The Nice Guys Movie Review

Shane Black knows his way around kick ass action flicks injected with humor – much of it loaded with profanity, kids in danger, and booze and cigarettes. This is the man who wrote Lethal Weapon and The Last Boy Scout and The Long Kiss Goodnight. Fans of Black can spot the rhythm of his screenplays a mile away. I suspect, by the way, that Quentin Tarantino was influenced by some of Black’s beats for his later compositions.

In 2005, he directed his first feature, Kiss Kiss Bang Bang. It was an often hilariously trippy private eye tale for the ages and truly ushered in the comeback of one Robert Downey Jr. (with a glorious Val Kilmer at his side). The Nice Guys puts the auteur right back in Bang Bang territory after a nice excursion into blockbuster land with 2010’s Iron Man 3.

For admirers who have gobbled up Black’s words over the past three decades, this is a return to form that doesn’t quite match his finest work. Yet it’s satisfying nonetheless and contains some real laugh out loud moments. This is a buddy flick that would’ve been right at home being made in the 1980s, but it’s set in 1977 Los Angeles. Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling are both private eyes. Neither is exceptionally bright and in true Black fashion, Gosling’s teenage daughter is often the smartest person in the room. Crowe is more an enforcer who transacts business through broken bones. Gosling is more of a con artist.

The pair become embroiled in a dense plot that involves murdered porn stars, an endangered porn actress whose Mom (Kim Basinger) runs the Justice Department, and an assortment of goons and henchman who would be right at home tormenting Bruce Willis and Damon Wayans in Last Boy Scout. The plot is secondary in these proceedings to the dialogue.

Black revels in these shady characters who occasionally experience flashes of humanity. Not too much though and that’s what we kind of hope for and expect. One character gives up his years long sobriety by our conclusion and it’s practically treated as a moment of valor. I wouldn’t have it any other way from the guy behind the camera and typewriter (he probably doesn’t use a typewriter anymore, but I prefer to believe otherwise).

Crowe and Gosling seem to be having a ball, too. Matt Bomer stands out as the most memorable henchman in a pic filled with disposable ones. There were more lines and setups that killed in Kiss Kiss to put it on another level from this. There’s more than enough of that bloody Black humor to make this worthwhile, including the most unexpected use of Richard Nixon since at least Point Break.

*** (out of four)

The Conjuring 2 Box Office Prediction

Three summers ago, The Conjuring became one of the most highly regarded horror titles in recent years with critics and audiences alike. Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga return as real life paranormal investigators Ed and Lorraine Warren and this inevitable sequel focuses on one of their most famous cases circa London in the late 1970s. James Wan, who directed the original as well as the first two Insidious flicks and last year’s Furious 7, is back behind the camera. His history with horror sequels is pretty great. Insidious made $13 million in its premiere. The sequel made $40 million.

The first entry conjured up a fantastic $41 million opening and topped out at $137M domestically. Warner Bros. would love a repeat performance and they may well get one. Even the critically derided Conjuring spin-off Annabelle took in a robust $37 million for its start. One potential stumbling block: competition is a little more fierce this time around with Now You See Me 2 (another sequel to a sleeper summer 2013 blockbuster) and Warcraft (which will be going for many of the same moviegoers) opening directly against it.

That said, I believe the goodwill left over from the first will get this in the same range of its predecessor for a frighteningly solid start.

The Conjuring 2 opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million

For my Now You See Me 2 prediction, click here:

Now You See Me 2 Box Office Prediction

For my Warcraft prediction, click here:

Warcraft Box Office Prediction

Box Office Predictions: June 3-5

The first box office weekend of June brings a trio of new entries: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, British romance Me Before You, and Andy Samberg’s musical doc spoof Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows Box Office Prediction

Me Before You Box Office Prediction

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Box Office Prediction

That martial arts reptile sequel should have no problem topping the charts, unless it severely comes in under expectations… you know, like Alice Through the Looking Glass did (more on that below).

X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice should experience high drops, though should still mark the two spot. Alice may find itself in a battle for third with Me Before You (or even Angry Birds). Captain America should fall to 6th with Popstar perhaps settling for seventh.

Therefore, let’s do a top 7 predictions this weekend and see how it all shakes out:

  1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Predicted Gross: $50.3 million

2. X-Men: Apocalypse

Predicted Gross: $25.3 million (representing a drop of 61%)

3. Me Before You

Predicted Gross: $11.5 million

4. Alice Through the Looking Glass

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 63%)

5. The Angry Birds Movie

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)

 

6. Captain America: Civil War

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 50%)

7. Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (Memorial Day Weekend 2016)

As anticipated, X-Men: Apocalypse ruled the Memorial Day weekend, even though its tally couldn’t match the superior performance of its predecessor, Days of Future Past, in the same weekend in 2014. The 8th feature in the franchise (which received less favorable reviews than most others) earned $65.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $79.8 million counting its Monday earnings. That’s far below my respective predictions of $82.8M and $100.4M. By contrast, Future Past‘s Memorial Day brought in $90M and $110M for its holiday performance.

Disney has had a truly incredible year with smashes like Zootopia, The Jungle Book, and Captain America: Civil War. Yet the hits stopped this weekend with the massive failure of Alice Through the Looking Glass. The sequel to 2010’s Alice in Wonderland (which received scathing reviews) tanked with only $26.8 million over the three day and $33.5 million for the holiday. I went WAY over with $53.6M and $67.7M. This is an unmitigated disaster. Speculation is fair about whether Johnny Depp’s scandal over the weekend with Amber Heard may have played a part, but the studio may have simply waited too long to put this out.

The Angry Birds Movie dropped to third in its sophomore frame with $18.7 million for the three-day (just under my $20.4M forecast) and $24.5 million for the full weekend. My prediction? $24.5M! Yay me! Its total sits at $72M.

Captain America: Civil War fell to fourth in weekend #4 with $15.3 million and $20 million, under my estimates of $18.1M and $22.2M for a $377M gross. It should reach over $400M.

Disappointing comedy sequel Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising was fifth with my $9.3 million and $11.4 million for the three and four day a bit below my respective estimates of $10.4M and $12.2M. The two week total for it: $40M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Watch: Love & Friendship

In 1990, writer/director Whit Stillman had a major critical success with Metropolitan that led to a Best Original Screenplay for him at the Oscars. Over a quarter century later, Mr. Stillman could find himself on the Academy’s radar screen again with Love & Friendship. The romantic comedy is based on the book Lady Susan by Jane Austen. Starring Kate Beckinsale, Chloe Sevigny and Stephen Fry, the film holds a 99% Rotten Tomatoes rating and has grossed over $4 million domestically on less than 500 screens.

If its box office grosses continue to hold well over the next few weeks, Oscar voters may take notice. None of the actors are likely to be factors for nods. Truth be told, this is probably a long shot for attention. Still – 2016 has yet to produce many awards contenders and Love & Friendship is at least worthy of mention.

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Box Office Prediction

It has, at least to me, a title that makes me laugh every time I think of it. Yet I’m not convinced that will lead to an impressive performance on the charts.

Andy Samberg and his Lonely Island partners Akiva Schaffer and Jorma Taccone headline the music documentary spoof Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping. Costars include Sarah Silverman, Tim Meadows, Bill Hader, Joan Cusack, Maya Rudolph, Will Arnett (pulling double duty over the weekend with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows), and Martin Sheen. There’s also a bunch of cameos from real pop stars such as Adam Levine, Mariah Carey, Usher, and Carrie Underwood.

Mr. Samberg’s digital shorts on “Saturday Night Live” were a solid staple of the show for many years with classics like “Lazy Sunday” and “Dick in a Box”. His film career, on the other hand, has been pretty unimpressive box office wise. 2007’s Hot Rod and 2012’s That’s My Boy both were critical and commercial disappointments.

I’ll predict Popstar struggles to even reach high single digits.

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million

For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/25/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-out-of-the-shadows-box-office-prediction/

For my Me Before You prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/25/me-before-you-box-office-prediction/

Me Before You Box Office Prediction

For those who don’t believe there’s enough British romance in Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, a good alternative could be Me Before You. Based on a 2012 bestseller by Jojo Moyes, the drama from first-time director Thea Sharrock stars “Games of Thrones” actress Emilia Clarke, Sam Claflin, Jenna Coleman, Charles Dance, and Janet McTeer.

The Warner Bros. release hopes to capture a female audience against competition that is mostly based on comic books and more male driven. Better reviews may have assisted – it currently stands at just 40% on Rotten Tomatoes.

That said, it’s hoped for counter programming measures could get it to low double digits or low teens.

Me Before You opening weekend prediction: $11.5 million

For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/25/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-out-of-the-shadows-box-office-prediction/

For my Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/26/popstar-never-stop-never-stopping-box-office-prediction/

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows Box Office Prediction

Box office prognosticators such as myself were a little shell shocked two summers ago when Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles made its return to the big screen and posted a $65 million opening weekend. Its eventual domestic haul was $191M. The pizza loving reptiles are back again in Out of the Shadows alongside returnee non-reptile performers Megan Fox, Will Arnett, and William Fichtner. Chris O’Donnell look alike Stephen Amell joins the mix as Casey Jones, as do Tyler Perry and Laura Linney.

The Michael Bay produced franchise may not see much of a drop-off from its predecessor. The well-received 2014 effort (critics weren’t fans, but audiences ate it up) is still fresh in viewers minds. Youngsters who dug the first one and older fans introduced to Raphael, Michelangelo, Leonardo, Raphael, and Donatello in the late 80s and early 90s should bring this sequel to a gross in the low 50s.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows opening weekend prediction: $50.3 million

For my Me Before You prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/25/me-before-you-box-office-prediction/

For my Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/26/popstar-never-stop-never-stopping-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: May 27-30

It’s Memorial Day weekend coming up at the summer box office with two high-profile sequels debuting – X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/18/x-men-apocalypse-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/18/alice-through-the-looking-glass-box-office-prediction/

I expect the Mutants to fairly easily top The Mad Hatter, with Apocalypse just edging the century mark for its four-day holiday frame with Looking Glass getting to the mid-60s. That would mean both entries would come in below what their predecessors managed in 2014 and 2010, respectively.

As for holdovers, The Angry Birds Movie should slide to third after a robust 1st place debut (more on that below) with Captain America: Civil War and Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (which struggled this last weekend) rounding out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the Memorial Day frame which encapsulates my three and four-day forecasts:

  1. X-Men: Apocalypse

Predicted Gross: $82.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $100.4 million (Friday to Monday)

2. Alice Through the Looking Glass

Predicted Gross: $53.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $67.7 million (Friday to Monday)

3. The Angry Birds Movie

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.5 million (Friday to Monday)

4. Captain America: Civil War

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $22.2 million (Friday to Monday)

5. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.2 million (Friday to Monday)

Box Office Results (May 20-22)

The first feature film based on an app nabbed the #1 spot as The Angry Birds Movie soared to a $38.1 million opening, a bit above my $34.5M projection. This was on the higher end of expectations for the animated pic.

After two weeks on top, Captain America: Civil War slipped to second with $32.9 million, just under my $35.1M forecast for a three-week total of $347M.

The news was not good for Seth Rogen, Zac Efron, and company as Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising grossed an unimpressive $21.7 million for third. I went way over with $38.2M, which I should predicted for those ill-tempered birds. Considering the original made $49M out of the gate, we can safely assume Neighbors 3 won’t happen. This continues a recent trend of comedy sequels (think: Horrible Bosses, Zoolander) under performing.

Despite mostly glowing reviews, The Nice Guys with Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling finished fourth with $11.2 million in its opening, under my $14.4M prediction.

The Jungle Book rounded out the top five with $10.9 million and I predicted… $10.9M! Yay! Almost makes up for the Neighbors thing, but not really…

And there you have it, folks! Until next time…

Captain America: Civil War Movie Review

The Marvel Cinematic Universe continues to expand in often thrilling and impressive ways in Captain America: Civil War, which is by all intents and purposes a third Avengers pic where Hulk and Thor are apparently on a well-deserved vacation. It walks the tightrope of introducing new characters and finding new dynamics for the old ones without seeming gimmicky or overloading the audience with all its activity. To that end, director Joel and Anthony Russo are to be commended for mostly succeeding in this latest effort where our heroes are often unmasked and sometimes emasculated.

Civil War presents a chasm in the MCU that centers on Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan) aka The Winter Solider from this trilogy’s slightly better second movie. His history with Captain America (Chris Evans) garners understandable sympathy from our title character. That isn’t the case with Tony Stark/Iron Man (Robert Downey Jr.) when it appears Bucky may be responsible for an attack on the United Nations.

There’s also the question of whether The Avengers actions across the globe are worth the collateral damage that sometimes comes with it. The U.S. government proposes to put some serious checks on their powers. Tony agrees. Cap does not. And the rest of the crew (minus Hulk/Thor sipping Mai tai’s somewhere) must choose which side to join. This include Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow, Jeremy Renner’s Hawkeye (who comes out retirement from his boring home life Age of Ultron subplot), Anthony Mackie’s Falcon, Don Cheadle’s War Machine, and Elizabeth Olsen’s Scarlet Witch. We also have Paul Rudd in the mix less than a year after his debut in Ant-Man, which was the other underwhelming MCU summer 2015 experience (along with Ultron). And then there’s the two newbies introduced who will soon have their own stand-alone features: Chadwick Boseman’s Black Panther and Tom Holland’s Spider-Man. Spidey is good for some solid one-liners and I enjoyed Holland’s take on Peter Parker. This budding franchise should hopefully eclipse what we saw the last time around with Andrew Garfield and company. That said, I actually found Black Panther’s plot line to be a bit more interesting here and I equally anticipate that solo pic.

Civil War also continues the tradition of rather forgettable central villains, with the exception of Tom Hiddleston’s Loki. Here it’s Daniel Bruhl as Zemo, whose motives are murky for most of the running time and who stands as just another baddie in a world where the heroes are the focal point. This entry isn’t really about a main villain, however. Rather it’s about deciding if you’re on Team Cap or Team Iron Man and the screenplay is smartly written enough that the answer isn’t automatic.

The MCU continues to build on itself and this one does so in the most entertaining way since Winter Soldier. By the time we get to the final Avengers pictures, Hulk and Thor will return. Guardians of Galaxies will be in the mix. And with the Mouse Factory behind this with their extensive array of characters, who knows who else we shall see? Will Rey and Finn cross star systems to appear? Which team will Mowgli align with? Will Kermit and Miss Piggy agree to follow Cap or Tony or split? As long as it’s satisfying like Civil War, I’m still curious to find out.

*** (out of four)

Alice Through the Looking Glass Box Office Prediction

Nowadays, moviegoers are accustomed to a yearly live-action remake of a Disney classic in the form of your Malificent‘s, Cinderella‘s, and Jungle Book‘s. Yet it was six years ago that the ball really got rolling when Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland opened to a fantastic $116 million on its way to a $334 million domestic haul.

Now the Disney machine (who’s been having a banner 2016) has produced the sequel Alice Through the Looking Glass and it brings back Johnny Depp as The Mad Hatter, Mia Wasikowska as the title character, Anne Hathaway as The White Queen, and Helena Bonham Carter as The Red Queen. Sacha Baron Cohen and Rhys Ifans join the party. Tim Burton opted not to return to directorial duties (he executive produces) and James Bobin, who made the Muppets reboot, fills that role.

Competition over Memorial Day weekend is considerable with X-Men: Apocalypse also debuting. The biggest hurdle Alice faces could be the six-year gap that it took to produce this follow-up. The original didn’t receive very positive reviews and the story for Looking Glass is even worse with a current 27% Rotten Tomatoes score. I could actually see this performing closely to what another long gestating sequel accomplished over Memorial Day 2012 when Men in Black 3 earned $54 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $69 million for the four-day holiday frame.

Alice Through the Looking Glass opening weekend prediction: $53.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $67.7 million (Friday to Monday)

For my X-Men Apocalypse prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/18/x-men-apocalypse-box-office-prediction/