James DeMonaco’s The Purge is proof positive that an effective marketing campaign and creepy TV spots can lead some titles to gross far more than they should. Released last June, the pic opened to a way more than expected $34 million. Once audiences figured out its questionable quality, it only added $30 million more after its initial three day debut. Still, with a tiny $3 million budget it represented a financial windfall for Universal and a sequel is coming next month.
The Purge is predicated on a simple and pretty ludicrous premise. Set in 2022, the crime rate is down to 1% due mostly to a 12 hour period every March where there are no laws. People can feel free to murder anyone they want with no repercussion and this is designed to restore balance and let individuals play out their violent tendencies. It’s sort of like The Hunger Games where everyone can participate and not just watch. DeMonaco’s script does little to explain why this tactic is so successful and it takes a tremendous suspension of disbelief on the audience’s part to buy it.
Ethan Hawke (who has seen better horror flicks with Sinister) is a security system salesman with a wife (Lena Headey) and two kids who has undoubtedly seen financial benefit from all the purgin’. On the night of said Purge, events take place which make the family vulnerable to becoming victims of the big event. Scary looking individuals with Strangers type masks follow.
The largest problem with The Purge is that it attempts to walk a fine line between social satire and just being an all out B movie horror flick. It never quite decides which it would rather be so it succeeds at neither. DeMonaco’s script suggests there may have more background on why this Purge tactic was adopted by the U.S. government, but it never gets into explaining it. For most of the running time, this is just a run of the mill pic about terrorizers trying to kill the family and it’s not a terribly original or memorable one at that.
Performances are adequate if not particularly noteworthy for any of the actors. There’s “twists” involving the family’s neighbors that you’ll see coming from a mile away. One of the most positive aspects of The Purge is the brisk 85 minute running time. It’s watchable for sure, but little else.
There are moments few and far between where we see how The Purge could have been an intelligent commentary on violence in this country, but it never bothers to go there. What we’re left with is considerably less impressive.
Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum are back in action with this Friday’s 22 Jump Street, the sequel to the successful 2012 21 Jump Street, which is loosely based on the 1980s Johnny Depp TV series. The original made $35 million in its debut weekend on the way to a $138 million domestic gross. This is expected to outshine that.
While 22 Jump Street is highly unlikely to match what How to Train Your Dragon 2 earns next weekend, it should very easily settle for a second place premiere. Word of mouth has been terrific – most critics are saying it improves upon its predecessor and it stands at 97% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. With costars Ice Cube, Dave Franco, and Rob Riggle back in the mix (and some reported celebrity cameos), audience anticipation and goodwill left over from the first should lead this to solid results for Columbia Pictures and MGM.
Both Hill and Tatum have seen their stars rise since 21 over two years ago. The big question to me is whether this posts the largest comedy opening so far in 2014. To do that it would need to debut higher than the $49 million of Neighbors from Hill’s buddy Seth Rogen. My prediction puts it just beyond that to claim victory.
22 Jump Street opening weekend prediction: $53.1 million
For my How to Train Your Dragon 2 prediction, click here:
With a surprisingly serious dearth of animated features for the kiddos this summer, DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon 2 appears poised to breathe some fire into the box office when it opens Friday. Opening ultra-wide on approximately 4,100 screens, Dragon 2 is the sequel to the 2010 original that grossed $43.7 million in its March debut on its way to a $217 million domestic haul. The numbers for the sequel are expected to be quite higher and its premiere could easily double the first weekend of its predecessor.
Featuring the voices of Jay Baruchel, America Ferrera, Jonah Hill, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Kristen Wiig and Cate Blanchett – Dragon so far stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and it’ll surely be a candidate for Best Animated Feature come Oscar time. While summer 2013 saw a slew of animated features vying for attention, this season is different. How to Train Your Dragon 2 is really the only game in town with just Planes: Fire&Rescue coming in mid July. With a lack of the usual genre fare for family audiences, their demographic should flock to this.
A legit question is whether this could challenge Captain America: The Winter Soldier‘s $95 million debut which still stands as 2014’s highest. I don’t think it’ll quite get there, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me. I’ll predict it gets just past double what the first did out of the gate and it should have healthy legs in subsequent weekends.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 opening weekend prediction: $88.7 million
May kicked off the 2014 summer movie season and, per usual, there were successes and failures. There were ten wide releases during the month and, as I see it, there was a 40% success rate among them. Let’s talk about them in the May edition of Winners and Losers.
Winner: Neighbors
The only successful comedy of the month came with solid reviews (73% on Rotten Tomatoes) and robust box office (should top out close to $150 million). It marked the largest domestic opening ever for star Seth Rogen. Neighbors could end up as the season’s biggest grossing comedy, though 22 Jump Street may have something to say about that.
Loser: The Amazing Spider-Man 2
It isn’t that often you’ll see a movie that will gross just over $200 million be called a loser, but we have it here. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 received middling reviews and it will gross over $50M less than its predecessor from two years ago. Even worse, the original trilogy all grossed well over $300M with the first topping out at $403M. This is clearly a franchise that is not on the upswing (see what I did there?) and Sony needs to figure how to rectify it fast.
Winner: Godzilla
This is one is a winner with an asterisk. It opened at a terrific $93 million before suffering huge drop-offs in its second and third weekend. Still, it should reach over $200M and its international grosses are strong.
Loser: Blended
This marks another disappointment for Adam Sandler after recent flops Jack and Jill and That’s My Boy. This could struggle to make $50 million which will mark the lowest earner in the Sandler/Drew Barrymore trilogy. Grown Ups 3 anyone?
Winner: Maleficent
It only has one weekend under its belt, but the Disney title scored a strong $69 million and marked Angelina Jolie’s highest live-action all-time debut. With its A Cinemascore grade, long term prospects look encouraging.
Loser: Million Dollar Arm
Disney didn’t have as much luck here as the Jon Hamm sports drama got lost in the shuffle and is unlikely to reach $40 million. The studio was hoping it would reach the numbers of previous sports hits Miracle and Invincible, but it didn’t happen.
Winner: X-Men: Days of Future Past
Some thought this could be the biggest grossing flick of the franchise, but it will not top 2006’s The Last Stand and should be on equal footing with 2003’s X2. Still, it improved upon director predecessor’s First Class gross of $165 million and ensures the venerable series will continue.
Loser: A Million Ways to Die in the West
Two summers ago, Seth MacFarlane had the highest comedy grosser of the summer with Ted. This past weekend’s tepid $16.7M opening for West means it won’t even match what Ted did in its first weekend. Negative reviews didn’t help. For Seth, Ted 2 can’t come quick enough.
Loser: Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return
This one was an all-around disaster. It cost a reported $70 million to make and has only made a pathetic $8 million in four weeks. Ouch.
Loser: Moms’ Night Out
This faith-based comedy was thought of as a potential sleeper that could reach the female crowd. It didn’t and has only made $9 million in four weeks.
All in all, this was the lowest grossing May since 2010 and June will look to pick up the slack with How to Train Your Dragon 2, Transformers: Age of Extinction, 22 Jump Street, and The Fault in Our Stars, among others. You can rest assure I’ll have my June report up at month’s end!
The June box office kicks off Friday with The Fault in Our Stars, the adaptation of John Green’s huge bestselling YA novel and the Tom Cruise sci-fi thriller Edge of Tomorrow. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As you can see, I’m predicting big things for Fault and less than stellar results for Tomorrow. Truth be told, my estimates seem a bit higher than some on Fault and lower than others on Tomorrow. We shall see how it plays out and there’s the factor of Maleficent‘s second weekend. If my predictions don’t pan out, we could see a very real race between all three for the #1 spot, even though I’m saying it won’t happen.
The rest of the top five should be rounded out by holdovers X-Men: Days of Future Past and box office dud A Million Ways to Die in the West.
Here’s how I think it’ll play out:
1. The Fault in Our Stars
Predicted Gross: $43.1 million
2. Maleficent
Predicted Gross: $34 million (representing a drop of 51%)
3. Edge of Tomorrow
Predicted Gross: $23.7 million
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)
5. A Million Ways to Die in the West
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 57%)
Box Office Results (May 30-June 1)
Disney got Maleficent off to a rock solid start with Maleficent, which grossed $69.4 million in its debut – just ahead of my $66.2M projection. This marked the highest live-action opening ever for star Angelina Jolie.
In second was X-Men: Days of Future Past, which dropped further than I anticipated in weekend #2 with $32.5 million compared to my $37.1M estimate. While it’s doing well, Future will not reach the level of the highest grosser in the franchise The Last Stand from 2006.
The news was not good for Seth MacFarlane as his A Million Ways to Die in the West tanked with $16.7 million – less than half of my generous $33.6M prediction. Negative reviews likely contributed to the disastrous opening and West‘s entire domestic take should be less than what MacFarlane’s Ted made in its first weekend. Ouch.
Holdovers populated the remainder of top five with Godzilla in fourth at $12 million (below my $14.2M estimate) and Blended in fifth with $8.1 million (below my $9.6M projection).
Described as sort of a sci-fi Groundhog Day, Tom Cruise headlines Edge of Tomorrow opening Friday and its release is a big box office question mark for Warner Bros. Directed by Bourne Identity and Mr. and Mrs. Smith‘s Doug Liman and costarring Emily Blunt and Bill Paxton, Tomorrow comes with a reported price tag of nearly $180 million dollars.
My suspicion is that it will need to do very well overseas to recoup its considerable budget. In its favor, Tomorrow is garnering rock solid reviews with a current 95% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. However, it has plenty going against it. Cruise is not the box office force he once was and only the fourth Mission: Impossible surpassed $100M in the last five years. While this would seem to be a picture that women may join their husbands for, they might be attending The Fault in Our Stars (or Maleficent) instead. Additionally, I feel the marketing campaign hasn’t done a great job of showing what Tomorrow is really about – other than being an expensive looking sci-fi flick.
In April of 2013, Cruise’s Oblivion got off to a promising $37 million start before its eventual $89 million domestic take. It’s certainly possible that Edge of Tomorrow could reach that number, but I’m skeptical. I feel it will likely open at around the quarter century mark and not reach $100M stateside when all is said and done.
Edge of Tomorrow opening weekend prediction: $23.7 million
For my The Fault in Our Stars prediction, click here:
Based on an enormous bestselling novel from John Green, The Fault in Our Stars opens this Friday at the box office and it seems to be gaining momentum for a terrific opening.
Equipped with a minor $12 million budget, Fault stars Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort as two teenagers who meet at their cancer support group. The 2012 book has connected in a major way with YA readers in and its following is expected to bring in moviegoers. Fault should succeed in easily tripling its budget with its domestic opening weekend alone. This should continue a stellar 2014 for Woodley, in particular, whose Divergent this spring has earned #148 million stateside. I believe an opening in the $40M+ range is the most likely scenario meaning Fault should debut at the top spot.
The Fault in Our Stars opening weekend prediction: $43.1 million
The summer season keeps the potential blockbusters coming as the Disney tale Maleficent with Angelina Jolie and Seth MacFarlane’s Ted follow-up A Million Ways to Die in the West make their debuts this Friday. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I expect both newbies to post healthy debuts, though I expect Maleficent to take in nearly double the haul of A Million Ways. As for holdovers, the Memorial Day weekend champ X-Men: Days of Future Past got off to an impressive start and yet it’s likely to suffer a drop in the high 50s to low 60s in its sophomore weekend. This is not a sign that audiences that don’t like it (quite the contrary). It’s just that tent pole pics that debut over the holiday weekend always tend to suffer large drop-offs. If X-Men were to fall at the rate I anticipate, there could be a potential horse race between it and A Million Ways for the #2 position.
Godzilla (in weekend three) and Adam Sandler/Drew Barrymore flop Blended (in weekend two) should round out the top five.
And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Maleficent
Predicted Gross: $66.2 million
2. X-Men: Days of Future Past
Predicted Gross: $37.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)
3. A Million Ways to Die in the West
Predicted Gross: $33.6 million
4. Godzilla
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (representing a drop of 54%)
5. Blended
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)
Box Office Results (May 23-26)
The Memorial Day weekend saw the X-Men franchise post its second highest debut ever as Days of Future Past earned $110.5 million over the four-day. This is just slightly below my $114.3M estimate. Only 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand debuted stronger and this bodes well for future X adventures.
Meanwhile Godzilla fell further in its second weekend than nearly everyone figured with $38.4 million, well under my $50.6M projection. This indicates that audiences are not impressed with what they saw and aren’t recommending their friends see it. Still it’s earned enough to justify an inevitable sequel.
Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore posted very lackluster results with their rom com Blended, which earned just $17.7 million over the holiday. I thought my estimate of $24.9M was on the low side, but audiences clearly weren’t too interested in what they were selling.
Rounding out the top five were holdovers Neighbors with $17.1 million (a bit under my $18.8M projection) and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 with $10 million (just under my $11M estimate).
As we’re moving deep into the 2014 Summer Movie Season – on this here blog I’ve been reflecting on what has come in the summers before us. Days ago, I wrote a post reflecting on the hits, notable pictures, and flops from 20 years ago in 1994. Today – we focus on the season from a decade ago with 2004’s summer entries.
We’ll start with the Top Ten, but what is notable is some of the comedies that weren’t on that list that spawned endless catchphrases and became massive cult classics:
Onto the Top Ten:
10. Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story
Domestic Gross: $114 million
Vince Vaughn and Ben Stiller teamed up for this well-received sports comedy which received 70% positive support on Rotten Tomatoes. While this was a solid hit, Vaughn’s biggest comedy would come one summer later with a certain pic costarring Owen Wilson.
9. Fahrenheit 9/11
Domestic Gross: $119 million
It’s not often you see a documentary in the top ten summer hits, but in the summer of 2004 the country was focused on an upcoming Presidential election between Bush and Kerry. Michael Moore’s examination of the Iraq War struck a chord with viewers and became the highest grossing documentary of all time.
8. Van Helsing
Domestic Gross: $120 million
Don’t let its #8 ranking fool you because Van Helsing starring Hugh Jackman was considered a major flop upon release. With a reported $160 million budget, it couldn’t recoup that stateside and a potential franchise for Jackman stalled immediately. Good thing he’s got another character he can go back to time and time again.
7. Troy
Domestic Gross: $133 million
Wolfgang Peterson’s Trojan War saga starring Brad Pitt, Orlando Bloom, and Eric Bana under performed a bit domestically (with its reported $175 million budget) but made it up overseas.
6. I, Robot
Domestic Gross: $144 million
While not reaching the heights of his previous summer hits Independence Day or Men in Black – Will Smith’s I, Robot did respectable business. Based on a short story by Isaac Asimov, it received mixed reviews from critics and a planned sequel never materialized.
5. The Bourne Supremacy
Domestic Gross: $176 million
Goodwill left over from the 2002 original The Bourne Identity propelled this Matt Damon sequel to gross over $50 million more than its predecessor. A third Bourne feature would follow three years later before Damon left the franchise and Jeremy Renner took over in 2012.
4. The Day After Tomorrow
Domestic Gross: $186 million
Roland Emmerich returned to doing what he does best (showing the world getting destroyed) and audiences rewarded him for it. Starring Dennis Quaid and Jake Gyllenhall, Tomorrow is the highest non-sequel on the list and it took in over half a billion worldwide.
3. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
Domestic Gross: $249 million
Alfonso Cuaron took over directing duties from Chris Columbus in this third franchise entry. While many (including myself) consider this the best of the series, it surprisingly has the lowest domestic gross of all eight Potter flicks.
2. Spider-Man 2
Domestic Gross: $373 million
Generally considered one of the best superhero movies of all time and the best of this particular franchise, Spider-Man 2 was a massive hit even though it couldn’t quite match the $403 million performance of the 2002 original.
1. Shrek 2
Domestic Gross: $441 million
DreamWorks Animation easily ruled the summer as the sequel featuring the vocal work of Mike Myers, Eddie Murphy, and Cameron Diaz took the top spot. Of the four Shrek entries, it is the biggest grosser and outshined its predecessor by nearly $180 million dollars.
Beyond the top ten, there are four particularly notable pictures which achieved major cult status:
14. Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
It made a decent $85 million upon release, but as we all know, the Will Ferrell comedy has gone onto to becoming one of the most quoted flicks in memory. A 2013 sequel followed.
15. The Notebook
Based on the Nicholas Sparks novel, The Notebook caused audiences to fall in love with Ryan Gosling and Rachel McAdams and brought in $81 million.
27. Napoleon Dynamite
With a tiny $400,000 budget – the quirky comedy Napoleon Dynamite with Jon Heder came out of nowhere and posted a $44 million domestic gross. Like Anchorman, it became an endlessly quoted picture.
38. Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle
It made a meager $18 million upon release, but this stoner comedy became an instant cult classic and spawned two sequels.
And now we move to the flops of the summer:
21. The Stepford Wives
Frank Oz’s remake of the 1975 film cost $90 million to make and earned just $59 million. Critics weren’t impressed and audiences ignored the sci-fi comedy starring Nicole Kidman, Matthew Broderick, and Christopher Walken.
25. King Arthur
Training Day director Antoine Fuqua teamed up with Clive Owen and Keira Knightley for this retelling of the medieval legend. With a $120 million budget, Arthur tanked stateside with only $51 million.
29. Catwoman
Warner Bros. surely regrets spending $100 million on this critically lambasted Catwoman feature which starred Halle Berry and Sharon Stone. It earned only $40 million. The silver lining for the studio: one summer later, a certain Chris Nolan would reinvigorate their superhero fortunes with Batman Begins.
And that’s what was going on ten years at the multiplexes, my friends!
“Family Guy” creator Seth MacFarlane enters the world of film for the second time with A Million Ways to Die in the West, his directorial follow-up to the smash hit Ted from two summers ago. Unlike his previous effort, MacFarlane stars this time around and he’s brought along an all-star cast including Charlize Theron, Liam Neeson, Amanda Seyfried, Giovanni Ribisi, Sarah Silverman, and Neil Patrick Harris.
The R rated western comedy is unlikely to match Ted numbers, which debuted to $54 million on its way to a domestic gross of $218 million. However, I still expect it to do solid business. It may seem like an odd comparison, but I see last year’s Identity Thief as a mark of what I believe West could open at. That picture made $34.5M in its opening weekend and I credit that to the goodwill audiences had for star Melissa McCarthy after Bridesmaids. In the same way – many moviegoers are simply very curious to see what MacFarlane has up his sleeve this time.
There’s plenty of competition out there as there always is around this time of year, but not a whole lot in the way of comedies. Neighbors has already made the bulk of its money and Blended with Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore debuted weakly over Memorial Day weekend. Like Thief, I think West posts a low to mid 30s opening.
A Million Ways to Die in the West opening weekend prediction: $33.6 million
