The giant green monster is back in theaters this Friday with Godzilla from director Gareth Edwards. This is certainly being seen as one of summer 2014s’s tent pole releases and Warner Bros. is certainly hoping for massive results.
Godzilla has been assisted from some truly terrific trailers and a healthy marketing campaign. Obviously, the name recognition of the title character is off the charts. The real people cast includes Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Elizabeth Olsen, Ken Watanabe, Juliette Binoche, Sally Hawkins, and, yes… Walter freaking White himself… Bryan Cranston! Not everything Godzilla related over the recent past was met with positive results. Sixteen summers ago, Roland Emmerich’s highly publicized Godzilla pic was widely expected to be a huge blockbuster, especially after the director had hit gold with Independence Day two years prior. Instead, it managed only an OK $136 million gross and was widely panned by critics and audiences alike.
The 2014 version is unlikely to suffer the same fate. Reviews so far have generally been fairly positive to mixed. I don’t see Godzilla opening in the neighborhood of the Captain America or Amazing Spider-Man sequels which both topped $90 million. For Godzilla, anything below $70M would likely be seen as disappointing. It is worth noting that much of Godzilla‘s total gross will come from international markets. The most sensible scenario domestically is a gross just north of $75M, though it could certainly surprise. However, I’ll play it rather safe with this pick.
Godzilla opening weekend prediction: $77.3 million
We enter the second weekend of the summer 2014 movie season with three new pictures opening: the Seth Rogen/Zac Efron frat comedy Neighbors, the animated pic Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return, and the faith based comedy Moms’ Night Out. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
Both Oz and Moms’ Night Out could exceed expectations, but I’m estimating rather muted debuts for each. It’s Neighbors that could truly challenge last weekend’s champ The Amazing Spider-Man 2 for the #1 slot. I believe it’ll be close, but ultimately I think Spidey prevails… barely.
Holdovers The Other Woman and Heaven Is for Real should experience drops in the 40s range. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top six:
1. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Predicted Gross: $40.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
2. Neighbors
Predicted Gross: $37.3 million
3. The Other Woman
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
5. Moms’ Night Out
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
6. Heaven Is for Real
Predicted Gross: $5 million (representing a drop of 42%)
Box Office Results (May 2-4)
The summer season got underway and I finally had a pretty damn solid weekend of predictin’!
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 got off to a $91.6 million opening – right in line with my $90.1M projection. This is a solid start for the web slinger, even though it doesn’t match what the original trilogy with Tobey Maguire managed to accomplish. While some prognosticators thought it would top $100M, its opening marks 2014’s second highest rollout following Captain America: The Winter Soldier.
Cameron Diaz’s The Other Woman dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $14.4 million… I said $14.3M (gold star)!
Heaven Is for Real was third with $8.6 million… I said $8.5M (gold star 2)!
The rest of the top five was rounded out by Captain America: The Winter Soldier at 4 with $7.7M (a bit below my $9M prediction) and Rio 2 at 5 with $7.7M (just below my $8.3M estimate).
For those who like their comedy considerably less raunchy, this Friday brings us the faith based pic Moms’ Night Out featuring Sarah Drew, Sean Astin, Patricia Heaton, and country singer Trace Adkins. It looks to serve as counter programming to Neighbors, which should be poised for a big opening this weekend.
In case you haven’t noticed, faith based movies have experienced a solid 2014 with titles like Son of God, God’s Not Dead, and Heaven Is for Real all posting impressive numbers. This one’s a little different, though. For starters – it’s only scheduled to open on a relatively low 1000 screens which should damper its premiere gross. Secondly, the marketing push for Moms’ Night Out seems a bit quieter than the aforementioned pics.
This may have the advantage of bringing out some female audience members but with the limited number of venues it’s playing in, Moms’ Night Out shouldn’t approach double digits and will likely reach only in the mid single digits.
Moms’ Night Out opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return is an animated feature from the upstart Summertime Entertainment opening Friday. It comes with a healthy estimated budget of $70 million. It’s based on The Wonderful Wizard of Oz by L. Frank Baum and I think we’re all familiar with the massively successful pictures his works have spawned. It features the voices of “Glee” actress Lea Michele, as well as Kelsey Grammer, Dan Aykroyd, Jim Belushi, Martin Short, and Patrick Stewart.
This begs the question: is it just me or does this thing seem to be gaining very little traction with audiences? I would offer that the marketing push for Oz has been relatively minor, even though it’s scheduled to open on a hefty 2800+ screens. Perhaps the Oz affiliation alone could propel this to a double digit opening, but I don’t even think it gets to that minor distinction. There is a shortage of kiddie related pics now that Rio 2 has made the bulk of its gross (though The Amazing Spider-Man 2 should still be doing quite well in weekend #2).
I’m predicting that family audiences will mostly ignore Dorothy’s Return and decide that when it comes to spending money on this, there’s no place like staying home.
Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million
This Friday, the R rated frat comedy Neighbors featuring Seth Rogen, Zac Efron, Rose Byrne, and Dave Franco hits theaters and I’m predicting audiences are going to be quite friendly to it. The buzz for the pic has been overwhelmingly positive as it currently stands at a terrific 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. It also helps tremendously that the trailers and TV sports are pretty hilarious (I laugh every time I see the air bag gag).
Neighbors could set some personal records for the personnel involved here. Rogen’s biggest live-action opening is The Green Hornet, which debuted to $33.5 million in 2011. I believe this could surpass that and in fact, it may even challenge The Amazing Spider-Man2 for the #1 spot this weekend. As I see it, Neighbors has the potential to reach $40M plus, but ultimately I think a debut in the mid to high 30s is the likely scenario. If reviews are to be used to as a guide, this could also be in for a long and successful run ahead and could certainly be one of summer 2014’s highest earning comedies in a season chock full of them.
Neighbors opening weekend prediction: $37.3 million
For my Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return prediction, click here:
Rocky over Taxi Driver. Ordinary People over Raging Bull. Dances with Wolves over GoodFellas. These are all examples where, in hindsight, pictures directed by Martin Scorsese and the auteur himself probably should have received Oscars wins and not just nominations. In 2002, Scorsese’s Gangs of New York was seen as a Best Picture frontrunner until Chicago stole its thunder. The same held true two years later with The Aviator until Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby had a late surge and took the prize. By 2006, Scorsese was undoubtedly the most acclaimed director whose films had never won the gold statue. And neither had he.
This would finally come to an end with The Departed, his crime thriller that won Best Picture and this kicks off my 2006 Oscar History.
The other four nominees were Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Babel, Clint Eastwood’s Letters from Iwo Jima, Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Feris’s Little Miss Sunshine, and Stephen Frears’s The Queen. The voters got it right. The Departed was the Best Picture of the year.
As for other pictures I would’ve considered: Alfonso Cuaron’s terrific Children of Men, Guillermo del Toro’s visual feast Pan’s Labyrinth, the Ryan Gosling drama Half Nelson, and Todd Field’s Little Children. And for an outside the box pic – why not Casino Royale, which brought the Bond franchise back in grand fashion and ranks as my 2nd all-time 007 pic after From Russia with Love?
Scorsese, as mentioned before, would win Director over Inarritu, Eastwood, Frears, and Paul Greengrass for United 93. Once again – my list would’ve found room for Cuaron and del Toro.
In the Best Actor race, Forest Whitaker expectedly won for his performance as Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. Other nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio for Blood Diamond (many thought he’d get nominated instead for Departed), Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson, Peter O’Toole for Venus (his final nomination), and Will Smith for The Pursuit of Happyness.
Once again, my ballot might’ve listed Daniel Craig for his electric take on James Bond. Others to consider: Clive Owen (Children of Men), Aaron Eckhart (Thank You for Smoking), or Matt Damon’s work in The Departed.
No surprise in the Best Actress race as Helen Mirren’s work as Queen Elizabeth II was honored in The Queen over Penelope Cruz (Volver), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal), Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada), and Kate Winslet (Little Children).
That’s a strong Actress category, but I would’ve also had Natalie Portman’s fine performance in V for Vendetta included.
The only true surprise at the 2006 Oscars occurred in the Supporting Actor category where Eddie Murphy’s acclaimed work in Dreamgirls was expected to win. Instead the Academy honored Alan Arkin’s performance in Little Miss Sunshine. Other nominees: Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children), Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), and Mark Wahlberg (The Departed).
Instead of Wahlberg, many believed it would be Jack Nicholson for Departed that received the nomination. I was cool with it – considering Nicholson had already won three times before and this marked Wahlberg’s first nod. Other names I would have possibly included: Steve Carell (Little Miss Sunshine), Stanley Tucci (The Devil Wears Prada), Michael Sheen (The Queen), and for his brilliant comedic work – John C. Reilly in Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby.
Jennifer Hudson had the distinction of being the first “American Idol” contestant turned Oscar winner with her lauded role in Dreamgirls – winning out over Babel actresses Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, young Abigail Breslin from Little Miss Sunshine, and Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal.
My list would have absolutely included Shareeka Epps with her fabulous work in Half Nelson and probably Vera Farmiga in The Departed.
And that’s your 2006 Oscar history! I’ll be back soon with 2007 where another beloved director (s) would take home their first Oscar gold.
This weekend the summer 2014 movie season officially gets underway and it’s mega-sequel The Amazing Spider-Man 2 leading the charge. You can read my detailed prediction post on its prospects here:
Week after week, we will see huge profile releases after another. As for weekend #1, Spidey should easily out gross the rest of the top five combined and then some. As for spring holdovers, I look for last weekend’s 1-4 (The Other Woman, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Heaven Is for Real, Rio 2) to all drop in the high 30s-mid 40s range.
And with that, my estimates for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Predicted Gross: $90.1 million
2. The Other Woman
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 42%)
3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 44%)
4. Heaven Is for Real
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Rio 2
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 39%)
Box Office Results (April 25-27)
As for the final weekend of spring, The Other Woman with Cameron Diaz debuted very solidly with $24.7 million, outshining my $18.1M estimate. The rom com clearly hit with its female target audience.
Holdovers occupied slots 2-4. Captain America: The Winter Soldier took second with $16.2 in its fourth weekend, above my $14.3M prediction. Heaven Is for Real held up well in its second weekend for third with $14.3 million, topping my $13M projection. Rio 2 was fourth with $13.8 million, just below my $14.5M prediction.
The Paul Walker action pic Brick Mansions opened in fifth with a weak $9.5 million – not reaching my $12.3M estimate. And the horror flick The Quiet Ones absolutely tanked with only $3.8 million for a seventh place showing, well below my generous $9.4M guess.
That’s all for now! I’ll be back soon as we see just how well Spidey does!
Two summers back, the Spidey franchise was rebooted with Andrew Garfield in the title role and summer 2014 kicks off with its sequel The Amazing Spider-Man 2 on Friday. Emma Stone is back as Gwen Stacy as is Sally Field as Aunt May, with a trio of villains joining the mix. They are Jamie Foxx as Electro, Paul Giamatti as Russian mobster Aleksei Sytsevich, and Dane DeHaan as Harry Osborn, who will likely become the Green Goblin at some point. Marc Webb, who helmed the original, is back behind the camera.
Interestingly, among the four current Spidey flicks, each has grossed less than the previous one. Here’s the stats:
Spider-Man (2002): $403 million
Spider-Man 2 (2004): $373 million
Spider-Man 3 (2007): $336 million
The Amazing Spider-Man (2012): $262 million
Judging the opening gross of this sequel based on its 2012 predecessor is a bit tricky because it opened over the Fourth of July weekend. While its Friday to Sunday gross was $62 million, it rolled out over a six-day period beginning on a Tuesday with $137 million.
I think the real question here is whether or not The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will have the biggest superhero opening so far this year. In other words – can it top the $95 million opening that Captain America: The Winter Soldier accomplished a month ago?
As I see it, the possibility of Spidey topping $100 million out of the gate is real. It pretty much has the weekend to itself and has the advantage of being the first high-profile summer 2014 blockbuster. On the other hand, the original wasn’t exactly beloved and the low end opening possibility to me would be around $75 million – which would be considered a bit of a letdown.
My spidey sense tells me this won’t quite reach what Captain America did, but it’ll come close.
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 opening weekend prediction: $90.1 million
This is the final weekend of the movie calendar before the May onslaught of potential summer blockbusters arrive, including The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, and Maleficent. On Friday, we’ll see a trio of new titles debut: the rom com The Other Woman, action thriller Brick Mansions, and horror flick The Quiet Ones. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As for holdovers, I’m expecting drops in the mid 30s-40s for last weekend’s champ Captain America: The Winter Soldier and runners-up Heaven Is for Real and Rio 2. If that is indeed the case, it could mean fifth and sixth place debuts for Brick Mansions and The Quiet Ones, unless they perform better than expected. I believe The Other Woman should generate enough business to be #1, though if it disappoints it could open the door for a fourth weekend at the top spot for Captain America or possibly a rise to #1 for Rio 2. And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:
1. The Other Woman
Predicted Gross: $18.1 million
2. Rio 2
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)
3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)
4. Heaven Is for Real
Predicted Gross: $13 million (representing a drop of 42%)
5. Brick Mansions
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million
6. The Quiet Ones
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
Box Office Results (April 18-20)
Well… when you mess up, I guess do it big time and, boy, did I ever with Transcendence, the Johnny Depp sci fi thriller. It absolutely tanked at the box office with a terrible $10.8 million fourth place opening. My prediction? $30.8 million. Ouch. This is yet another flop for Depp after disappointments like Dark Shadows and The Lone Ranger. Poor reviews and a weak marketing campaign hurt it and I mistakenly believed Depp’s name would lead it to a respectable opening. Far from it.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier managed a three-peat at #1 over Easter Weekend with $25.5 million, holding better than my $18.9 million. Another surprise besides the Transcendence disaster was the fantastic start for the faith-based Heaven Is for Real. The pic grossed $22.5 million for the three day weekend and $29.5 million from its five day Wednesday start, trumping my respective predictions of $17.5M and $24.8M. This spring has been a great one for Christian themed pictures, including Son of God, God’s Not Dead, and Noah. #3 went to Rio 2 in its sophomore frame with $22.1 million, a bit under my $25.9M projection.
Two more weak debuts marked the weekend – the horror sequel A Haunted House 2 flopped with $8.8 million for fifth place, below my $10.6M projection. Disney’s nature doc Bears failed to bring in an audience with a meager $4.7 million for tenth place. I predicted $8.8 million.
I’ll try to do better next time, my blog reading friends!
This Friday brings the British horror flick The Quiet Ones, which comes from the same studio that had a hit a couple of years back with The Woman in Black. Starring “Mad Men” actor Jared Harris and up and comer Sam Claflin, the pic arrives just two weeks following the muted $12 million debut of Oculus. It’s hard at this point to see The Quiet Ones topping that.
Like last summer’s smash hit The Conjuring, this one purports to being based on a true story and its set in the 1970s. Plot similarities aside – don’t expect a Conjuring size success here. I actually believe The Quiet Ones will struggle to reach double digits and will probably come in third out of the three new entries this weekend, after The Other Woman and Brick Mansions. Quiet indeed.
The Quiet Ones opening weekend prediction: $9.4 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 