The Interview Box Office Prediction

Well, whaddya know??

On this Christmas morning, it turns out my present to you on the blog is something I didn’t get to think I’d write this week: a box office prediction for The Interview.

At this point, everyone movie blogger and critic has written about the debacle that involved hacking and North Korea and Sony Pictures and the controversial decision to not release the Seth Rogen/James Franco comedy in theaters. I wrote my own post when it looked like the picture may not see the light of day and if you missed it, you can find it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/18/a-canceled-interview/

And now – Sony has reversed course, to an extent. The Interview, in which Rogen and Franco play entertainment journalists sent on a mission to take out North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, will premiere today in 331 independently owned theaters across the nation. The big movie chains are still not screening it. It is also debuting on numerous digital formats, including YouTube, Google Play, and Xbox which may divert some curious eyes from the theaters and to their laptops.

So what does that mean as far as its box office prospects? Well, that’s a tricky proposition but I’ll try my best. First, 331 screens isn’t many considering the average wannabe blockbuster comes to at least 2000 and often 3000 plus venues. In other words, think low. On the other hand, its per screen average should outdo the other holiday newbies that are rolling out.

With all the hype surrounding the movie (even with its less than stellar reviews – 5o% on Rotten Tomatoes), it should manage to bring out viewers who may not have even intended on watching it right away in the first place. Whether they do so at a theater they might not be used to going to or at home is a mystery that won’t be resolved until the numbers are released early next week. I’ll predict its limited release yields an average of over $10,000 per screen for an impressive haul.

The Interview opening weekend prediction: $3.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $4.4 million (Thursday to Sunday)

For my Unbroken prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/unbroken-box-office-prediction/

For my Into the Woods prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/into-the-woods-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Gambler, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/22/the-gambler-box-office-prediction/

For my Big Eyes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/24/big-eyes-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Imitation Game, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/24/the-imitation-game-box-office-prediction/

The Imitation Game Box Office Prediction

After several weeks in limited release where it’s done quite well, The Imitation Game rolls out nationally tomorrow on Christmas Day. Premiering on approximately 747 screens, Game has been the beneficiary of much awards buzz – both for the Picture and its actors Benedict Cumberbatch and Keira Knightley.

The picture tells the story of Alan Turing, known for being the man to break Nazi codes during WWII. Game is thought to be in the running for what actually could win Best Picture, as is Cumberbatch. Reviews have been highly positive and it stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes.

It’s rolling out on less than 1000 screens which will certainly effect its performance, but I’ll predict it does quite nicely considering the number of theaters.

The Imitation Game opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $7.2 million (Thursday to Sunday)

For my Into the Woods prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/into-the-woods-box-office-prediction/

For my Unbroken prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/unbroken-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Gambler, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/22/the-gambler-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Interview, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/25/the-interview-box-office-prediction/

For my Big Eyes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/24/big-eyes-box-office-prediction/

2014: The Year of Michael Keaton

Concluding my series of six performers who had a memorable 2014 on the big screen, we finish with Michael Keaton. The 63 year old actor has had many career highlights in his over three decades of stardom. He was Batman, for goodness sake! He was Beetlejuice! There was well regarded dramatic work in Clean and Sober and My Life. His team up with Quentin Tarantino in Jackie Brown and Steven Soderbergh in Out of Sight (playing the same part too). A creepy tenant in Pacific Heights. Comedies such as Mr. Mom and Multiplicity, among others.

For the last few years, Keaton has mostly been relegated to supporting roles in some high profile material and some indies. And he doesn’t make this list because of his work in this spring’s Robocop remake or video game adaptation Need for Speed (which are two examples of the kind of material that seemed a little beneath him).

No, Keaton is here because of Birdman, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s acclaimed comedy/drama. This picture marked a career comeback that rivaled that of Travolta in Pulp Fiction and Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler. This is the role of a lifetime for Mr. Keaton and there stands a very solid chance that he’ll hear his name called in an ultra competitive Best Actor race at the Academy Awards.

The Birdman love will almost certainly mean roles will be available for Keaton that perhaps haven’t been in recent years. Next year, he’ll appear alongside Mark Ruffalo and Rachel McAdams in Spotlight, a drama which focuses on the Massachusetts Catholic sex scandals of recent history. It comes from Thomas McCarthy, the respected indie director of The Station Agent and The Visitor. With Inarritu’s rediscovery of Keaton’s great talent, there’s probably a lot of fine directors who’ll be calling up his services in the near future.

For my post on The Year of Shailene Woodley, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-shailene-woodley/

For my post on The Year of Kevin Hart, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-kevin-hart/

For my post on The Year of Scarlett Johannson, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-scarlett-johannson/

For my post on The Year of Chris Pratt, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-chris-pratt/

For my post on The Year of Angelina Jolie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-angelina-jolie/

2014: The Year of Angelina Jolie

While she’s certainly omnipresent in the media, it had actually been three and a half years since we’d seen Angelina Jolie on screen when the summer of 2014 came around (sadly, it had been in the box office bomb The Tourist with Johnny Depp). That all changed when Disney’s Maleficent was released and it became her biggest blockbuster yet ($241 million domestic and #6 on the list of year’s highest earners).

While the picture itself received mixed notices, critics mostly praised her work and family audiences ate up the Sleeping Beauty re-imagining. This alone might earn Jolie a spot on part five of my six performers who had a terrific year. Yet it wasn’t just that.

Jolie’s directorial effort Unbroken comes out on Thursday and it marks her first eagerly awaited film behind the camera. It’s been met with mixed reviews and its Oscar buzz has waned quite a bit, but it still may do quite well at the box office (it’s based on a beloved bestseller).

Critical misgivings aside – Jolie came back in a huge way in 2014. We’ll next see her direct and star alongside her hubby Brad Pitt in the drama By the Sea.

For my post on The Year of Shailene Woodley, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-shailene-woodley/

For my post on The Year of Kevin Hart, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-kevin-hart/

For my post on The Year of Scarlett Johannson, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-scarlett-johannson/

For my post on The Year of Chris Pratt, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-chris-pratt/

For my post on The Year of Michael Keaton, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-michael-keaton/

2014: The Year of Chris Pratt

He had supporting roles earlier in comedies such as The Five Year Engagement and Delivery Man and dramas like Moneyball and Zero Dark Thirty. Simply put, though, in 2014 – Chris Pratt became a movie star. So much so that he earns a spot in part four of my six performers who shined brightest this year.

The actor, best known for his role on NBC’s acclaimed comedy “Parks and Recreation”, scored the lead in what turned out to be the year’s biggest hit – Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy. As Star Lord, Pratt gave a boffo performance in what some are calling the Star Wars of this generation. We will, of course, see him return to the role likely several more times.

As if that weren’t enough, Pratt was the lead voice in the #4 largest grosser of the year, this spring’s animated The LEGO Movie. That, too, has turned into a franchise.

Pratt’s actions in 2014 guarantee that we will see him and hear him in at least two massive series into the future. And 2015 brings a third with him in Jurassic World, the reboot of that beloved franchise.

For my post on The Year of Shailene Woodley, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-shailene-woodley/

For my post on The Year of Kevin Hart, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-kevin-hart/

For my post on The Year of Scarlett Johannson, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-scarlett-johannson/

For my post on The Year of Angelina Jolie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-angelina-jolie/

For my post on The Year of Michael Keaton, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-michael-keaton/

2014: The Year of Scarlett Johannson

Scarlett Johannson has been on quite a roll lately with her mix of mega blockbusters and critical indie darlings. It manifested itself best in 2014 and “Scar Jo” had quite the banner year. She is indeed deserving of my third post focusing on six performers who had a merry 2014!

April 2014 gave us a prime example of her deft mix of films both large and small. Johannson made her third appearance as Black Widow (after 2010’s Iron Man 2 and 2012’s The Avengers) in Captain America: The Winter Soldier. Everyone expected it to be a blockbuster, which it exceeded expectations on the critical and financial level (topping out at $259 million domestic).

That same month she starred in Under the Skin, Jonathan Glazer’s hypnotic indie pic that cast her as an alien learning what Earth is all about. Her performance contained little dialogue, yet it may be her strongest work yet.

Her work in acclaimed indie fare continued into May with her supporting part in Chef, Jon Favreau’s unexpected hit that earned $31 million domestically.

By July, she may have had her most impressive showing when she headlined the action pic Lucy. It earned a robust $126 million and much of it was due to her star power alone in shoot-em-up genre pics.

Scar Jo’s dalliances between popcorn flicks and indie hits looks to continue beyond this year. In May, she’ll make her fourth Black Widow turn in The Avengers: Age of Ultron before working with the Coen Brothers (alongside George Clooney and Channing Tatum) in Hail Caesar!

For my post on The Year of Shailene Woodley, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-shailene-woodley/

For my post on The Year of Kevin Hart, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-kevin-hart/

For my post on The Year of Chris Pratt, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-chris-pratt/

For my post on The Year of Angelina Jolie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-angelina-jolie/

For my post on The Year of Michael Keaton, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-michael-keaton/

2014: The Year of Kevin Hart

Continuing with my series of performers who had a big impact on film this year, part two of six brings us to Kevin Hart.

Not only is he one of the highest grossing stand-up comics around, this year proved he can truly headline at the multiplex as well. The biggest example came in January with the surprise hit buddy cop comedy Ride Along with Ice Cube. The pic amassed a fantastic $134 million gross and was #1 for four weeks. A sequel is already planned for January 2016.

February brought his supporting role in About Last Night which earned a respectable $48 million. In June came his sequel Think Like a Man Too, which topped out at $65 million (less than its predecessor, but still solid considering its $24M budget).

More than anything though, Ride Along made Hart a hot commodity and 2015 should keep the momentum going. January sees the premiere of The Wedding Ringer and in March, he teams up with Will Ferrell in Get Hard.

For my post on The Year of Shailene Woodley, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-shailene-woodley/

For my post on The Year of Scarlett Johannson, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-scarlett-johannson/

For my post on The Year of Chris Pratt, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-chris-pratt/

For my post on The Year of Angelina Jolie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-angelina-jolie/

For my post on The Year of Michael Keaton, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-michael-keaton/

2014: The Year of Shailene Woodley

Just like I did in 2013, today brings us a series where I feature three actors and three actresses who had a very good year in 2014. To recap in 2013 – my individual honors went to Jennifer Lawrence, Matthew McConaughey, Sandra Bullock, Tom Hanks, Melissa McCarthy, and James Franco.

For 2014 – we have a fresh new crop of performers who had a significant impact at the box office and we begin with Shailene Woodley. Many of us first noticed the actress as George Clooney’s rebellious daughter in 2010’s The Descendants before moving to an acclaimed role in 2013’s The Spectacular Now.

This year broke her out in a massive way. It began with March’s Divergent, which will be the first in a planned series of four pictures (with the second opening this March). Woodley headlined the YA feature which grossed a strong $150 million.

June brought The Fault in Our Stars, based on the bestselling YA novel which earned her rave reviews and went onto gross $124 million. With these two hits in a row, Woodley is successfully carving out an interesting career path that’s not unlike Jennifer Lawrence.

Her Divergent and Spectacular Now costar Miles Teller had a heckuva year himself with that feature plus the lauded indie hit Whiplash.

2014 will definitely go down as the year when Shailene Woodley burst into the mainstream and it looks like she’s here to stay.

For my post on The Year of Kevin Hart, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-kevin-hart/

For my post on The Year of Scarlett Johannson, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-scarlett-johannson/

For my post on The Year of Chris Pratt, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-chris-pratt/

For my post on The Year of Angelina Jolie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-angelina-jolie/

For my post on The Year of Michael Keaton, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-michael-keaton/

Box Office Predictions: December 25-28

Three new releases (not the originally planned four) roll out Christmas Day to compete with holdovers The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, and Annie. They are Disney’s musical fantasy Into the Woods, Angelina Jolie’s adaptation of the bestseller Unbroken, and Mark Wahlberg’s crime drama The Gambler. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of the new entries here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/into-the-woods-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/unbroken-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/22/the-gambler-box-office-prediction/

Of course, there was a fourth movie planned for release called The Interview. If you’re not familiar with happened there, you can turn on cable news or open your Twitter or Facebook feed.

I expect Into the Woods and Unbroken to post similar results for second and third place finishes behind current champ The Hobbit. It is worth noting that some prognosticators have Woods outdoing my estimate and it’s certainly possible.

During the Christmas holiday weekend, it’s not uncommon for some films to gain audience from the previous weekend and I’m predicting modest gains for family fare Museum and Annie.

Wahlberg’s Gambler is likely to settle for a sixth place debut. And with that, my predictions for the Christmas weekend’s top 6:

1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Predicted Gross: $42.4 million (representing a drop of 23%)

2. Into the Woods

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $30.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)

3. Unbroken

Predicted Gross: $20.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $28.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)

4. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing an increase of 10%)

5. Annie

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (representing an increase of 7%)

Box Office Results (December 19-21)

Peter Jackson’s third and final Hobbit pic dominated the box office while not quite reaching the numbers I predicted. Its Wednesday release was a bit more front loaded than I anticipated. It took in $54.7 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend – under my $67.1M estimate. However, its five day take of $89.1 million was on track with my $93.6M forecast. This is a solid start for the end of the franchise and the fact that its second weekend falls on Christmas will help it.

Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb showed that the franchise is seriously running out of steam as it grossed just $17.1 million out of the gate, under my $25.4M estimate. Perhaps the five year wait from the second and third entries was too long as its fans have simply grown up.

The critically reviled Annie had a ho-hum debut with $15.8 million, just under my $17.6M prediction. It should gain some audience for Christmas, but this has to be below what the beleaguered Sony expected.

Exodus: Gods and Kings, as anticipated, fell hard in weekend #2 to $8.1 million, a bit under my $9.7M prognosis. The Ridley Scott epic, which was met with critical scorn, has earned an unimpressive $38M so far.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 rounded out the top five with $7.8 million (on pace with my $8M prediction). Its earned $289M at press time.

Finally, the Reese Witherspoon drama Wild debuted in sixth place with $4.1 million, not matching my $5.8M estimate. Its Oscar buzz (for Reese) could mean slow drop-offs in subsequent weekends.

And that’s all for now, folks! Have a very Merry Christmas!

The Gambler Box Office Prediction

Paramount Pictures goes for a little Christmas counter programming with the crime drama The Gambler, a remake of a 1974 James Caan flick. Rupert Wyatt (who did Rise of the Planet of the Apes) directs with Mark Wahlberg headlining. John Goodman, Jessica Lange, and Brie Larson costar. Reviews have been mostly positive with a current ranking of 65% on Rotten Tomatoes.

The majority of holiday pictures out there are not catering directly to an adult audience (Unbroken is a notable exception) and it could allow The Gambler to post a decent debut. Wahlberg is hit or miss at the box office, however and I’m not sure the marketing campaign has been effective enough to bring older moviegoers out in droves.

It may be a wager that doesn’t quite work for the studio. I believe The Gambler could get somewhat lost in the shuffle among the higher profile releases. It could struggle to reach $15 million over the four day extended holiday frame and I’ll estimate that it will not.

The Gambler opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.2 million (Thursday to Sunday)