Unless it earns less than half of what Jackass 3D took in for an opening three years ago, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa with Johnny Knoxville should knock Gravity off its three week perch of being #1. The weekend’s other newbie is Ridley Scott’s The Counselor with an impressive cast and curiously, a so-so marketing campaign and no reviews at press time. You can read my prediction posts on both newcomers here:
Gravity lost about 30% of its audience from week two to three and I’d expect roughly the same for this weekend. A low 30s drop seems likely for Captain Phillips in week three. And, finally, Carrie opened to a disappointing third place showing in its debut and could easily fall over 50% in its sophomore frame.
And with that, my prediction for this weekend’s top five:
1. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Predicted Gross: $28.3 million
2. Gravity
Predicted Gross: $21.2 million (representing a drop of 29%)
3. The Counselor
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
4. Captain Phillips
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 33%)
5. Carrie
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)
As always, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!
It’s got some incredibly talented and well-respected people involved but will The Counselor break out of the pack and be a hit? Ridley Scott directs this crime drama that boasts an original screenplay from acclaimed novelist Cormac McCarthy. It stars Shame and X-Men First Class star Michael Fassbender and features an all-star supporting cast that includes Brad Pitt, Cameron Diaz, Penelope Cruz, and Javier Bardem.
With that kind of pedigree, The Counselor could have a healthy opening above $20 million. However, I don’t think it’s going to happen. The marketing campaign has only been so-so and the TV spots really don’t make it clear what the film is about. Curiously, we’ve seen no mainstream reviews out five days before its debut so buzz (whether it turns out positive or negative) is nonexistent at this juncture. While Fassbender is certainly well-respected, he’s got no track record of opening a film. This could all spell out a muted opening for The Counselor.
While it’s certainly one of my most anticipated releases of the season, there’s been plenty of recent titles catering to an adult audience (Gravity, Captain Phillips, Prisoners). The possibility of The Counselor getting somewhat lost in the shuffle seems very real. I’m going with a debut in the mid-teens.
The Counselor opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million
For my Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa prediction, click here:
For over a decade now, the Jackass franchise has been a mightily profitable one for Paramount and MTV Films. Based on the popular MTV series, Jackass: The Movie opened to $22.7 million in the fall of 2002. Four years later, Jackass Number Two debuted to $29 million. Four years following that, Jackass 3D took in an amazing $50.4 million for its opening.
This Friday brings us Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa in which star Johnny Knoxville portrays said Grandpa, one of the more known characters from the show’s history. This could properly be called a spin-off of the franchise and the trailers claim that it’s all real people reacting to Grandpa’s antics. Bad Grandpa appears to be modeled more after the kind of pics that Sasha Baron Cohen makes.
Bad Grandpa looks to be a true test as to just how hot this franchise still is. A lot of the moviegoers that grew up with Jackass are getting older. Will they turn out? I highly doubt this venture can even approach what Jackass 3D made in 2010. Its enormous opening was way beyond what most thought it could do, but it did have the advantage of higher ticket prices due to the 3D technology.
My gut tells me Bad Grandpa is more likely to debut around the numbers of the first two franchise flicks. It could certainly surprise with a gross north of $30 million but I’m not seeing it. What Bad Grandpa should do is end the three-week reign of the juggernaut Gravity. However, the trend of each Jackass pic opening bigger than the last should end here.
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa opening weekend prediction: $28.3 million
For my prediction on Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, click here:
Paul Feig’s The Heat answers the question as to whether a picture can simply coast on the charms of its personable leading ladies Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy. That answer, for the most part, is yes. This buddy cop comedy displays all the hallmarks of the genre with the notable exception of said cops being female. We’ve had countless examples of male-driven movies in this category from Lethal Weapon to Bad Boys to Rush Hour to The Other Guys and so forth. As far as I can recall, there’s more examples of male cop/dog cop genre pics than straight up female buddy cop entries. Only 1988’s long-forgotten Feds with Rebecca DeMornay and Mary Gross springs to mind.
Bridesmaids director Feig changes that here and enlists some big stars to headline it. Bullock plays Sarah Ashburn, the uptight FBI agent forced to team up with foul-mouthed and streetwise Boston cop Mullins (McCarthy). Both think their brand of law enforcement is the best method and they’re naturally diametrically opposed… so let the hijinks ensue!
There’s really nothing about the plot that separates The Heat from its counterparts in the genre. Let’s face it – it’s pretty tough to bring much new to the buddy cop flick. That’s where Bullock and McCarthy are able to make this fairly worthwhile. The duo is chasing after a group of drug runners and there’s a mole either in the FBI or Boston PD that they’re trying to nab. All this plot stuff is incidental, however.
McCarthy exploded onto the movie scene with her Oscar-nominated turn in 2011’s Bridesmaids. She deserved the nomination and I’ve used one particular scene in that pic with Kristin Wiig as an example of Movie Perfection previously on the blog.
Here McCarthy is given some humorous scenes with her dysfunctional family who haven’t forgiven her for sending her own criminal brother (Michael Rapaport) to the slammer.
Yet it’s the chemistry of the two stars that makes or breaks The Heat and Bullock does a commendable job as the straight woman. Throughout her career, Bullock has shown a keen ability with dramas and comedy. This film gives her the opportunity to show those chops in something other than a rom com.
There’s a whole lotta familiar territory to find here. Since Agent Ashburn is the tightly wound cop, it’s up to Mullins to get her drunk and they’re eventually getting the whole bar to dance to Deee-Lite’s “Groove Is In The Heart”. Ashburn’s loner personality is explained because – well, she was a foster child (of course). The ladies learn that the old trick of holding a suspect over a balcony doesn’t always go as planned.
Bullock and McCarthy, though, have a winning chemistry and they manage to often rise above the cliched material and allow The Heat to be a mildly entertaining experience. Their fans should be mostly pleased. This isn’t like the previously mentioned The Other Guys that both satirizes the genre while also being an entry in it. That pic worked much better because audiences know all the tricks of buddy cop pics and The Other Guys had fun with it. The Heat is more safe and serviceable. And the two leads do just enough to make it tolerable.
In 1976, Martin Scorsese’s Taxi Driver was seen as a strong possibility to win Best Picture at the Oscars until a boxing movie unexpectedly captured audiences attention and took the prize. That would, of course, be Rocky. Fast forward to 2004 where Scorsese’s Howard Hughes biopic The Aviator seemed to be the odds-on favorite for Best Pic until, yet again, a pugilistic tale surprised moviegoers late in the awards season.
Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby wasn’t even talked about much as an awards contender during 2004’s calendar year. It was released very late in the year, but it turned out to be great timing.
Baby would win the top award over The Aviator, as well as Marc Forster’s Finding Neverland, Taylor Hackford’s Ray, and Alexander Payne’s Sideways.
As for other contenders not recognized, the Academy would ignore Quentin Tarantino’s fantastic Kill Bill and its Volume II after snubbing the first installment the year prior. It’s also worth noting that the greatest Harry Potter flick in the franchise (in my view) Prisoner of Azkaban could have been honored too. And there’s Michel Gondry’s highly original critical favorite Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. And a favorite of audiences – Mel Gibson’s mega-blockbuster Passion of the Christ. Any of one of these pics should have at least replaced Finding Neverland, which was decent but doesn’t belong in the category.
The Baby boom would extend to Eastwood, who won Best Director exactly a dozen years after winning the same award for Unforgiven. This prevented Scorsese from winning his first Oscar. Other nominees included Hackford, Payne, and Mike Leigh for Vera Drake.
Once again – Gondry, Tarantino, and Gibson are names worth mentioning that didn’t get in the mix.
Jamie Foxx would take Best Actor for his dead-on portrayal of the legendary singer Ray Charles in Ray, winning out over Leonardo DiCaprio in The Aviator, Don Cheadle in Hotel Rwanda, Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby, and Johnny Depp in Finding Neverland.
One major snub was Paul Giamatti for his fine work in Sideways. The Academy yet again snubbed Jim Carrey in Eternal Sunshine.
Hilary Swank won her second Best Actress award in five years for Baby (in 1999, she was victorious in Boys Don’t Cry). Other nominees: Annette Bening in Being Julia, Catalina Sandino Moreno in Maria Full of Grace, Imelda Staunton in Vera Drake, and Kate Winslet for Eternal Sunshine.
Once again, it was Uma Thurman left out for her work in the Kill Bill franchise.
Morgan Freeman would win his first Oscar in the Supporting Actor race for Million Dollar Baby over Alan Alda in The Aviator, Thomas Haden Church for Sideways, Jamie Foxx in Collateral, and Clive Owen in Closer.
Not to keep bringing up Kill Bill, but the late David Carradine should have been nominated.
The Aviator would finally receive some Academy recognition with Cate Blanchett winning Supporting Actress with her portrayal as Katherine Hepburn. Other nominees: Laura Linney in Kinsey, Virginia Madsen for Sideways, Sophie Okonedo in Hotel Rwanda, and Natalie Portman for Closer.
After all my mentions for Kill Bill and Eternal Sunshine receiving snubs, there’s one other 2004 pic that demonstrates the Academy’s constant ability to ignore comedies. So I give you the following snubs –
Best Actor – Will Ferrell, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Supporting Actor – Steve Carell, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Supporting Actor – Paul Rudd, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Supporting Actor – David Koechner, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Scene Involving a Cannonball – Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Scene With a Dog Being Punted – Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Rendition of “Afternoon Delight” In a Movie: Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
I’ll be back with Oscar History: 2005 soon, my friends!
The horror remake Carrie, the Stallone/Schwarzenegger action pic Escape Plan, and the Wikileaks drama The Fifth Estate all join the box office fray this weekend. You can find my predictions on all three at these links:
Will any of them have any enough firepower to unseat Gravity from the #1 spot? As I see it, only Carrie stands a chance. However, I’m only putting it at a low 20s opening and that should not be enough to keep Alfonso Cuaron’s space phenomenon from the #1 perch for a third weekend. Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks scored a solid $25 million opening this past weekend and with an A Cinemascore grade, its second weekend decline should be small.
Based on my prediction for The Fifth Estate, it should open at #6 while Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 stays in the top five. And, with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Gravity
Predicted Gross: $29.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)
2. Carrie
Predicted Gross: $22.4 million
3. Captain Phillips
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 28%)
4. Escape Plan
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
5. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 32%)
I’ll have an update posted Saturday on the blog’s Facebook page with a final report Sunday on the blog!
The Fifth Estate stars Benedict Cumberbatch (seen this summer in a fine performance as the villain in Star Trek Into Darkness) as Wikileaks founder Julian Assange. From Gods and Monsters and Dreamgirls director Bill Condon, Estate was looked at as a potential awards contender before it screened at some recent film festivals. The result? It sits at a weak 44% on Rotten Tomatoes as many critics were not impressed with what they saw.
Media news stories regarding Assange have been prevalent in recent years and it could help Estate‘s performance. Honestly though, this is the type of picture that greatly would’ve benefited from strong reviews which fuels Oscar buzz. It didn’t turn out that way. The pic is marketed toward an adult crowd who still have Gravity and Captain Phillips in the multiplex. Add it all up and I see a fairly muted debut for this film.
The Fifth Estate opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million
2013 marks the first time in a long time that no horror movie prefaced with Saw or Paranormal Activity sees an October debut. Instead, the only genre flick meant to capitalize on Halloween month is Carrie, which I suppose was the inevitable remake of Brian De Palma’s 1976 scare fest.
Based on Stephen King’s first novel, the ’76 version earned Oscar nominations for Sissy Spacek and Piper Laurie. This time around it’s Kick-Ass star Chloe Grace Moritz and Julianne Moore taking over the lead roles. The remake was originally set to debut in March before it was pushed back.
One big question keeps popping up in my mind here: do audiences really want to see a Carrie remake? The original is a genre classic. Yet unlike the remakes of Friday the 13th or Halloween or A Nightmare on Elm Street, there was never a franchise spawned from it to keep it constantly in the public’s mind. Actually there was a “sequel” in 1999 called The Rage: Carrie 2 that earned a weak $17 million domestically. The fact that no horror flick opens this month could certainly help and, frankly, horror movies often open much bigger than people like me say they will.
However, I don’t sense much excitement for this one. The familiarity with the original and the October release date should guarantee it a $20 million plus opening (if it falls below that, it’ll be considered a major letdown). I don’t think it’ll get much over that number though and it will likely fade quickly.
Gravity continues to defy expectations as it had a remarkable hold in its second weekend. The Alfonso Cuaron space thriller with Sandra Bullock (whose Oscar buzz for this continues to grow) and George Clooney dipped only 21% in the sophomore frame with $44.3 million. This is above my $33.4M projection. Gravity is not just a hit… it’s turning into a phenomenon. In just ten days, it’s made $123 million. An eventual domestic gross of $250 million is not out of the question. To put it in perspective, the pic grossed more in its second weekend that I thought it would make with its opening.
Captain Phillips starring Tom Hanks provided a strong hit for the actor, who hasn’t seen many in the last half decade. Phillips debuted with $26 million, north of my $19.1M estimate. With a terrific A Cinemascore grade, expect this Captain to do well in subsequent weeks as its Oscar buzz also continues to build.
In third place in its third weekend, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 took in $14.2 million, right on target with my $14.3M projection. The animated sequel has earned a sturdy $78 million and looks like a safe bet to cross the century mark.
Landing with a thud in fourth place is Machete Kills. The Robert Rodriguez sequel starring Danny Trejo, Jessica Alba, Lady Gaga, Mel Gibson, and many more couldn’t capitalize on its star power as it made an awful $3.7 million. This is well below my what I thought was a meager $7.2 million estimate.
In the five spot was the bomb Runner Runner with Justin Timberlake and Ben Affleck which also made $3.7 million in week #2, right in line with my predicted $3.5M. Runner has made only $14 million in ten days and should struggle to reach $20M domestic.
Be sure to check the blog as the day rolls on as my predictions for next weekend’s trio of newbies comes in: the horror remake Carrie, the Stallone/Schwarzenegger action pic Escape Plan, and the Wikileaks drama The Fifth Estate.
It was a Thursday autumn evening one year ago when I was sitting at my computer and on a snap decision, I said to myself, “Screw it – I’m starting a movie blog. Right now.”
I had thought about it before, but obviously never acted on the notion. I knew two things: I seriously love movies. And I seriously love writing about them. That’s all I knew. I had no clue – none – on that Thursday night what the blog would be… other than it would be about movies. I wrote my inaugural post quickly and titled it My Love of Movies. This is what I wrote moments after that snap decision entered my head:
That same night, I wrote my second post, which was my first entry in my Movie Perfection series. This one is about 1995’s Seven. I have said before that the Movie Perfection posts are my very favorite to write:
Since then my examples of Movie Perfection has expanded to a Raquel Welch poster leading Tim Robbins to glorious freedom in The Shawshank Redemption. The brilliantly edited sequence in Moneyball where we hear the crack of a baseball bat that signals validation for Brad Pitt’s character. Christian Bale hilariously turning into a music critic as he extols the virtues of Genesis, Huey Lewis, and Whitney Houston in American Psycho. A vehicle full of rockers and groupies coming together to the sound of Elton John’s “Tiny Dancer” in Almost Famous. The birth of Melissa McCarthy’s movie stardom as she tells Kristin Wiig to stop blaming the world for her problems in Bridesmaids. A letter written by Bradley Cooper to Jennifer Lawrence expressing his love for her in Silver Linings Playbook. An absolutely stunningly beautiful and emotional animated montage that chronicles a couple’s life together in Pixar’s Up.
One year ago, it’s hard to describe how terrific that evening was as I began the blog. Those who know me know my passion for film and writing. The fact that it took so long to bring that passion to a blog confounds me now. What took so damn long? Oh well – the point is, it exists now. And truth be told – I cannot imagine it not existing now.
I know it may sound cheesy, but it really does mean a lot to me that this blog has people reading it. Honestly, I can love doing it (and I do), but what’s the point if no one reads the damn thing?
A year ago in that first My Love of Movies post, I described the sense of wonder I experienced when viewing Pulp Fiction on the big screen for the first time. It’s what you hope for every time you go to the theater. Pulp Fiction is filled with moments that reiterate to me why I love movies. One scene is the famous John Travolta/Uma Thurman dance scene set to a rockin Chuck Berry tune. It is yet another example of Movie Perfection, as is nearly everything Quentin Tarantino does. I began this blog discussing the unforgettable title credit sequence set to Dick Dale’s “Misirlou” in Pulp Fiction. A year later, it comes full circle with that fantastic dance scene and Chucky Berry.
As I sit here on another Thursday autumn evening a year later, I am thankful for snap decisions. Mostly, I’m thankful to you for rewarding my snap decision. I started this little blog on a whim and truly wasn’t sure if I would love doing it or not. That is no longer a question in my head. It goes to show you never can tell. There’s a great lyric in that Chucky Berry song where Vincent Vega and Mia Wallace dance and that serves as the title of this anniversary post. “You Could See That Pierre Did Truly Love The Mademoiselle.” In this instance, I’m Pierre. This blog is The Mademoiselle. The readers of this blog are The Mademoiselle, too. Thank you.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 