival

Fences

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Silence

Alternate: Jackie

Potential Surprise: Fences not getting a nod, allowing Jackie or Lion or Hacksaw Ridge to get in.

BEST PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

Predicted Nominees

Florence Foster Jenkins

La La Land

The Lobster

Rules Don’t Apply

20th Century Women

Alternate: Hail, Caesar!

Potential Surprise: Captain Fantastic managing to get recognized.

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Martin Scorsese, Silence

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Alternate: Denzel Washington, Fences

Potential Surprise: Pablo Larrain getting a nod for Jackie.

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)

Predicted Nominees

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Joel Edgerton, Loving

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Tom Hanks, Sully

Denzel Washington, Fences

Alternate: Andrew Garfield, Silence – will be interesting to see which pic he’s nominated for.

Potential Surprise: Michael Keaton landing a nom for The Founder, which could significantly boost his Oscar talk.

BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

Predicted Nominees

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Colin Farrell, The Lobster

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Alternate: Adam Driver, Paterson

Potential Surprise: Grant not being nominated, which would essentially kill his slimming chances for a Supporting Actor Oscar nod.

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)

Predicted Nominees

Amy Adams, Arrival

Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Alternate: Rachel Weisz, Denial

Potential Surprise: Hearing Rebecca Hall’s name called for the little seen Christine.

BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

Predicted Nominees

Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship

Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Susan Sarandon, The Meddler

Emma Stone, La La Land

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Alternate: Sally Field, My Name is Doris

Potential Surprise: Hailee Steinfeld sneaking in for the critically lauded The Edge of Seventeen.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Issey Ogata, Silence

Dev Patel, Lion

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Alternate: Mykelti Williamson, Fences

Potential Surprise: There could be a lot in this race, but let’s go with Aaron Eckhart getting recognized for Sully or Bleed for This.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

Viola Davis, Fences

Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Alternate: Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky

Potential Surprise: Molly Shannon’s small indie work in Other People making the cut.

BEST SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

Arrival

La La Land

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Silence

Alternate: Fences

Potential Surprise: Well, predicting Fences gets left off is a bit of a surprise, so let’s go with that.

I’ll have a post up tomorrow recounting how I did with these predictions. Until then…

 

Oscar Watch: Hidden Figures

Reviews are out today for Hidden Figures and its Oscar chances are becoming (somewhat) more clear. From Theodore Melfi, who last directed Bill Murray to acclaim in St. Vincent, the pic focuses on three African American women (Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monae) who were instrumental in the space flights of the 1960s. Other costars include Kevin Costner, Kirsten Dunst, and Jim Parsons.

The most common two words that writers are using for Figures must be music to 20th Century Fox’s ears: crowd pleaser. Early tallies put it at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, though some of the reviews aren’t exactly raves. Still, with audiences possibly responding positively to it, it stands a real shot at a Best Picture nod. It could fit a similar slot to both 2009’s The Blind Side and 2011’s The Help. Melfi seems unlikely to make the cut in the Director race.

Acting categories could provide possibilities in both Supporting races. Henson will be campaigned for in Lead Actress and as has been discussed at length on this blog, that’s an extremely crowded category and she looks unlikely to get in. As for Supporting Actress, word is that Monae stands a better shot than Spencer for recognition. In Supporting Actor, Costner is getting good ink and could factor into a very uncertain race at press time. Figures also could receive an Adapted Screenplay nomination.

This Thursday, I’ll have my predictions updated and it will provide greater guidance on how Hidden figures into it all.