Audiences were first introduced to Danny Trejo’s character Machete in 2007’s Grindhouse in one of the brilliant fake trailers. This led director Robert Rodriguez to helm Machete in 2010. That film opened to a fair $11.4 million and overall domestic gross of $26 million. Not great numbers, but it only cost $10.5 million to produce so a profit was made and a sequel was greenlit.
Now we have Machete Kills some three years later with Trejo and Jessica Alba returning and an all-star cast of new characters played by Mel Gibson, Antonio Banderas, Sofia Vergara, Lady Gaga, and Charlie Sheen (playing The President no less!). The budget has nearly doubled to $20 million.
Simply put, I don’t see much demand for a sequel. I believe Machete Kills will basically be a dud and will not match the opening weekend gross of its predecessor. There’s also plenty of competition out there with Gravity and Captain Phillips. Maybe I’m missing some pent up longing for violent Machete action, but I don’t think so.
Machete Kills opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million
It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s a terrific box office prediction by yours truly!
Yes, I will pat myself on the back this weekend because the radar was clicking with Man of Steel. While most prognosticators went with between $80-$100 million, I boldly predicted the Superman reboot would gross $124.3 million. Estimates put it at $125.1 million. Gold star!
Zack Snyder’s Steel got mixed reviews, but its A- Cinemascore grade indicates audiences were pleased with what they saw.
I did go a bit high on the all-star comedy This is The End. It earned $20.5 million over the weekend and $32.8 million over its five-day take (it opened Wednesday). My estimates were $25.2M and $38.6M, respectively. Still, that’s a pretty solid opening – especially considering it cost only $32M to make.
The rest of the top five: Now You See Me was third was $10.3M (I guessed $11.5M), Fast and Furious 6 was fourth with $9.4M (I said $10.5M), and The Purge had an enormous drop in its second weekend with $8.2M (I said $13.2M).
That’s all for now folks! I’ll have predictions for both of next weekend’s openers, Monsters University and World War Z, up on the blog very soon!
It seems like every summer, there’s a breakout R-rated comedy or two that hits it big at the box office. Wedding Crashers. Knocked Up. Superbad. The Hangover. Bridesmaids. Horrible Bosses. Ted.
This Is the End has the potential to be 2013’s contender in the category. It features a who’s who of contemporary comedic starts playing themselves as the apocalypse nears. We’ve got Seth Rogen and James Franco. Danny McBride and Jonah Hill. Michael Cera and Jay Baruchel. And many more – even Emma Watson and Rihanna are in the house!
Early reviews for End have been very positive and it apparently delivers on its clever premise. The trailers have been quite funny. So… how big could it open?
This is a tough one and its release date is a factor. End opens on Wednesday, so my prediction will reflect my five-day estimate. There is no doubt in my mind that the Wednesday opening is due to a certain superhero flick opening Friday. This allows End two days of grosses without Superman in competition. I made my prediction for Man of Steel yesterday on the blog and that post can be found here:
Man of Steel absolutely provides direct competition for This Is the End. They are both going after a similar demographic. If End were able to bring in $45 million or over for the five-day, that should be considered a major victory. I’m not convinced it goes that high, though it’s certainly possible. As much as I’ve enjoyed the film’s marketing campaign, I truly wonder whether its concept may seem a little insider-ish for some moviegoers. For instance, I’m not sure it has the broad appeal of last summer’s Ted, which opened to $54 million (that’s a three-day gross). And with Superman in the way, there might be some viewers who simply choose to make that film their weekend entertainment.
Still, This Is the End should have a solid debut and, based on early critical reaction, could have nice legs in the coming weeks.
This Is the End opening prediction (five-day gross): $38.6 million
That’s all for now! On Wednesday, I’ll have my predictions for the Top Five of the weekend.
As we enter a new week, one question will be bothering box office prognosticators like me: How big will Man of Steel open?
Zack Snyder’s take on the Superman story seems to have a lot going for it. For starters, the trailers for it have been terrific. Audience awareness of the film is through the roof. And… well, it’s Superman for goodness sake!
However, the Man of Steel’s track record at the box office underwent an interest journey just seven summers ago. Bryan Singer’s Superman Returns was supposed to be the beginning of a new Supes franchise. It didn’t work out that way. While the picture grossed a solid $84 million in its first five days, moviegoers and critics weren’t impressed with what they saw. Returns went on to gross $200 million domestically, less than its huge budget. The film was considered a box office disappointment.
Warner Bros. went back to the drawing board, bringing in 300 and Watchmen director Snyder. Relative unknown (but not for long) Henry Cavill is Superman/Clark Kent. While the lead may not be a big name, Man of Steel‘s supporting cast is populated with recognizable stars – Amy Adams, Michael Shannon, Kevin Costner, Diane Lane, Laurence Fishburne and Russell Crowe.
Folks seem to be excited about Man of Steel. Those effective trailers have been a plus. As I consider its opening weekend possibilities, the question seems to be: will it gross over $100 million the first weekend or not?
I believe it will. Frankly, anything below nine figures might be considered a letdown. It does come with a reported $225 million budget, after all. When the sixth Fast and Furious earns $120 million over four days, it stands to reason that Man of Steel could make similar bank in three. Somewhere in the $120M range seems like the best bet. There’s also the distinct possibility that it makes upwards of that number. Anything around $140 million and we’re talking Top Ten openings of all time. I’m skeptical it’ll reach that high and I’m more inclined to go a bit lower. However, as the week rolls along and anticipation grows, this could turn out to be a low ball figure.
With that, here’s my best guess:
Man of Steel opening weekend prediction: $124.3 million
We’ll see what happens! Tomorrow on the blog – my prediction for the week’s other newcomer, the all-star comedy This is the End.
Eight long summers ago, Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson struck box office gold with Wedding Crashers, which was the surprise hit of the season with $209 million domestically. Since then, the two actors have seen more flops than hits. Fred Claus? You, Me, and Dupree? The Dilemma? Drillbit Taylor? Hall Pass? The Watch?
You get the idea. So it makes perfect sense that the two stars would team up again to recapture some box office magic. The Internship features Vince and Owen as obsolete salesmen who are forced to start over at Google headquarters. It costars Rose Byrne, John Goodman, and maybe even a surprise actor or two…
The question is: will the reunion of these actors be enough to guarantee solid box office returns? My feeling is – if so, the marketing campaign surrounding the picture is not doing it any favors. I simply haven’t found the trailers to be very funny at all. Some of the humor displayed in the previews looks curiously outdated. And I find the decision of a PG-13 rating to be possibly troubling – Wedding Crashers, after all, is known for its R rated humor.
When The Internship was first announced, there may have been a feeling of excitement about the two leads teaming up again. That anticipation seems to have dissipated. There’s also what I feel will be a real competition for the top spot this weekend. The Ethan Hawke thriller The Purge seems to be running an effective marketing campaign and its numbers could be strong. My prediction post for that will be up either later tonight or tomorrow.
The Internship is an excellent example of a movie that could easily over or under perform. We could see a $30 million opening weekend. We could see a $12 million opening weekend. I think Vaughn and Wilson reunited is most likely to equal a high teens or low-twenties opening weekend.
The Internship opening weekend prediction: $20.7 million
It’s certainly not every weekend that you can describe the box office results as truly shocking. However, this weekend… they were truly shocking.
This is for two reasons: the over performance of Now You See Me and the under performance of After Earth. No one figured the caper flick Now You See Me had a chance of making more than Will Smith’s sci-fi pic After Earth. That’s precisely what happened.
We begin where we should though and that’s with Fast and Furious 6 remaining in the top spot with $35.1 million, a tad below my $36M projection. The sixth F+F installment experienced a sophomore weekend decline right in line with other entries in the franchise.
This brings us to #2… Now You See Me. And that would be an epic failure of predicting on my part. I grossly underestimated the picture and predicted it’d open sixth with $14.2 million. Boy, was I wrong. Garnering a rock solid A- Cinemascore average, See Me took the runner-up spot with an impressive $29.3 million. Audiences clearly were in the mood for something original and different and this seemed to be just the ticket.
And now to the enormous failure of After Earth. The M. Night Shyamalan directed sci-fi pic starring Will and Jaden Smith earned brutal reviews and, as it turns out, audience ambivalence. I incorrectly figured Smith’s star power would propel the film to a #1 opening and a $39.1 million opening weekend. Again… boy, was I wrong! Placing third, Earth debuted with a very weak $27.5 million. Earning a tepid B Cinemascore grade, expect Earth to fade fast in subsequent weekends.
Star Trek Into Darkness took fourth with $16.7 million, edging out fifth place Epic at $16.6 million. I predicted a bit more for each at $18.5M and $17.7M, respectively. And continuing its disappointing results in sixth place was The Hangover Part III, which made $16.3 million in its sophomore weekend (I predicted $17.1M).
So there you have it – not a great weekend for me predicting the new openers at all. I’ll try to do better next weekend. Tomorrow on the blog, I’ll have my opening weekend prediction for the Vince Vaughn/Owen Wilson comedy The Internship. Tuesday, my opening prediction for The Purge starring Ethan Hawke. And Wednesday, my usual Top Five predictions. Stay tuned!
The trajectory of M. Night Shyamalan’s directorial career is at a bit of a low point right now and it’s held there for around seven years. The release of the Will and Jaden Smith sci-fi pic After Earth this Friday will either continue that trend or reverse it. We’ll have our answer soon, but today we’ll explore the history of this important filmmaker and how we’ve gotten to the point Shyamalan is currently at.
At the age of 22, he made his directorial debut with Praying with Anger, which was never released for wide distribution and played the festival circuit. Per usual, M. Night wrote the feature as well. Shyamalan cast himself as the star of the picture which focused on Indian culture (the director was born in the country, but grew up in Pennsylvania). Released in 1992, Anger managed to gross $1.4 million and was shot on an $800,000 budget.
The moderate success of his first picture led to 1998’s Wide Awake, a dramedy starring Denis Leary, Dana Delany, and Rosie O’Donnell. Awake began M. Night’s trend of setting films in his adopted home state. It received mixed reviews and never really got much of a theatrical release. Shot in 1995 on a $6 million budget and released three whole years later, it earned a tepid $282,000.
Based on his first two efforts, there was really no reason to believe Shyamalan would break out in the Hollywood scene in a major way. However, then 1999 came along and changed everything. This happened in the form of The Sixth Sense, released stateside on August 6, the director’s 29th birthday. Starring Bruce Willis and child actor Haley Joel Osment, The Sixth Sense became the most buzzed about summer 1999 title. The supernatural thriller about young Osment seeing dead people struck an unexpected chord with audiences and critics. It currently sits at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes.
An absolutely astonishing $293 million gross domestically and $672 million worldwide would be the result. 11 year-old Osment received an Oscar nomination, as did Toni Collette playing his mother. Willis was snubbed in my view for a Best Actor nomination. Most importantly, Sense earned a Best Picture nomination and nods for Shyamalan for his direction and original screenplay.
The Sixth Sense immediately vaulted Shyamalan into a superstar among directors. Even most blockbuster films don’t earn their director a ton of name recognition. This was not the case here. There were Hitchcock and Spielberg comparisons as critics and moviegoers marveled at the ingenious screenplay and, of course, the surprise ending was truly surprising. That ending assisted in getting audiences back for repeat viewings, which no doubt contributed to its gargantuan box office numbers.
The goodwill garnered by Sense would cause a breathless anticipation for Night’s follow-up, which hit multiplexes just fifteen months later. In November 2000 came Unbreakable, with Bruce Willis returning in the starring role and assisted by Samuel L. Jackson and Robin Wright Penn. As much as I love Bruce Willis, he’s never been a consistent box office draw when you examine his filmography. Shyamalan’s name propelled Unbreakable to a fantastic $30 million opening. However, the picture showed the first chink in the armor of Night’s invincibility. Audiences weren’t thrilled with it, at least not anywhere to the extent of Sixth Sense. While moviegoers were blown away with the “he’s been dead the whole time” shock value of that surprise ending, the revelation of Bruce’s character in Unbreakable being a superhero didn’t wow folks. Unbreakable would earn $95 million domestically – a far cry from its predecessor’s numbers. It would receive mixed reviews and is at 68% on the Tomato meter.
My take? I really dug Unbreakable. I found it to be a very clever superhero origin story and subsequent viewing have elevated my view of it. Like most first-time watchers, I found myself confused at the direction the film took in my theater experience. But I’ve grown to appreciate Unbreakable and consider it to be a worthwhile experience that once again features assured direction and a fine Willis performance.
Less than two years later, Night would be back in Sixth Sense territory with another audience and critical triumph. Arriving in the summer of 2002, Signs was maybe or maybe not an alien invasion flick as the trailers toyed with us in brilliant fashion. Starring Mel Gibson and Joaquin Phoenix as farmers who notice strange crop dust patterns in their field, Signs was a suspenseful and seriously clever genre pic that delivered. When we find out that Signs is indeed an alien invasion pic via that birthday party in Mexico, it is film magic of the highest order. This is my favorite Shyamalan movie and one of 2002’s greatest titles. Signs would bring in a domestic gross of $227 million – less than Sixth Sense, but still terrific. It’s Tomato Meter is at 74%.
Two years later, the summer of 2004 would bring The Village, set in the 19th century and featuring creatures in the woods terrorizing a village. Or… is the movie about that? The Village would feature much of what we had come to expect from Night’s works, especially the surprise ending. However, it was The Village that also began to accentuate issues with his pictures: actors delivering their lines with zero emotion, dialogue that could be laughable at spots, and pacing that took a little too much time. The director’s name would allow The Village a $114 million domestic gross. Not bad, but nowhere near Sense or Signs levels. And audiences disliked it even more than Unbreakable. Critics weren’t wild about it either with a 43% Rotten Tomatoes total. I certainly found it to be the weakest of his mainstream features up to that point, but I thought it was OK overall. Still, The Village was the origin point of a downward spiral that has yet to reverse.
The summer of 2006 would end Night’s solid box office run and it would decimate his standing with critics as well. Lady in the Water, starring Paul Giamatti and Village costar Bryce Dallas Howard, landed with a thud. Focusing on an apartment complex maintenance man who finds a water nymph in the pool, Lady was simply bizarre. In many spots, it was badly written and featured truly laughable dialogue along the way. It tanked at the box office with only $42 million domestically, as well as an embarrassing 24% on Rotten Tomatoes. The excitement that Night had built with The Sixth Sense and Signs was gone and his name connected to a movie was no longer a selling point.
Night’s 2008 summer film The Happening starring Mark Wahlberg wouldn’t help the situation. While the picture, which is basically about plants turning people into homicidal maniacs, outdid Lady‘s gross with $64 million – audiences hated it on the same level. The critics were brutal and a 17% Tomato meter evidenced that. There are times watching The Happening where you’re totally cracking up unintentionally. Pretty sure that’s not what Shyamalan was going for. Wahlberg, a very talented actor, is also just awful in it. The combination of Lady in the Water and The Happening had severely soured Night’s reputation, less than a decade after The Sixth Sense made him one of the most famous directors on Earth.
Shyamalan would move away from scary and twisty thrillers with The Last Airbender, released in the summer of 2010. He would also move away from his screenplays being based on original material. Airbender was based on a Nickelodeon series and aimed squarely at a kid/young adult audience. Somewhat surprisingly, the picture grossed a rock solid $131 million domestically, Night’s highest earner statewide since Signs. It is worth noting that its American gross was less than its budget, which was a hefty $150 million. The movie would do little to improve Night’s reputation, however. Only 6% – yes six percent – of critics deemed it worthy of view on Rotten Tomatoes.
And that brings us to this weekend’s release of After Earth. This film is not based on Night’s original idea… it’s actually based on Will Smith’s idea that he brought to the director. Shyamalan did co-write the script for the sci-fi pic that comes with a $130 million budget. After Earth is notable in its advertising campaign. As it should, it focuses mainly on the fact that it’s a Will Smith sci-fi flick. The difference for Night this time around? Nowhere does it focus on him. At all. It’s almost as if the studio doesn’t want you to know he directed it… like it’s more of a hindrance than a selling point. It was less than a decade ago that the possibility of that would have been ludicrous.
Times have changed for Night, however. And the question that will be answered this Friday is whether After Earth continues the bad news for the director or reverses the audience and critical distaste for him.
A list actor Tom Cruise dives into B pulp movie territory with Christopher McQuarrie’s Jack Reacher, a film with style to spare but plenty of flaws to go along with it.
Reacher is based on a series of novels by Lee Child, which I’ve never read. Apparently the character in the novel is 6’5″, which is a bit of a stretch for Tommy boy who is like 4’3″ in real life (give or take). When a group of five random people are gunned down by a sniper in Pittsburgh, the arrested perp instructs defense attorney Helen (Rosemund Pike) to “get Jack Reacher”. Turns out Reacher is an ex-military cop who has a history with the arrested party and doesn’t believe the shooting massacre is as open and shut as the evidence suggests.
The picture follows Cruise along on his investigation to get to the truth. Per usual, no one can be trusted, from the detective heading the case (David Oyelowo) to the district attorney (Richard Jenkins) who happens to be Helen’s dad. There’s also a shadowy character named The Zec (Werner Herzog), a Russian gangster and his band of thugs.
For a good portion of Reacher‘s running time, McQuarrie keeps us intrigued with his polished direction and often effective B movie dialogue. McQuarrie has some credibility in this field as the screenwriter of 1995’s B movie classic The Usual Suspects (he also co-wrote Cruise’s solid 2008 thriller Valkyrie).
However, the plot of Reacher ends up not being terribly engrossing. The character of The Zec is a truly fascinating one who is given virtually no screen time, but famed German director Herzog makes the most of his limited role. None of the other supporting performances are bad but they’re not memorable either. I had to rack my brain trying to remember what else I’d seen Rosemund Pike in. Turns out she was a Bond love interest in the worst 007 flick ever, Die Another Day. She didn’t leave much of an impression there and she doesn’t here either.
By the time Robert Duvall shows up as a grizzled old Ohio gun range owner who helps Jack out, I found myself reaching for my cell phone to check the time. Duvall’s role is ultimately kinda pointless and seems written in simply to reunite the stars of Days of Thunder.
This is Cruise’s show and he acquits himself nicely. While he may not resemble the character in the books, Cruise is first-rate and believable in the role. McQuarrie and Cruise hold our attention for quite a while, but Jack Reacher turns out not worthy of its bloated 130 minute running time. If you’re a Cruise fan, I’d recommend a view just to see something a little different from the star. Be prepared to be a little disappointed though, as I was.
SPOILER ALERT: If you have yet to see Silver Linings Playbook, two pieces of advice: go watch it right now. After you do, read this post. If you have seen it, read on…
David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook is the kind of movie that restores your faith in movies. It is in many ways wholly original while also using time tested film conventions in fantastic ways.
It is filled with great performances. This is not only a showcase for Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence in her Oscar-winning role, but also for Robert De Niro, Jacki Weaver, and Chris Tucker, who for far too long only played alongside Jackie Chan in Rush Hour flicks. We need to see more of him.
The film is a triumph of direction by Russell, one of the most exciting filmmakers of his generation. He knows how to bring an electric sense of movie making to a scene. The climactic dance scene between Cooper and Lawrence is one example of many. Russell’s style brings a feeling of true nail-biting suspense… to a mid-level regional dance competition in Philadelphia. Not an easy thing to do.
The picture takes us on a journey bringing together two lost souls, Pat (Cooper) and Tiffany (Lawrence). They both have a vast array of issues, to say the least. Pat is suffering from mental health problems, some of which is due to his broken marriage. Tiffany is still trying to recover from the death of her husband and is failing most of the time.
All the characters in Silver Linings Playbook are flawed. You know, like real people. De Niro plays Pat’s dad. He’s a deeply superstitious football fanatic whose character defects may have contributed to his son’s own issues. Jacki Weaver plays Pat’s mom and she struggles with finding the right balance for how to help her son (and her husband). Chris Tucker was at Pat’s mental health facility that he was committed to. He’s chock full of issues, too. And even the secondary characters like Tiffany’s sister and her husband are stuck in a marriage that seems to be going downhill.
Pat and Tiffany find one another and become connected through agreeing to enter a dance competition together. Their motives are at first self-serving. Tiffany basically blackmails Pat into doing it by promising to give a letter to his estranged wife. You see, there’s a restraining order between them. Tiffany seems to just want the company of Pat and this is her way of achieving it.
When we reach the wonderful climactic dance scene, we are left so happy by their ability to pull it off. Plus it’s pretty damn funny. In a lesser movie, that dance would’ve been some masterpiece of movement that left us floored. Not here. It’s, well, realistic. And that makes it even better.
The big question we’re left with is whether Pat and Tiffany end up together. In a lesser movie, there would be no doubt. In a movie this original and at times unexpected, we really don’t know. We get our answer in an absolutely beautiful scene between them. Without going over every aspect, this scene leaves us as an audience totally satisfied. And when Pat reveals his love for Tiffany, he presents her with a letter that she begins to read aloud and then he finishes it. He knows the letter by heart because as he reveals to her, “I wrote that a week ago.” We realize that Pat has wanted to be with Tiffany for longer than we suspected. Longer than she suspected. And that line and those six words left me with a smile on my face that lasted until after the credits rolled.
Silver Linings Playbook presents us with two flawed and imperfect people whose flaws and imperfections compliment one another’s in a perfect way. What’s more romantic than that? The film is one of the best movies in recent years. And those six words uttered by Pat to Tiffany are another example of Movie Perfection.
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