Box Office Predictions: August 21-23

As we enter the doldrums of late August at the box office, we have three new entries populating the multiplexes: horror sequel Sinister 2, Jesse Eisenberg/Kristen Stewart action comedy American Ultra, and video game inspired Hitman: Agent 47. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

I don’t expect any of them to outdo the second weekend of current champ Straight Outta Compton, which made a boatload of cash this weekend (more on that below). Sinister 2 seems to be the only one with a shot, as horror films do often over perform. I expect both Ultra and Hitman to premiere under double digits.

Compton should actually drop precipitously in its sophomore frame considering many moviegoers likely wanted to rush out and see it. For comparison sake, Eminem’s 8 Mile dipped 62% in its second weekend and Compton could drop close to that (which is nothing against it considering it made way more out of the gate than anybody figured it would).

As for other holdovers, I look for Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation to eek out a third place showing over Ultra and The Man from U.N.C.L.E. taking the five spot in weekend #2 after its disappointing opening.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top six:

Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 59%)

2. Sinister 2

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. American Ultra

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

5. The Man from U.N.C.L.E.

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 47%)

6. Hitman: Agent 47

Predicted Gross: $6 million

Box Office Results (August 14-16)

As mentioned, the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton capitalized on its great reviews, music, and word of mouth and had a massive opening that exceeded all expectations. The film grossed an astonishing $60.2 million, blasting past my $39.3M estimate. With a reported budget of just $29 million, Compton represents another blockbuster for Universal Pictures in 2015.

Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation dropped to second in weekend #3 with $17.1 million, a bit above my $14.9M projection. The hit fifth entry in Tom Cruise’s franchise stands at $138M so far.

The news was not good for The Man from U.N.C.L.E., which stalled with just a $13.4 million opening, under my $18.6M prediction. Audience attention was clearly elsewhere over the weekend and this planned franchise will likely end here.

Speaking of possibly dead franchises, the news kept getting worse for last weekend’s bomb Fantastic Four. It dropped a dramatic 68% in weekend #2 with just $8.1 million, under my predicted $11.1M. The Fox property has taken in an embarrassing $42M in ten days.

Finally, the Jason Bateman/Joel Edgerton suspense pic The Gift took in $6.5 million in its second weekend, right in line with my $6.3M estimate. The critically applauded film has made a respectable $23M.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Hitman: Agent 47 Box Office Prediction

Based on a video game series, the action spectacle Hitman: Agent 47 hits theaters next Friday and it may be a prime example of a late August summer release that gets lost in the shuffle. The pic was originally meant to be a starring vehicle for Paul Walker before his death in 2013.

Stepping into the lead role is Rupert Friend, one of the stars of Showtime’s “Homeland”. The supporting cast includes Hannah Ware, Zachary Quinto, and Ciaran Hinds. While 20th Century Fox has been promoting Hitman with plenty of TV spots, I’m just not sure how this breaks through with other action fare like Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation and The Man from U.N.C.L.E. out there.

As I see it, Hitman: Agent 47 would be very lucky to top double digits out of the gate and I don’t really think it gets too close to that.

Hitman: Agent 47 opening weekend prediction: $6 million

For my Sinister 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/sinister-2-box-office-prediction/

For my American Ultra prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/american-ultra-box-office-prediction/

Sinister 2 Box Office Prediction

Sinister 2 opens next Friday and hopes to replicate the success of its 2012 predecessor that became a sleeper hit. This time around, expectations may be a little higher but I’m not convinced it’ll even reach the domestic take of its predecessor.

The original Sinister capitalized on solid reviews and opened to a robust $18 million in October 2012 on its way to a $48 million domestic haul. The sequel only finds one returning cast member with James Ransone as a cop. Ethan Hawke, the film’s original star, is nowhere to be found which makes sense if you’ve seen the picture.

While horror enthusiasts mostly regarded Sinister with approval, I’m not so sure fans will rush out to see its sequel. I believe Sinister 2 will have a tough time even matching the $18M mark and an opening in the mid teens seems more likely.

Sinister 2 opening weekend prediction: $16.2 million

For my American Ultra prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/american-ultra-box-office-prediction/

For my Hitman: Agent 47 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/hitman-agent-47-box-office-prediction/

American Ultra Box Office Prediction

A lot has happened in the film careers of Jesse Eisenberg and Kristen Stewart since they starred in 2009’s Adventureland. Eisenberg earned an Oscar nod for The Social Network, starred in 2013’s summer sleeper hit Now You See Me, and got himself cast as Lex Luthor in next year’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. Stewart furthered her star status with more Twilight pics and Snow White and the Huntsman. Now the pair reunite for American Ultra, an action comedy out next Friday. I am highly skeptical this movie will be among their big earners.

Ultra has a supporting cast that includes Topher Grace, Connie Britton, Walton Goggins, Bill Pullman, and Tony Hale. The pic seems to be flying a bit under the radar. Solid reviews could assist yet I wonder whether this manages to even post double digits in its opening. Ultra should have no trouble topping the $5.7 million debut of Adventureland (at least I think), but I will project it falls just under $10 million and likely fades fast.

American Ultra opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million

For my Sinister 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/sinister-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Hitman: Agent 47 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/hitman-agent-47-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: August 14-16

Two high profile releases open up this weekend as the N.W.A. biopic Straight Outta Compton and Guy Ritchie spy thriller The Man from U.N.C.L.E. debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/06/straight-outta-compton-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/06/the-man-from-u-n-c-l-e-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, these two newbies should take the top two spots on the charts. I look for Compton to dominate with U.N.C.L.E. having a rather lackluster premiere in the runner-up position.

When it comes to holdovers, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop to third after two weekends in the #1 spot. I look for Fantastic Four to fall hard after its disastrous opening this past weekend (more on that below). The Gift should round out the top five in its sophomore frame.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Gross: $39.3 million

2. The Man from U.N.C.L.E.

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

4. Fantastic Four

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)

5. The Gift

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 46%)

Box Office Results (August 7-9)

Let’s get what I got right out of the way. Though I didn’t have it at #1, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation managed to stay on top with $28.5 million, on pace with my $28.1M prediction. In ten days, the Tom Cruise sequel has taken in $107 million.

Now… to the Fantastic Four. Wow. 20th Century Fox’s reboot hoped to start a new franchise but the critically drubbed comic book pic landed with a thud at $25.6 million, way below my $47.7M estimate. This is a truly horrible opening for its genre and its dismal C- Cinemascore average marks the worst ever for a superhero flick. Most of its publicity was negative, including creative differences with the studio and director Josh Trank. That coupled with possible superhero pic fatigue doomed this project and it’s hard to envision a Fantastic Four 2 coming out ever… or at least anytime in the near future until the studio assesses what went so very wrong.

Thriller The Gift debuted third with a reasonable $11.8 million. I incorrectly had it performing better with $16.8M, but this is still a sturdy opening for a low-budget flick with no big box office draws. Solid reviews likely helped.

Holdovers populated the four and five spots and I incorrectly had them both outside the top five. Vacation was fourth in weekend two with $8.9 million for a $37M total so far and Marvel’s Ant-Man was fifth with $7.9 million for a $147M haul.

Two other newcomers fell considerably below my projections. Meryl Streep’s Ricki and the Flash sputtered with just $6.6 million for a seventh place start (I predicted $11.4M). The stop motion animated pic Shaun the Sheep Movie fared worse with only $4 million for an 11th place showing (I said $8.2M).

And that’ll for now, folks! Until next time…

Straight Outta Compton Box Office Prediction

Telling the story of one of hip hop music’s most iconic groups, Straight Outta Compton hits theaters next Friday and could be poised for a stealthy debut. Centering on the story of N.W.A. and its members Dr. Dre, Ice Cube, Eazy E, MC Ren and DJ Yella, Compton is directed by F. Gary Gray, who made music videos for Dre and Cube back in the day prior to becoming an accomplished maker of Friday and The Italian Job, among others. A cast of relative unknowns formulate the cast with the exception of Paul Giamatti as band manager Jerry Heller. Cube’s son O’Shea Jackson Jr. plays his pop.

Fans of the hip hop genre should flock to this. Shot on a meager $25 million budget, it stands to top that (probably easily) in its first weekend. Dre and Cube served as executive producers and Dre has a highly awaited album coming out tomorrow that’s inspired by the film. Reviews have been strong with a current rating of 91% on Rotten Tomatoes.

While Compton is unlikely to reach the heights of Eminem’s 8 Mile ($51 million debut) in 2002 when that artist was at the top of his drawing power, I think believe Compton should rule its weekend. I believe it could approach and maybe surpass $40 million for its premiere, I’ll go just a tad under.

Straight Outta Compton opening weekend prediction: $39.3 million

For my The Man from U.N.C.L.E. prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/06/the-man-from-u-n-c-l-e-box-office-prediction/

The Man from U.N.C.L.E. Box Office Prediction

A summer action pic based on a popular 1960s spy TV show? No, not Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, but The Man from U.N.C.L.E. which opens next Friday. Don’t expect this to reach close to Rogue numbers. Sherlock Holmes director Guy Ritchie is behind the camera with Man of Steel Henry Cavill and Lone Ranger Armie Hammer in the leads. Ex Machina’s Alicia Vikander and Hugh Grant are among the supporting players.

While the marketing campaign has been fairly robust, it’s hard to see U.N.C.L.E. breaking through in any significant way. Straight Outta Compton, debuting the same day, appears poised for a splashy start while Fantastic Four will be entering weekend #2 with Rogue Nation likely doing pretty strong biz in its third frame. None of the stars here are capable of opening a picture and familiarity with the TV show from 50 years is limited.

Add that up and I’ll predict this $75 million budgeted effort doesn’t reach $20 million out of the gate.

The Man from U.N.C.L.E. opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million

For my Straight Outta Compton prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/06/straight-outta-compton-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: August 7-9

August brings in four new titles for moviegoers to consider this weekend: the big budget reboot of Fantastic Four, psychological thriller The Gift, Meryl Streep’s comedic drama Ricki and the Flash, and British stop motion animated pic Shaun the Sheep Movie. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/30/fantastic-four-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/31/the-gift-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/31/ricki-and-the-flash-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/01/shaun-the-sheep-movie-box-office-prediction/

I actually expect all four newbies to find themselves in the top five. Fantastic Four should have no trouble opening at #1, though I must say the anticipation for this seems less than your typical comic book movie.

After its strong debut, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop to second, losing about half its audience. My predictions have The Gift having a robust opening at third with Ricki and the Flash and Shaun the Sheep Movie rounding out the top five. Due to its less than anticipated roll out over the weekend, Vacation should fall out of the top five in only its second frame.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Fantastic Four

Predicted Gross: $47.7 million

2. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $28.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. The Gift

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

4. Ricki and the Flash

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. Shaun the Sheep Movie

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)

Tom Cruise’s fifth appearance as super agent Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation posted positive results as the critically acclaimed sequel earned $55.5 million, a bit above my $52.3M. This finds the franchise in very good shape and a sixth flick has already been confirmed.

Meanwhile, the critically drubbed Vacation reboot got off to a shaky start with $14.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $21 million since its Wednesday premiere. This is below my respective estimates of $17.1M and $24.7M. With a middling B score from Cinemascore, I don’t see this holding up well as moviegoers mostly rejected a return to Wally World.

As for holdovers, Ant-Man dropped to third after two weeks on top with $12.8 million compared to my $11.4M projection. The Marvel pic has amassed $132 million so far. Minions took fourth with $12.3 million, in line with my $11.8M prediction and its total stands at $287 million. The Adam Sandler dud Pixels was fifth with $10.5 million in weekend two, right on target with my $10.3M estimate. Its weak cume is $45 million. Trainwreck was sixth with $9.6 million (I said $10.2M) and it’s made $79 million in three weeks. Southpaw dipped a bit further in its sophomore weekend than I foresaw with $7.6 million compared to my $9.5M projection for a $31 million total so far.

And that’ll do it for now! Until next time…

Shaun the Sheep Movie Box Office Prediction

Family audiences are given another summer offering in the form of the Shaun the Sheep Movie, a British stop motion animated feature being released stateside Friday. It’s based on the European TV show that’s spun off from the Wallace and Gromit series. Shaun has already been released in the United Kingdom where it’s performed well.

Still, solid grosses across the pond may not equate to brisk business in this country. While reviews have been universally strong and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, this particular sheep may not have American kids flocking to the multiplex. See what I did there?

While Shaun is premiering on a wide 2200 reported screens, I believe family audiences here will mostly ignore this title and it will struggle to even reach double digits at the start.

Shaun the Sheep Movie opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million

For my Fantastic Four prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/30/fantastic-four-box-office-prediction/

For my The Gift prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/31/the-gift-box-office-prediction/

For my Ricki and the Flash prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/31/ricki-and-the-flash-box-office-prediction/

Ricki and the Flash Box Office Prediction

Oscar winning director Jonathan Demme and Oscar winning screenwriter Diablo Cody bring us the comedic drama Ricki and the Flash, out Friday. The film stars frequent Oscar winner Meryl Streep in the role of a rock star who abandoned her family for stardom with the actress’s real life daughter Mamie Gummer portraying her movie daughter. Kevin Kline and musician Rick Springfield are among the supporting players.

TriStar Pictures is hoping that Ricki’s numbers will be assisted by a sizable female and adult audience. It could work to an extent, but despite the pedigree involved, the pic isn’t really generating awards buzz. It’s hard to see the ceiling for this being greater than high teens though I’m skeptical it’ll reach that gross out of the gate. I believe a debut in the lower single digits is the more likely scenario.

Ricki and the Flash opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million