This coming Friday, Disney brings us Maleficent, a live-action pic focusing on the well-known villainess from Sleeping Beauty. In the title role is Angelina Jolie, who will aim for (and most likely get) her highest live-action debut of all time.
Costarring Elle Fanning and Sharlto Copley, we’ve seen this type of film work at the box office before when Snow White and the Huntsman got off to a $56.2 million start just two summers ago. With an estimated budget of $180 million, Disney clearly believes it has a winner on their hands and they’re probably right. Maleficent should succeed in bringing in kid viewers as well as an impressive female audience.
Jolie’s current largest opening is Wanted from 2008, which made $50.9M in its debut. As I see it, Maleficent should certainly top that number. I feel it will also surpass Snow White‘s gross from 2012. The marketing campaign has been strong and I’m predicting an initial gross in the mid-60s makes a lot of sense.
Maleficent opening weekend prediction: $66.2 million
For my A Million Ways to Die in the West prediction, click here:
Last summer I wrote two blog posts discussing that season’s top films (and flops) from 20 years ago and 10 ten years ago. In that spirit, we shall do it again beginning with the summer movie season of 1994 some two decades in our rearview.
While we may be focused on Godzilla and the X-Men and Spider-Man and Transformers and not yet trained dragons in 2014, summer 1994 proved that when it came to predicting the #1 highest grossing picture, you never knew what you were going to get.
As I did last year, I will start with the top ten grossing pictures from 10 to 1 and then discuss some other notable titles, as well as some flops.
10. Wolf
Domestic Gross: $65 million
Mike Nichols may be known more for dramatic titles such as The Graduate, Carnal Knowledge, and Silkwood – but in 1994 he turned to the horror genre with Wolf, a mature retelling of the Wolfman tale. He got some big names to contribute – Jack Nicholson, Michelle Pfeiffer, and James Spader. The film received mostly positive reviews and I count myself as a fan.
9. The Client
Domestic Gross: $92 million
Josh Grisham fever was its peak at this time as The Firm with Tom Cruise and The Pelican Brief with Julia Roberts were blockbusters the previous year. The Client with Susan Sarandon and Tommy Lee Jones continued the hot streak even though it didn’t reach the grosses of the aforementioned pics. Sarandon received an Oscar nomination for her role and the movie spawned a short-lived TV series one year later.
8. Maverick
Domestic Gross: $101 million
Mel Gibson reteamed with his Lethal Weapon series director Richard Donner for this western/action/comedy based on the 1950s TV show. Jodie Foster and original series star James Garner rounded out the cast. Critical reaction was mostly positive and while the $100M haul was solid, its gross was a bit on the low end of domestic expectations.
7. The Mask
Domestic Gross: $119 million
In February of 1994, Jim Carrey became a massive box office force with his starring debut Ace Ventura: Pet Detective. This special effects driven comedy would go even further in solidifying that status. It also introduced the world to Cameron Diaz, in her first major movie role. A sequel in 2005 Son of the Mask minus Carrey was quickly and deservedly forgotten.
6. Speed
Domestic Gross: $121 million
A surprise hit – the well-constructed and suspenseful Speed from director Jan de Bont turned Keanu Reeves into an action star and gave Sandra Bullock her breakout role. Dennis Hopper was a rock solid villain, too. Like The Mask, this too spawned a ridiculed sequel in 1997 minus Reeves.
5. Clear and Present Danger
Domestic Gross: $122 million
Harrison Ford was fresh off his megahit The Fugitive when his second Jack Ryan flick Clear and Present Danger managed to out gross its predecessor Patriot Games two years earlier by $40 million dollars. It remains the highest grossing Jack Ryan picture domestically.
4. The Flintstones
Domestic Gross: $130 million
Many expected the film version of the famous Hanna-Barbera cartoon to be the summer’s top grosser with its huge marketing tie-ins. It didn’t turn out that way, though its $130M take was decent. Reviews were mostly bad, however, and while Universal planned this as a franchise – we would never see John Goodman as Fred, Elizabeth Perkins as Wilma, Rick Moranis as Barney, or Rosie O’Donnell as Betty return. A 2000 “sequel” with an all-new cast fizzled.
3. True Lies
Domestic Gross: $146 million
The previous summer, Arnold Schwarzenegger had experienced an unexpected box office flop with Last Action Hero. His reteaming with Terminator director James Cameron in this action/comedy got him back in the good graces of audiences. This well-reviewed flick also featured a fine performance from Jamie Lee Curtis as Schwarzenegger’s wife who’s oblivious that he’s an international super spy. The pic also has the distinction of featuring career best work from Tom Arnold!
2. The Lion King
Domestic Gross: $312 million
Disney was five years into its animation resurgence (The Little Mermaid, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin) when this came along and out earned them all. A classic from the moment it was released, The Lion King remained the highest grossing traditionally animated picture until just last year when Frozen overtook it. The film is also well-remembered for its Elton John soundtrack.
1. Forrest Gump
Domestic Gross: $329 million
If you would’ve polled 100 people in early 1994 as to what would be the summer’s biggest earner, I’ll venture to guess nobody would’ve said Forrest Gump. The journey through history of a simple yet remarkable man captured the hearts of audiences across the U.S. upon its July release. The reward? Besides being the year’s largest hit, it also earned Oscars for Best Picture, Director (Robert Zemeckis) and Actor (Tom Hanks), earning the performer his second Academy Awards in consecutive years following his 1993 Philadelphia victory. It also spawned a whole lotta catchphrases.
Outside of the Top Ten, here are some other notables flicks from the season 20 years ago:
12. The Crow
Arriving in theaters more than a year after star Brandon Lee was tragically killed on the set of the film, The Crow resonated with audiences to the tune of a $50 million gross.
13. Natural Born Killers
Oliver Stone’s wild tale of media sensationalism gave Woody Harrelson his first acclaimed dramatic role. The controversial pic, costarring Juliette Lewis, Tommy Lee Jones, and Robert Downey, Jr., earned a solid $50 million.
And now… for the flops of the season:
City Slickers II: The Legend of Curly’s Gold whiffed with both critics and audiences. While the 1991 original earned $124 million, the sequel managed a sad $43 million. Sequelitis also caught up with Eddie Murphy as Beverly Hills Cop III also was drubbed by critics and viewers alike. The third installment took in $42 million while the first earned $234 million in 1984 and II made $153 million in 1987.
Universal Pictures was hoping to turn The Shadow with Alec Baldwin into a franchise, but its meager $32 million gross ended that prospect in a hurry.
Wyatt Earp starring Kevin Costner was looked at as a potential blockbuster but mixed reviews and the fact that well-received Earp flick Tombstone had come six months prior meant this only made a paltry $25 million.
Finally, while Julia Roberts had already starred in successful rom coms – it turned out filmgoers weren’t clamoring to see her chemistry with Nick Nolte in the flop I Love Trouble, which petered out at $30 million.
And there you have it, folks! That’s what was happening 20 years ago at multiplexes across the nation. I’ll be back with my overview of summer 2004 very soon!
Memorial Day weekend 2014 at the box office brings the potentially explosive opening of X-Men: Days of Future Past and the Adam Sandler/Drew Barrymore rom com Blended. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I’m not quite buying some prognosticators claiming X-Men will make $125 million over the four day holiday frame, but my prediction isn’t too far off from that. Meanwhile, I look for Blended to have an opening on the lower end of typical Sandler debuts.
As for holdovers, percentage drops are typically smaller during Memorial weekend so I see Godzilla, Neighbors, and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 having relatively decent holds.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend top five and their four day holiday totals:
1. X-Men: Days of Future Past
Predicted Gross: $114.3 million
2. Godzilla
Predicted Gross: $50.6 million (representing a drop of 45%)
3. Blended
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
4. Neighbors
Predicted Gross: $18.8 million (representing a drop of 24%)
5. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (May 16-18)
While many predictions for holdovers were solid over the past weekend, I didn’t give Godzilla near enough credit while giving Million Dollar Arm with Jon Hamm way too much credit.
Godzilla stomped into theaters to the tune of $93.1 million, well beyond my $77.3M estimate. The monster pic managed the second highest debut of the year behind Captain America: The Winter Soldier and virtually guarantees we’ll see a sequel featuring the jolly green giant in the near future.
Seth Rogen’s comedy Neighbors dropped to second with $25 million in its sophomore frame, right in line with my $24.3M projection. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was third in its third weekend with $16.8 million, on pace with my $16.6M projection.
Million Dollar Arm, the Disney sports drama, flopped in its opening with a meager $10.5 million, way below my generous $23.4M estimate. Clearly the film simply failed to resonate in its marketing campaign.
Rounding out the top five in weekend #4 was Cameron Diaz’s The Other Woman with $6.3 million, just over my $5.7M prediction.
That’s all for now folks! I’ll have results posted for Memorial weekend next week.
While many filmgoers will choose the X-Men for their Memorial Day weekend entertainment, Warner Bros. attempts some counterprogramming with the rom com Blended which reunites Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore. The pair already has a couple of box office hits under their belt together with 1998’s The Wedding Singer ($80.2M domestic gross) and 2004’s 50 First Dates ($120.9M domestic gross).
Costarring Joel McHale, Terry Crews, Kevin Nealon, and Shazaam himself Shaquille O’Neal, Blended seems to be flying a bit under the radar with all the blockbusters such as Godzilla and X-Men: Days of Future Past in the marketplace. Sandler’s pictures have been a mixed bag as of late. While last summer’s Grown Ups 2 was a hit with a $41.5M opening, recent pics Jack and Jill and That’s My Boy have disappointed with respective openings of $25M and $13.4M. The inclusion of Barrymore with Sandler could help, as both of their previous efforts are well-regarded. However, trailers and TV spots for Blended have been rather unimpressive in my view.
If Blended managed to reach what Sandler’s last romantic comedy opened at, Warner Bros. should consider that a success. That would be Just Go With It, which debuted with $30.5M in February 2011. Blended will have the advantage of a four day Memorial Day weekend tally and yet I feel it will struggle to gain major traction with audiences. I’m predicting a holiday opening in the quarter century range is the likeliest scenario.
Blended four day opening weekend prediction: $24.9 million
For my X-Men: Days of Future Past prediction, click here:
The Memorial Day weekend box office gets underway with X-Men: Days of Future Past, the seventh installment in the venerable Fox franchise. It’s probably safe to say that audience anticipation for this one is the highest it’s been in the series in a while. Why? That would be the combination of the casts from the original X-Men franchise alongside the group from 2011’s X-Men: First Class. That means Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellen matching up against their younger counterparts James McAvoy and Michael Fassbender. It also means Hugh Jackman returning as Wolverine with Jennifer Lawrence as Mystique, as well as Halle Berry, Ellen Page, Nicholas Hault, and Shawn Ashmore.
Director Bryan Singer, who was behind the camera for the franchise’s critically acclaimed first two installments, is back in the mix, too. This has all led to some box office prognosticators forecasting a healthy $125 million four-day holiday opening for the pic. In my view, that seems just a bit high. However, it’s worth noting that I’ve been quite a bit under on both Neighbors and Godzilla‘s debuts so far this summer season. As far as Memorial Day weekends go, the champ is 2007’s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, which earned $139.8 million. The silver prize goes to 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull, which took in $126.9M. Last year’s holiday winner was Fast and Furious 6 with its $117M haul. To me, that seems like a more reasonable ballpark for what Future Past could open at.
In order for the film to break the all-time franchise record, it will need to outdo the $122.8M that X-Men: The Last Stand made over Memorial Day weekend in 2006. It’s certainly possible, but my estimate puts it a bit below that. Either way, this should certainly far outshine the $55.1 million made by First Class three summers ago and set up nicely for the next planned installment, X-Men: Apocalypse, slated for 2016.
X-Men: Days of Future Past four day opening weekend prediction: $114.3 million
It’s the battle of AMC stars Bryan Cranston and Jon Hamm as the summer season rolls along entering weekend #3 with monster flick Godzilla and Disney sports drama Million Dollar Arm entering the marketplace. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Godzilla with Cranston should very easily dominate while a more interesting scenario could play out for the runner-up spot. Last weekend’s champ Neighbors had a bigger than expected opening (more on that below), however it received only a B Cinemascore grade which is lower than I would’ve thought. That means it could be in store for a larger sophomore drop-off than I might have earlier anticipated. This could set it up for a close showdown with Million Dollar Arm, starring Hamm.
As for the rest of the top five, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 should experience another healthy fall in its third weekend while The Other Woman rounds out the group.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Godzilla
Predicted Gross: $77.3 million
2. Neighbors
Predicted Gross: $24.3 million (representing a drop of 50%)
3. Million Dollar Arm
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)
5. The Other Woman
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (May 9-11)
The Seth Rogen/Zac Efron comedy Neighbors scored a truly impressive debut with $49 million, well above my $37.3M projection. The well-reviewed frat pic scored the fifth highest R rated comedy opening of all time, after The Hangover Part II, Sex and the City, Ted, and Jackass 3-D.
Dropping to second was The Amazing Spider-Man 2, plummeting a healthy 61% with $35.5 million, below my $40.6M estimate. The Spidey sequel has not met expectations domestically and it’s on course to certainly be the lowest grossing pic in the franchise yet. Sony and Marvel might be in for a major brainstorming session in order for the planned third and fourth installments to reverse this troubling trend.
The Other Woman with Cameron Diaz was third with $9.6 million in weekend #3, holding up stronger than my $7.6M prediction. In fourth, Heaven Is for Real also performed better than my prediction with my $7.4 million (I said $5M). The fifth and sixth spots went to sequel holdovers that I didn’t include in my top six estimates: Captain America: The Winter Soldier took in $5.7 million and Rio 2 made $5 million.
This means the other two newbies this weekend posted lackluster results. The faith based Moms’ Night Out was seventh with $4.3 million, slightly under my $5.1M projection. The animated Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return tanked in eighth with $3.7 million, below my moderate $5.7M estimate.
Disney will attempt some counterprogramming this weekend as the studio opens its real life sports drama Million Dollar Arm starring “Mad Men” lead Jon Hamm. The pic is based on the story of sports agents traveling to India to recruit future major league baseball players. The supporting cast includes Bill Paxton, Alan Arkin, and Life of Pi actor Suraj Sharma.
The studio behind Million Dollar Arm is no stranger to marketing sports related dramas. Both Miracle in 2004 and Invincible in 2006 performed well and got off the ground with $19M and $17M debuts, respectively. Arm has received a solid marketing campaign and might serve as a good alternative to those not watching Godzilla stomp back into theaters. Having Jon Hamm featured in his first true lead role doesn’t hurt either and word of mouth is positive, with Disney claiming this is one of its highest testing pictures in years.
The grosses I previously mentioned for Miracle and Invincible should be the likely low mark for what this can achieve. However, I suspect a gross in the low to mid 20s is even more possible.
Million Dollar Arm opening weekend prediction: $23.4 million
The giant green monster is back in theaters this Friday with Godzilla from director Gareth Edwards. This is certainly being seen as one of summer 2014s’s tent pole releases and Warner Bros. is certainly hoping for massive results.
Godzilla has been assisted from some truly terrific trailers and a healthy marketing campaign. Obviously, the name recognition of the title character is off the charts. The real people cast includes Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Elizabeth Olsen, Ken Watanabe, Juliette Binoche, Sally Hawkins, and, yes… Walter freaking White himself… Bryan Cranston! Not everything Godzilla related over the recent past was met with positive results. Sixteen summers ago, Roland Emmerich’s highly publicized Godzilla pic was widely expected to be a huge blockbuster, especially after the director had hit gold with Independence Day two years prior. Instead, it managed only an OK $136 million gross and was widely panned by critics and audiences alike.
The 2014 version is unlikely to suffer the same fate. Reviews so far have generally been fairly positive to mixed. I don’t see Godzilla opening in the neighborhood of the Captain America or Amazing Spider-Man sequels which both topped $90 million. For Godzilla, anything below $70M would likely be seen as disappointing. It is worth noting that much of Godzilla‘s total gross will come from international markets. The most sensible scenario domestically is a gross just north of $75M, though it could certainly surprise. However, I’ll play it rather safe with this pick.
Godzilla opening weekend prediction: $77.3 million
We enter the second weekend of the summer 2014 movie season with three new pictures opening: the Seth Rogen/Zac Efron frat comedy Neighbors, the animated pic Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return, and the faith based comedy Moms’ Night Out. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
Both Oz and Moms’ Night Out could exceed expectations, but I’m estimating rather muted debuts for each. It’s Neighbors that could truly challenge last weekend’s champ The Amazing Spider-Man 2 for the #1 slot. I believe it’ll be close, but ultimately I think Spidey prevails… barely.
Holdovers The Other Woman and Heaven Is for Real should experience drops in the 40s range. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top six:
1. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Predicted Gross: $40.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
2. Neighbors
Predicted Gross: $37.3 million
3. The Other Woman
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
5. Moms’ Night Out
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
6. Heaven Is for Real
Predicted Gross: $5 million (representing a drop of 42%)
Box Office Results (May 2-4)
The summer season got underway and I finally had a pretty damn solid weekend of predictin’!
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 got off to a $91.6 million opening – right in line with my $90.1M projection. This is a solid start for the web slinger, even though it doesn’t match what the original trilogy with Tobey Maguire managed to accomplish. While some prognosticators thought it would top $100M, its opening marks 2014’s second highest rollout following Captain America: The Winter Soldier.
Cameron Diaz’s The Other Woman dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $14.4 million… I said $14.3M (gold star)!
Heaven Is for Real was third with $8.6 million… I said $8.5M (gold star 2)!
The rest of the top five was rounded out by Captain America: The Winter Soldier at 4 with $7.7M (a bit below my $9M prediction) and Rio 2 at 5 with $7.7M (just below my $8.3M estimate).
For those who like their comedy considerably less raunchy, this Friday brings us the faith based pic Moms’ Night Out featuring Sarah Drew, Sean Astin, Patricia Heaton, and country singer Trace Adkins. It looks to serve as counter programming to Neighbors, which should be poised for a big opening this weekend.
In case you haven’t noticed, faith based movies have experienced a solid 2014 with titles like Son of God, God’s Not Dead, and Heaven Is for Real all posting impressive numbers. This one’s a little different, though. For starters – it’s only scheduled to open on a relatively low 1000 screens which should damper its premiere gross. Secondly, the marketing push for Moms’ Night Out seems a bit quieter than the aforementioned pics.
This may have the advantage of bringing out some female audience members but with the limited number of venues it’s playing in, Moms’ Night Out shouldn’t approach double digits and will likely reach only in the mid single digits.
Moms’ Night Out opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
